Hi, I think I've found a potential edge in the NBA. I do not have the tools to analyze it, but observation over the last 2 years has anecdotally provided a good record.
The theory is that teams in a relatively even matchup will tend to come back from blowout during the second half. There are several reasons this is logical:
1) The team which is way ahead will tend to rest its regulars first.
2) The team which is way ahead will often "let down", while the team behind will still play hard in an attempt to not be as embarrassed.
3) The team which is way ahead will never take a shot after the 24 second mark at the end of the game. They will just hold the ball, so the team behind will tend to always have the last possession.
This only applies to evenly matched teams (where the behind team is no more than a 6 point dog). I also don't like making these bets against the NBA's top 2 teams, or for one of the bottom few teams when they're on the road. I find that these bets are especially good if the losing team is at home.
So when do I bet?
- If it's halftime, one team is down 20 or more, and the 2nd half line is a small favorite for the behind team
- If it's in the 2nd half, the behind team is 23 or more down, and the line is within a few points of the game score. So, for example, the team is down 25 and the line is +22.5.
There are a few tweaks to this. For example, I more liberally bet the favorite if they are down this much (as they are more likely to come back), and I also more liberally bet the home team.
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