Dancer's Latest Columns

[redietz]

I'm surprised nobody's mentioned this, but I'll point out that Bob Dancer's last two columns (April 12th and 19th) at LVA have addressed two of the favorite topics of a couple of this forum's most prolific posters.

"Knowing When to Quit" and "Quitting When I'm Ahead" take dead aim at Rob and Alan's opining on the subjects.

I'm no big fan of Dancer's. I think he should do a disclaimer in each column saying something like, "My rebates, tier statuses, and cashback make my profiting much more likely than 99.999% of all video poker players. If you do what I do without those, you probably won't win." I'm just pointing out that his columns are in complete and utter disagreement with some people's cherished ideas.

One should read what Dancer says, what Rob and Alan say, and make up one's mind as to who is on more solid ground.

Articles:
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2016/0412.cfm
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2016/0419.cfm

[Alan Mendelson]

I read Dancer's latest column. I agree with him: you don't know that if you kept playing that you could win more. In fact, there were times I reached my initial win goal and then did win more because I initiated a rising stop loss.

Does Dancer comment about a rising stop loss? Does he know what it is?

[RS__]

I read Dancer's latest column. I agree with him: you don't know that if you kept playing that you could win more. In fact, there were times I reached my initial win goal and then did win more because I initiated a rising stop loss.

Does Dancer comment about a rising stop loss? Does he know what it is?

His reason for a stop loss / win goal is not what you think it is. He wins because of the mail, not because of some win/loss goal nonsense.

[Alan Mendelson]

His reason for a stop loss / win goal is not what you think it is. He wins because of the mail, not because of some win/loss goal nonsense.

I really don't believe that for one minute. I really don't believe he plays for the mailers and the bonuses unless he is getting some special deal. And he might be getting a special deal because certain casinos do pay him to promote their casinos.

For those of you who doubt Rob Singer's wins, I think you should also question Dancer's reports about winning drawings, cars, raffles, too.

But that's not what's important. I am not Bob Dancer and I don't get his mailers so his advice -- if indeed it is linked to mailers -- is meaningless to me. I need advice that is meaningful to me and having a rising stop loss, with a loss limit, is the best possible advice for me.

And with that said -- if you get Bob Dancer's mailers and you can play like Bob Dancer -- then by all means follow his advice.

[seemoreroyals]

I really don't believe that for one minute. I really don't believe he plays for the mailers and the bonuses unless he is getting some special deal. And he might be getting a special deal because certain casinos do pay him to promote their casinos.

For those of you who doubt Rob Singer's wins, I think you should also question Dancer's reports about winning drawings, cars, raffles, too.

But that's not what's important. I am not Bob Dancer and I don't get his mailers so his advice -- if indeed it is linked to mailers -- is meaningless to me. I need advice that is meaningful to me and having a rising stop loss, with a loss limit, is the best possible advice for me.

And with that said -- if you get Bob Dancer's mailers and you can play like Bob Dancer -- then by all means follow his advice.

Can you expand a little on the concept of rising stop loss? And do you combine it with tier credits so as to maximize tier credit bonuses? For instance no matter what we always get a minimum of 1000 tc's even if luck is less than average to get the 1000 tc bonus. But if we are holding out own or winning we will go for the 2500 tc's and the 5000 tc bonus unless one of us gets a big win. It makes it much easier to hit 7 stars. Last night for instance we were only at a little over 1600 tc's and my wife had a $3750 hand pay so we decided to call it a night. After paying off marker we put $2500 in the safe, had dinner, and enjoyed a free Carrie Underwood concert compliments of Horseshoe Bossier City. Had we not been up as much we would have played some more after the concert and went for the 2500 tc's and the 5000 tc bonus. In regards to rising stop loss would you have been willing to take a chance with say $500 of the $2500 you were ahead to try to hit something bigger? I realize you play at a higher level than us but I am trying to make sure I understand the concept of rising stop loss.

[Alan Mendelson]

seemoreroyals I don't play for tier credit bonuses and I have been criticized for stopping play when I was a few hundred points away from reaching a bonus such as 2,500 tier points or 5,000 tier points. When I reached my limit I leave regardless of how many points I might need for a bonus.

The concept of a rising stop loss comes from stock market investing and it is widely followed by stock investors.

I wrote about it on my website here: http://alanbestbuys.com/id428.html

Basically a rising stop loss lets you keep playing as you keep winning and you raise the point when you say I don't want to lose any more.

If you start with a win goal of $1,000 and then find yourself ahead $1,300 you might raise your stop loss to $1,150 and keep playing so you win more but if you start losing you stop at $1,150 to preserve the win you had.

[Bill Yung]

One should read what Dancer says, what Rob and Alan say, and make up one's mind as to who is on more solid ground.

This is gambling, after all. There is no solid ground. People can and may say whatever they want; and they do.

[Rob.Singer]

If someone just can't quit when they reach a pre-determined win goal then what Alan does is the next best thing--IF they're actually able to really quit at THAT point. My guess is it's very difficult for someone who just can't stop after hitting a win goal, to stop prior to losing it all regardless of the changes they make. I have no experience in this, so I could be wrong.

Dancer's doing his same old things in trying to keep the business rolling in. Not only does he keep on making things up on the go in order to keep writing his ridiculous articles that ran out of gas years ago, he continually counts on his dumb readers to believe--or ignore if you're looking at it from the other side--that for years he gets tons of offers, gifts, praise, cash stipends, and other types of "freebies" from the same Nv. casinos that he claims to be making all his money from. And then he WRITES about it! Who would believe such baloney? Oh wait a minute--mickey does, because it mirrors the nonsense that HE makes up.

[Bill Yung]

If someone just can't quit when they reach a pre-determined win goal then what Alan does is the next best thing--IF they're actually able to really quit at THAT point. My guess is it's very difficult for someone who just can't stop after hitting a win goal, to stop prior to losing it all regardless of the changes they make. I have no experience in this, so I could be wrong.

Dancer's doing his same old things in trying to keep the business rolling in. Not only does he keep on making things up on the go in order to keep writing his ridiculous articles that ran out of gas years ago, he continually counts on his dumb readers to believe--or ignore if you're looking at it from the other side--that for years he gets tons of offers, gifts, praise, cash stipends, and other types of "freebies" from the same Nv. casinos that he claims to be making all his money from. And then he WRITES about it! Who would believe such baloney? Oh wait a minute--mickey does, because it mirrors the nonsense that HE makes up.

How about a predetermined career win-goal? And then give it up, go have an ice-cream cone with your friends on the beach.

[seemoreroyals]

seemoreroyals I don't play for tier credit bonuses and I have been criticized for stopping play when I was a few hundred points away from reaching a bonus such as 2,500 tier points or 5,000 tier points. When I reached my limit I leave regardless of how many points I might need for a bonus.

The concept of a rising stop loss comes from stock market investing and it is widely followed by stock investors.

I wrote about it on my website here: http://alanbestbuys.com/id428.html

Basically a rising stop loss lets you keep playing as you keep winning and you raise the point when you say I don't want to lose any more.

If you start with a win goal of $1,000 and then find yourself ahead $1,300 you might raise your stop loss to $1,150 and keep playing so you win more but if you start losing you stop at $1,150 to preserve the win you had.

Thank you Alan for your explanation of rising stop loss. I have to admit though we do play for the bonus tier credits. We have reached 7 star card status for the last 5 years but when they raised the tier credit level requirement from 100,000 to 150,000 for us we need to take advantage of the bonuses to get there. One year we kind of messed around and did not get to the 150,000 until the last trip of the year. Since then we try to have it wrapped up by no later than September. There is really nothing to motivate us once we hit the 150,000 tc level. They need to have a massive overhaul of incentives to get you to play past the 150,000 level IMO.

[redietz]

I have to mention that applying stock market strategies and jargon to casino gambling is something that people have done for decades. It's not some magic bullet, and it may even be a negative because it suggests that what works in an open system is applicable to a closed system. Las Vegas has been remarkably efficient at siphoning off the bankrolls of those who bring stock market expertise to the gaming table.

Rob may actually agree with this, as Fezzik is a classic example.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have to mention that applying stock market strategies and jargon to casino gambling is something that people have done for decades. It's not some magic bullet, and it may even be a negative because it suggests that what works in an open system is applicable to a closed system. Las Vegas has been remarkably efficient at siphoning off the bankrolls of those who bring stock market expertise to the gaming table.

Rob may actually agree with this, as Fezzik is a classic example.

As my father told me: no one ever went broke selling a stock for a profit.

And I believe: you will never lose money walking out of a casino with a profit.

[redietz]

My old cross-country coach, Duke Demko, told us the same thing the first time we walked the course.

"Boys," he said, "you have to be ahead at the finish line to win."

Not real helpful advice.

[RS__]

As my father told me: no one ever went broke selling a stock for a profit.

And I believe: you will never lose money walking out of a casino with a profit.

One of the stupidest things I've read.

[Alan Mendelson]

One of the stupidest things I've read.

Enlighten me:

What was not logical about what my father said?

What was not logical about what I said?

As my father told me: no one ever went broke selling a stock for a profit.

And I believe: you will never lose money walking out of a casino with a profit.

[quahaug]

It isn't over till it's over. When you come to a fork in the road, take it. A nickle ain't worth a dime anymore. Alan, was Yogi Berra your father?

[RS__]

Enlighten me:

What was not logical about what my father said?

What was not logical about what I said?

The conclusion is based on a false premise -- as if you could always have a profit. It's more like "the easy part is winning, the hard part is walking away!" Now, my dad, grandpa, and great-grandpa haven't all been bankers...and neither have I....but I have gambled a decent amount, and know it isn't easy (or possible) to always show a profit during a session to quit.

Sorry but, your dad gave you some shitty advice.

[Alan Mendelson]

Okay RS__ now I understand. Typical WOV minutiae over analysis of a simple concept.

[jbjb]

The conclusion is based on a false premise -- as if you could always have a profit. It's more like "the easy part is winning, the hard part is walking away!" Now, my dad, grandpa, and great-grandpa haven't all been bankers...and neither have I....but I have gambled a decent amount, and know it isn't easy (or possible) to always show a profit during a session to quit.

Sorry but, your dad gave you some shitty advice.

Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out why casino don't use this advice and "quit when ahead."

[Alan Mendelson]

Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out why casino don't use this advice and "quit when ahead."

Do you have to ask? Casinos are always ahead. Individual gamblers are not. Even you self-annointed APs aren't ahead all the time (though you might claim to be). And you all-knowing APs are crowning yourselves with glory with your edges of 0.17% and think you are king of the world.

I deal with reality. Not with your self-bloated theoretical edges that you figure you all have with your back-slapping, group mind orgies.