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Thread: On/off casino play strategy to generate offers

  1. #41
    $10k coin in isn't a lot on VP. Even on quarters, that's only 8000 hands.

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    $10k coin in isn't a lot on VP. Even on quarters, that's only 8000 hands.
    When I read things like this it tells me a reality check is needed.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    When I read things like this it tells me a reality check is needed.
    Better start checking yourself then ;-)

    Also. Not suggesting playing them in one sitting.

  4. #44
    Here's the reality check: it's not the number of hands -- it's the gambling budget. The average Vegas visitor has a budget of $600.

    What video poker game is likely to give you 8,000 hands played at $1.25 per hand with a $600 budget?

    $600 is enough money to play 480 hands of 25-cent video poker without a win. If the player wins half of those hands (and a break even hand is called a "win") then the player gets 720 hands.

    How do you get 8,000 hands of 25-cent video poker out of a $600 gaming budget without "a lot of luck" which was my comment?

    On top of that, Dan told us his friend lost $1,400.

  5. #45
    You must expect to lose every hand then. I don't.

    In fact, I'm pretty certain I can make $600 last 99.73% of the time through 8000 hands on a one line 25¢ 9/6 JoB game!
    Last edited by jbjb; 05-11-2016 at 09:55 AM.

  6. #46
    I will say that it'll be a lot tougher on games like DDB, TDB, etc.

  7. #47
    At games like Jacks or Better and Bonus you'll win about two-thirds of the hands you play. A break even is considered a win.

    The main point is that Dan's friend admitted to losing $1400. That kills the plan for most.

  8. #48
    I think we need more specifics on game type, denomination, etc. The fact they had no record of him may have helped also.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    I think we need more specifics on game type, denomination, etc. The fact they had no record of him may have helped also.
    On his initial $10,000 coin in they did have a record and he had a players card. That's when he lost $1,400.

  10. #50
    Sure, but game type and denomination have a lot to do with these things as well. Also, how long did he play in all. Many questions need to be answered.

  11. #51
    I didn't read anything about Dan's friend playing the 10K through in one sitting or even in one trip. So the $600 per trip gaming budget doesn't necessarily apply, first of all. Second of all, if you have a 98% return game and play it through once, you wind up with $588. Keep taking $12 losses each of 20 rounds, deduct $50 for "bad luck," and you finish up with more than half your original budget and your 10K in fulfilled. Seems like a reasonable thing to attempt.

    No "good luck" needed.

    Now I just finished a 2 1/2 mile run in 90% humidity, so I'm concerned I'm mathematically fogged or something, so please set me straight if this is incorrect.

  12. #52
    This play was discussed elsewhere on the web in February 2015

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by daily_double View Post
    This play was discussed elsewhere on the web in February 2015
    Where was it discussed? I wonder if it was also Dan's friend or Dan's post?

    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I didn't read anything about Dan's friend playing the 10K through in one sitting or even in one trip. So the $600 per trip gaming budget doesn't necessarily apply, first of all. Second of all, if you have a 98% return game and play it through once, you wind up with $588. Keep taking $12 losses each of 20 rounds, deduct $50 for "bad luck," and you finish up with more than half your original budget and your 10K in fulfilled. Seems like a reasonable thing to attempt.

    No "good luck" needed.

    Now I just finished a 2 1/2 mile run in 90% humidity, so I'm concerned I'm mathematically fogged or something, so please set me straight if this is incorrect.
    Once again, Dan said his friend lost $1,400.

  14. #54
    I assume he played dollars (maybe an incorrect assumption), so his variance was relatively high. As mentioned earlier, it could be done with quarters in two shifts.

    He lost $1400 having extraordinarily "bad luck," if one believes the machines are random, and accrued enough free play and offers to offset the losses. If you're going to "have a gaming budget of $600" per trip -- which I guess is a euphemistic way of saying that you're blowing it -- this seems like a reasonable way to blow it on two trips plus.

    I get a kick out of the phrase "gaming budget." Quite a euphemism. Does anyone really feel like the tech of modern machine gaming or the "thrill" of table gaming deserve equal footing with a "movie budget" or a "travel budget?" Or should it just be called an "addiction budget" and lumped with other addictions?

  15. #55
    Do you think everyone who goes to Las Vegas is an addict, redietz?

    Is every conventioneer really an addict and using a Vegas convention site as a cover?

    Is every relative and friend attending a wedding in Vegas an addict, using the wedding as a cover?

    I suggest to you that the addicts already live in Vegas... and post about their "systems" and "advantage plays" on forums.

  16. #56
    I'm addicted to what I do. I love it.

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Do you think everyone who goes to Las Vegas is an addict, redietz?

    Is every conventioneer really an addict and using a Vegas convention site as a cover?

    Is every relative and friend attending a wedding in Vegas an addict, using the wedding as a cover?

    I suggest to you that the addicts already live in Vegas... and post about their "systems" and "advantage plays" on forums.
    I'm going to assume you're asking me legitimate questions and not making a straw man argument that these are my positions, Alan.

    No, I don't think everyone's an addict, and frankly, I think Americans are addicted to a number of worse things than gambling money.

    I'm not sure there's much difference between someone tithing to their church for their religious experiences or donating 10% of their income to casinos for gambling experiences (I'm sure this will get some feedback).

    What I find very strange is the fascination people have with short-term immediate outcomes while gambling when they know damn well the percentage returns of the games. There are numerous fine researchers investigating this, and anyone interested can head to the long history of gambling research and surveys.

    The social aspects of table gaming don't appeal to me, and the winning/losing of coin isn't real thrilling, so I have a tough time understanding the enjoyment. The non-social aspects of machine gaming seem pretty damn boring in the long term, and the tech just isn't all that, so I have a tough time understanding that enjoyment, too.

    Some people win, Alan. I know you have a real hard time with that, and have a certain disdain for it, but that doesn't make you better or automatically more fulfilled or more exciting than the people who win.

    Some people like torturing the casinos. More power to them.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    What I find very strange is the fascination people have with short-term immediate outcomes while gambling when they know damn well the percentage returns of the games.
    If that is what you truly believe then why aren't you blasting away at this scheme that Dan wrote about here? It's nothing more than a short term play because eventually the offers will disappear.

  19. #59
    I rarely log in here because of this nonsense. It Alan you are 1000000 percent wrong - it has ZERO TO DO WITH WIN OR LOSS it's all based on adt- how can you not understand this,not trying to be mean but you play a lot- you should be aware of how this occurs , feel free to pm me and I will give you exact matrix at almost any property you play at just not going to post publicly

  20. #60
    Unfortunately ADT means nothing to me. I can't use my ADT to buy groceries, or gas or dinner. This is why I don't play for comps. While I am a recreational player my goal is only to win. I don't play to lose. I also don't play for ADT.

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