This question involves the use of a promo chip which can be used for only one decision. If you win the bet, you lose the promo chip, but you are paid the full amount of the win.
Here's the question:
Are you better off using a $5 promo chip on the hard-6 bet, or on the YO (11) bet? Traditional payoffs are made on both bets.
What is your reasoning?
I'd go with whichever has the best expectation. James Grosjean lists the 11 as having an expectation of 83.33%. No listing for the hard six.
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ouponsbjfo.pdf (See the chart on page seven).
Personally, I'd play it on a single number on roulette as shown in that same chart.
Last edited by jbjb; 06-20-2016 at 11:57 PM.
11 will come out 2 out of 36 times = 1/18
the payout when it does come out is 15.
18 promo chips in yields 15 real chips 15/18 = 83.3333333% return because "in the long run" you get 15 real chips for every 18 bet (Yes lady volatility causes HUGE fluctuation in the short run.)
there is 1 way to make hard 6 (3,3) out of 36 1/36 win
there is 6 ways to make a 7 (1,6), (6,1),(2,5),(5,2),(3,4),4,3) 6/36 lose
there is 4 ways to make a soft 6 (1,5), (5,1),(2,4),(4,2) 4/36 lose
on any given roll 11 of the 36 have an outcome 1 of 11 outcome rolls win 1/11
payout when you win is 9
11 promo chips in yields 9 real chips out 9/11 = 81.81818181%
the math proves that betting on 11 has a slightly better long run outcome than betting on hard 6 with one decision promo chips that are taken away win or lose.
Any promo chips I've ever received could only be used for even money bets.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
There are casinos that offer promo chips which can be used for any bet. Currently at Caesars in Vegas there are vouchers which can be used for even money bets at craps and also the field. But if used on the field they still pay even money. I haven't seen the promo chips which can be used on any bet at Caesars for quite some time -- it's been years.Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie
Rincon offers promo chips but their rules for which bets varies all the time. I haven't played there in so long I don't know what the current rules are. But when I played there they could be used on any bet including the Fire Bet.
I agree with Alan. Even though a particular place may have restrictions on where you can use these things, they do screw up from time to time and it's nice to know what the best spot is for them when they do screw up.
Years ago Caesars gave me a $500 promo chip. When the point was 6 I increased my pass line from $25 to $100 and used the $500 promo as odds. Mathematically the best use. The shooter never made the six but rolled 5s for multiple times. Shoulda, woulda, coulda used it as a place 5 bet.
Now back to this question: yo or hard 6?
Yo is worth 15/18'ths or 16/18'ths, depending if they pay 15-to-1 or 16-for-1.
Hard 6 is worth 9/11'ths or 10/11'ths, depending on if they pay you 9-to-1 or 10-for-1.
Using RS___ numbers:
0.8333 or 0.8888Originally Posted by RS__
Frankly, I've never seen a casino that pays 10 for 1 for a hard 6. At every casino I've played at when I have $5 on the hard 6 and it hits I am paid $45.
0.8181 or .9090Originally Posted by RS__
I'm curious to know if anyone has considered the "life expectancy" difference between a one-roll bet on the Yo, and the active-till-it-loses bet on the hard-6?
With the Yo, there are 34 ways to lose and only two ways to win -- and that bet is always decided, or has a life expectancy, of one roll.
With the hard-6 there is only one way to win, but 10 ways to lose (7s plus soft-6s), and 25 rolls of the dice that are neutral so the bet stays up or alive.
If I were using the promo chips for time at the table, I wouldn't use it on a one-roll bet with a relatively small difference in expected value with a bet that could last many rolls.
The life expectancy for a hard 6 is 11/36 rolls (assuming it's gone after it wins)....wait no, I think I said that wrong. It should have 36/11 rolls for its life expectancy (3.27 rolls). At least, I think that's right.
Hard six pays 10 for 1 and yo pays 16 for 1 (15 for 1 at MGM properties, I believe). If your $5 hard six hits, you can ask for "$50 and down".
Playing it on the hard 6 would probably be more fun, at a small cost in EV. May actually have higher EV if you ask for "$50 and down" when it hits. They're probably only supposed to pay $45 and take the $5 promo chip....but if you can get away with it, why not?
That's still better than the 1 roll life expectancy of a bet on the Yo.Originally Posted by RS__
At Caesars Palace when my hard-6 hits I say $50 and down. That means I was paid $45 for my winning $5 bet and took down the original bet for a total of $50 ($45 pay + $5 original bet = $50). Now, is that $45 payoff on the $5 bet "9 for 1" or "9 to 1"?Originally Posted by RS__
I admit, I am always confused by this.
Technically speaking, they wouldn't be paying you $45 for winning and returning your $5 bet. They would be giving you $50 and they take your $5 bet. Not that there's any significant difference, you'll get the same amount either way.
10-for-1 basically means "we pay you 10, we take your 1". Think of it like regular stuff....go to the store and you can buy 2 apples for $1. That's 2-for-$1. They give you 2 apples for your $1....or "2 apples in place of $1".
In craps, they are basically giving you $50 for your $5....or, $50 in place of your $5.
X-for-1 is sort of like a trade.
9-to-1 would be where the $5 bet stays up and you get paid $45.
But, it's all the same thing at the end of the day. 10-for-1 and 9-to-1 are the same thing. You can take your "$50 and down" then put the $5 bet back up. Or you can do "$45 and still up" then choose to take your $5 bet down.
EDIT: It's stupid they have X-For-1 payouts...makes it confusing for players who haven't played before....although it certainly looks a bit more enticing to the player, "Ooooh, that pays 10!" instead of it paying "only" 9. Really, the same thing....but having a payout of 10 looks more appealing to a gambler than a payout of 9.
Last edited by RS__; 06-22-2016 at 07:49 AM.
I just saw a photo of the Caesars layouts. Hard 6 is 10 FOR 1. How does this change the answer to the original question?
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