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Thread: Bet what?

  1. #1
    If you start with 8 units, and want to end with 11, but then lose 3 units, what is your next optimal bet? The game has slightly negative expectancy.

  2. #2
    Optimal as in, what gives the player the highest chance of success (where success is ending with [at least] 11 units)? For that to be determined, one would need to know the frequency of payouts. If it's an even-money wager, that's just the frequency of wins and losses. If it's not even-money, or rather, has multiple different payouts, then the frequency for each payout would be needed (ie: VP is such a game).

    EDIT: I'm not saying I will figure it out or will try to, although I may, if it looks interesting enough.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Bill Yung View Post
    what is your next optimal bet? The game has slightly negative expectancy.
    This is an easy one for me. If the game is negative EV, then my optimal wager is zero.

  4. #4
    Uh oh, KJ, the voice of sanity. Watch yourself. Most places sanity is subjective. The keys to the asylum are held by who outnumbers whom.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    This is an easy one for me. If the game is negative EV, then my optimal wager is zero.
    Not too bright and you haven't learned. Wizard chirps about only making "good bets" (+EV of course) regardless if it's a loser, and he ended up desperately begging all you clowns for cash.

    Wise up.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Optimal as in, what gives the player the highest chance of success (where success is ending with [at least] 11 units)? For that to be determined, one would need to know the frequency of payouts. If it's an even-money wager, that's just the frequency of wins and losses. If it's not even-money, or rather, has multiple different payouts, then the frequency for each payout would be needed (ie: VP is such a game).

    EDIT: I'm not saying I will figure it out or will try to, although I may, if it looks interesting enough.
    The Wizard solved a specific case of the simple form of this most basic gambling question on his ODDS site years before he veered off into his, I dare say, "closed minded" Vegas site.

    He wrote that a betting progression provides the best chance of increasing a bankroll by one-third given even money-odds, and less-than-even win-odds. He didn't attempt , or at least include, rigorous proof. From his Vegas site, I gather that he didn't tie a lot of stuff together, or didn't see the connections.

    Bet 1/3 BR. If lose, then bet 2/3 BR. 1/4 chance of losing all; 3/4 chance of success. (Approx.)

    I posted up this tidbit for Sonny at www.BlackjackInfo.com , when that board was still for posting. He was the big voodoo moderator on betting progressions there. He immediately moved it to the Voodoo section.

    At the time, the Wizard emailed me his baccarat system to post up for him at BF's. I don't know if he belabored the point, but this sort of thinking showed up to an extent also in his betting system, and now and then in various forms on Vegas.

    More on the precise problem in hand, and where it fits in generally, later. Getting back to RS, this sort of question even in simple contexts can be reworked to well-approximately solve virtually all of the gambling math concepts, including Kelly and the mixed strategies of poker. It's not about being particularly smart so much as being consistently non-redundant with what you have to work.
    Last edited by Bill Yung; 06-29-2016 at 10:45 AM.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Wizard chirps about only making "good bets" (+EV of course) regardless if it's a loser, and he ended up desperately begging all you clowns for cash.
    And this has what to do with me?

    You can call me names if you like, if that makes you feel better. I'm not going to play your game. I am simply voicing my opinion based on my experience. I am a +EV guy and it has served me well. This is the 13th year I have supported myself solely from my AP play (I have not had a job since March 2004) and I am approaching the million dollar mark in earnings. While that is not "get rich" money it affords me a comfortable living. I have a nice 4 bedroom home in a gated community just outside of Vegas and a six figure (couple times over) bankroll and that all grew from a $4300 bankroll 13 years ago.

    So yes, maybe "I am not too bright" as you say, but I know what works for me.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 06-29-2016 at 12:23 PM.

  8. #8
    Kewlj what game(s) do you play that are +EV? You needn't reveal any "secret" advantage plays. I'd just like to know the games where you find +EV available. Thanks.

  9. #9
    KJ, you clearly are not up on your mutant lore. The Scarlet Witch, of the Avengers, has the ability to bend the laws of probability to her advantage.

    Rob has, according to his reports, exceeded the likely frequency of big hands by a remarkable margin. He espouses no need for positive expectation plays.

    KJ, meet Rob Singer. Rob, meet KJ. I'm sure you boys have much to discuss.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Kewlj what game(s) do you play that are +EV? You needn't reveal any "secret" advantage plays. I'd just like to know the games where you find +EV available. Thanks.
    I am a blackjack guy, Alan. A lowly card counter. What Grosjean refers to as salamanders in the AP world.

    And while I consider myself a professional blackjack player, just about 25% of my income does come from other AP methods. Mostly that is machine play and my partner now handles all of that now. I just focus on my blackjack.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    KJ, you clearly are not up on your mutant lore. The Scarlet Witch, of the Avengers, has the ability to bend the laws of probability to her advantage.

    Rob has, according to his reports, exceeded the likely frequency of big hands by a remarkable margin. He espouses no need for positive expectation plays.

    KJ, meet Rob Singer. Rob, meet KJ. I'm sure you boys have much to discuss.
    You are correct. I know little of Rob Singer. I have heard the name and know he had problems at WoV, before my time there, but I honestly didn't even know if he is a machine guy or a dice guy or what until I just googled him and was directed to an interview like 6 years ago.

    That's all fine, I am not here to dispute anyone's claims etc. I just simply voiced my opinion that for me if you are mentioning "optimal bet" and "negative EV" in the same breath, as the OP did, I am betting zero. If that makes me "not too bright" in Rob's eyes....that's fine.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 06-29-2016 at 01:38 PM.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I am a blackjack guy, Alan. A lowly card counter.
    Thanks. I recognize the value of card counting. Personally I hate the game and don't play it. My last experience with blackjack was when the Sahara had $1 games. I bought in for $20 and lost 20 hands in a row. I didn't make any stupid plays, either. I just wasn't lucky. I'd get dealt 20 and the dealer had 21. I'd get dealt 19 and the dealer had 20. It was like that. Not one winner in 20 hands.

    edited to add: but there was one time when I was at MGM after playing craps for 24+ hours straight and sat down at a $5 BJ table on my way to my room and turned $100 into something like $600. But I was color blind from the exhaustion and was "drunk" from exhaustion and I had no idea how I won so much.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 06-29-2016 at 02:45 PM.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I am a blackjack guy, Alan. A lowly card counter. What Grosjean refers to as salamanders in the AP world.

    And while I consider myself a professional blackjack player, just about 25% of my income does come from other AP methods. Mostly that is machine play and my partner now handles all of that now. I just focus on my blackjack.
    I played bj many moons ago at the local country club and broke the banker. Back then everyone wanted to be the banker and that's about the time Argosy magazine punlished weekly articles and I learned card counting. How many decks do they use now? I lost all interest in it after my times at the country club. Thanks.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by Bill Yung View Post
    If you start with 8 units, and want to end with 11, but then lose 3 units, what is your next optimal bet? The game has slightly negative expectancy.
    KJ...Yung asked for your next optimal bet...I don't believe zero qualifies as a bet.

    If you have 5 units, and need to reach 11, then how can you reach 11 units by not betting?
    Last edited by coach belly; 06-29-2016 at 04:20 PM.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    You are correct. I know little of Rob Singer. I have heard the name and know he had problems at WoV, before my time there, but I honestly didn't even know if he is a machine guy or a dice guy or what until I just googled him and was directed to an interview like 6 years ago.

    That's all fine, I am not here to dispute anyone's claims etc. I just simply voiced my opinion that for me if you are mentioning "optimal bet" and "negative EV" in the same breath, as the OP did, I am betting zero. If that makes me "not too bright" in Rob's eyes....that's fine.
    It's not about how bright anyone is. It's about the nonsense surrounding +EV betting means "winner" and -EV betting means "loser". When I started playing vp as a pro, most of the games I used from $1 thru $100 were either over 100% on their own or I got them there with the slot club fluff. But after 2-3 years most pat tables got cut around Nevada and I switched to all -EV games, and many times with not using a card. My results were very consistent for ten years.

    That's why the wizard's by-line is ludicrous, and why the so-called "long-term" is nothing more than an "AP" state-of-mind. We all only and always play in short-term bursts. The long-term only applies to the machines, the tables, and the machines.

  16. #16
    FWIW, I agree with you, KJ. With such a limited example, there's no answer other than pure luck. I say this after taking $15 in freeplay and playing 1,2, and 5 credits using a structured strategy on 25c VP and had 6 draws at small pairs that never developed-in fact I only had a push on two hands. I've never had this happen before.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I am a blackjack guy, Alan. A lowly card counter. What Grosjean refers to as salamanders in the AP world.

    And while I consider myself a professional blackjack player, just about 25% of my income does come from other AP methods. Mostly that is machine play and my partner now handles all of that now. I just focus on my blackjack.
    I learned how to card count in 2000.

    However, I found it impossible to make any kind of living from it at that point. The casinos were all too wise to it, especially by the time 2005 or so rolled around.

    Eventually I just gave up blackjack, not wanting to get banned everywhere.

    I am curious how you have managed to make a living at blackjack in the post-2000 Vegas casino world.

    If you don't want to answer publicly, you can also answer privately. I am the owner of this site, and I will keep your answer in confidence.

    If you don't want to answer at all, that's also okay, but I'm genuinely curious.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by Bill Yung View Post
    If you start with 8 units, and want to end with 11, but then lose 3 units, what is your next optimal bet? The game has slightly negative expectancy.
    I assuming you can't rebuy.

    Without calculating anything, I would say that the smartest play would be betting 2 units next. This would leave you withing striking distance of the 11 by betting 4 the next hand if you win, and won't leave you crippled (you'd be down to 3) if you lost.

    Given that the game has slight negative expectation, you want to get to 11 in as few hands as possible, while also keeping variance at its least while doing so. Since you can't get to 11 with one bet (as you are at 5 according to this scenario), the quickest way to 11 is two hands. So the quickest way to 11 while keeping variance at its minimum is betting 2, then 4 if it wins.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #19
    After thinking about this for a few minutes.....I'm really not sure how to go about trying to calculate the optimal strategy. It's kind of frustrating.

    Initially, I was thinking, determine the probability of a win when you have 10 units and betting 1 unit at that point (say, 49.5%). Then do the same for a BR of 9 and wagering 1 unit...then BR of 9 and wagering 2 units. Once you know the probability of success once you hit 9 units, then you determine whether it's smarter to wager 1, 2, or 3 units with a BR of 8. Then do the same thing for a BR of 7, then BR of 6, and finally a BR of 5. Unfortunately, kinda threw me for a loop (literally?), since you wouldn't know the probability of success when having a 9 unit BR wagering 2 units, since if you lose (50.5% of the time, for example), you still have a BR of 7 leftover, with the chance of success again. Since you would need to know the probability of success on a BR of 9 in order to determine the optimal wager when you have a BR of 7....but that can't be done until you figure out the probability of success when you have a BR of 7....it turns into a recursive problem (which I don't feel like solving or attempting to solve right now) or at least a problem in which it has to be solved by brute force simulation (something else I don't feel like trying to do).

    In other words, you need to know the optimal wager on a 9 unit BR to figure out the optimal wager on a 7 unit BR, and you'd need to know the optimal wager on a 7 unit BR to figure out the optimal wager on a 9 unit BR. Same goes for many other 2 BR combinations.


    Perhaps I'm over thinking it and there's a simpler solution to this problem,,,,,but right now, I'm not seeing it. Dan Druff?

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I assuming you can't rebuy.

    Without calculating anything, I would say that the smartest play would be betting 2 units next. This would leave you withing striking distance of the 11 by betting 4 the next hand if you win, and won't leave you crippled (you'd be down to 3) if you lost.

    Given that the game has slight negative expectation, you want to get to 11 in as few hands as possible, while also keeping variance at its least while doing so. Since you can't get to 11 with one bet (as you are at 5 according to this scenario), the quickest way to 11 is two hands. So the quickest way to 11 while keeping variance at its minimum is betting 2, then 4 if it wins.
    A few times, the Wizard and his posters have stated that in an even game the chance to make X dollars with Y dollars to start is less than or equal to Y/(Y+X). Bear in mind that X is a specific amount which indicates a specific chance of success for only X. We're not going X amount and/or some amount beyond X.

    Eg, if start with Y=$2,000, then the chance of a profit X=$500 is 4/5. In other words, $2,000 is four-fifths of the way to the end-result of $2,500. All things being equal, the four-fifths is then the self-evident chance of success. Look at the start and end -amounts, rather than the profit per se. If start with 3 units to seek 4, then chance of success is 3/4. If start with 3 units to seek 12, then chance of success is 3/12 = 1/4.

    The (start amount)/(end amount) way of looking at this is the maximal chance of success here. Maximal because we could still screw it up in an even game by trying for an amount beyond the end-amount. Winning more than the set end-amount hurts the overall chance for success when lose on the end. And the lost overage could have been applied to the next bet when lose on the end.

    All of this, of course, doesn't tell us how to much to bet. As Dan pointed out (, besides not over betting on the end,) it's best to make the fewest number of bets in a negative-expectation game. Intuitively, flat betting tiny amounts many times will certainly invoke the subpar mean-value of such a game, and hence lead to ruin.

    Eg, if you want to double your money at the EZ Baccarat table, then bet it all once on banker. On the other hand, if you want to spend a lot of time at the table, then flat bet the minimum amount over and over, and sit out a bunch of hands in-between. Conceivably, you could also double your money, and beyond, before going broke with the latter approach, but the chance of success at some point is far lower.

    The two cases for betting with best chances of success are:

    1) A partial bet of the start-amount may make it to the end-amount. Make the partial bet. Take the bull by the horns.

    2) End-amount is more than double the start-amount. Parlay the start-amount until only a partial bet is required to make the end-amount.

    In the case of getting to 11 units with 5 units, bet the 5 units. If win, bet 1 unit. If say lose from the 10 units to 9, 7, and 3, then parlay the 3 units to 6, and then bet 5 units again.

    Another example. Start with 8 units to make 9. Lose 1, 2, and 4 units in succession - trying to pin down the 9 units on each bet - until down to 1 unit. Then attempt to parlay the 1 unit back up into striking range.

    It's not too difficult to verify some of the optimal shorter outcomes when we first calculate the (maximal) chance of success.

    More intricate stuff to follow, as time permits.

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