To summarize. The best way to 11 units on the end is from 10. And the best way to 10 units not on the end is from 5. All things balanced, no indirectness.
To summarize. The best way to 11 units on the end is from 10. And the best way to 10 units not on the end is from 5. All things balanced, no indirectness.
I can't agree with the above.Originally Posted by Bill Yung
If you're at 5 units and want to get 11, betting all 5 (and then subsequently betting 1) seems like a mistake, because losing that bet will break you (meaning you have a 0% chance of success), yet winning it will still leave you short of the goal.
To me it would seem that betting 2 units would be optimal, as it leaves you with a still-workable 3 units if you lose, yet leaves you within striking distance of 11 for your next bet if you win. Furthermore, it leaves you to where losing the NEXT bet (provided you win the 2-unit bet) is also not a must-win situation.
Here's what I would do:
Start with 5.
Bet 2.
IF WIN (now 7), BET 4.
---> IF WIN (now 11), you are DONE.
---> IF LOSE (now 3), BET 3.
--------> IF LOSE, you are broke.
--------> IF WIN (now 6), BET 5
--------------> IF WIN (now 11), you are DONE.
--------------> IF LOSE (now 1), BET 1, then 2, then 4, then 3, in a last-ditch attempt to get to 11.
If you LOSE the first bet (bringing you down to 3), then BET 3 (when at 3) as shown above.
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If someone follows "math" and is not a hypocrite there is only one answer:Originally Posted by Bill Yung
Since you are at a negative expectation game you want to minimize your betting since each bet is at a disadvantage. So you would bet all remaining 5 credits. If you lose you go home. If you win you have ten credits and the next bet is 1 credit. Again, you want to make the minimum number of bets since you have no advantage.
If you disagree with this then you must also believe in win goals and loss limits at negative expectation games.
I was just waiting for someone to bring up "win goals and loss limits at negative expectation games".Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
You're a mystery, in a good way, Alan.
@Dan, thanks for your continued input.
The problem with near-even win-odds is the wins and losses tend to even out. And, there could be a lot of going back and forth between the intermediate bet-amounts before the overall attempt is decided. In a purely random game, the going back and forth makes no difference, with no more commissions or likelihood of failure building up. But not here.
Let's double from 1.25 units to 2.5, and then to 5. Should the parlay not be allowed to continue at full strength to 10 units; instead of being interrupted at 5 by an on-the-end size bet not on the end? If not, then should we get off the "parlay train" before reaching even 5 units, or then 2.5? That would be a different sort of betting progression, though still a progression.
No Bill there's only one answer to this problem if you believe in the math: bet all 5 units. If you win then bet one. If you have no advantage (and the problem says you don't) this is your only option. The math says so. Hypocrisy is not allowed.
It depends what "optimal" is for the player -- is optimal "lose the least EV" or "highest chance of success". I've played promotions where you'd want to make the lower EV move because it increases variance (maybe holding JQK over JJ).
If optimal means to lose the least, then your next bet should be 0.
The question is specific. What is the optimal bet to reach 11. A zero bet must be excluded.
Yes, the answer is 5 units.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Dan and I differ only slightly in strategies, especially considering how far away we are from breaking our units into pennies, and betting the pennies. So far away as to be almost playing the even form of this game, ie, with little loss to a moderate amount of game negativity. Hence, it's NOT possible to eye-ball our difference. Clear explanations are required.
First, the optimal strategy from 5 units to 10 would be to just double the 5. That we're headed for 11 units doesn't change this. We would then double the 5.5 units had we started with that. That we're headed for 9 units would properly allow us the 1-unit cushion, as it should because we're in a better spot to succeed then.
Second, suppose that we bet 1 unit instead of the 5, that we switch the bet of 1 on the end with the bet of 5 up front. A double loss/win ends in success/failure respective, same as betting the 5 units first. The difference in strategies happens when one loss and one win in the two orders which happen. Betting the 5 units first, a loss to begin results in 0; and a win to begin results in 9. Betting the 1 unit first, a loss results in 4 which is doubled and won to 8; and a win results in 6 of which 5 are then lost down to 1. Note that we still have 9 units in either case. The difference is that the 1 unit bet has courses of action left each of which is further from the objective of 11. More steps means more negative result. The more we cushion ourselves, the more split-off units and steps to the goal. Next, we'll be changing our 1/8 split into many 2/7's.
On-the-end bets are the best way to the goal, while parlay bets are the best way to the on-the-end bets. Considering that we must make steps, and the two sorts of steps here, to the goal, this approach is optimal. (I hope no one has to simulate something here. Simulation is the best way to not know what you don't understand. The so-called AP's crutch. Everything was simulated at WoV. No room for any argument.)
I hope you will forgive me for bumping this year old thread. I haven't logged on for a year and wanted to answer your questions, that where posted after my last visit.Originally Posted by Dan DruffI learned how to card count in 2000.Originally Posted by kewlJ
However, I found it impossible to make any kind of living from it at that point. The casinos were all too wise to it, especially by the time 2005 or so rolled around.
Eventually I just gave up blackjack, not wanting to get banned everywhere.
I am curious how you have managed to make a living at blackjack in the post-2000 Vegas casino world.
If you don't want to answer publicly, you can also answer privately. I am the owner of this site, and I will keep your answer in confidence.
If you don't want to answer at all, that's also okay, but I'm genuinely curious.
I began my Blackjack card counting career in early 2004, Dan Druff, so the time frame is pretty much the same as yours.
First, the mathematics of card counting are basically the same today as when I started.....and really basically the same as decades earlier. Sure bigger house edge to overcome because casinos got greedy with the h17 and such. That just means you have to bet more aggressively. Larger spreads, even more important ramp up quicker. None of that old stuff from Wong's era where your small or waiting bet is 1 unit and you ramp up 1 unit per true count, where as your max bet gets out a TC of +8, or +10, which rarely occurs. I ramp up quickly, getting my max bet out by TC +3 or +4 (depending on game). And this is a biggie...in today's world you can not play all. You have to find a way to escape at least some of the negative counts. I exit aggressively on negative counts. Why do I want to play through a complete negative shoe, when there are plenty of other games near by?
But anyway, most of what you were inquiring about concerns heat/countermeasures in today's BJ world. I survive by doing two things. 1.) Identifying level that are better tolerated, or within the casino's comfort levels. For the most part this is a max bet of below $500. At some of the smaller "local" type casino's this can be as low as $300. If you play during busy times, like weekend nights or specifically big fight/event weekends....you can go a bit higher....playing in the shadows of other bigger bettor. You are not going to get rich playing those levels, but you can make a comfortable living and that is my goal. I have averaged upper 5 figures from BJ for the last 8 years (plus a bit more from some supplemental stuff).
2.) is that I play a large rotation of stores, with short sessions, specifically exiting at the shuffle after showing bet spread and max bet. The goal isn't to fly under the radar, as it used to be 15-20 years ago. As you noted, casino's and pit/surveillance are wise to card counting. So my goal is not to trick them or fly under the radar. My goal is to play within their comfort level. Not create a problem that they have to answer for. Not create a situation where they have to back me off. believe me, they don't want to publicly do that.
Identifying and playing within better tolerated levels and playing short sessions, with a large rotation of casinos, so as I don't see the same dealers and pit but once or twice a month, has worked so far. I have some specific tricks (I guess is the word) for entering and exiting a game while drawing minimal attention, that I am not going to get into. Nothing groundbreaking...just common sense stuff. I have just revealed these specifics enough on other sites....no need to do more.
Amazing. There's still people attached to WoV who think others will believe in their fantasy world claims that counting cards in BJ is still something they can slip by casino managers, multi-deck shoes, and continuous shuffle shoes. What's even more interesting is why some hot-shot with a "partner" would ever want to blab about all his so-called tricks-of-the-trade to a bunch of forum stiffs.
The bs always starts at WoV.
Even more weird is why some hot-shot would ever want to blab about all his so-called tricks-of-the-vp-trade to a bunch of forum stiffs.
I mean, really, martingale video poker as more credible than card counting? Rob, do you ever read what you write?
You can't spell roBSinger without BS (I lifted that one from Steve Spurrier.)
redietz, while it's clear I've gotten under your skin--and it does make me tingle with delight--you nor anyone else here knows my play strategy.
Maybe I should reconsider, and make it part of my "PR Package". Hahahahaha!!!
Rob, you misunderstand. I love you, baby. You do all the classic paranormal quack stuff. I don't mean that in a bad way -- I wouldn't even be on this forum if the relationship between you and Alan wasn't classic Uri Geller/SRI stuff. No stats, Rube Goldberg alleged system nobody else can understand, attaching yourself to media people unable or unqualified to investigate your claims, evidence of success all anecdotal, spewing venom at all naysayers, attributing winning to subjective values or behaviors (discipline, creativity, will as opposed to actual math or demonstrated expertise), isolation from everyone else in your field of alleged expertise, no formal professional connections with others who have credentials or professional standing in the field. And you never address any of the above when presented with them. I mean, holy hell, you fill out the entire quack checklist. You're actually the single best example of a paranormal claimant I have ever seen.Originally Posted by Rob.Singerredietz, while it's clear I've gotten under your skin--and it does make me tingle with delight--you nor anyone else here knows my play strategy.
Maybe I should reconsider, and make it part of my "PR Package". Hahahahaha!!!
So don't misconstrue what I'm saying. I love the fact you exist. If I wrote a paper about someone like you without the evidence of this forum, people would claim that I invented you for the sake of the paper. I love you, man. You're too good to be true.
P.S. I left out the classic quack stuff about being a beleaguered champion of the truth against an evil bureaucracy (the APs and your unnamed "critics") and narcissism. Sorry about that. The paper would be too long.
Last edited by redietz; 07-23-2017 at 08:53 AM.
I am not attached to WoV in any way.Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I don't play CSM (except one play where we get $25 weekly MP's and free bets that make it +EV).
Multi-deck shoe games are not a deterrent. I have played shoe games since day 1 of my career. It is actually my preferred game of choice.
10 years ago, when I was only 3 years into my career, I joined a blackjack forum, since closed. Many players ranging from recreational to professional, shared their knowledge and experiences with me. This is where you really pick up things that make a difference, not from books. And it is no coincidence that this is the point that my results improved dramatically, my BR grew, allowing me to move up in stakes and my career really took off.
I am not a math "geeky" type guy, nor do I do anything new and groundbreaking. Everything I do is learned and taken from someone else. So my way of "giving back" is to share my experiences along this journey in the hopes of helping other newer players, just as others did for me a decade before. And I have done so on several forums for a decade now. I have shared both good and bad experiences and results.....what I sometimes refer to as "the good, the bad and the ugly".
No there isn't any real benefit to me doing so, other than the satisfaction of knowing I helped a few young aspiring card counters, just as others did for me a decade ago. As, a matter of fact, there are several card counter AP that told me that they were inspired and moved to Vegas because of my sharing my journey. One, I sold one of my homes to several years ago. That is direct competition and detrimental to me and my career. But I still share my experiences just as others did for me and will as long as I can.
And "helping" doesn't necessarily mean encouraging anyone to pursue card counting and follow in my footsteps. Sometimes sharing some of the negatives, the swings, the heat, the backoffs, the 4 different 6 month losing periods that I have endured, the year that my results were less than 1/3 of expectation, roughly 55 grand below expectation and barely above minimum wage, helps these young guys see that card counting and AP isn't for them. It isn't the road to riches they saw in the movies. So that is why I "blab" about my experiences and journey.
But as I said, you are free to believe anything you like. You can believe you will sail off the edge of the earth if it makes you happy.
Yeah right. Care to prove your claims? EVERYBODY who regularly counts cards at any BJ table gets into the facial recognition system at all casinos. I just checked and had that confirmed to me by an exec at Wynn. There's no way you're able to slip past that anywhere, esp. if your story has you winning a good amount over 8 or more years around LV.
Pure BS.
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