Bet what? #4

[Bill Yung]

It's official.

Bet what to comfortably remain in the gambling short term of negative games, where minor mistakes are of little to no consequence, and the larger variances will continue to bail you out? Treading water by allowing for the full range of possibilities while minimizing the downside.

Would such be easier, the same, or harder than just beating a negative game in the long term?


P.S. If you say this is impossible, or the square root of pi people in a boat, you'll make me cry.

[slingshot]

It's official.

Bet what to comfortably remain in the gambling short term of negative games, where minor mistakes are of little to no consequence, and the larger variances will continue to bail you out? Treading water by allowing for the full range of possibilities while minimizing the downside.

Would such be easier, the same, or harder than just beating a negative game in the long term?


P.S. If you say this is impossible, or the square root of pi people in a boat, you'll make me cry.

Sorry, truth is I haven't enough math skills to even begin to answer.

[Alan Mendelson]

In craps, I would make the minimum bet on the pass line without odds. This expected result would be the same playing short term and long term.

[Bill Yung]

Sorry, truth is I haven't enough math skills to even begin to answer.

Strictly speaking, nor was Einstein any good at math. He did a lot of simple "thought experiments", and made the obvious conclusions then which reinvented much of the math, and not only the math of physics. Thought experiment in the sense that pondering the ways of fantasy is as good or better than thinking about the nature of reality.

Anyway, there are now so many areas and branches of math that it's, as a whole, becoming an untenable investigative tool in the other sciences. We became so smart that we can no longer think. The eventual fate of Einstein, himself, with his widespread laments in later life that he was left with a bunch of insoluble (math) problems.

[Bill Yung]

This expected result would be the same playing short term and long term.

To add on.

Technically speaking, the variance, itself, doesn't change or come and go. The math calculation, itself, is the same for any number of bets and other factors. Ie, it's still a matter of the math even in the very short term. Well, almost.

What seems to distort the notion that variance doesn't apply in the short term is the fact that very short-term outcomes have high-enough variances with respect to busting out. You can do all sorts of elegant calculations about waves on various stretches of the ocean, but none of those will accurately apply to what happens in the few feet before the waves hit the breaker or shore.