Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 24

Thread: Quick Note on Election Odds

  1. #1
    I don't know if many of you followed the odds, but in the 72 hours leading to election day, offshore Clinton odds went from -225 or so up to -600 and above. It was a deluge of money on Clinton. It was fast and across the board. It was so fast and coordinated that I had no chance to arbitrage.

    A friend of mine snagged a -200 about three months ago and asked if he should keep it or hedge when it went to -350 about two months ago. I said just keep it. Well, the odds went back down afterwards, so it looked as if he had missed a fine arbitrage opportunity due to my advice, but then we've had this explosion of Clinton money over the weekend, and he had auto-profit galore.

  2. #2
    This is the first time that offshores have gotten the American election wrong. British books have been wrong before, but not the offshores.

    Another trend held up, however: the taller American candidate always wins. Call it what you will -- it's the most accurate election forecaster, but nobody wants to acknowledge it.

    White evangelicals carried the election for the thrice married owner of gambling establishments who, by the way, couldn't get a license for a casino in Nevada. He had too many issues.

    The insanity has already begun. Hope you don't own any stocks. You're going to be 5% or thereabouts poorer tomorrow.

  3. #3
    If you didn't sell yesterday do not sell today.
    Take off that stupid mask you big baby.

  4. #4
    Just a reminder of the people who promised to leave if Trump wins.


    1) Barbara Streisand

    2) Bryan Cranston

    3) Miley Cyrus

    4) Lena Dunham

    5) Amy Schumer

    6) Jon Steward

    7) Cher

    8) Chelsea Handler

    9) Samuel L. Jackson

    10) Whoopi Goldberg

    11) Neve Campbell

    12) Keegan Michael Key

    13) George Lopez

    14) Ne-Yo

    15) REV. AL SHARPTON

    16) Raven Symone

    17) Barry Diller

    18) Chole Sevigny

    19) Omari Hardwick

    20) RUTH BADER GINSBURG

    21) Natasha Lyonne

    22) Spike Lee

    23) Amber Rose

    24) redietz

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    The insanity has already begun. Hope you don't own any stocks. You're going to be 5% or thereabouts poorer tomorrow.
    The only insanity that already began on wall street was the immediate reaction of the left who are so far out of touch they actually believed their own bull crap and panicked.

    Hope you do own stocks. Today's results will be only one of many more prosperous days to come.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    A friend of mine snagged a -200 about three months ago and asked if he should keep it or hedge when it went to -350 about two months ago. I said just keep it. Well, the odds went back down afterwards, so it looked as if he had missed a fine arbitrage opportunity due to my advice, but then we've had this explosion of Clinton money over the weekend, and he had auto-profit galore.
    I hope your friend had a "auto-sell" order along with his "auto-profit" before the results came in.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by FABismonte View Post
    I hope your friend had a "auto-sell" order along with his "auto-profit" before the results came in.
    An auto-profit (or arbitrage in normal non-gambling lingo) means he laid -200 and bought at +375 and +400, ergo auto-profit (he couldn't lose money). So he laid, for example, $200 to win each $100 on Clinton months ago, basically, then risked $100 each on Trump, some at +375 and some at +400. For each $100 he risked, he won either $375 or $400.

    So yes, he made money without risking money. That's what sports bettors mean when referring to "auto-profit" with moneylines.

    I missed the sweet spots and didn't win anything, except dinner from a sociologist. I took Trump Over 44% of the popular vote.
    Last edited by redietz; 11-09-2016 at 10:55 AM.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Just a reminder of the people who promised to leave if Trump wins.


    1) Barbara Streisand

    2) Bryan Cranston

    3) Miley Cyrus

    4) Lena Dunham

    5) Amy Schumer

    6) Jon Steward

    7) Cher

    8) Chelsea Handler

    9) Samuel L. Jackson

    10) Whoopi Goldberg

    11) Neve Campbell

    12) Keegan Michael Key

    13) George Lopez

    14) Ne-Yo

    15) REV. AL SHARPTON

    16) Raven Symone

    17) Barry Diller

    18) Chole Sevigny

    19) Omari Hardwick

    20) RUTH BADER GINSBURG

    21) Natasha Lyonne

    22) Spike Lee

    23) Amber Rose

    24) redietz

    Blackhole, do you ever get anything even halfway right? I think Trump's a narcissistic misogynist brat, but I don't say that like it's a bad thing.

    I benefit from a Trump presidency. It was clear from the start that I'd benefit from a Trump win, especially with Christie as his transition team leader. But I didn't vote for either candidate. I despise Clinton, which I've said here and elsewhere. I generally use the word "despise" with Hillary Clinton.

    Why didn't I vote for Trump if it was beneficial to me? Because voting for people based on some narrow self interest is what children do.

  9. #9
    A no vote was as good as a vote for Trump. Thanks

    By the way ... your name on the bottom of the list was only a funny.

  10. #10
    I love how most of the celebrities and sports figures are crying like the little bitches they are.

  11. #11
    I CANNOT wait to hear what Rob has to say about this election!!

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    A no vote was as good as a vote for Trump. Thanks

    By the way ... your name on the bottom of the list was only a funny.
    No, blackhole, unless the president is determined by popular vote, not voting for either was not the same as a vote for Trump. I'm a resident of Tennessee. If I voted 10,000 times, it wasn't going to affect anything. Actually, the genius chick (I can say misogynistic stuff now that Trump's in office) who writes for Parade magazine went into the whole "if I don't vote for x, is that the same as voting for y" scenarios last week in her column.

  13. #13
    I really missed an opportunity with the numbers swings, but I didn't want to tie up a boatload of money during football season, so I'll have to live with it. In a span of four months, one could have bought low (-200) on Clinton, then bought high on Trump (+300 or so), then bought low on Clinton again (-200 and -220s), then bought high on Trump at the end (+400).

    If you had a lot of cash to lay out offshore, you made a killing.

  14. #14
    Red-what is the safety level of the offshores. I don't bet with them but I did have a friend on who's behalf I had to intervene when they refused to pay him. And it was one of the big "name brands".

  15. #15
    Dow just hit a new all time high.

    redietz, can I hire you to take control of my portfolio? Your a fn financial genius who must have your own personal crystal ball.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Red-what is the safety level of the offshores. I don't bet with them but I did have a friend on who's behalf I had to intervene when they refused to pay him. And it was one of the big "name brands".
    Contact his congressman or senator. I'm sure they will contact the DOJ and investigate the gaming regulator who licensed the site, and make certain he gets paid.

  17. #17
    I am happy to travel to costa rica or whatever unregulated island to further investigate.

  18. #18
    Should you used win goals/stop losses in the financial markets as well?

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I am happy to travel to costa rica or whatever unregulated island to further investigate.
    It's obvious you have no idea the type of people you're dealing with.

  20. #20
    The only issue I have ever had with the offshores was about 10 years ago when the owner of Millennium Sports, who had been on CNN and British TV in the weeks prior to argue for legalization of sports betting, saying he wanted to pay US taxes, touched down with some of his people in Texas while enroute to Europe. The feds took everybody into custody and took his laptops and such. Meanwhile, it appeared some kind of quid pro quo had been worked out, because a group of his lieutenants back at the sports book, basically grabbed all of their cash from the local banks, packed the equipment (computers and such) up from a leased property, and disappeared. It was millions, although I think 20-some million sticks in my head.

    Millennium was an umbrella for a network of sports books, including the one where I had some money. I think it was called Wagermall, which gave you access to multiple lines. Not all of their books had identical lines.

    Bottom line. The guy had angered the US with his high profile "I want to be legal" spiel on television. I lost about 10K. I was fortunate it was off season from football. I talked to someone with a friend who lost 250K or thereabouts. I don't think that the original warrant was from Texas, but that's another story.

    Anyway, that's the only time, in 20 years, I've had any issues. Everyone else has paid. I've been shut down as persona non grata on occasion, but not without being paid. Pinnacle, the best of the offshores, made a deal to voluntarily withdraw from the US market. If you have friends in Canada or the UK, I'd recommend getting a Pinnacle account.

    With Christie paving Trump's transition team, we're hoping good things happen. Christie has pushed for years to get sports betting legalized in New Jersey, and he tried to jam it through two years ago, but courts vetoed his authority to do so.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Note to college students: reporter jobs are dying out.
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Movies, Media, and Television
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 07-16-2017, 02:03 AM
  2. About accepting the election results
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Whatever's On Your Mind
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 10-30-2016, 10:42 AM
  3. Quick Note on Trump
    By redietz in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 09-24-2016, 02:46 PM
  4. Video Poker Note
    By redietz in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 266
    Last Post: 02-04-2016, 03:05 PM
  5. Quick TR 4/9/15
    By redpudding in forum California/Western US Casinos
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 04-12-2015, 09:05 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •