lack of topics, too few members

[blackhole]

I think blackhole is jealous because he can't figure out how to sustainably win at gambling (AP). Instead of being an asshole, you could probably learn a thing or two if you read more and ranted less.

Imagine that, another self-proclaimed AP spewing some gambling wisdom to the disabled. Thanks for the advice champ.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have a question: if the APs can have a profit from gambling, why can't Rob Singer and his AP method?

[redietz]

The idea that a game of opinion can't be beaten (especially when juice is 4% or less) is seriously flawed. Sports handicappers have clients. They get monitored. Back in the 80's and 90's, the McCusker Report published ongoing multi-year records for handicappers. I've said this to blackhole before. Evidently he didn't bother to track down McCusker Reports.

Sports handicapping is a 99% bullshit business, but there is a 1%. Billy Walters doesn't populate his round tables with people who haven't won.

Blackhole reminds me of the dude who looks around his local playground and doesn't see any 92% free throw shooters and can't come close to making 92% free throws himself, so draws the somewhat logical conclusion that 92% free throw shooters don't exist. The only way he's going to believe in 92% free throw shooters is to get taken to the cleaners by someone who bets him they can make 92% of their free throws.

[jbjb]

I have a question: if the APs can have a profit from gambling, why can't Rob Singer and his AP method?

Simple answer. He doesn't have an AP method.

In fact, his "strategy" is more negative EV than normal thanks to his "special plays."

And Alan, were not talking about one off casino visits. We're talking about complete overall play. His method will ultimately grind him, and anyone else that plays it, down to nothing.

He can come here and act like a tough guy all he wants, but the facts are the facts.

[regnis]

Blackhole has a hard on for me for some reason and I don't know why. Before he was mad because I asked if anyone was familiar with the foreign holdings reporting rules. Now he's mad because I answered Redietz's question about the new reporting rules for horse betting. I'll reiterate that I'm not here to argue or fight with anonymous posters. I'm just here for a little entertainment and maybe to gain a little knowledge.

But FYI Blackhole, I have been playing horses for over 50 years now, and quite profitably, and it was my sole source of income many years when I didn't want the stress and aggravation of my other job. I make no claims of being an AP or of anything other than being an astute and experienced horse player. If that bothers you, then spend the 6 or 8 hours a day studying that I do and see if that will help your results.

[Alan Mendelson]

Simple answer. He doesn't have an AP method.

I have also questioned his wins, and his claims about many jackpots with few hands played. But I am also familiar with his concept of quitting when ahead. And as I've said many times, in nearly every session I've played there was a time when I was ahead and if I had the discipline to quit at that point my casino balance sheet might be very different from how it is today.

Now, granted, I did hit both of my $100K royals after hitting other winners, so had I "quit when ahead" I would have missed out on both of those $100K royals.

But I still wonder if over a lifetime, quitting when ahead would have been more profitable?

Case in point: New Year's weekend. On my first time as a shooter when I arrived late Thursday night, playing craps, I hit the ALL with $25 in each position. I had a profit of more than $5,000. Had I quit at that point, I would have had that $5,000 profit. Instead I kept playing through the weekend and ended the weekend with a loss.

Question: why isn't "quitting when ahead" an AP method? Must APs continue to play even when they have a profit on the day or week or session?

[redietz]

Quitting when ahead is great as long as you quit forever.

If you're not quitting forever, then you're just pausing. Pausing isn't going to do you any good.

Arci explained this much better than me. You can't "quit" for 10 minutes, or a day, or 10 days. That isn't "quitting." It's pausing. "Quitting" means you don't play any more.

[Alan Mendelson]

Okay... let's call it pausing.

What's wrong with pausing after each time you win a prescribed amount of money?

I remember what my father told me as a kid: no one ever went broke selling a stock for a profit.

Edited to add:

If I win, pause, win, pause, win, pause... it adds up to a lot of wins.

[blackhole]

Blackhole has a hard on for me for some reason and I don't know why. Before he was mad because I asked if anyone was familiar with the foreign holdings reporting rules. Now he's mad because I answered Redietz's question about the new reporting rules for horse betting. I'll reiterate that I'm not here to argue or fight with anonymous posters. I'm just here for a little entertainment and maybe to gain a little knowledge.

But FYI Blackhole, I have been playing horses for over 50 years now, and quite profitably, and it was my sole source of income many years when I didn't want the stress and aggravation of my other job. I make no claims of being an AP or of anything other than being an astute and experienced horse player. If that bothers you, then spend the 6 or 8 hours a day studying that I do and see if that will help your results.

Owners and trainers of race horses are endlessly experimenting with all sorts of different tactics trying to find what is the best fit and spot for any horse. What’s working now for any horse could change at any time.

Like I said before, other than top of the line consistent stake bred horses, it’s a dirty, misleading, throat cutting, win at all costs, (including the animal) cash tickets at all costs, fight for survival.

I’m impressed how bettors could study for 6 to 8 hours a day and figure it all out. Maybe you guys could give some tips to the owners and trainers on what they should be doing.

What I've witnessed over the seven years I was inside the game, would shock you. If your beating this game from the outside looking in, I hope you believe in gambling gods.

[jbjb]

Question: why isn't "quitting when ahead" an AP method? Must APs continue to play even when they have a profit on the day or week or session?

Because you don't have an advantage. Being "ahead" and having a legitimate edge over the casino are two different things.

As I've asked before, how come the casino never quits while ahead against you assuming you're playing any -EV game? Answer: They don't want you to quit. Hence the ATM's, casino credit, offers to come back, etc.

No we don't have to continue to keep playing any particular session. But the longer we sit there, the easier it is to figure someone out. Trust me, I'd sleep at a table where I'm at a huge advantage if I didn't run the risk of a barring. There are various reasons to quit a session like heat, win tolerances, being discovered, etc.

As for Rob's wins. I believe they're legitimate. I also believe he doesn't tell you of the countless times he's blown his entire bankroll and lost which more than make up for ANY wins. I also believe, no, I KNOW he's in a casino far more times then he says he is. He's too easy to spot.

[slingshot]

I have also questioned his wins, and his claims about many jackpots with few hands played. But I am also familiar with his concept of quitting when ahead. And as I've said many times, in nearly every session I've played there was a time when I was ahead and if I had the discipline to quit at that point my casino balance sheet might be very different from how it is today.

Now, granted, I did hit both of my $100K royals after hitting other winners, so had I "quit when ahead" I would have missed out on both of those $100K royals.

But I still wonder if over a lifetime, quitting when ahead would have been more profitable?

Case in point: New Year's weekend. On my first time as a shooter when I arrived late Thursday night, playing craps, I hit the ALL with $25 in each position. I had a profit of more than $5,000. Had I quit at that point, I would have had that $5,000 profit. Instead I kept playing through the weekend and ended the weekend with a loss.

Question: why isn't "quitting when ahead" an AP method? Must APs continue to play even when they have a profit on the day or week or session?

Alan, I had the worst last half of a year because I got sucked in on the premise that if a strategy works one should STAY and continue winning. If I had been thinking, I would have at least used a portion of my winnings, like you did, and then leave. But I learned the hard way, a pause is a loser. It is NOT quitting and coming back later. Entirely different. And I get what the " philosophers" here mean about the long term.

[jbjb]

Alan, I had the worst last half of a year because I got sucked in on the premise that if a strategy works one should STAY and continue winning. If I had been thinking, I would have at least used a portion of my winnings, like you did, and then leave. But I learned the hard way, a pause is a loser. It is NOT quitting and coming back later. Entirely different. And I get what the " philosophers" here mean about the long term.

Playing on or stopping and coming back later ARE the same thing. This is FACT! It doesn't matter what you think.

[jbjb]

Alan, if you think quitting while ahead is a viable strategy, from now on stop playing as soon as you're 1¢ or more ahead, cash out, walk around, come back and continue this process over and over. Let us know how it works.

[slingshot]

Playing on or stopping and coming back later ARE the same thing. This is FACT! It doesn't matter what you think.

Well, enjoy yourself. I won't go as far as some , only to say that is insane thinking.

[redietz]

Well, enjoy yourself. I won't go as far as some , only to say that is insane thinking.

Okay, sling, I'll bite. How are they different? How long must one step away from a machine for it to be "quitting" instead of "pausing?" What length of time makes the difference?

I really want to know how people arrive at the time interval necessary for a break in behavior to be quitting instead of pausing. It's a fascinating topic.

[Vegas Vic]

Playing on or stopping and coming back later ARE the same thing. This is FACT! It doesn't matter what you think.

Well, enjoy yourself. I won't go as far as some , only to say that is insane thinking.

Your entire gambling life is just one big session broken up into little parts.

[Alan Mendelson]

Because you don't have an advantage.

Jbjb this answers all your questions.

Because we don't have an edge over the casino games, it makes perfect sense for us to PAUSE when ahead.
And since the casino does have an edge over us players (with the exception of you magical APs who somehow can find the dealers who don't know how to deal, and can count cards at blackjack without being detected, and can hog the few remaining 25-cent video poker machines that can pay you a profit of lunch money every hour) there is no need for the casino to pause.

[jbjb]

I didn't say it was a bad idea to stop, pause, quit, whatever you wish to call it while ahead. Actually, is a good idea while at a disadvantage. I said it makes no difference except for the fact that your lifetime playing session will be shorter which is a good thing.

Nothing I, or any other AP does is "magical" as you say. You or anyone else here can do the same exact thing of you wanted.

Sorry if I'm not suckered into the "S"uper "S"ucker club that Caesars offers. This here is one thing I'll definitely agree with Rob about.

[slingshot]

Okay, sling, I'll bite. How are they different? How long must one step away from a machine for it to be "quitting" instead of "pausing?" What length of time makes the difference?

I really want to know how people arrive at the time interval necessary for a break in behavior to be quitting instead of pausing. It's a fascinating topic.

Aside from the fact that hitting a winner is hard enough, the casino is the only participant on a long term continuum. It will continue it's cycle and when you return your next trip, it doesn't all of a sudden revert back to where you left off the last trip! Does that make sense?? That, plus the fact that you come in refreshed and not "brain dead" from living at the machines. As for length of time, that goes into win goals- and please don't tell me your win goal is $1 million.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sorry if I'm not suckered into the "S"uper "S"ucker club that Caesars offers. This here is one thing I'll definitely agree with Rob about.

I'm not saying that other casinos aren't good for players. But when I have my girl with me, I'm probably taking her to Caesars.