400 odd hands for quads?

[lucky]

Video poker experts say that a quad comes around once every 400 hands or so.... based on my experience over last 10 years and my month long experiment ( exactly 30 days) in harrahs ac on 9/6 quarter machine, I have found you get a quad once every 160 hands not 400 hands as experts claim. Well u might say I ran good...for 30 days in a row( I doubt it). How did I get that figure. I played on average 3 hours a day at 800 hands an hour. I wrote down the number of quads I got during my session (all 30 days)and divided it by the number of hands I played. I did not guesstimate my hand speed, I meticulously counted it and I got 800 hands an hour. So what happened? Are the quarter machines giving out more quads or poker machines at harrahs pay more?

[nerakil]

In 9/6 Jacks of Better, you get quads every 427 hands, given perfect play. You mentioned that you played about 72,000 hands total; you should've hit 170 quads, but instead hit 450.

Quickly calculating in my head, you are over 20 standard deviations away from the mean.

lucky: It is likely you made an error somewhere in recordkeeping.

[jbjb]

I ran $100 in free play through a 500/9/6 JoB today. Yes, that's a 2500 coin royal for betting five credits. On these you only need to bet one since there's no incentive to bet five. That's 400 total hands. I got ZERO quads. I did pull a gutter straight flush though. Made $97.00 and left.

[mickeycrimm]

Lucky, learn how to use the slot card to count the number of hands you play.

[RS__]

Were you by chance playing a triple play machine and counting one round as one hand (instead of 3 hands)? Or some other variant game (like dream card) that would alter the frequency of hands? Btw, I hope you divided total hands played by # of quads, not quads by # of hands played.

I find it hard to believe you counted each hand you played and wrote down each quad you hit...while playing 800 HPH.

[mickeycrimm]

I wrote down the number of quads I got during my session (all 30 days)and divided it by the number of hands I played.

This right here won't work, lucky. It's the other way around. If you can get confused on this you probably get confused on a lot more.

[Dan Druff]

I agree with RS_ and nerakil. It is EXTREMELY unlikely that you hit 450 quads in 72,000 hands at single-play Jacks or Better.

[RS__]

Side question -- how much did you win (or lose?) over the course of that play? Any royals (if so, how many)?

I don't say this because I particularly care, because I don't. I'm asking because if you hit 2 royals (about expected for 72k hands) and LOST while hitting a 4oak every 160 hands (instead of 420'ish), then there's a problem in your math.

On the other hand, if you ended about at expectation or within a normal standard deviation of what you'd expect, then we can discount the 4oaks hitting at 1 per 160 hands.

I quickly did some math, I'm about to head out the door -- so someone else can correct me if I'm wrong. But if you played 72k hands at $1.25, then your expected loss is about $450. Say you ran bad and didn't hit a single royal, you're down about $2500. No problem. But now add in how many 4oaks you hit above and beyond what was expected -- you expect 1 in 427 or you expect 168 in 72k. But you hit 1 per 160 or 450 total in 72k. That means you hit an extra 450-168 = 282 EXTRA 4oaks than expected. 282 * $31.25 (payoff of a 4oak), that's $8812.50.


I'm thinking you didn't win anywhere near $8k.

[Rob.Singer]

Everybody here is always looking for something to criticize rather than have intelligent conversations.

Lucky's posts are at times a little off-the-wall, certainly. But who here can prove he hasn't experienced what he said? Yeah mickey doesn't want to believe him because his name isn't "Tuna" or that of some other smoking, fat-ass puke. And while a couple of anonymous self-proclaimed "AP's" here keep trying to make others believe they murdalize +10% "plays" at unannounced places in unannounced games, this guy lucky is automatically dismissed as mistaken, incompetent, or untruthful. Anyone notice the similarity between them and all the nutjob liberals who still can't get over Trump trouncing that witch with the pervert husband--Hillary?

72000 hands does not the long-term make. Just like less than 1500 hands getting 3 royals doesn't either. You guys can't have it both ways, and that's why you're always wavering and frustrated whenever you see these kind of reports. In fact, if I didn't choose to post W2G's of my four hits within such a short period of time, you all would have been so flustered the envy puss would have been oozing out as if a boil had just been lanced.....and odds are it is anyway

Get over your "it has to be according to math theory or it just ain't true" confusion people. It you just might find yourselves in the crazy house!

[arcimede$]

Once again little Robbie shows the world the true meaning of math illiteracy. He doesn't even realize what a clown he looks like to anyone with even a freshman college math education. But as the saying goes ... stupid is as stupid does.

[mickeycrimm]

Rob doesn't believe everything he reads but he expects us to believe ridiculous claims.

[Alan Mendelson]

To be fair, your personal results can and often do vary from the expectation. Twice in my life I hit two royals within five hands of each other, but they were hours apart on different machines. And I've been dealt royals three times including once on a fifty line machine. AND I saw a random shooter roll 18 elevens in a row at a craps table.

Crazy stuff does happen.

[lucky]

Was busy with new year stuff, anyways yes I divided total number of hands by quads, was a single line game, got 1 royal, definitely sure I missed one by holding the wrong cards, don't remember how many sf I got, not many. And I lost around 1400 or so, no profit, a quad coming once every 160 hands doesn't mean u will win, what about the other 159 hands on which majority u lose, job pays only 25 for quads not 50 and up like other bonus games, I am sure I be posting massive profit, if I got those quads on those games once every 160 hands. Is my bookkeeping 100% no but it isn't totally off either, I know that I got quads once every 160 or so hands, I guarantee it didn't take me 420 hands to get it...,,why don't u guys do the experiment, do it for a week .....job gives u quads more often than other bonus games

[Alan Mendelson]

Correction: I had four dealt royals and I posted two of the photos on this forum.

1. Mandalay 50 line 5-cent machine
2. Rincon $5 progressive
3. Bellagio $5 progressive
4. Caesars $1 single line

[jcool]

Was busy with new year stuff, anyways yes I divided total number of hands by quads, was a single line game, got 1 royal, definitely sure I missed one by holding the wrong cards, don't remember how many sf I got, not many. And I lost around 1400 or so, no profit, a quad coming once every 160 hands doesn't mean u will win, what about the other 159 hands on which majority u lose, job pays only 25 for quads not 50 and up like other bonus games, I am sure I be posting massive profit, if I got those quads on those games once every 160 hands. Is my bookkeeping 100% no but it isn't totally off either, I know that I got quads once every 160 or so hands, I guarantee it didn't take me 420 hands to get it...,,why don't u guys do the experiment, do it for a week .....job gives u quads more often than other bonus games

Quads account for about 6% of the payback on JOB. You didn't play 72,000 hands, get quads at over double the expected rate, and lose money.

[lucky]

It is simple mathematics, quads pay 31.25$, 160 hands multiplied by $1.25=$200......now u see why u will lose even at the rate of quads every 160 hands....unless u ger lucky hittinh the lower paying hands regularly....which do not happen to me

[RS__]

It is simple mathematics, quads pay 31.25$, 160 hands multiplied by $1.25=$200......now u see why u will lose even at the rate of quads every 160 hands....unless u ger lucky hittinh the lower paying hands regularly....which do not happen to me

Your math shows quads pay even money. It also shows you hit 160 quads, not 1 quad per 160 hands.

72,000/160 = 450. You're saying you hit about 450 quads.
72,000/420 = 171. This is the expect amount of quads.

The difference is 279.

279 * 25 * $1.25 = $8,718.75.