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Thread: Have you ever been up 25% of your bankroll?

  1. #281
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I have to differ with this one point. What I am about to tell you may not work for someone else, but it worked for me about a week ago.

    I had to make an unexpected trip to Vegas one night last week. After conducting business I went to play some craps at Caesars. About 12 hours later I left with a NET profit of $16,500. Some of that win came from video poker.

    One thing I've experienced is that you have to be at the craps table long enough to catch the hot roll. Sometimes it's a long wait, and sometimes you get to the table just as the hot roll comes along.

    Here's what happened last week:

    I got to the table just as a new shooter got the dice. He had a moderately good roll, and so did the next four shooters and I was one of those four. While none of us five had a monster, ALL of us hit either the SMALL or the TALL bet. No one hit the ALL. I was always playing $25 on the Small Tall All so each time either the SMALL or TALL hit I was paid $875.

    Before I knew it, I was up about $8,000. I went to video poker and I lost about $2,000.

    I went back to craps and had another decent run and recovered the $2K I lost at video poker.

    I went back to video poker and this time I had a very nice run and won a bit more than $8,000 (no royals).

    I am now up a bit more than $16,000 and I went back to craps. This is where the lesson about "longevity at the table" is important.

    While at the craps table I lost about $3800. And then with only about $200 in my rail, I bet on the next shooter who had a great roll. He only hit the TALL but he made lots of passes and I recovered not only the $3800 that I lost previously, but I also won about $300. Hence my profit on the trip of about $16,500.

    Yes, I was CHASING MY LOSSES when I was down $3,800 (but still had about $12,000 in my pocket). But experience told me that cold tables don't stay cold forever... just as hot tables don't stay hot forever.

    I also think it's the same at video poker. You just need the bankroll to be at the game to catch the trend that goes your way.
    So, you chased your losses and won? I've also accidentally hit a hard 19 and caught a 2.....doesn't mean it's gonna work in the long run nor am I advocating it.

    Grats on the 16k+ night.

  2. #282
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    So, you chased your losses and won? I've also accidentally hit a hard 19 and caught a 2.....doesn't mean it's gonna work in the long run nor am I advocating it.

    Grats on the 16k+ night.
    In this case, I still had a profit of $12,000 in my pocket, but yes, I chased the $4,000 of profit that I subsequently lost at craps and I won it back plus a small profit.

    My point is that sometimes chasing losses can pay off. Again: hot tables don't stay hot forever and cold tables don't stay cold forever. You need the bankroll to be at the game to catch the money-making trends.

  3. #283
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    In this case, I still had a profit of $12,000 in my pocket, but yes, I chased the $4,000 of profit that I subsequently lost at craps and I won it back plus a small profit.

    My point is that sometimes chasing losses can pay off. Again: hot tables don't stay hot forever and cold tables don't stay cold forever. You need the bankroll to be at the game to catch the money-making trends.
    Yeah, I'm pretty sure everyone understands the concept that it can pay off (you end your session with a win) by chasing losses.

    Chasing your losses will work for some sessions, but certainly not all. Just like hitting a hard 19 will sometimes work and you'll draw a 2......but overall, both are poor strategies and you'll end up losing more money if you use those strategies.

    You should know chasing your losses is a bad strategy, but you support Rob's strategy in that aspect. Why?

  4. #284
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I have to differ with this one point. What I am about to tell you may not work for someone else, but it worked for me about a week ago.

    I had to make an unexpected trip to Vegas one night last week. After conducting business I went to play some craps at Caesars. About 12 hours later I left with a NET profit of $16,500. Some of that win came from video poker.

    One thing I've experienced is that you have to be at the craps table long enough to catch the hot roll. Sometimes it's a long wait, and sometimes you get to the table just as the hot roll comes along.

    Here's what happened last week:

    I got to the table just as a new shooter got the dice. He had a moderately good roll, and so did the next four shooters and I was one of those four. While none of us five had a monster, ALL of us hit either the SMALL or the TALL bet. No one hit the ALL. I was always playing $25 on the Small Tall All so each time either the SMALL or TALL hit I was paid $875.

    Before I knew it, I was up about $8,000. I went to video poker and I lost about $2,000.

    I went back to craps and had another decent run and recovered the $2K I lost at video poker.

    I went back to video poker and this time I had a very nice run and won a bit more than $8,000 (no royals).

    I am now up a bit more than $16,000 and I went back to craps. This is where the lesson about "longevity at the table" is important.

    While at the craps table I lost about $3800. And then with only about $200 in my rail, I bet on the next shooter who had a great roll. He only hit the TALL but he made lots of passes and I recovered not only the $3800 that I lost previously, but I also won about $300. Hence my profit on the trip of about $16,500.

    Yes, I was CHASING MY LOSSES when I was down $3,800 (but still had about $12,000 in my pocket). But experience told me that cold tables don't stay cold forever... just as hot tables don't stay hot forever.

    I also think it's the same at video poker. You just need the bankroll to be at the game to catch the trend that goes your way.
    But this whole scenario goes against your pause while ahead strategy, Alan. Why didn't you quit when you had the $8000 craps win and walk out the door like you advocate?

  5. #285
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Quite the contrary. Photos of jackpots tell us if players play big or just talk big.
    Alan, in my jurisdiction by law the max bet is $2 and the max jackpot is $800. You play much higher than I do. The difference is I grind out a profit and you don't. But if you want evidence of someone playing high then google Maureen O'Connor, ex mayer of San Diego, who took a BILLION DOLLARS in W2-G's but lost millions on the machines.

    The big reason that big bankroll machine AP's don't play high, like $25 and $100 denom machines, is because advantage plays just don't exist at that level.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 01-29-2017 at 04:41 AM.

  6. #286
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    But this whole scenario goes against your pause while ahead strategy, Alan. Why didn't you quit when you had the $8000 craps win and walk out the door like you advocate?
    Actually I use a rising stop-loss system, not a definite win goal system like Rob.

    When I was up $8,000 I was willing to risk half of that to win more. I lost $2,000 at video poker and then returned to craps where I regained the $2,000 I lost at video poker. Then I returned to video poker where I started to hit.

    I hit quad aces at $5 Bonus twice, and hit quad 4s for $5,000 at $25 Bonus, plus two other quads for $3125 each at $25 Bonus. If I didn't have to return to LA I would have risked $4,000 of the $16,000+ again.

  7. #287
    Once again mickey shows how out of touch with VP he is, and why he uses his tiny play in Montana as a cover for going to some slug bar and losing his welfare & food stamp conversion money every month.

    "Advantages don't exist for the $25 & $100 player".
    Tell that to your idol Dancer

  8. #288
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Once again mickey shows how out of touch with VP he is, and why he uses his tiny play in Montana as a cover for going to some slug bar and losing his welfare & food stamp conversion money every month.

    "Advantages don't exist for the $25 & $100 player".
    Tell that to your idol Dancer
    Who's Dancer an idol to?

    ????

  9. #289
    There is no mathematical advantage for playing at $25 and $100 (I've never played at $100) but when you do hit a big winner at those levels it does make up for a lot of losses. What really put me over the top the other night were three things:

    1. Being at the craps table when five shooters in a row hit either the SMALL or TALL (those five bets paid $4,375

    2. Hitting the small quads at $25 Bonus VP which paid $5,000.

    3. Hitting quad aces twice at $5 Bonus, paying $4,000 total.

  10. #290
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Who's Dancer an idol to?

    ????
    I don't recall Dancer actually discussing any high stakes advantage plays at these denominations recently. Unless you get Dancer's perks, which may include cash rebates on losses (we do not know, and he ain't telling), any non-Dancer player has no advantage at all regarding the plays he's executed recently.

  11. #291
    If he plays a $5 machine at a promotion that awards drawing entries based on how many points he's accumulated, then it behooves him--and if course he knows this inside out--to play the higher limit machines in order to have a better chance of winning the top prizes. His "+EV advantage" just got bigger. Of course, he might lose a bundle like he usually does in these things, but his ilk ONLY looks at theoretical percentages--aka, phantom bucks--in order to justify his participation in such nonsense.

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