Have you ever been up 25% of your bankroll?

[Alan Mendelson]

And really, when was the last time you played tens of thousands of hands on a positive expectation game?

Never.

[jbjb]

I think I've figured it out. Alan uses "Alternative Figures"

[Alan Mendelson]

I think I've figured it out. Alan uses "Alternative Figures"

Actually, I tell the truth.

[blackhole]

I have no idea what Mickey is getting, and I won't speculate on what he's getting. I'm curious, Alan, why do you ask questions to which you are quite likely to say "impossible" or something of the sort?

Because if you were actually reading most of these posts, especially the ones written by trolling forum self-proclaimed AP fools like this quoted one above, you'd be lucky to make it to the next post without your eyes bleeding forcing you to withdraw from the site.

[coach belly]

I've already answered your questions. It seems to me you may have failed elementary math.

Which 2 or more positive numbers, when added or multiplied by each other, result in a negative number?

I'll give you two hints:

1) This is the same question you're asking me.
2) No such numbers exist.

Of course the number doesn't exist...it was a rhetorical question.

mickey's formula states that the earn equals the product of the edge and volume.

If the edge and volume are both positive, then how can the earn be negative?

If the formula applies, then how can the player lose on a +EV play?

[mickeycrimm]

I used to enjoy the royal races at the Cal-Neva in Reno. I played in about 40 of them and came up with the royal 3 times. There were three sets of quarter progressive bartops at the Cal-Neva, one in the Virginian Lounge, one in the keno lounge, and one in the skywalk, that had multi-games, all on the same progressive meter. There were sucker games that only had a 96% or 97% base pay, but 9/6 Jacks was also available. The meters ran at 1.5% in the Virginian and keno lounge, and 2% in the skywalk.

The key number was $2300. That's when Winston's team came in. But Winston was smart enough to know not to lock up the whole bank. He would only take half the machines. The rest were filled by independent agents like me. So you had ten guys pounding away at 1000 HPH, all using an aggressive royal strategy that produced a royal about every 33,000 games. The average time it took for the royal to show was about 3.3 hours.

9/6 Jacks with a $2300 royal is a 102.6% play. Throw the meter in and depending on which bartops we were on and it was either a 104.1% edge or a 104.6% edge. My expectation was to play 3300 games at a $1.25 bet. That's $4125 in action. The royal represented 5.5% of the payback. So I would be taking a 3% drop between royals. The average cost to me if I didn't hit the royal was $124.

So we are not talking about being a big time loser if I'm not the one that hits the royal.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey tell us more about your stuffed mailbox full of free play offers? Just how much are they? The routine offers I get are $250 once a month. Sometimes I get an offer for $500. I mention this because neither offer makes economic sense. But having the offer supplement a trip for fun is wonderful.

Alan, for nine years now I live in Montana. I work the machines here. There is no comp here. They are just little 20 machine slot parlors. There are 1700 of them in this state. Nine years ago I found enough here that I decided to stay and work it. I pay my whole freight here but its lucrative enough I don't need any comp. But there was a time, when Laughlin, Nevada was my home base that I worked the hell out of the casino mail. I worked it to the point I that I had no bills. Its a long story and probably deserves its own thread.

[mickeycrimm]

I've stopped at two of these bars mickey claims to clobber and 1000 HPH is totally unrealistic on the type of machines they have. The more rope you guys give him, the higher up he hangs himself from. Next thing he'll be claiming is 2000 HPH on keno machines

Rob is really showing his ignorance here. So, Rob, you actually stopped into two joints when you were here? I guarantee you there were advantage plays in those two bars. But you didn't find them, did you? That's because you are not a true AP, Rob. You are a one trick pony that uses a marty on video poker. How about a $10,000 wager on whether I can get out 1000 HPH on one of these machines here, Rob? Are you up for it. Or are you going to run and hide again?

All the video poker games here are auto-hold. The auto-hold doesn't put out perfect strategy. You have to touch the screen to change the hold. But on the games I play I only have to change the hold 1 out of 8 games. There are speed controls on the game from slow to turbo. Only the uncoordinated like Rob can't get out 1000 HPH.

[mickeycrimm]

Next thing he'll be claiming is 2000 HPH on keno machines

The equipment here is as modern as it gets. I have one keno play that's a 5-spot progressive. The frequency of the solid five is 1551. You can either tap the button or use the screen sensor to play the game. And when using the screen sensor you don't even have to move your hand. You just lay your finger on the screen sensor and the game keeps playing. On turbo speed it plays at 40 games per minute. The average seat time on the play is 39 minutes. (1551/40). I usually have my windows phone out on these plays reading about Rob Singer martying negative expectation video poker games and LMAO! Sometimes I even take a nap. The bell ringing when I hit the solid five wakes me up.

[RS__]

Of course the number doesn't exist...it was a rhetorical question.

mickey's formula states that the earn equals the product of the edge and volume.

If the edge and volume are both positive, then how can the earn be negative?

If the formula applies, then how can the player lose on a +EV play?

The expected value isn't negative, it's positive. The player loses due to variance.

[coach belly]

The expected value isn't negative, it's positive.

mickey's formula includes edge, volume and earn.

the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn

Is the "earn" in mickey's formula the same thing as the expected value?

How/when does variance factor into these circumstances?

the more time I put in on the play the more I make.

[Rob.Singer]

mickey, that's why you post all over the internet about "winning 6 figures a year" in Montana of all places. You know nobody's gonna ever meet you in such a location, so you can make up anything you think you can get away with from behind your keyboard. Even Dancer turned down your invite. You readily admit to leading a binge-drinking slug life, yet to you it's real to pretend how great that is.

You missed the boat to a real life long ago. And you've been caught in your virtual life of today.

[mickeycrimm]

mickey, that's why you post all over the internet about "winning 6 figures a year" in Montana of all places. You know nobody's gonna ever meet you in such a location, so you can make up anything you think you can get away with from behind your keyboard. Even Dancer turned down your invite. You readily admit to leading a binge-drinking slug life, yet to you it's real to pretend how great that is.

You missed the boat to a real life long ago. And you've been caught in your virtual life of today.

Rob, I have to put you on blast. Rob's a little bitty cowboy. Rob's a skinny little prick. Rob don't know what planet he is on. Rob is dummer than shit.

[RS__]

mickey's formula includes edge, volume and earn.



Is the "earn" in mickey's formula the same thing as the expected value?

How/when does variance factor into these circumstances?

You fall within 68% or so of results for EV +/- 1SD. I'm not sure what it is for 2SD's or 3SD's, etc.

[Alan Mendelson]

If you have all positives in an equation, you can't have a negative. Variance that is not included in the equation has no bearing. Since Mickey didnt have variance in his equation, and since all of the elements in the equation were positive, he could only have positive results.

[mickeycrimm]

mickey, that's why you post all over the internet about "winning 6 figures a year" in Montana of all places. You know nobody's gonna ever meet you in such a location, so you can make up anything you think you can get away with from behind your keyboard. Even Dancer turned down your invite. You readily admit to leading a binge-drinking slug life, yet to you it's real to pretend how great that is.

You missed the boat to a real life long ago. And you've been caught in your virtual life of today.

$10,000 bet, bag of shit. You told everyone it's not possible on a machine in Montana. You are about one big LYING BAG OF SHIT! Put it up bitch! A $10,000 bet on whether I can crank out 1000 HPH on a Montana machine. No one is going to stop you from being a bag of shit troll, Rob. But if you want to deal with me then you are going to have to put your money where your big dumb stupid ignorant morally corrupt bankrupt dumfuck skinny little ass is in a bind.

Let's make a bet, Rob. Lets git it on.

[mickeycrimm]

Rob Argentino is a flyweight piece of shit. He cant even beat the flies off his ass.

[RS__]

If you have all positives in an equation, you can't have a negative. Variance that is not included in the equation has no bearing. Since Mickey didnt have variance in his equation, and since all of the elements in the equation were positive, he could only have positive results.

The equation wasn't for results, but expectation. Mickey called it earn.

[coach belly]

The expected value isn't negative, it's positive. The player loses due to variance.

Does the impact of variance mean that the player will lose...does it mean that he may lose?

[RS__]

Does the impact of variance mean that the player will lose...does it mean that he may lose?

Yes, he may lose in any given session.

Why don't you cut to the chase and ask or get after whatever it is you're after? Or you just trying to waste my time while (you) ask stupid questions?