Have you ever been up 25% of your bankroll?

[james40]

Typical argument. Useless.

Alan, for arguments sake, let's say I am the best DI in the world and can control my throws a large percentage of the time. Would not the casino just ban me from playing? After all, the casino is the biggest variable.

I believe I read you were backed off a few times, not for DI, but for winning streaks.

[Alan Mendelson]

MGM, Bellagio and NYNY all gave me trouble for setting the dice and using a controlled throw. I don't think I actually controlled the dice but was lucky that I was winning. They called me a dice mechanic.

Later Bellagio management apologized and said I did nothing wrong since both dice hit the back wall. I never went back to NYNY after they took the dice away from me. I never shot at MGM again.

Please look at my question: what proof do you need that DI works?

[slingshot]

MGM, Bellagio and NYNY all gave me trouble for setting the dice and using a controlled throw. I don't think I actually controlled the dice but was lucky that I was winning. They called me a dice mechanic.

Later Bellagio management apologized and said I did nothing wrong since both dice hit the back wall. I never went back to NYNY after they took the dice away from me. I never shot at MGM again.

Please look at my question: what proof do you need that DI works?

Oh, this is choice! What proof do you need that Rob's strategies work? Would it require someone to try them or sit at a machine thru a session? I know- I can be exasperating at times.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob's strategies might indeed work. But I play conventional video poker. Ironically Rob has not used his own special plays which leaves the question of when he follows his own steategy?

[slingshot]

Rob's strategies might indeed work. But I play conventional video poker. Ironically Rob has not used his own special plays which leaves the question of when he follows his own steategy?

Oh, OK. I guess I misread all his articles-even about 1/3 all his posts here. I coulda sworn he used them when deemed necessary to reach a win goal. Carry on.

[RS__]

Rob's strategies might indeed work.

0% chance Rob's strategies "work" (ie: a winning system).


For me to believe in DI, I'd like to see the actual true results of dice throws (what they land on, relative to the dice set....not so much interested in $$$ won or lost), in an actual casino environment (even playing solo with no one else at table is fine), such that the dice throw results are at least 3 standard deviations from expectation.


What hurts all (okay, most) of these "DI" people is their complete lack of knowledge about statistics, EV, or anything else ANY and EVERY AP knows. Ask a DI what their EV is for every "round" of the dice they get (from first roll to 7-out) and he doesn't have an idea. Ask him what his EV is for when he establishes a point of 5 (or any other point) -- again, no idea. Ask him to show dice outcome frequencies for his "V" set (or whatever it's called) and he doesn't know wtf you're talking about, likely because he hasn't even kept records of that type of thing -- which would be paramount to someone attempting DI.


Most of the DI type people talk about pressing their bets so they have little down-side when/if they do an immediate 7-out, money management in the form of system betting, and plenty more BS. It's definitely a ruse for the gullible, at least for the most part.

[coach belly]

What hurts all (okay, most) of these "DI" people is their complete lack of knowledge about statistics, EV, or anything else ANY and EVERY AP knows. Ask a DI what their EV is for every "round" of the dice they get (from first roll to 7-out) and he doesn't have an idea. Ask him what his EV is for when he establishes a point of 5 (or any other point) -- again, no idea. Ask him to show dice outcome frequencies for his "V" set (or whatever it's called) and he doesn't know wtf you're talking about, likely because he hasn't even kept records of that type of thing -- which would be paramount to someone attempting DI.

You have a former DI shooter that's a regular poster on this forum.

Ask regnis your questions directly...or ask if your questions are of any value to him compared to the money he won as a shooter.

But, there's no reason to pretend he's not right here in this room with you.

[Alan Mendelson]

Oh, OK. I guess I misread all his articles-even about 1/3 all his posts here. I coulda sworn he used them when deemed necessary to reach a win goal. Carry on.

This is the problem: he uses his strategies selectively. If they were so good, why wouldn't he use his special plays ALL the time?

[Alan Mendelson]

0% chance Rob's strategies "work" (ie: a winning system).


For me to believe in DI, I'd like to see the actual true results of dice throws (what they land on, relative to the dice set....not so much interested in $$$ won or lost), in an actual casino environment (even playing solo with no one else at table is fine), such that the dice throw results are at least 3 standard deviations from expectation.


What hurts all (okay, most) of these "DI" people is their complete lack of knowledge about statistics, EV, or anything else ANY and EVERY AP knows. Ask a DI what their EV is for every "round" of the dice they get (from first roll to 7-out) and he doesn't have an idea. Ask him what his EV is for when he establishes a point of 5 (or any other point) -- again, no idea. Ask him to show dice outcome frequencies for his "V" set (or whatever it's called) and he doesn't know wtf you're talking about, likely because he hasn't even kept records of that type of thing -- which would be paramount to someone attempting DI.


Most of the DI type people talk about pressing their bets so they have little down-side when/if they do an immediate 7-out, money management in the form of system betting, and plenty more BS. It's definitely a ruse for the gullible, at least for the most part.

I would like to respond to RS__.

What you deem is important is actually of no importance. There are only two goals in DI which are:

A. Increase the appearance of the 7, or
B. Decrease the appearance of the 7.

Dice Influencers don't give a damn about EVs or any statistics except for the statistic showing whether or not they got more 7s when they wanted them or got fewer 7s when they didn't want the 7 to show.

About setting the dice and which numbers they show: that also doesn't matter. For some Dice Influencers setting the cross sixes will give them outside numbers and for some the cross sixes will give them inside numbers. I use the cross sixes set -- and frankly as long as I avoid the 7 I'm happy.

[slingshot]

This is the problem: he uses his strategies selectively. If they were so good, why wouldn't he use his special plays ALL the time?

Alan, I KNOW I've read where you understand they're an effort to recover losses and make a profit, ending a session, I.e., win goal. They're a last ditch effort, if you please, and by no means a guarantee- but at least a chance. And why use them? Because there's only a limited amount of credits in his strategies and if the special play works-great. If not-loss and END OF SESSION. The selective part comes from knowing where you are in the strategy- oh so simple.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sorry, sling, but it doesn't make sense not to use special plays all the time if special plays give you a better chance at hitting a big win.

Rob says he would hold AAAJJ playing 8/5 Bonus poker, but if it's 7/5 Bonus Poker he would break up the full house and always play AAA. That makes no sense. He should never hold a full house when dealt AAA in Bonus no matter what the pay table.

Let's take his famous special play with triple double bonus: He preaches to hold 333 when dealt 3332J because holding only 333 gives him a better shot at quads. Yet, at the Wynn he held three small cards plus a kicker for a 1/47 shot at a $50,000 win. If his special plays are so good, why didn't he hold just the three small cards?

Rob answered my question: he said use of his special plays vary which prompted me to say that his strategy is arbitrary and too variable for anyone to follow. So a question for you slap: can you follow 100% of Rob's strategy? Do you know 100% of Rob's strategy?

I have memorized and can follow every play in John Growchowski's book for Bonus and Double Double Bonus and Aces and Faces and Super Aces Bonus. I can't do that with Rob's strategy even if he did sit with me for a free days of tutoring.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob's strategies might indeed work. But I play conventional video poker. Ironically Rob has not used his own special plays which leaves the question of when he follows his own steategy?

This again? I use "special plays" when my strategy calls for them, and I use optimal play on all other holds. Simple enough?

[Alan Mendelson]

This again? I use "special plays" when my strategy calls for them, and I use optimal play on all other holds. Simple enough?

Translation: special plays aren't really special enough that they should be used all the time.

[slingshot]

This again? I use "special plays" when my strategy calls for them, and I use optimal play on all other holds. Simple enough?

I don't see how it could be clearer-or simpler.

[slingshot]

Translation: special plays aren't really special enough that they should be used all the time.

Wow. Really, Alan?

[Alan Mendelson]

I use "special plays" when my strategy calls for them, and I use optimal play on all other holds. Simple enough?

Exactly when do you use and not use special plays? Give us the exact "tipping point"? Is there a tipping point? Or, is it a variable target?

(Careful... I know what your answer is going to be.)

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't see how it could be clearer-or simpler.

Oh dear true believer... you are in for a surprise.

[RS__]

I would like to respond to RS__.

What you deem is important is actually of no importance. There are only two goals in DI which are:

A. Increase the appearance of the 7, or
B. Decrease the appearance of the 7.

Dice Influencers don't give a damn about EVs or any statistics except for the statistic showing whether or not they got more 7s when they wanted them or got fewer 7s when they didn't want the 7 to show.

About setting the dice and which numbers they show: that also doesn't matter. For some Dice Influencers setting the cross sixes will give them outside numbers and for some the cross sixes will give them inside numbers. I use the cross sixes set -- and frankly as long as I avoid the 7 I'm happy.

You're right. And that's my point. Almost all DIs are phonies. I say almost all, because there could exist a DI which actually knows what he's doing.

Alan, changing your SRR to 8 (1/8 rolls are 7) does not do a damn thing if you don't know how frequently other numbers are rolled. IF one could actually influence the dice, he'd need to work out the EV's for each bet for each set. Just because you can avoid a 7 longer than expected, doesn't mean you're playing with an advantage. Just try working out a few numbers, and see what you get.

But ultimately, it comes down to a complete lack of understanding of what they're doing (or trying to do*).


It's like asking a card counter what his EV/hour is, at which count he wongs out, or what his advantage & bet is at a +3....for him to say, "None of that matters. All that matters is I keep track of the ratio high to low cards remaining! And because I bet more when the count is high then I make money!!"

[RS__]

FWIW, not that I think Rob's system is any good (it's not a winning system), you'd be better off only making shitty strategy deviations less frequently (IE: Only when you're stuck a good amount) rather than always do it. My reason why is different than Rob's, I think. My reason is: The less frequently you make a bad play, the more you'll save.....and the less you'll lose.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, changing your SRR to 8 (1/8 rolls are 7) does not do a damn thing if you don't know how frequently other numbers are rolled.

Is this really why you don't believe that anyone can influence dice? Because they haven't also figured out the EV of various numbers? This is the most absurd thing I've ever read.

Tell me you don't think anyone has the fine motor skills to keep dice aligned in the air. That will make more sense than telling me your objection to the possibility of dice influencing lies in the lack of knowing how often various numbers are rolled.