Have you ever been up 25% of your bankroll?

[Alan Mendelson]

Sling unfortunately Rob's special play strategy or method stands on its own. Either you hold kickers or you don't. He explained his Special plays to me and said he does not hold kickers. But now he holds kickers when his strategy gets him into a deep hole. Okay I guess he is saying that when the Rob Singer method doesn't work he has to rely on the Bob Dancer method.

[slingshot]

Sorry guys. I have to leave this forum. I'm satisfied with my understanding of the strategies- and I agree with Alan that they are too complicated to just sit down and casually play. It requires keeping up with where you are and I would advise anyone to sit with Rob-yeah- like that's gonna happen. I spent almost 6 years probing his mind and playing and I can't answer questions to every aspect of the strategy like Rob. I have said before that it is a flexible-not fixed- strategy and one would have to play it to understand.

[Rob.Singer]

Sling unfortunately Rob's special play strategy or method stands on its own. Either you hold kickers or you don't. He explained his Special plays to me and said he does not hold kickers. But now he holds kickers when his strategy gets him into a deep hole. Okay I guess he is saying that when the Rob Singer method doesn't work he has to rely on the Bob Dancer method.

That's the typical cop out from people with limited ability to comprehend things, and you're better than that. What you're saying is you know more about my play strategy and special plays than the developer does, and because you want it to be different than it is then you have to make your own version up.

You truly do belong on WoV as a full-time provocateur.

[jbjb]

I have said before that it is a flexible-not fixed- strategy and one would have to play it to understand.

It's called SWAG. Systematic Wild Assed Guessing. Didn't work before he was born and doesn't work now.

[Alan Mendelson]

That's the typical cop out from people with limited ability to comprehend things, and you're better than that. What you're saying is you know more about my play strategy and special plays than the developer does, and because you want it to be different than it is then you have to make your own version up.

You truly do belong on WoV as a full-time provocateur.

It's your fault Rob. Review our interviews. They're all on my website. See how you explained your special plays.

[Rob.Singer]

I have, and they are hardly all-inclusive for every hold. And not every special play and optimal play situation was discussed.

It all boils down to your propensity to need to argue. It's all been said....but then again, I'm a lover not a fighter.

By the way, here's another more serious example of what usually happens when people don't listen. Last week a long time LV local "student" of mine who previously only played 5-level 25c thru $5 ARTT very successfully, had his 60 yr. old sister pass away who left him a sizeable inheritance, so he wanted me to sit with him (advise holds) at Red Rock as he played $1/$2/$5/10 ARTT for the very first time. He had the correct $12k bankroll with him so we were good to go. Each session had a simple $200 minimum win goal.

First session: profit of $235. Second session: profit of $38,690 as he hit a $10 BP royal by holding a lone Ace of hearts--which was a special play because you never hold an A with an offsuit high card in BP.

The problem? He got confident & cocky after hitting the biggest jackpot of his life, like so many losing gamblers do. I advised he go home and count his money, because cash won is worth a whole lot more at home on your kitchen table than it is as units of play in a casino. Besides, what more could he hope for--did he really expect to see another RF?

But no, he wouldn't listen. All that money made his heart beat fast and his hands sweat, and he practically begged me to stick around as he played ARTT on their $2/$5/$10/$25 machine (RR doesn't have 5-level $1 thru $25 machines). I couldn't just leave him, even though one of my major rules is NEVER go up in denomination after hitting any jackpot at a lower level (something addicts and uncontrolled problem gamblers regularly do).

Of course, he DID have the proper bankroll for this, which is $30,000. So he played BP & SABP, three sessions, got zero quads, never got ahead period, and lost $30k in one of the most boring and frustrating times I've ever witnessed at a VP machine. So instead of going home when I told him to with an overall profit of $38,925 (I long ago taught him to NEVER give tips on handpays) he went home +$8925. Now I know this might sound OK to you because of your sliding scale of acceptable declining profit after a sizeable win, but greed is not a part of my game.

For the record, this was the first time I've ever seen 3 straight losing sessions of ARTT with no soft profit cashouts. I hope the idiot learned his lesson. It probably bothers me a ton more than it does him.

[RS__]

I really don't know how to answer, Red. Rob is the one that did all the analysis for his two 400 credit strategies and formulated the win goal figures with an approximate 80+% win rate.

Under the premise he actually did the analysis, he'd be able to show us the analysis. Yet, we've seen absolutely none.

[Rob.Singer]

An analysis of formulating win goals for the bankroll used? That's stupid. My main strategy uses a simple 5%-of-session minimum win goal because greed has no place in how or why I play.

You really should pay attention if you bother to take the time to be reading these things.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have, and they are hardly all-inclusive for every hold. And not every special play and optimal play situation was discussed.

But you did discuss #16 -- similar to your $50,000 win at Wynn in Triple Double Bonus. You didn't use your special play and used a conventional play in order to win the $50K. Prior to that win, the Singer method got you into a deep hole.

I need an explanation. Please be specific.

[a2a3dseddie]

By the way, here's another more serious example of what usually happens when people don't listen. Last week a long time LV local "student" of mine who previously only played 5-level 25c thru $5 ARTT very successfully, had his 60 yr. old sister pass away who left him a sizeable inheritance, so he wanted me to sit with him (advise holds) at Red Rock as he played $1/$2/$5/10 ARTT for the very first time. He had the correct $12k bankroll with him so we were good to go. Each session had a simple $200 minimum win goal.

An analysis of formulating win goals for the bankroll used? That's stupid. My main strategy uses a simple 5%-of-session minimum win goal because greed has no place in how or why I play.

You really should pay attention if you bother to take the time to be reading these things.

Why don't you tell us exactly what the win goals are starting with various stakes. If you start with $100, what is your win goal? If you start with $300, what is your win goal? Do your win goals change as the sessions(s) continue? If so, why? Why would starting bankroll for a session affect a win goal?

Here's a few "whys" for you redietz...

Why isn't 5% of $12,000 like $600? Why didn't they leave after the "win goal" of $200 was reached? Are there now individual "session win goals" and "overall super-de-duper win goals"?

Maybe he answered it himself:

all you do is tell made-up stories all over internet forums, so why would anyone with a brain not laugh profusely

[slingshot]

Here's a few "whys" for you redietz...

Why isn't 5% of $12,000 like $600? Why didn't they leave after the "win goal" of $200 was reached? Are there now individual "session win goals" and "overall super-de-duper win goals"?

Maybe he answered it himself:

May I answer? Each session of the 3 sessions is $4,000. 5% of $4,000 IS $200. He left first session with $235. I'm answering this one because his post ALSO answers the "WHY" that gets thrown up in my face: If the strategy works, why not stay and play on and on. Thanks for the post.

[Alan Mendelson]

So sling, why doesn't he stay and play on and on and on? And how did he get into such a big hole at Wynn that he scrapped his own special play to play the way Dancer plays?

[slingshot]

So sling, why doesn't he stay and play on and on and on? And how did he get into such a big hole at Wynn that he scrapped his own special play to play the way Dancer plays?

OK, Alan. You suckered me into another post. If you HAD EVER read his articles, posts, you would remember the math was done for at least 3 sessions- that while it was possible to lose all 3 sessions, it was highly unlikely. And yes, I know you hit 2 royals in one day. Anyone here can do what he pleases. I fell for the idea of continuing when that was brought up several months ago, and it turned out just like this guy at Red Rock, only he left with some winnings and I lost all mine. I'm lucky to have a sweet wife that shrugged it off- being nearly $300 ahead and giving it back. I, OTOH, kicked myself for days.
I have no remembrance of the Wynn incident. I surmise he was playing his single play strategy which consists of 2400 credits and he plays it that way irregardless of how far he's into the game.
I just have trouble believing you don't already know this.
And speaking of playing on and on, if anyone plays his single play strategy, unless you have extreme good luck and hit the $2,500 win goal right off the bat, I assure you that you will have had enough playing time. I played an hour and a half, starting at nickels and just took my $80 profit and left as I had to pick up my wife. I never made it to quarters.

[Alan Mendelson]

I know nothing about ARTT and SRTT and as an ex New Yorker I didn't even know the BMT subway. My point is simple. Rob did a series of interviews with me so I could have a reference for his "special plays." He told me he doesn't hold kickers. Yet he did at the Wynn to win $50,000. I'm glad he won the money but he didn't follow his own Special Play. So he's got to explain why.

He offered an explanation.

Frankly it only proves what I've said before: his OVERALL SYSTEM is too complicated for anyone to learn.

Sling you've been following him for years and you keep asking questions here.

Frankly I read Grichowski's book and I read up in Aces and Faces and Royal Aces Bonus and Bonus Poker and I don't have to keep asking questions ten years later.

Rob's system, if it requires so many changes every time you play, is probably worthless to anyone but Rob because it has so many changes and exceptions.

The system is so arbitrary it seems to be nothing more than lucky guesses. Rob will have to prove otherwise.

[a2a3dseddie]

May I answer? Each session of the 3 sessions is $4,000. 5% of $4,000 IS $200. He left first session with $235. I'm answering this one because his post ALSO answers the "WHY" that gets thrown up in my face: If the strategy works, why not stay and play on and on. Thanks for the post.

So slingshot, if I'm understanding you... the "overall super-de-duper win goal" is actually $600 (5% of $12,000) and you are trying to win it in $200 increments using $4000 each time. Got it.

So sling, why doesn't he stay and play on and on and on?

And speaking of playing on and on, if anyone plays his single play strategy, unless you have extreme good luck and hit the $2,500 win goal right off the bat, I assure you that you will have had enough playing time. I played an hour and a half, starting at nickels and just took my $80 profit and left as I had to pick up my wife. I never made it to quarters.

So from the time you take your $80 profit home until you go back to the casino to play again, what changes so that your next "session of 3 sessions" will again be successful?

In other words, how does that "break" prevent this:

For the record, this was the first time I've ever seen 3 straight losing sessions of ARTT with no soft profit cashouts.

[slingshot]

I give up. Uncle. It was worth it to me to read the Red Rock post as I foolishly fell for the keep playing suggestion and when the action stopped after about 4 sessions and NOTHING hit on ANY machine, I had my doubts. Lesson learned. Play however you like.

[jbjb]

Your never going to get it through your head. Whether you hit your goal and leave or start over at that very moment isn't going to change a damn thing. Your playing a -EV game and you are going to lose!! Rob can come in with his usual "I don't lose" garbage, but we all know it's hearsay and he has offered zero proof of anything. But if leaving will make you feel better, by all means stick to that. Nothing wrong with it.

[Alan Mendelson]

There is a lot of value in quitting when ahead. You might never beat a negative expectation game, but nothing beats and there is nothing wrong with leaving the casino with a profit. I would never criticize anyone who left the casino after being ahead.

[mickeycrimm]

At first Rob said he never holds kickers. Then he said he will hold a kicker if the draw has a chance to get him to his win goal. He plays Triple Double Bonus. Rob uses a progressive betting system. The denoms are $1, $2, $5, $10, $25, $100. According to Rob his bankroll for each level is 400 times the denom (80 betting units per level)

So at the first level, $1 denom, he could never be stuck more than $400. So let's say some time during that level he is dealt AAA2J. The first thing about it is Four Aces with a Kicker pays $4000 at this level. Holding AAA2 Rob would have a 1 in 47 chance on the draw to obtain his win goal. If he only holds AAA then his chance of hitting Four Aces improves to 1 in 23.5. But his chances of hitting the Four Aces with the kicker is reduced to 1 in 98. Here's the math:

47 cards left in the deck on a two card draw; 47X46/2X1 = 1081 two-card combinations. In order to make Four Aces with a kicker Rob would have to catch the Ace with one of the 11 small cards left in the deck. So 1081/11 = 98.27

So which draw is Rob doing to take? Both draws give Rob a chance to hit his win goal. Drawing to AAA leaves him just a slim chance to get to his win goal. Drawing to AAA2 gives him twice the chance to get to his win goal. So which draw do you take in this situation, Rob?

[Alan Mendelson]

Question for Mickey: why must Rob hit his win goal in one hand?