Slumming in las vegas trip report: Public buses, downtown, coupons and winning

[mickeycrimm]

Betting the pass line and taking 100X free odds cuts the house edge to 0.2%.

[Alan Mendelson]

Betting the pass line and taking 100X free odds cuts the house edge to 0.2%.

Is that what you would consider an advantage play?

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't think he was ever ahead at that table, quahaug. Exactly, and he quit when he hit his stop loss of twenty g's

I'm not sure he quit. I walked back to Caesars.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, for every story of your friend shooting off $20k while making big odds bets, there are an equivalent number of stories of people winning big while placing such bets.

I don't know. I only watched him and never saw another playing making 100x odds bets in my life.

I do have a client who went to the Riviera when they had 1,000X odds. He lost that weekend. I don't know how much he lost, but from my conversation with him he lost upwards of 100K. He was playing the "right way."

[jbjb]

Is that what you would consider an advantage play?

No.

[Alan Mendelson]

No.

Exactly right.

[regnis]

I have never made the 100x odds bet on my initial bet, but have always used it as a means of pressing. So if the line bet is $5.00 and I bet $200 odds, as a few passes are made I continue to increase the odds. When it is time to go beyond the $500 max, then I up the line bet to $10. If I am not at a 100x game, I simply place the numbers anyway.

[FABismonte]

I have made a 100 times odds bet once in my life and even then I only made a joint bet with two former school buddies, Mr. C and Mr. S, during summer 2016. Over drinks at the Harrah's Diamond Lounge, we discussed the logistics of this bet among the three of us. We agreed to share the bet three ways, about $167 per man. We would go to the Cromwell, make a single $500 odds pass line bet, and leave --- win or lose. Additionally, to reduce the variance, we would only put the full odds on the pass line bet if the point was a six or an eight. We certainly would not make such a bet on a four or ten as we had twice as much chance for a losing Seven than a winning point. The fact that I had my buddies with me made this bet more exciting and also would be peer pressure not to press any winning or steam if we lost.

We then finished our drinks at the Harrah’s Diamond Lounge and headed over to the Cromwell. When we got there it was the afternoon and we found that the minimum bet was raised to $10. Mr. C noted that the house edge was still miniscule if we had a $10 pass line bet and $500 odds, but we quickly noted that it would defeat the bucket list dream of full 100 times odds bet.

I then suggested that we head over to the Casino Royale where they also advertised 100 times odds and probably did not have more than $5 minimums in the afternoon. As we walked up there, we discussed that it would seem to make unnecessary work for the craps dealers to buy in for $500 plus then cash out after one pass. So we thought it would be more “polite” to buy the chips at the Casino Royale cashier. It was agreed I would bet for all of us. When we got there, we verified that the craps table at Casino Royale was relocated near the back of the casino, toward the snack bars, and was open with $5 minimums. Here is a photo of the 100 times odds advertising sign.

[FABismonte]

As we approached the cashier to buy the chips, Mr. S started having cold feet. He said that he had already lost on the trip and was not excited about making a $167 bet on ONE roll of the dice. In fairness, he was never as big a gambler as Mr. C and I. Mr. C and I welcomed him to put as little as he wanted into the gambit. He said he was comfortable putting in $100. So we then amended our own little “corporation” by having a $200 investment from both Mr. C and I for the odds with $100 from Mr. S. We would divide up our anticipated winnings proportionally to our bet so we shared 40%-40%-20%. At my suggestion, we also agreed that for simplicity sake I would own the pass line bets, and win or lose, keep the pass line results for myself. I then walked up the cashier with $525 dollars and asked for five black ($100) and five red chips ($5). The cashier replied that we could not buy chips at the cashier and we could only do so at the tables. I pointed out the rack of black chips beside her and said “you cannot sell me any of those?” The answer was “no” coupled with a bit of an eye roll. So defeated by the cashier, we went off the craps table -- cash in hand.

There were two craps tables, but only one was open. On the open one was a fairly large gap to the stick right and the three of us walked up to that gap. To our immediate right was a young woman who had the point on nine, a $5 pass line bet and was rolling with ten odds. The minimum bet on the craps table sign was $5 with 100 times odds. While she was rolling I read the sign again and was confused as it also stated “closed 5 AM to 9 AM.” I thought that it was possible that the 100 times odds were for specific time frames and asked the dealer for clarification. He said we could make 100 times bets now, and the time on the sign simply noted when the craps table was closed. I guess there was not enough action justify manning the tables in the wee morning hours.

After about five rolls, the young woman shooter made a “seven out.” I then dropped five Benjamins, a Jackson and a Lincoln and said “five black and five red please.” The dealer, then repeated what I said. The box woman, not as bored as she was a second ago, picked up five black from the middle of the table and pushed them out and I was slipped five more red chips. The dealer also raised my Benjamins to the light and checked them out to reduce the chance they were counterfeit. I then placed a $5 chip on the passline. I was prepared to wait until a point of 6 or 8. The dice were passed to the other side of the table to a middle aged woman, passing me by. I did not expect to get the dice since I had not been playing, in truth I did not want the added pressure of rolling as well. As if the gambling gods heard my inchoate prayer, a point of six was immediately made. I then put $500 odds behind our bet. Here is a photo of our bet which I sneaked in without being tossed out of the place.

[FABismonte]

An advantage for us having the dice passed to the other side of the table was we had a front row view of the dice as they stopped on our end of the table. The shooter then rolled … a four. OK, no result. She then rolled a few craps numbers, like two threes and a snake eyes. Then she rolled . . . an eight! The OTHER number we would have been willing to put a $500 odds bet behind. Mr. C exclaimed that could have been our number!

At this point, my heart was racing. I could feel my ribs as my chest was tightening and my arteries were doing jackhammer like effort. I have been playing craps for many years but the size of the bet, and the fact that all three of us were on it, got me really excited. I told Mr. C that I was really nervous. Mr. C said so was he. Mr. S did not respond. He simply stared at the felt of the craps table.

The shooter then rolled . . . a Nine. No action for us. Then the shooter rolled again . . . the dice bounced around on our end revealing a four and a . . . two for a beautiful total of SIX!!!! We screamed, and pumped our fists. The other side of the table was happy as well as they made the point. The dealer put a red chip next to our passline bet and six black next to our odds bet.

I place the two $5 chips into the Come area and said “for the dealers” and got a polite, but not overly enthusiastic “thank you.” I then excited picked up the eleven black chips, and tossed the left over 4 red chips to the shooter. She was surprised by the chips flying her way and so I approached as said I had a $500 line bet so the $20 was for you. In retrospect I am not sure I should have tossed so much to the shooter, but was happy that the red chips were mine alone so I did not have to divide it up with my buddies and justify the tips.

I then pointed out the closed craps table and suggested we move there for some celebration photos. I then laid all eleven black chips on that table and took the photo below.



We went to the cashier to cash out our chips. The cashier promptly picked up the phone to verify whether there was a problem cashing in our chips. Since she eventually handed out cash, I presume I was able to escape any further scrutiny and/or am not heading to Vegas Metro or Guantanamo Bay. We asked that one Benjamin be broken into twenties for change. I wonder if the cashier thought we were going to tip her, but I was not interested in doing so.

So we divided up the wealth with winnings of $240 each for me and Mr. C and $120 for Mr. S. We then went to the nearby White Castle at Casino Royale for a bag of sliders to celebrate! The last time I had sliders was in the Midwest when we were at school so it was the perfect celebration cuisine to check the 100 times odds bet off my bucket list. Particularly since Casino Royale no longer offers 100 times odds.

FAB

[Alan Mendelson]

Great story. And I loved that you quit when ahead. Yes, you won at a negative expectation game.

[mickeycrimm]

Is that what you would consider an advantage play?

You don't give me much credit, Alan. I wouldn't touch a 99.8% game with a 100 ft. Pole. I don't even like 101% or 102%. Much to thin. I work big fat edges like 110% or 120%.

[mickeycrimm]

Is that what you would consider an advantage play?

Alan, my first thought upon reading your post here was you've got to be kidding, right? If you think that I would consider a 99.8% game to be an advantage play then I can tell that you don't read much of the technical stuff I write.

[nerakil]

FABismonte: You were much more succinct when you called in with your trip report on Podcast Episode #107!

Thanks for sharing the detailed trip report to Downtown Las Vegas. Great photos as well! I'm taking a work-vacation in a few weeks, JFK-LAS and staying 4 nights at Caesars Palace, but first on the itinerary after stepping off the airplane is always Westcliff Airport Express -> Fremont St. and a quick coupon run!



And by the way FAB: they will take out the #1 seed today and make it to the Sweet 16!

[Alan Mendelson]

You don't give me much credit, Alan. I wouldn't touch a 99.8% game with a 100 ft. Pole.

Actually, 100X odds doesn't make it a 99.8% game either. No matter what the odds are, your chances of winning that bet are always 6 to 5 against you.

Combining the odds to a "blended return" is just hocus pocus that the casinos use to lure big bettors in. Even with 10,000X odds your chance of winning the 6 are still 6 to 5 against you.

While there is no house advantage on the odds bet, the odds bet is always linked to the flat or passline bet. The odds bet is always more likely to lose. This is where the math can kill you.

[jbjb]

The odds bet is always more likely to lose.

Not on the don't side. There it's more likely to win. On the pass side, yes that's true. The pay off makes up for it though. As said before, the odds bet only increases variance. You'll still loser long term.

If I offered you 51 to 1 odds on pulling the aces of diamonds out of a shuffled deck, there'd be no advantage either way as well, and you're still way more likely to lose than win. Now saying that, ask yourself why a four to a royal in VP is so advantageous for the player even though it's a long shot to hit. Even taking out the pairs, flushes and straights you might hit along the way still makes it highly advantageous. Give me four to a royal on every hand and I'll break the casino!

[Alan Mendelson]

Not on the don't side. There it's more likely to win. On the pass side, yes that's true. The pay off makes up for it though.

No, the payoff on the odds for rightside players does NOT make up for the likelihood that the odds bet will lose.

The payoff is with NO player advantage just as it has NO house advantage. Where the house comes out ahead is that the flat bet which the odds are tied to is more likely to lose.

All of the math "experts" extoll the virtues of the odds bet as having no house advantage, yet they forget it also has no player advantage and forget that it is tied to the flat bet which always has a house edge (right way players, of course).

jbjb omits that the don't flat bet has a huge disadvantage on the comeout roll, but then, there are no odds. And when the odds are paid on the don't bet, they are paid at HALF of the value of the odds.

You see... there is no mathematical way to win at craps. None. Math experts should take their strong suit to some other game.

[mickeycrimm]

Actually, 100X odds doesn't make it a 99.8% game either. No matter what the odds are, your chances of winning that bet are always 6 to 5 against you.

Combining the odds to a "blended return" is just hocus pocus that the casinos use to lure big bettors in. Even with 10,000X odds your chance of winning the 6 are still 6 to 5 against you.

While there is no house advantage on the odds bet, the odds bet is always linked to the flat or passline bet. The odds bet is always more likely to lose. This is where the math can kill you.

Alan, I made a mistake. It's not a 0.2% house edge, it's a 0.02% house edge. That makes it a 99.98% RTP. Here's another way of looking at it. When you make a passline bet of $10 the house has 14 cents worth of edge (1.4%) on the bet. When the point is established you take the 100X free odds. Now their is $1010 worth of action but the house still has only 14 cents worth of edge on the bet.

[jbjb]

No, the payoff on the odds for rightside players does NOT make up for the likelihood that the odds bet will lose.

The payoff is with NO player advantage just as it has NO house advantage. Where the house comes out ahead is that the flat bet which the odds are tied to is more likely to lose.

All of the math "experts" extoll the virtues of the odds bet as having no house advantage, yet they forget it also has no player advantage and forget that it is tied to the flat bet which always has a house edge (right way players, of course).

jbjb omits that the don't flat bet has a huge disadvantage on the comeout roll, but then, there are no odds. And when the odds are paid on the don't bet, they are paid at HALF of the value of the odds.

You see... there is no mathematical way to win at craps. None. Math experts should take their strong suit to some other game.

I know all this, Alan and agree with you. I was just talking about odds bet alone. Let's assume I make the pass or don't pass bet bet and I allow you to make the odds bet and nothing else (I'm not suggesting anyone play this way). Long term you should break even and I'll be the loser. If the point is 4, you're 2 to 1 against winning and the odds pays 2:1. So in that instance, the "math" makes up for it. Yes both bets tied together, we'll be down overall. When it comes to guys like you though, you see one short stint of someone doing something, whether they win or lose, and you get convinced it works or doesn't. Just like the scenario you described at CR or your supposed doctor "DI" buddy you saw ONCE!

You know, I didn't get convinced that card counting worked or didn't work just because I saw someone do it for an hour win or lose. I dealt REAL cards and kept records for a couple of YEARS, not days, to convince myself.

But just to reiterate, I agree with you, line bets + odds is an overall loser. The more you bet, the more you'll lose.

[james40]

FAB,

Nice report, I enjoyed that. We used to stay at the Golden Nugget back in the early 90's before the canopy was built. Lately we have been tempted to make it downtown but it never seems to be in the "cards".

Speaking of slumming, we made a quick run to Vegas Friday March 10, it was a quick overnight as we were in SoCal doing some business and had Friday off. We wanted to have a nice dinner, visit some friends and watch some basketball before the frenzy of the NCAA's start. We did the Valet at Ballys simply because it's the easiest to get in and out of on a Friday afternoon. Paid parking has not started yet, but it's coming soon. I did check out the VP pay tables and still a miserable 7/5 JOB and 6/5 BP at the quarter level.

I know the bankrupt degenerates won't understand this, but it was a non-gambling trip for us. I like the NCAA's and enjoy having a game on anywhere you go. Watched the WAC game, had a couple of drinks and made it a fairly early night. Stayed at the Venetion.

We then did a quick run to Tahoe for this weekend for probably our last ski weekend of the season. Stayed two nights at Harrahs, still the home of 8/5 BP and 9/5 DDB at quarters. My wife and I play on one card and while we didn't get many TC's from gambling, I figure we had roughly 700 tier credits from food at the hotel (the boys like room service). We had a nice dinner Saturday night at Fridays station. I think the wife and I dropped maybe $200 between the two of us gambling, nothing really exciting, my wife talked me into playing some dragon based penny slot with a huge display and I ended up cashing out $130 from a $20 dollar investment. We tried VP, but were just too tired to really concentrate, after my wife told me I just tossed tossed away two 2's I knew it was time to call it a night.

I still consider Harrahs Tahoe the gem of the CET empire, if you like snow or hiking, it's a premier location. Having the Heavenly ski resort a few steps away from the side door is a huge plus. I'm losing hope for Las Vegas, this may have been our last trip.