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Thread: This just made me think...

  1. #1
    After playing this week, I know I must have drawn twenty high card pairs w 3/royal possible and the highest hand made was ONE full house. Then, after reminiscing the past 12 years, I realized I couldn't recall EVER hitting a quad by holding the high pair. So, I'm with Alan on this one- WHENEVER it comes up I'm going for it. As for win goals, a full house RARELY has fulfilled that.

  2. #2
    I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'm fairly certain that one full house out of 20 pair draws is running above expectation.

    Regardless, 20 hands is a pretty meaningless sample. A few trips ago, I had ~15 pair hands in a row that didn't improve at all.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    After playing this week, I know I must have drawn twenty high card pairs w 3/royal possible and the highest hand made was ONE full house. Then, after reminiscing the past 12 years, I realized I couldn't recall EVER hitting a quad by holding the high pair. So, I'm with Alan on this one- WHENEVER it comes up I'm going for it. As for win goals, a full house RARELY has fulfilled that.
    What game?

    And I don't buy that you've never hit quads holding the high pair instead on the 3 to a royal within 12 years. No matter, if you'd rather give up a little bit of EV for the gamble and high variance of that 1 in 1081 chance, go for it. You could still hit a flush, straight, trips, two pair, or another high pair. Both plays are long term +EV. The high pair just gets more money in most instances.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    What game?

    And I don't buy that you've never hit quads holding the high pair instead on the 3 to a royal within 12 years. No matter, if you'd rather give up a little bit of EV for the gamble and high variance of that 1 in 1081 chance, go for it. You could still hit a flush, straight, trips, two pair, or another high pair. Both plays are long term +EV. The high pair just gets more money in most instances.
    I only play bonus poker and ddbp. I think they are finally adding sdbp and other abp games. I assure you I have from the beginning of learning been a quad seeker and especially as a beginner- since I hadn't learned some of the more "advanced" plays. After I started seeking Royals, I still can't recall a single instance where quads developed in a possible high pair/3-royal scenario. The frustration helps remembering such, and I have no reason to lie. OTOH, I have hit quads on sweeps, one card draws-hands I never expected to hit. Yeah, I think I remember one has about 14 hands that can be hit from 3 to a Royal and that's the way I played for a long time while learning.

  5. #5
    I want calling you a liar, but with so many hands played over the years, I'm certain there were times its happened.

    You know that in DDB, some 3 card royals are actually the correct play over a high pair. Again though, with the frequency of the opportunity, you aren't going to miss much.

  6. #6
    Sorry,wrong thread...thought it was a thread trying to figure if Coach Belly was a man or a woman

  7. #7
    First of all, it's a rare event to have a high pair with three to the royal. So when those rare event pop up I will try for the royal because three to the royal is even a rarer event.

    During my last three trips to casinos, I had four to the royal ONCE. I think I might have had three to the royal twice, but NEVER with a high pair.

    And yes I've had plenty of high pairs that drew to full houses and quads.

  8. #8
    Hitting a quad holding a pair only happens once in every 360 tries. Looking at only 20 attempts is kind of silly. Hitting a full house is almost as tough. The key reason holding high pair is the better strategy is because you always get your money back.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    First of all, it's a rare event to have a high pair with three to the royal. So when those rare event pop up I will try for the royal because three to the royal is even a rarer event.

    During my last three trips to casinos, I had four to the royal ONCE. I think I might have had three to the royal twice, but NEVER with a high pair.

    And yes I've had plenty of high pairs that drew to full houses and quads.
    I understand that- me also. But in the cases where the hand is a CHOICE between a high pair or 3/royal, I can't recall a single instance where I hit quads holding the high pair INSTEAD OF three/royal.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Hitting a quad holding a pair only happens once in every 360 tries. Looking at only 20 attempts is kind of silly. Hitting a full house is almost as tough. The key reason holding high pair is the better strategy is because you always get your money back.
    Agreed. But in the case of high pair/3 to royal, it's only been an extra spin to keep playing and seems like a wasted hand to hold the pair.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Agreed. But in the case of high pair/3 to royal, it's only been an extra spin to keep playing and seems like a wasted hand to hold the pair.
    Taking a guaranteed win with the possibility of improvement is not wasting anything. Giving up a guaranteed win chasing a 1 in 1081 long shot is wasting something. Way more often than not, you get ZERO back and lose your winnings chasing the royal. But hey, it's your money.

    It's reasons like this that gamblers like yourself keep getting invited back to casinos.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Agreed. But in the case of high pair/3 to royal, it's only been an extra spin to keep playing and seems like a wasted hand to hold the pair.
    I'm playing to hit the royal, not to get my money back with a break even hand.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Giving up a guaranteed win chasing a 1 in 1081 long shot is wasting something.
    You don't think twice about breaking up a dealt flush or a dealt straight with four to the royal, do you? Well that's a 1/47 chase.

    Since I don't depend on gambling for my livelihood, I chase the 1 in 1081 every time (except when the high pair is aces).

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You don't think twice about breaking up a dealt flush or a dealt straight with four to the royal, do you? Well that's a 1/47 chase.

    Since I don't depend on gambling for my livelihood, I chase the 1 in 1081 every time (except when the high pair is aces).
    Ha ha! About 8 years ago I hit TWO $1 Royals in two weeks. The game? Ddbp. The draw hand? A pair of A's/4 to Royal..

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You don't think twice about breaking up a dealt flush or a dealt straight with four to the royal, do you? Well that's a 1/47 chase.
    I'll gladly accept chasing 100x a flush for a 1 in 47 shot. He'll, give me that draw every hand!! In fact, I've hit the royal (3 at a time) doing so on Spin Poker.

    I tracked all these hands today. If I would've played your way, I'd have $255.00 less!!! And this was on a 25¢ game. Multiply that by 20 for your $5 game and that's what you'd miss out on. No royals would've been made and I made 3 quads by holding the high pair over 3 to a royal. But as I said earlier, if you guys want slightly less EV, go for it.
    Last edited by jbjb; 04-10-2017 at 07:23 PM.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Ha ha! About 8 years ago I hit TWO $1 Royals in two weeks. The game? Ddbp. The draw hand? A pair of A's/4 to Royal..
    As I posted above, I have a few times. A 4 to a royal is a no brainer.

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