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Thread: Do you ever make a a sub-optimal -EV decision... why, and how's that working out for you?

  1. #1
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You don't think twice about breaking up a dealt flush or a dealt straight with four to the royal, do you? Well that's a 1/47 chase.

    Since I don't depend on gambling for my livelihood, I chase the 1 in 1081 every time (except when the high pair is aces).
    slingshot's thread and Alan's response got me thinking too...

    Does anyone here (other than you know who... ) make a sub-optimal gambling decisions? It doesn't just have to be video poker.

    I'll start. I do play the lottery. Just buying the dream of life changing money I guess. Most I've ever won on a pick 6 (Lotto 6/49) was $998.

    I'll also take even money on a blackjack with the dealer showing an Ace at times. I don't count cards, but if I see several non-ten value cards on the layout, I'll take even money. I know it's a bad play, but it doesn't come up that often, and every other time you're playing for an "even money" payout anyway.

  2. #2
    I'm not sure these count as sub-optimal, but let me know what you think:

    1) If some form of state lottery has mega-money, I will occasionally blow $30 or $40 on it. Maybe once every couple of years. I am out roughly $300 lifetime on various lotteries.

    2) Early in an online poker tournament with a lot of entries, if I'm not getting anything accomplished and it's a slow quagmire, I'll push with AK even though I think I'm a marginal underdog to a pair.

    As far as video poker or sports betting goes, I have to play it by the book. I don't do anything I perceive as sub-optimal unless there's some solid reason, like really heavy comp ramifications, that outweigh the sub-optimalism.

  3. #3
    Every bet at a craps table is suboptimal... even the friggin' odds bet (right way).

    I play video poker by the book except with a couple of rare exceptions. Dealt three to the royal when breaking up a high pair (but not aces) is one of them, and I've done it maybe five times in my life.

    There was that one time I held the high pair, and the replacement cards included the royal cards.
    Jason hit a progressive royal at Rincon holding three to the royal and breaking up a pair of queens.

  4. #4
    I don't know if it was subliminal, but I didn't even think-I held the 4-Royal instead of the A's without blinking. I was dealt two high cards in bp and both cards had matching suits that wouldn't reach so I just swept the whole hand and hit quads- taking the decision to a new level. In bp, I went for a four flush near the end of a 100 credit jaunt, missed, and I "felt" I was in a cold cycle, so I immediately switched to ddbp and the first hand was 4 A's WITH kicker. There is a "feel" that ofttimes happens, but is almost always based on reason. I remember picking a couple of cards on a hand and suddenly "seeing" a 3-royal , changing my picks and hitting it before I went too far. No, I don't look for it, it just happens once in a blue moon. 95% of the time I just use common sense.
    Last edited by slingshot; 04-10-2017 at 04:34 PM.

  5. #5
    Not intentionally.

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