It was two years ago today...

[mickeycrimm]

[QUOTE=Alan Mendelson;48620]

Why would you do this at 99% when you figure to have a big edge (25%) and people willing to give action on the two dice puzzle?

If you are going to throw two dice simultaneously, there are 11 combinations of those two dice showing at least one 2 and there is one combination that will show 2-2.

But when you throw two dice simultaneously and after the throw is completed an observer says that at least one of the two dice has landed on two there is a 1/6 chance that both dice are showing 2s.

Does this answer your question?

Very funny, Alan. How does your answer relate even remotely to my question. Think about it, Alan. You figure to have a big edge at the two dice puzzle. You should do like the French dice hustler did. Proposition all of them to a game. I'm sure the Wizard and some of his minions would throw down some heavy dough. You could whack them all and claim victory....along with a shitload of their money. A big feather in your cap. What are you waiting for?

[Rob.Singer]

eddie is a true believer who relies on theory rather than reality. You will never convince him to think rationally. I'd say he's fully vested in the WoV approach system, which as we already know, is managed by a failed AP.

Alan, I believe arci already realizes that negative EV games can produce a profit on any given day. His problem is in coming to grips with how if it happens today then it can happen again (and again) tomorrow, with the many big wins far out-pacing the few large losses. And money management would never enter into the belief system of the AP. It's exactly what I've been arguing with these people for many years now, and it's exactly what my AP gut-wrenching Undeniable Truth column in Gaming Today did for nearly 8 years. It simply does not compute to these misguided guys.....as they continue filling up the machines for me to empty.

[mickeycrimm]

[Someone you actually SHOULD bet with is coach however. Just be real about it and don't expect anyone to go to Montana. And if you play your cards right he might even offer to pay your travel expenses since you can't afford them.

Coach says he only wants to play one roll. That's all he can afford. He's not exactly a high roller there, Rob.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob has written about the $100,000 royal he hit at Bellagio after dumping three queens because he had three to the royal. That one is well known mickey.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob has written about the $100,000 royal he hit at Bellagio after dumping three queens because he had three to the royal. That one is well known mickey.

And I'll never forget how the now deceased "AP" Elliott Shapiro wrote into GT claiming "ha!---Singer didn't really win a thing on that stupid play. In fact, it cost him nearly $275!" Needless to say, publisher Chuck DiRocco smiled endlessly as he held my $100k W2G in his hand while instructing his staff to be polite to the misguided haters who flooded the phones. It was more fun and more satisfying than making and watching Michele Obama try to explain why she "never was proud of living in the US until her lying, racist husband became president".

I walked out of Bellagio with over $93,000 more than I walked in with.

I CAN'T STAND the brilliance level of these AP's!!

[Biloxi Bill]

Rob has written about the $100,000 royal he hit at Bellagio after dumping three queens because he had three to the royal. That one is well known mickey.

And I'll never forget how the now deceased "AP" Elliott Shapiro wrote into GT claiming "ha!---Singer didn't really win a thing on that stupid play. In fact, it cost him nearly $275!" Needless to say, publisher Chuck DiRocco smiled endlessly as he held my $100k W2G in his hand while instructing his staff to be polite to the misguided haters who flooded the phones. It was more fun and more satisfying than making and watching Michele Obama try to explain why she "never was proud of living in the US until her lying, racist husband became president".

I walked out of Bellagio with over $93,000 more than I walked in with.

I CAN'T STAND the brilliance level of these AP's!!

Im sure that made your creditors very happy....Oh wait, no it didn`t

[coach belly]

Coach says he only wants to play one roll. That's all he can afford. He's not exactly a high roller there, Rob.

One roll is the minimum...but I asked how many rolls I can bet on.

I'll take this bet for one roll. I think money well spent if I lose. How many rolls can I bet on?

[mickeycrimm]

Rob has written about the $100,000 royal he hit at Bellagio after dumping three queens because he had three to the royal. That one is well known mickey.

If you tell me you have been playing video poker for twenty some years. And you also tell me you have only hit one royal at $25 denom. Then you are telling me you didn't play much at $25 denom in those twenty some years. When I played video poker heavily on single line I averaged 20 royals a year.

[Alan Mendelson]

I thought I was a heavy player when I hit 8 royals in one year on single line.

[arcimede$]

Rob's system of using win/loss goals doesn't mean you can beat negative expectation games. On the contrary. The win/loss goals allow you to win and walk away with profits from negative expectation games.

Who can argue with logic like this. Nope, can't beat the game but you can walk away with profits. ROTFLMAO

Now would you please reconsider the question asked keeping in mind that one of the two dice has been identified as a "2" and see if you can understand why the answer cannot be 1/11 when only six faces remain to be considered?

This is why you look so foolish, Alan. Nothing in the question identifies the value of either die. Only someone who could write the absolute nonsense you just wrote above would think that it does.

[Alan Mendelson]

[QUOTE=a2a3dseddie;48580]
You have two 6-sided dice in a cup. You shake the dice, and slam the cup down onto the table, hiding the result. Your partner peeks under the cup, and tells you, truthfully, "At least one of the dice is a 2."
What is the probability that both dice are showing a 2?

This is why you look so foolish, Alan. Nothing in the question identifies the value of either die. Only someone who could write the absolute nonsense you just wrote above would think that it does.

Nothing identifies the value of either die, Arc? Are you insane or just senile?

[mickeycrimm]

I thought I was a heavy player when I hit 8 royals in one year on single line.

I was playing close to a million hands a year on quarters with about a 4% advantage.

[mickeycrimm]

If you are going to throw two dice simultaneously, there are 11 combinations of those two dice showing at least one 2 and there is one combination that will show 2-2. But when you throw two dice simultaneously and after the throw is completed an observer says that at least one of the two dice has landed on two there is a 1/6 chance that both dice are showing 2s.

Alan, there are 36 combinations on the dice. It is established that 11 of those combinations include at least one 2. The frequency of rolling 2-2 in 1 in 36. Discounting out that roll there are 10 combinations that have exactly one 2. 36/10 means you will make a roll that has exactly one 2 every 3.6 rolls. So per 36 rolls you will have 10 rolls with exactly one 2, and only 1 roll with 2-2. And it doesn't matter that after the rolls you have information that at least one die is a two.

This is what you will be bucking if you get in a gambling game with it.

[redietz]

I can win if I roll 2-2 before rolling 2-x 7 times.

But I read this is a one-roll exercise, so I'm willing to take jbjb's bet, and Alan can witness...heck he can even roll the dice.

I can be in LV first thing Wednesday morning...what's up jbjb?...are we on?

As far as my million hands of 7-5 BP...I did play them on a 100-play machine....and I was up after a million hands.

I used a Singer-type strategy, dropping down in denomination after I was dealt a FH...assuring myself a profit...even after a million -EV hands.

That's exactly what I would have done to take your 100-1 bet down, but you wormmed your way out of it.

No go find somebody else to troll...you fucking bum.

However you think you can beat negative expectation gambling is fine with me. Why don't you quit your job and go to it full time?

Hey mickey that's exactly what I've been doing every year since 1999, and on a scale that would bring all AP's to their knees, you know, like I brought the entire HP crowd--and really, EVERY singer-hating AP in Vegas--to their knees with my published bet ten years ago. In fact, I even made bigger sissies out of the wizard's bunch as they ran for the hills as soon as a mere $25k bet took on some teeth. They ALL safely chose the ability to keep lying about and disbelieving me rather than facing the music. Just like the anonymous cowards do here....and just as any of you pocket-change specialists would do with the coach. Similar in much the same way as in how the libtards got their asses handed to them by Trump, so all they now have left is to make up lie after lie about him and pretend it's all real.

Rob, refresh my memory on the massive wager. Was it that you put 600K in escrow and would win it how? I'm trying to be impressed, but I need to know the difference between what you did and an anonymous Powerball winner making a bet for 600K and saying he could prove he won it via Powerball. Or maybe somebody winning 100K the year the Greatest Show on Turf won the Super Bowl while opening the year at 300-1 odds. That kind of win is impressive, but without context (how many teams did he really take?), the meaning gets diminished.

[redietz]

Rob has written about the $100,000 royal he hit at Bellagio after dumping three queens because he had three to the royal. That one is well known mickey.

And I'll never forget how the now deceased "AP" Elliott Shapiro wrote into GT claiming "ha!---Singer didn't really win a thing on that stupid play. In fact, it cost him nearly $275!" Needless to say, publisher Chuck DiRocco smiled endlessly as he held my $100k W2G in his hand while instructing his staff to be polite to the misguided haters who flooded the phones. It was more fun and more satisfying than making and watching Michele Obama try to explain why she "never was proud of living in the US until her lying, racist husband became president".

I walked out of Bellagio with over $93,000 more than I walked in with.

I CAN'T STAND the brilliance level of these AP's!!

I'm sure the phones were flooded. Must have been a thunderstorm that day. The drain pipes heading south from Palace Station fill up fast.

Note: That's a plug for Beneath the Neon by Matthew O'Brien.

[mickeycrimm]

Rob has written about the $100,000 royal he hit at Bellagio after dumping three queens because he had three to the royal. That one is well known mickey.

And I'll never forget how the now deceased "AP" Elliott Shapiro wrote into GT claiming "ha!---Singer didn't really win a thing on that stupid play. In fact, it cost him nearly $275!"

Shapiro was a knowledgeable player but I never considered him to be an AP. He was a paid team player and never played on his own money.

Rob anyone can brag after the fact. It's like bragging after you got outhouse lucky and hit the lottery. Do your bragging before you make the big hit, not after.

[Rob.Singer]

However you think you can beat negative expectation gambling is fine with me. Why don't you quit your job and go to it full time?

Hey mickey that's exactly what I've been doing every year since 1999, and on a scale that would bring all AP's to their knees, you know, like I brought the entire HP crowd--and really, EVERY singer-hating AP in Vegas--to their knees with my published bet ten years ago. In fact, I even made bigger sissies out of the wizard's bunch as they ran for the hills as soon as a mere $25k bet took on some teeth. They ALL safely chose the ability to keep lying about and disbelieving me rather than facing the music. Just like the anonymous cowards do here....and just as any of you pocket-change specialists would do with the coach. Similar in much the same way as in how the libtards got their asses handed to them by Trump, so all they now have left is to make up lie after lie about him and pretend it's all real.

Rob, refresh my memory on the massive wager. Was it that you put 600K in escrow and would win it how? I'm trying to be impressed, but I need to know the difference between what you did and an anonymous Powerball winner making a bet for 600K and saying he could prove he won it via Powerball. Or maybe somebody winning 100K the year the Greatest Show on Turf won the Super Bowl while opening the year at 300-1 odds. That kind of win is impressive, but without context (how many teams did he really take?), the meaning gets diminished.

It was a simple bet that I could prove I won $640k in profit to date from using my play strategy after Fezzik and other loudmouths on the Larry Grossman show when interviewing me in the studio, said basically the same things you and other "AP's" lie about here and on WoV: that it's impossible I did what I said I did. So I came back at them with this huge challenge, I put the escrow up, the details were published in two papers, and they ran away from accepting the bet.

Be glad you were not a part of it. The embarrassment did not subside very easily.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob has written about the $100,000 royal he hit at Bellagio after dumping three queens because he had three to the royal. That one is well known mickey.

And I'll never forget how the now deceased "AP" Elliott Shapiro wrote into GT claiming "ha!---Singer didn't really win a thing on that stupid play. In fact, it cost him nearly $275!"

Shapiro was a knowledgeable player but I never considered him to be an AP. He was a paid team player and never played on his own money.

Rob anyone can brag after the fact. It's like bragging after you got outhouse lucky and hit the lottery. Do your bragging before you make the big hit, not after.

First, I met with and played VP with Shapiro at the Suncoast 6 months before my hit. We explained to one another everything about how and what we played; we obviously were complete opposites and he WAS an AP.. He never mentioned playing on one of those stupid teams, and he was playing with his own money while with me. I also met his wife (Joanie I believe) who also played with HER own money.

The fact that I wrote about my $25 royal was not "after-the-fact bragging". It was a simple report--something I did on an almost weekly basis, win or lose. If there were any ongoing bragging, it was about how I had created a consistently winning vp strategy that really didn't rely on playing the highest pay tables.

[slingshot]

And I'll never forget how the now deceased "AP" Elliott Shapiro wrote into GT claiming "ha!---Singer didn't really win a thing on that stupid play. In fact, it cost him nearly $275!"

Shapiro was a knowledgeable player but I never considered him to be an AP. He was a paid team player and never played on his own money.

Rob anyone can brag after the fact. It's like bragging after you got outhouse lucky and hit the lottery. Do your bragging before you make the big hit, not after.

First, I met with and played VP with Shapiro at the Suncoast 6 months before my hit. We explained to one another everything about how and what we played; we obviously were complete opposites and he WAS an AP.. He never mentioned playing on one of those stupid teams, and he was playing with his own money while with me. I also met his wife (Joanie I believe) who also played with HER own money.

The fact that I wrote about my $25 royal was not "after-the-fact bragging". It was a simple report--something I did on an almost weekly basis, win or lose. If there were any ongoing bragging, it was about how I had created a consistently winning vp strategy that really didn't rely on playing the highest pay tables.

I followed the weekly reports. I could hardly believe the stopping of all articles because of a single incident of chasing three A's- a trap I've fallen into several trips. It was kinda sad, as I enjoyed the weekly articles. Everyone focused on the winnings- hardly anyone noticed the losses that sometimes occurred. Even more overlooked were the very short sessions where the win goal was reached within a few minutes.

[redietz]

Hey mickey that's exactly what I've been doing every year since 1999, and on a scale that would bring all AP's to their knees, you know, like I brought the entire HP crowd--and really, EVERY singer-hating AP in Vegas--to their knees with my published bet ten years ago. In fact, I even made bigger sissies out of the wizard's bunch as they ran for the hills as soon as a mere $25k bet took on some teeth. They ALL safely chose the ability to keep lying about and disbelieving me rather than facing the music. Just like the anonymous cowards do here....and just as any of you pocket-change specialists would do with the coach. Similar in much the same way as in how the libtards got their asses handed to them by Trump, so all they now have left is to make up lie after lie about him and pretend it's all real.

Rob, refresh my memory on the massive wager. Was it that you put 600K in escrow and would win it how? I'm trying to be impressed, but I need to know the difference between what you did and an anonymous Powerball winner making a bet for 600K and saying he could prove he won it via Powerball. Or maybe somebody winning 100K the year the Greatest Show on Turf won the Super Bowl while opening the year at 300-1 odds. That kind of win is impressive, but without context (how many teams did he really take?), the meaning gets diminished.

It was a simple bet that I could prove I won $640k in profit to date from using my play strategy after Fezzik and other loudmouths on the Larry Grossman show when interviewing me in the studio, said basically the same things you and other "AP's" lie about here and on WoV: that it's impossible I did what I said I did. So I came back at them with this huge challenge, I put the escrow up, the details were published in two papers, and they ran away from accepting the bet.

Be glad you were not a part of it. The embarrassment did not subside very easily.

LOL -- Rob, I'd never take a bet like that. Not in a million years. Good Lord. Plus if you check, you'll see I've always said I thought you won what you did when you claimed you did. What I disavow is the idea that it works going forward.

Why wouldn't I take a bet like that? It's the old line from Guys and Dolls. Sky Masterson explains that if someone shows you a fresh deck of cards still wrapped in cellophane and wants to bet you that the Jack of Spades will leap out of the deck and spit cider in your ear, do not bet him, my son. Because as surely as night follows day, you'll wind up with an earful of cider.

Words to live by.