Both Caesars and MGM have lowered pays on Bonus Craps

[redietz]

In post 14 above, I got a kick out of Dan. I can just hear Leonard Nimoy's voice saying, "interesting" as he responds to some looney tunes plan from Captain Kirk.

[redietz]

You know, one reason casinos might be increasing the house edge on these bets: If people are willing to bet against a 7% house edge, why not test the limits of human financial masochism?

[Alan Mendelson]

So far, the two biggest critics of the Bonus Craps bets in this thread are two people who don't play craps.

Let me make this simple for you guys to understand: mathematically, craps is a losing game. Your only chance to come out ahead is with the jackpot bets, and of the jackpot bets, the Bonus Craps Small, Tall, All give you the best chance.

What makes your chances so good are that no number needs to be hit twice. In fact, you don't have to even hit a winning bet on a craps game in order to win the Small, Tall or even the ALL.

The average shooter rolls the dice six times, and all you need to do to win either the Small or Tall is to roll five numbers, and you needn't even bet on those five numbers.

The other advantage that the Bonus Craps bet gives you is leverage: one small bet gives a big payoff replacing the need to make many bets that only have smaller payoffs.

You guys have never played craps at a table when every player at the table has money on the Small, Tall, All bets and the shooter throws ten different numbers? Just ten, when the average shooter throws six.

They had to lower the payouts... too much money was being paid out. I am sure the casinos were sold on the Bonus Craps bet being a big profit add-on and I doubt it has been.

[jbjb]

Alan, I'll make this clear one last time. If you REALLY believed you could make money on those bets, You'd give up your business and bet them at TABLE MAX 8 hours a day, 7 days a week. The fact that you don't quit the journalism business and do this proves my point. You CAN'T profit nor make a living off of those bets. I swear you are a shill for Caesars trying to get people to lose money there.

For all rookie and serious gamblers, NEVER make those bets.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well, jbjb... I have a profit making those bets.

I've hit the ALL at least a dozen times (throwing it myself) and I've hit the ALL a dozen more times when someone else was throwing.

And I'm not alone. It's going to come as a shock to you, I know, but there are people who can win at craps, and who do well with the Bonus Craps bets even if they don't make a lot -- or any -- passes.

[Dan Druff]

The only way these bets could be profitable would be via dice control.

As you have admitted you are a big skeptic of dice control, that seems to take away the only possible edge there.

[Alan Mendelson]

Dan just what is your experience playing craps both with and without the Bonus Craps bets?

[House of Orange]

Biloxi Report: Caesars property new lower payouts. MGM property still old payouts but $5 min per bet. Hard Rock has eliminated all bonus bets, too much work was the stated reason. Golden Nugget new lower payouts. Didn't stop at Boyd's property (IP) As of last week.

[bocce ball]

Dan just what is your experience playing craps both with and without the Bonus Craps bets?

Checkmate Dan! You don't play craps, so your argument is invalid.

Although admirably it doesn't bother Alan, my brain would feel better if it had a plausible theory of how players in the aggregate could be crushing a 7% sucker side bet. I've noticed sometimes in the casinos, I have trouble getting an internet signal on my phone. Is it possible that at some tables, architectural or atmospheric factors could possibly block out the math?

[redietz]

Dan just what is your experience playing craps both with and without the Bonus Craps bets?

Checkmate Dan! You don't play craps, so your argument is invalid.

Although admirably it doesn't bother Alan, my brain would feel better if it had a plausible theory of how players in the aggregate could be crushing a 7% sucker side bet. I've noticed sometimes in the casinos, I have trouble getting an internet signal on my phone. Is it possible that at some tables, architectural or atmospheric factors could possibly block out the math?

Math doesn't work inside casinos. Rob has already established that. Casinos, especially CET, are a math-free zone. If you're caught discussing math at a craps table, it's like selling drugs within 300 feet of a school.

[Alan Mendelson]

I had a profit with the Fire Bet too. All you need to do is have $5 and make all six passes for $5000. I did that twice. I also hit five numbers at least a dozen times and four numbers at least a dozen times. Those wins offset a lot of losses on the Fire Bet.

Where do your losses really come? They come when you load up on pass line with odds and betting box numbers where you have a lot of money on the table when a Seven shows and wipes you out.

This is why I developed a strategy of betting the "exotics" with minimal exposure on other bets with small payouts.

Last week I went to a $10 table at Bellagio with $200. I left with about $600. I bet pass line $15 with $3 on the come out for any craps and $5 each on Small, Tall, All. I watched and collected as random shooters threw Smalls and Talls with payouts of $155 each time. I threw one Tall and one Small. Do that math, guys.

Yes, the sevens come... but if you get a little lucky these small bets with big payoffs give you a profit.

By the way... three times a Tall or Small was hit without a pass or without even a repeat number. Had you bet odds or come bet with odds you would have been clobbered at this table but betting only the STA yielded profits.

Refigure your math.

[bocce ball]

I watched and collected as random shooters threw Smalls and Talls with payouts of $155 each time. I threw one Tall and one Small. Do that math, guys.

Thanks, so you're still playing the bonus bets after the downgrades.

Approximately, you're now being paid 31 for a 1-in-38 occurrence.

I'm not really seeing the appeal, but I'm glad it's working for you.

[Dan Druff]

Alan, I don't like browbeating recreational gamblers who enjoy playing -EV games for fun, as perhaps the entertainment factor is worth the money lost.

But it really makes me sad to see you making 18-21% house edge bets.

[Alan Mendelson]

I understand Dan. Yeah, it's bad making those bets with a big house edge, But I feel good when they push the chips to me.

[Alan Mendelson]

I watched and collected as random shooters threw Smalls and Talls with payouts of $155 each time. I threw one Tall and one Small. Do that math, guys.

Thanks, so you're still playing the bonus bets after the downgrades.

Approximately, you're now being paid 31 for a 1-in-38 occurrence.

I'm not really seeing the appeal, but I'm glad it's working for you.

Yes, I am still making the bets, and ironically I still have a profit on the Bonus Craps bets even with the downgrade. At the same time I was winning, do you know who was losing? The "smart players" who bet come with odds, and those who bet max odds -- they lost. They lost because numbers were not being repeated. They also lost because they were betting the "smart way" concentrating on 6s and 8s.

The funny thing is people don't just throw 6s and 8s and they just don't throw enough repeaters to make those come bets with odds pay. The funny thing is people throw all sorts of numbers -- usually just one time -- and those numbers are just enough to complete the Small or the Tall.

So let's get back to the main point: do you really think the casinos DOWNGRADED the payoffs on the Bonus Craps bets because they were making money on them? No, they downgraded the payoffs because they were not making the money they thought they'd be making on these "high edge bets."

[regnis]

I am not one to claim that I make the best bets when it comes to craps, as I love the 10 and the hard 8 and 10. But I bet those when I was throwing the dice and exercising some degree of control. I actually don't ever bet the fire, the ATS, or any of the other carnival bets. But that doesn't mean that I totally disagree with Alan. Craps is a negative expectation game. Every bet except the odds bet has a house edge, and you will get ground down betting the pass (or don't pass) with odds. So you are looking for a brief period of time when the results are favorable, and if Alan is doing this with small money looking for the big hit on the gimmicks, he is still minimizing his exposure. It ain't for me, but you have to beat the math to win at craps, one way or the other.

[Dan Druff]

So let's get back to the main point: do you really think the casinos DOWNGRADED the payoffs on the Bonus Craps bets because they were making money on them? No, they downgraded the payoffs because they were not making the money they thought they'd be making on these "high edge bets."

Yes, they were making a lot of money on Bonus Craps bets over time.

They also realized they could make almost 3x that money by downgrading the payouts.

They also realized that people who made the bets at a 7% house edge would probably also make them at a 20% house edge.

You just proved that theory correct.

[Dan Druff]

Let me compare it to video poker.

You know that Aces and Faces game you liked at Rincon, with a 99.26% payout?

Picture the same game, except paying 5 for the full house (instead of 8), 4 for the flush (instead of 5), and 3 for the straight (instead of 4), and 1 for two pair (instead of 2).

That's approximately a 93% game. Would you play a 5/4/3/3/1/1 Aces and Faces game when you're accustomed to 8/5/4/3/2/1?

I doubt it. In fact, I bet you'd mock that machine.

That was equivalent to the Bonus Bet you were placing before.

Now you're placing a bet almost 3 times worse than that.

[Alan Mendelson]

I am not one to claim that I make the best bets when it comes to craps, as I love the 10 and the hard 8 and 10. But I bet those when I was throwing the dice and exercising some degree of control. I actually don't ever bet the fire, the ATS, or any of the other carnival bets. But that doesn't mean that I totally disagree with Alan. Craps is a negative expectation game. Every bet except the odds bet has a house edge, and you will get ground down betting the pass (or don't pass) with odds. So you are looking for a brief period of time when the results are favorable, and if Alan is doing this with small money looking for the big hit on the gimmicks, he is still minimizing his exposure. It ain't for me, but you have to beat the math to win at craps, one way or the other.

Exactly.

And as I have said before, craps is a NEGATIVE expectation game. There is no way to win at craps UNLESS you do something different and we players got lucky when someone came along and sold the casinos on Bonus Craps. Bonus Craps allows random shooters who can't even make a pass to roll just five different numbers and collect big. You don't even have to be a DI to do this. You don't even have to be a "good shooter" to do this. In fact, bad shooters who throw horn numbers (craps) are the ones who are more likely to hit the Bonus Craps payoffs.

Dan... for someone who has never played craps, now you're telling us what the casino management knows about Bonus Craps? Really, Dan. And how well are you doing at this year's WSOP?

[dannyj]

I understand Dan. Yeah, it's bad making those bets with a big house edge, But I feel good when they push the chips to me.

I wouldn't argue the math but I like betting the bonus bet as well as the firebet. I also love the hard ways. All bad bets, but by default that doesn't mean I will lose. I play recreationally, and if you're not on a hot roll craps can be a grind.