A loss rebate of 100% in cash would work fine. I think the rest of you drank too much AP Kool-aid.
A loss rebate of 100% in cash would work fine. I think the rest of you drank too much AP Kool-aid.
Has anyone yet mentioned Don Johnson, the blackjack high roller (not the Miami Vice actor) who took Atlantic City casinos for $15 million without counting cards? His secret weapon? Loss rebates.
GENERAL BIO: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Johnson_(gambler)
MORE SPECIFIC INFO PERTAINING TO HIS STRATEGIES: https://www.blackjackapprenticeship....son-blackjack/
Good thing he was given cash instead of freeplay because he would have made only 14.8 million. That freeplay is very risky, right Alan?Originally Posted by Count Room
I read a fair amount about that. He turned the competing casinos greed against them. I found it incredible that the casino execs would allow greed to undermine the obvious math. Once they saw the bankroll, they went brain dead.
Hard to believe the decision makers would give a thumbs up to this. It just blows my mind. Math deficiencies may not be terribly uncommon among the 1%ers.
What ever happened to casino execs that actually understood anything about gambling or math?.
No. Johnson had more winning hands than losing hands. He didn't win because he got back 20% of his losses.
What kind of new math are you guys using?
So here's the question: if you made $100 bets at a game with a return of 99.9% and the casino gave you $20 on every bet you lose as a loss rebate, would you be a winner?
This isn't that hard to figure out. If you had access to an M loss rebate promo or an old Cosmopolitan loss rebate every day of the week, it's like what Johnson pulled off with his short-term loss rebates. The M and Cosmo loss rebates, however, are much better. You have to play these at any and every opportunity. The concept just isn't that complex.
This means, roughly, that in a game like 9/6 Jacks or Better, you would get a $20 rebate 13 of every 24 hands. You're turning your loss of 1 unit into a loss of .8 units for those 13 out of every 24 hands.
Alan you're missing the point AP's make under their breath all the time: IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PHANTOM BUCKS.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Any gambler knows these loss rebate promos are only meant to lure in people who have big egos and poor gambling habits. I've only been sucked into a meaningful rebate promo one time--I went in 50-50 with a well known LV vp/slots/sports betting "AP" on the famous Revel $100k rebate that mickey likes to claim he knows all about but as usual, all he did was copy & paste reports from the queers and armchair gamblers over on WoV.
We I each put up $50k and only he went to NJ. I taught him my play strategy and he could only play a 5-level 25c thru $5 spread because the $10 & $25 machines were removed for this promo.. I gave him an $8000 minimum win goal, and in the very small chance he lost then for the multiple weeks he had to go in to play off the free play rebate he was to stay in my sister's guest house just outside Philadelphia.
Naturally he won, as I told him he would if he strictly stuck to my strategy. He actually doubted me, which us why I told my sister not to really expect him. After flight/food/car rental/hotel expenses I think we each cleared +$2800 or something like that.
The "collection of famous AP's" whom Dancer secretly alerted Revel would be there to "hammer the hell out of the Revel"? Yes some appeared, but as these fools just couldn't abide by the clearly posted rules and regulations of the program, many of them were walked out like the idiots they proved they truly were. The regs stated "no card pulling", "no team playing", and "no playing on any card but your own". But the jerks broke every rule and they were all sent packing with 5-figure losses and no chance at the rebate. They deserved every bit of it.
Of course, you'll read on crybaby sites like WoV that "they all got cheated and they're gonna sue the Revel". But I talked to the casino manager before the start of this thing, he sent me a copy of the rules BEFORE my "partner" made the trip, and he told me exactly why all the so-called "big shots" from Nv. we're 86'd. This was a typical AP beatdown, that saw nothing left of their bravado other than the feckless whining on WoV.
Interesting story Rob but I don't understand how a partial rebate can make a player whole?
You posted this on FaceBook... This is the problem with your question here... it is completely different type of "rebate" than is questioned in this thread... What you are saying is EVERY LOSING hand, which is different than a total loss...Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Since you have some experience playing video poker you understand that you may play one hand and lose, and play another hand and win that money back...
Your scenario essentially makes it so a high card (no pair) will pay 1 credit rather than nothing... This will turn a 99.54% return to a 110.53% return....
What the OP is asking about is a promo where if you LOSE $500 you get back $500 in some form. Totally different things than the question you are asking.
There are several questions in this thread.
The original question involves LOSING $500 in real cash, and then getting two payments of free play totaling $500.
The second question I asked (here and on Facebook) is about playing a game with a 99.9% return (negative expectation) and getting a loss rebate equal to 20% of each $100 bet. And the question here is different from the original question. Do 20% rebates ever make you whole at a negative expectation game? You will note that on Facebook there responses were divided with about half saying you will lose. Note that one of the responders is the County Treasurer of Riverside County, Calif, who said you would lose. The reason is 20% rebates at negative expectation games are not enough to make you whole and to win you must have more winning hands.
Regarding the high roller in Atlantic City. I read the articles about how he won. And while he did negotiate rebates he actually won because of the specific rules in the BJ he negotiated which sometimes dealers did not follow allowing him a win. It was that he won the hands -- and not the rebates -- which gave him his big win. All the rebates did was keep him in the game longer to help him get those winning hands.
Ah, Rob. That's the reason I visit this site. Wish there were details on your friend's play that week.For instance, how did you arrive at the $8,000 win goal. Thanks.Originally Posted by Rob.SingerAlan you're missing the point AP's make under their breath all the time: IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PHANTOM BUCKS.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Any gambler knows these loss rebate promos are only meant to lure in people who have big egos and poor gambling habits. I've only been sucked into a meaningful rebate promo one time--I went in 50-50 with a well known LV vp/slots/sports betting "AP" on the famous Revel $100k rebate that mickey likes to claim he knows all about but as usual, all he did was copy & paste reports from the queers and armchair gamblers over on WoV.
We I each put up $50k and only he went to NJ. I taught him my play strategy and he could only play a 5-level 25c thru $5 spread because the $10 & $25 machines were removed for this promo.. I gave him an $8000 minimum win goal, and in the very small chance he lost then for the multiple weeks he had to go in to play off the free play rebate he was to stay in my sister's guest house just outside Philadelphia.
Naturally he won, as I told him he would if he strictly stuck to my strategy. He actually doubted me, which us why I told my sister not to really expect him. After flight/food/car rental/hotel expenses I think we each cleared +$2800 or something like that.
The "collection of famous AP's" whom Dancer secretly alerted Revel would be there to "hammer the hell out of the Revel"? Yes some appeared, but as these fools just couldn't abide by the clearly posted rules and regulations of the program, many of them were walked out like the idiots they proved they truly were. The regs stated "no card pulling", "no team playing", and "no playing on any card but your own". But the jerks broke every rule and they were all sent packing with 5-figure losses and no chance at the rebate. They deserved every bit of it.
Of course, you'll read on crybaby sites like WoV that "they all got cheated and they're gonna sue the Revel". But I talked to the casino manager before the start of this thing, he sent me a copy of the rules BEFORE my "partner" made the trip, and he told me exactly why all the so-called "big shots" from Nv. we're 86'd. This was a typical AP beatdown, that saw nothing left of their bravado other than the feckless whining on WoV.
Another tall story with no proof. Put up your proof. That's what you tell everyone else to do.Originally Posted by Rob.SingerAlan you're missing the point AP's make under their breath all the time: IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PHANTOM BUCKS.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Any gambler knows these loss rebate promos are only meant to lure in people who have big egos and poor gambling habits. I've only been sucked into a meaningful rebate promo one time--I went in 50-50 with a well known LV vp/slots/sports betting "AP" on the famous Revel $100k rebate that mickey likes to claim he knows all about but as usual, all he did was copy & paste reports from the queers and armchair gamblers over on WoV.
We I each put up $50k and only he went to NJ. I taught him my play strategy and he could only play a 5-level 25c thru $5 spread because the $10 & $25 machines were removed for this promo.. I gave him an $8000 minimum win goal, and in the very small chance he lost then for the multiple weeks he had to go in to play off the free play rebate he was to stay in my sister's guest house just outside Philadelphia.
Naturally he won, as I told him he would if he strictly stuck to my strategy. He actually doubted me, which us why I told my sister not to really expect him. After flight/food/car rental/hotel expenses I think we each cleared +$2800 or something like that.
The "collection of famous AP's" whom Dancer secretly alerted Revel would be there to "hammer the hell out of the Revel"? Yes some appeared, but as these fools just couldn't abide by the clearly posted rules and regulations of the program, many of them were walked out like the idiots they proved they truly were. The regs stated "no card pulling", "no team playing", and "no playing on any card but your own". But the jerks broke every rule and they were all sent packing with 5-figure losses and no chance at the rebate. They deserved every bit of it.
Of course, you'll read on crybaby sites like WoV that "they all got cheated and they're gonna sue the Revel". But I talked to the casino manager before the start of this thing, he sent me a copy of the rules BEFORE my "partner" made the trip, and he told me exactly why all the so-called "big shots" from Nv. we're 86'd. This was a typical AP beatdown, that saw nothing left of their bravado other than the feckless whining on WoV.
If I read it right Johnson was getting a 20% loss rebate any day his loss amounted to $500,000 or more. If you bet $100,000 a hand and lose five hands in a row you get $100,000 back. Then you play another five hands for $100,000 and win them all. You broke even on the hands won and lost. You went 5 for 10. But you would be ahead $100,000.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
What a wonderful dream this is... to be able to lose $500,000 and then collect $100,000 as a rebate and then win the next five $100,000 hands in a row!!!!!Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Sorry, out of my league. I can't afford dreams like this.
I took one of your games, Alan, 7/5 Bonus and brought it up on the software. The screenshot should be somewhere in the post. You'll probably have a hard time discerning the stats so I will explain it to you. You can see FREQUENCY for the royal and it says 64.595820. What does that mean? A 52 card deck is on a 2,598,960 hand cycle. That's the total five-card combinations. If you look over to OCCURS EVERY you will see the royal occurs every 40,234.18 games.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
2598960/64.595820 = 40,234.18
Okay, so look down at the nothing hands. You will see they occur 1,416,099.7 games out of a 2,598,960 hand cycle And if you look over you will see they represent 0.00% of the payback. If you got a 20% rebate for those 1,416,099.7 games it would add 10.8974% to the payback.
1,414,099.7 X 20% = 283,219.94
283,219.94/2,598,960 = 10.8974%
Add that to your 98% game and you are at almost 109%.
Go ahead and post this, picture and all on facebook. Then tell the County Treasurer of Riverside County he didn't make the cut to play in my league.
Last edited by mickeycrimm; 07-16-2017 at 06:04 PM.
Gosh... I wish one of you guys would show up at a casino with your bankroll and allow me to video tape and witness how you break the casinos.
Mickey, thanks for the payout table.
So... you are making $100 bets and getting $20 back each time you lose. I'm still not sure how you come out ahead when you are losing $80 with each play on a negative expectation game, and given any reason to believe you will even hit one winning hand?
However, if you do hit a winning hand the REBATE does not help you win, does it?
Using the game you have shown us, REBATES don't make you win. It's hitting the winning hands that make you win. And THIS has been my point all along. REBATES don't make you win. You must hit the winning hands to win.
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