BS AP's

[regnis]

The math is beyond me. however, logically I would think that there is a tremendous difference between the 10,000 hand vs. million hands. In the 10,000, one good hand, 100 times, will certainly skew the results whereas one good hand in a million hand set will not have as much effect. There is a big difference between a million different hands and 10,000 different hands, 100 times.

[redietz]

redietz, right about now you must be wondering just how strange everyone sees you as. Instead of dancing around like some wound-up hummel fairy, just post proof of identity here and now. Then you can post whatever collection of unknown resume' events you'd like, and then individuals can decide for themselves. Constantly dodging the easiest methods here.with the PMing, secret meet offerings, transferring piles of crap to Alan, and now this ridiculous "PR packet" etc. etc. etc. only serve to reduce that which obviously is of the utmost importance to you: how you appear on this forum.

Please wise up.

Yes, Rob, I can understand how professionally published papers, inclusion in national sports newsletters sold in Las Vegas (as opposed to given away), and op eds debating Graham Spanier and Carl Sagan are in no way as impressive as the remarkable expertise you've demonstrated in your Gaming Today columns and on this forum.

For example, you just blew the variance question with your response to mickey. This exact variance topic, by the way, was reviewed here a year ago. Rob, however, doesn't remember.

[coach belly]

The math is beyond me. however, logically I would think that there is a tremendous difference between the 10,000 hand vs. million hands. In the 10,000, one good hand, 100 times, will certainly skew the results whereas one good hand in a million hand set will not have as much effect. There is a big difference between a million different hands and 10,000 different hands, 100 times.

I don't think so.

If the expected number of dealt "good hands" in 10000 dealt hands overall is X, then wouldn't the expectation in 1 million dealt hands be 100X?

Is that a big difference, or is that equivalent?

[coach belly]

Do you really think I'm going to shell out the money for travel, meals, and lodging to go to Nevada, New Jersey or wherever to win a measly $100 from fat belly? If he wants to do it he'll have to come to me.

Hey wormm...I originally offered to bet $10K, but you said that you couldn't cover the action.

I'm willing to bet the maximum, whatever you can cover.

I plan to use a strategy that will win 80% of the time.

I have a 20% chance of losing, but I'm getting 100-1 odds, so it's a good bet for me.

And after all, "It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet."

[mickeycrimm]

Whatever your first bet is that will be the bet for the entire million hands. Last I heard from you....you were licking your chops to get to the 100 plays in Vegas. You didn't give us a trip report. Why not.? You got your ass kicked. Haha!

[mickeycrimm]

The math is beyond me. however, logically I would think that there is a tremendous difference between the 10,000 hand vs. million hands. In the 10,000, one good hand, 100 times, will certainly skew the results whereas one good hand in a million hand set will not have as much effect. There is a big difference between a million different hands and 10,000 different hands, 100 times.

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Alan and bigbelly think they are messing with a piker.

[regnis]

The math is beyond me. however, logically I would think that there is a tremendous difference between the 10,000 hand vs. million hands. In the 10,000, one good hand, 100 times, will certainly skew the results whereas one good hand in a million hand set will not have as much effect. There is a big difference between a million different hands and 10,000 different hands, 100 times.

I don't think so.

If the expected number of dealt "good hands" in 10000 dealt hands overall is X, then wouldn't the expectation in 1 million dealt hands be 100X?

Is that a big difference, or is that equivalent?

Again--without overstepping my math abilities. But let's round very roughly and say that you should get a royal flush twice (really about 1.55) in a million hands. I don't know if the odds are the same in 10,000 hands, because you have only 10,000 initial deals which may not provide the same number of opportunities to even attempt the royal.

I will let the math guys address this---my strength is logic.

[coach belly]

But let's round very roughly and say that you should get a royal flush twice (really about 1.55) in a million hands. I don't know if the odds are the same in 10,000 hands, because you have only 10,000 initial deals which may not provide the same number of opportunities to even attempt the royal.

Are you saying that the player is less likely to hit a royal, because they would be dealt fewer optimal drawing hands?

That wouldn't favor the player, but earlier you wrote that 100-play would skew results in favor of the player.

In the 10,000, one good hand, 100 times, will certainly skew the results whereas one good hand in a million hand set will not have as much effect.

[redietz]

The math is beyond me. however, logically I would think that there is a tremendous difference between the 10,000 hand vs. million hands. In the 10,000, one good hand, 100 times, will certainly skew the results whereas one good hand in a million hand set will not have as much effect. There is a big difference between a million different hands and 10,000 different hands, 100 times.

I don't think so.

If the expected number of dealt "good hands" in 10000 dealt hands overall is X, then wouldn't the expectation in 1 million dealt hands be 100X?

Is that a big difference, or is that equivalent?

Again--without overstepping my math abilities. But let's round very roughly and say that you should get a royal flush twice (really about 1.55) in a million hands. I don't know if the odds are the same in 10,000 hands, because you have only 10,000 initial deals which may not provide the same number of opportunities to even attempt the royal.

I will let the math guys address this---my strength is logic.

Ditto on that, regnis. These are two completely different games. This has been addressed and figured before.

[coach belly]

Whatever your first bet is that will be the bet for the entire million hands. Last I heard from you....you were licking your chops to get to the 100 plays in Vegas. You didn't give us a trip report. Why not.? You got your ass kicked. Haha!

No, I would use a strategy where I change denomination, to finish ahead after 1 million hands.

You don't think that strategy can win anyway, so why are you sweating it?

And I don't need to go to Vegas for 100-play, their are plenty here in AC.

I was willing to travel to LV because that's easier for you to get to.

But you can't afford to travel, there's no 100-play in Montana, and nobody can play single-line fulltime for 6 months straight in Montana.

That's what makes you a wiggly wormming phony...you offered a bet, then after accepted you added conditions that can't be realistically met.

We are rehashing all this...I'm opening up your old wounds, so you are getting testy and nervous. Have a drink to settle your nerves.

After you gather your composure, post the expected number of dealt winners in 10000 hands vs the expected number in 1 million hands.

Because that's what you fear in 100-play, dealt winners...right?

[coach belly]

These are two completely different games. This has been addressed and figured before.

And what was figured?

Are you more or less likely to win after playing 5 million credits through on 7/5BP single-line, or on 7/5BP multi-line?

[regnis]

But let's round very roughly and say that you should get a royal flush twice (really about 1.55) in a million hands. I don't know if the odds are the same in 10,000 hands, because you have only 10,000 initial deals which may not provide the same number of opportunities to even attempt the royal.

Are you saying that the player is less likely to hit a royal, because they would be dealt fewer optimal drawing hands?

That wouldn't favor the player, but earlier you wrote that 100-play would skew results in favor of the player.

In the 10,000, one good hand, 100 times, will certainly skew the results whereas one good hand in a million hand set will not have as much effect.

Coach--I am not posing the question to be argumentative. Rather, I am asking because I don't know the answer but am trying to apply some logic (whether right or wrong). And yes, I felt that 1 good hand applied 100 times would skew the results. What I don't know is whether the lesser number of hands to get the good royal draw offsets this. But again, I am just suggesting that logically, the million hand vs. 10,000 hand x 100 applications may produce different results, regardless of what wizard may have said.

[quahaug]

Getting a dealt royal in 10,000 hands of 100 play would skew the results toward the positive big time. getting a dealt royal playing 1,000,000 single hand would not skew the results much at all.

[quahaug]

It's called variance.

[coach belly]

I felt that 1 good hand applied 100 times would skew the results.

If the expected number of dealt winners over 10000 hands is X, then the expected number of dealt winners over 1 million hands is 100X, so the number of dealt winners is equivalent.

Isn't that correct?

If dealt AAAA X number of times in 10000 hands of 100-play, then you win 40000X credits.

If dealt AAAA 100X times in 1 million hands of single-line, then you win 40000X credits.

How is that skewed?

[coach belly]

Getting a dealt royal in 10,000 hands of 100 play would skew the results toward the positive big time. getting a dealt royal playing 1,000,000 single hand would not skew the results much at all.

Does the big time skewing apply to all dealt winners, or just the royal?

What's the expected number of dealt royals in 10000 hands?

[regnis]

Coach--you are not playing 1 million different hands. You are playing only 10,000 different hands, and therefore any deviation in the variance is not spread over as many applications and thereby skews the results. You could also get a deviation in which you get bad hands over the shorter term, and skew the other way. But the whole idea of a million or 10 million DIFFERENT HANDS is that it evens out. 10,000 is not nearly enough.

[coach belly]

Coach--you are not playing 1 million different hands. You are playing only 10,000 different hands, and therefore any deviation in the variance is not spread over as many applications and thereby skews the results. You could also get a deviation in which you get bad hands over the shorter term, and skew the other way. But the whole idea of a million or 10 million DIFFERENT HANDS is that it evens out. 10,000 is not nearly enough.

Is it more or less likely to skew in favor of the player?

How about the likelihood that the results won't skew on way or the other, that results 10000 hands of 100-play will be the equivalent of 1 million hands of single-line?

[quahaug]

Getting a dealt royal in 10,000 hands of 100 play would skew the results toward the positive big time. getting a dealt royal playing 1,000,000 single hand would not skew the results much at all.

Does the big time skewing apply to all dealt winners, or just the royal?

What's the expected number of dealt royals in 10000 hands?

Dealt royal is around one in 650,000 which being less than one in a million it wouldn't affect the return. Maybe aces with a kicker would apply.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey, playing one million hands on a 100-play machine is still one million draws. I'm sorry, but you should have this debate over on the WOV site. I would love to see the responses there.

I am going just by what the Wizard says, and Grochowski says and what Dancer says. Now, you are arguing with them? Go post your question and arguments over on the WOV site and let me know when they start responding. I will look at the responses there.

Until then, I follow what I've read.