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Thread: BS AP's

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    The math is beyond me. however, logically I would think that there is a tremendous difference between the 10,000 hand vs. million hands. In the 10,000, one good hand, 100 times, will certainly skew the results whereas one good hand in a million hand set will not have as much effect. There is a big difference between a million different hands and 10,000 different hands, 100 times.
    If you have one good hand 100 times that means 100 good hands. And what impact do you think 100 good hands will have when you are looking at 1-million hands overall?

    I can't figure the math either, but I'm going with what the Wizard, Dancer and Grochowski have all said.

  2. #42
    He's not arguing with them, Alan. It's a variance issue. They are two different games.

    Consult your local university math professional.

  3. #43
    redietz, in a million hands, you should get about 23 royals if you figure one royal for 44,000 hands.

    If you got a dealt royal for 100 hands the actual difference in the return isn't that much. It's only an extra 77 royals.

    Someone could also get an extra 77 royals playing a million single lines.

    And for this reason I am sticking with what Dancer, Grochowski and the Wizard ALL said: the expected return is the same.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    He's not arguing with them, Alan. It's a variance issue. They are two different games.

    Consult your local university math professional.
    why would Dancer, Grochowski and the Wizard ALL say the expected return is the SAME?

    This bet is over the RETURN after one million hands. These three experts say the "expected return" is the same with one million single plays and 10,000 100-hand plays. That's the bottom line.

    Now, is this bet about variance or is it about return?

  5. #45
    Alan, you're missing the point. Just because expected return is the same doesn't mean variance is the same.

    Return and variance are two completely different concepts. Coach is a longshot here -- he needs the higher variance game to have a better chance.

  6. #46
    Alan--just to be clear. Are they saying 1 million hands on a single play is the same as 1 million hands on a triple play (3 million hands) or that 1 million hands on a single play is the same as 333,333 plays on a triple play?

    And would they also say 1 million hands on a single play is the same as 1 hand on a million play? Whatever they may say I would say the latter 2 are completely different.

  7. #47
    Regnis, that was a good example. Cuts to the chase. Good luck with this. All I can do, as a non-math guy, is recommend:

    "What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear" taught by Professor Michael Starbird (UT-Austin) for The Great Courses. You can probably get it for under fifty bucks. I watch it every year for a refresher.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Alan, you're missing the point. Just because expected return is the same doesn't mean variance is the same.

    Return and variance are two completely different concepts. Coach is a longshot here -- he needs the higher variance game to have a better chance.
    exactly.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Regnis, that was a good example. Cuts to the chase. Good luck with this. All I can do, as a non-math guy, is recommend:

    "What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear" taught by Professor Michael Starbird (UT-Austin) for The Great Courses. You can probably get it for under fifty bucks. I watch it every year for a refresher.
    I'm still struggling with Arci telling me 2+2=4. So I'm no authority.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    He's not arguing with them, Alan. It's a variance issue. They are two different games. Consult your local university math professional.
    why would Dancer, Grochowski and the Wizard ALL say the expected return is the SAME? This bet is over the RETURN after one million hands. These three experts say the "expected return" is the same with one million single plays and 10,000 100-hand plays. That's the bottom line. Now, is this bet about variance or is it about return?
    When I said 1 million hands I was referring to single line, not 10,000 deals on a 100 play and calling it 1 million hands. It was belly that tried to change it up to 10,000 hands (deals) on a hundred play. He wouldn't have a 20% chance to win like he thinks he does. It would be more like 1 in 40 but if I'm laying him 100 to 1 it would be a negative expectation bet for me. I don't make negative expectation bets.

    There are no 100 plays in Montana anyway and I damn sure ain't going to shell out for travel, meals and lodging when the most I can win is $100. Belly is trying to manipulate. He can kiss my ass. I can't be manipulated.

  11. #51
    Variance is different on 1-million single hand games vs 10,000 100-line game. The expected value or return are the same.

    I know how much some of y'all don't understand theory, but try to bear with me for a second. If there was a 1 million line game and only played one spin, you'd have a pretty good shot at winning. If you were to play a single line game for 1 million spins, you would be an extreme long shot at winning.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Mickey, playing one million hands on a 100-play machine is still one million draws. I'm sorry, but you should have this debate over on the WOV site. I would love to see the responses there.

    I am going just by what the Wizard says, and Grochowski says and what Dancer says. Now, you are arguing with them? Go post your question and arguments over on the WOV site and let me know when they start responding. I will look at the responses there.

    Until then, I follow what I've read.
    If you are going by what they said then what did they tell you about variance?

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Variance is different on 1-million single hand games vs 10,000 100-line game. The expected value or return are the same.

    I know how much some of y'all don't understand theory, but try to bear with me for a second. If there was a 1 million line game and only played one spin, you'd have a pretty good shot at winning. If you were to play a single line game for 1 million spins, you would be an extreme long shot at winning.
    Exactly, belly's absolute best chance to win a bet like this is to bet he would be ahead after one hand. The more hands you add to it the lesser your chances are.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    Dealt royal is around one in 650,000 which being less than one in a million it wouldn't affect the return. Maybe aces with a kicker would apply.
    Are there kickers in Bonus Poker?

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Variance is different on 1-million single hand games vs 10,000 100-line game. The expected value or return are the same.

    I know how much some of y'all don't understand theory, but try to bear with me for a second. If there was a 1 million line game and only played one spin, you'd have a pretty good shot at winning. If you were to play a single line game for 1 million spins, you would be an extreme long shot at winning.
    How about sticking to games that exist and are relatively common?

    What are the odds that the player will be ahead after one million single-line hands, and ten thousand 100-play hands?

    That's playing 5 million credits through either way, and it's been established that the EVs are the same,
    but considering variance what is the likelihood the player will be ahead in each scenario?

  16. #56
    It's very distressing watching the AP spin being put on here. Face-saving at its finest.

    The ER of playing one million hands does not change no matter how many hands are being dealt. You get what you get, and the final result is what this is all about. One deal or a million deals--it makes no difference in the expected result. Or are the APers getting nervous here?

    The argument about variance is irrelevant. Mickey only brought it up because it's what he does when bets and challenges start to take shape. Notice how he, a self-proclaimed always-winning "AP". first danced his way out of going to Nv. or NJ, but when that didn't work he started the 100-play "variance" kick. Pure cowardice....and redietz would naturally side with him because he's still sore over Alan's two $100k jackpots that he'll never experience because he doesn't really gamble.

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Variance is different on 1-million single hand games vs 10,000 100-line game. The expected value or return are the same.

    I know how much some of y'all don't understand theory, but try to bear with me for a second. If there was a 1 million line game and only played one spin, you'd have a pretty good shot at winning. If you were to play a single line game for 1 million spins, you would be an extreme long shot at winning.
    How about sticking to games that exist and are relatively common?

    What are the odds that the player will be ahead after one million single-line hands, and ten thousand 100-play hands?

    That's playing 5 million credits through either way, and it's been established that the EVs are the same,
    but considering variance what is the likelihood the player will be ahead in each scenario?
    If you were to play a million-play game...or a million deals on single play, variance will not affect game ER or EV--unless you start discussing the outcome after the fact. It's all a ploy to keep mickey from getting anywhere near you.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I damn sure ain't going to shell out for travel, meals and lodging when the most I can win is $100.
    You can win any amount that you are willing to cover.

    Your sycophants will probably extend hospitality and take care of your room & board, they get all that comped anyway.

    What do estimate your travel expenses will be? We can work something out.

    I'll give you a rebate on your losses that will boost the EV for you.

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Alan--just to be clear. Are they saying 1 million hands on a single play is the same as 1 million hands on a triple play (3 million hands) or that 1 million hands on a single play is the same as 333,333 plays on a triple play?
    Yes. Yes and Yes.

  20. #60
    mickey there is variance, but the EXPECTED RETURN will be the same.

    Are you gambling about variance or are you gambling about expected return?

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