BS AP's

[coach belly]

Blackasshole and coach belly are trying to go for this "gotcha!" moment.

blackhole is the OP of this thread, and his point is well-taken.

But he's not a party to this challenge, trying to go for a "gotcha" moment.

I think I can be ahead after 1 million hands on a 98% game...and I'm willing to try.

But I would need to play on a 100-play machine, because that's the only practical way to play a million hands in a reasonable amount of time.

And I would use a multi-denominational betting strategy, because that might give me a better chance to win.

I believe these stipulations are fair, and meet the original intent of the following...

I would have no problem laying someone 100 to 1 that they won't be ahead on a 98% game after 1 million hands.

Apparently I have an edge with my strategy at 100-1 odds, I don't know if that's true.

But what was written back in early February still rings true...

Fakers throw these bets and challenges around that are so unrealistic to play out that nobody can accept.

The wormm offered several $10K bets in this thread alone...but he won't put the money up front, he wants to bet $10K on credit.

I can play one million hands in a day...but no, the wormm says he must sit next to me in Montana for six months and watch me play single line.

He's deranged...nothing but a shit-talking phony.

The one and only reason mickey is refusing the 100-play machine--which happens to be the only reasonable machine in a challenge such as this--is because he is financially incapable of going to LV, so he is able to T&C out of the bet. Typical chickenshit.

He also wants no part of playing a multi-denomination strategy because he knows coach may well play my strategy and mickey well knows how often I've won over the years.

Conclusion: mickey is a BS-spewing cowardly sissy.

[Biloxi Bill]

Give it up you broke homo, it`s obvious you don`t even gamble....Stick to your collection of Tiger Beat magazine and other teen boy paraphanelia

[Rob.Singer]

Hey, Rob, still want to bet I'm the R.E.Dietz who won the Wise Guys Contest?

No....I'd like you to prove yourself right here. The only reason you dodge doing so by making it some kind of bet without parameters or anything else, is because you're close to certain no one would bother. And you're kind of like mickey. He routinely makes claims that might probably impress the homeless. Really, the same can be said of yours.

[Rob.Singer]

Mickey worries that Coach might be dealt some big winners and lose to that volatility.

I'm not worried about anything. I'm just not going to make a dumb bet. The chances/odds of being at breakeven or ahead is dependent on the number of times the deal button is hit. Laying 100 to 1 I would have positive expectation on 1 million deals but it would be a negative expectation bet at just 10,000 deals. Consult your favorite mathematicians.

Let's make mickey squirm even more with his own direct quote, as he tries so hard to save face, of course: "ALL I SAID WAS THAT I WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM LAYING 100-1 AGAINST SOMEONE BEING AHEAD ON A 98% GAME AFTER ONE MILLION HANDS".

And there you have it AGAIN--clearly poor mickey, who was probably within the drunken boundaries of his alcoholism when he wrote it, stipulates ONE MILLION HANDS. Does he exclude multi-plays? Nope. Does he expect to "lay" such a bet in shitholes like the Montana bars where it would take months to complete the effort? Nope. So does he expect anyone to accept such a bet.... someone who also clarifies the whole scenario within complete reason--that a 100-play machine be used in either LV or NJ? MOST DEFINITELY, NOPE!

So where are we now? mickey is still trying to remove his foot from his big mouth. He claims he can't afford the trip. Well, he's been told all his expenses would be paid. The he claims a 100-play machine with a 98% game would give the advantage to the coach! This is so funny, and you can tell he never attended any college, let alone graduate from high school.

Here's a flash Mickey--a 98% game has the EXACT SAME ER/EV after one million hands, whether played on a million-play machine, hundred-play machine, or single-play machine. So please stop humiliating yourself, esp. in front of other anonymous, self-proclaimed "AP's". The variance you fear so much goes both ways, math expert. Neither you or coach has any advantage over the other on any machine that's used.

Wise up fool....and man up, pussy!

[redietz]

Hey, Rob, still want to bet I'm the R.E.Dietz who won the Wise Guys Contest?

No....I'd like you to prove yourself right here. The only reason you dodge doing so by making it some kind of bet without parameters or anything else, is because you're close to certain no one would bother. And you're kind of like mickey. He routinely makes claims that might probably impress the homeless. Really, the same can be said of yours.

You're probably right, Rob. I mean, giving professional papers, being published in national publications, winning contests like the Wise Guys and Heritage Sports' Race to the Super Bowl, and having the occasional client like Billy Walters pale in comparison to being an unpaid stringer for Gaming Today, inventing a martingale video poker system, and having absolutely nobody in either the gaming industry or the video poker business go to bat for him. I stand corrected.

[Biloxi Bill]

I can`t stand Rob but I gotta agree with him here...if you have all this bullshit, then just fucking show it for God`s sake...you`d think you`d be foaming at the mouth to prove him wrong....who the fuck wants a "package" in the mail?

[redietz]

I can`t stand Rob but I gotta agree with him here...if you have all this bullshit, then just fucking show it for God`s sake...you`d think you`d be foaming at the mouth to prove him wrong....who the fuck wants a "package" in the mail?

Well, lets see.

(1) I'm a real person. Shipping stuff to other real people seems like reasonable thing to do.
(2) Much of it is copyrighted. I'm not going to publicly post copyrighted material. I can make one copy for "personal use" and ship it to somebody for a one-to-one discussion, but I won't publicly post it. As a writer myself, I would sue the bejesus out of someone who did that.
(3) Rob gets to PM me if he wants to critique the stuff. I like that.

In case you missed it, Bill, try www.playbook.com/Vegas-Wise-Guys for a summary of the Wise Guys Contest.

[Biloxi Bill]

I can`t stand Rob but I gotta agree with him here...if you have all this bullshit, then just fucking show it for God`s sake...you`d think you`d be foaming at the mouth to prove him wrong....who the fuck wants a "package" in the mail?

Well, lets see.

(1) I'm a real person. Shipping stuff to other real people seems like reasonable thing to do.
(2) Much of it is copyrighted. I'm not going to publicly post copyrighted material. I can make one copy for "personal use" and ship it to somebody for a one-to-one discussion, but I won't publicly post it. As a writer myself, I would sue the bejesus out of someone who did that.
(3) Rob gets to PM me if he wants to critique the stuff. I like that.

In case you missed it, Bill, try www.playbook.com/Vegas-Wise-Guys for a summary of the Wise Guys Contest.

I never said you were lying or weren`t believable....just dont see why you wouldn`t wanna shut the guy up....but thats your business

[regnis]

This has just about run its course. I would suggest that Coach offer exact terms and locations. If Mickey doesn't accept how about we kill this thread.

Similarly, Rob--why not let Redietz send you the info?

I guess it's just more fun to continue this stuff endlessly but my logical mind says these issues are easily put to rest.

[redietz]

Bill, you can't just post copyrighted material. The "Tipsters or Gypsters?" have a big-ass copyright notice right on the front page.

I am horrified that people think it's okay to just willy nilly post online anything written by anybody. That's illegal.

[AxelWolf]

While I was a member at WOV I had several back and forth pm’s with Wizardof nothing, and Axelwolf, two of the most alleged successful AP’s at least from the WOV. The conversations were interesting to say the least, and I would have had no problem hooking up with either one of them.

My first attempt was to hook up with Wizardofnothing in Atlantic City. We made a mutual date, time and location to meet. After waiting two hours at the Borgota location to meet I realized he was going to be a no show. When I got home I contacted him via pm again, and he said he didn’t think I was going to show up and didn’t want to waste his time, plus he had plans for later in the day.

Just recently I wanted to hook up with the famous Axelwolf. Being unable to contact him via pm from WOV because they nuked me and nothing works there. Everything I do there says OOPSIE, somethings wrong. I can’t send pm’s at Gambling Forums, so I sent a pm from this site, since I know he posts here.
On July 3, I sent this pm to Axelwolf:

Axel,

Tried sending you a message at WOV but they have my account completely shut down.

Arriving in Vegas 07/08/17 through 07/19/17 with 2 other couples, staying at the Bellagio. Would love to meet you and your girlfriend, and first hand admire the life of a professional successful AP. I'm not interested in learning anything about the secret trade.

We could meet in the lobby and take it from there.

Blackhole


I’m sure this site sends e-mail notifications when you get a private pm. The response was crickets.
Point being, I think the AP’s at least on these bullshit sites are either 2 bit gamblers, homeless, and are just plain full of shit.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey worries that Coach might be dealt some big winners and lose to that volatility.

I'm not worried about anything. I'm just not going to make a dumb bet. The chances/odds of being at breakeven or ahead is dependent on the number of times the deal button is hit. Laying 100 to 1 I would have positive expectation on 1 million deals but it would be a negative expectation bet at just 10,000 deals. Consult your favorite mathematicians.

Let's make mickey squirm even more with his own direct quote, as he tries so hard to save face, of course: "ALL I SAID WAS THAT I WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM LAYING 100-1 AGAINST SOMEONE BEING AHEAD ON A 98% GAME AFTER ONE MILLION HANDS".

And there you have it AGAIN--clearly poor mickey, who was probably within the drunken boundaries of his alcoholism when he wrote it, stipulates ONE MILLION HANDS. Does he exclude multi-plays? Nope. Does he expect to "lay" such a bet in shitholes like the Montana bars where it would take months to complete the effort? Nope. So does he expect anyone to accept such a bet.... someone who also clarifies the whole scenario within complete reason--that a 100-play machine be used in either LV or NJ? MOST DEFINITELY, NOPE!

So where are we now? mickey is still trying to remove his foot from his big mouth. He claims he can't afford the trip. Well, he's been told all his expenses would be paid. The he claims a 100-play machine with a 98% game would give the advantage to the coach! This is so funny, and you can tell he never attended any college, let alone graduate from high school.

Here's a flash Mickey--a 98% game has the EXACT SAME ER/EV after one million hands, whether played on a million-play machine, hundred-play machine, or single-play machine. So please stop humiliating yourself, esp. in front of other anonymous, self-proclaimed "AP's". The variance you fear so much goes both ways, math expert. Neither you or coach has any advantage over the other on any machine that's used.

Wise up fool....and man up, pussy!

Did I include multi-plays? NOPE!!! Rob, you are so stupid but think you are smart. Sure, whether it's one hand or 1 million hands the ER is the same. But I wasn't talking about ER. I was talking about VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. You, Alan, and fatbelly are nitwits. VARIANCE, ask your favorite mathematician. You idiots think VARIANCE doesn't have anything to do with it. You imbecile's never even heard of VARIANCE until I mentioned it. You numskulls don't know anything about VARIANCE, start a thread on WoV about VARIANCE. See what answers you get about VARIANCE.

If you don't think VARIANCE plays a roll then let's do this. Lay me 100 to 1 on just one hand of 7/5 Bonus Poker. If I lose the hand I will pay you $100. If I'm at breakeven or ahead after the hand you pay me $10,000. REMEMBER, YOU GUYS SAY THE NUMBER OF HANDS DON'T MATTER. I just made a proposition to you, Alan and Belly. Now maybe you nin-com-poop assholes might start thinking about VARIANCE before you make a bet.

If you don't take the bet....YER YELLUH!!!!

[AxelWolf]

Blackhole.
I don't get any alerts via Email from this site, or let me say, I don't know what Email I used, so no alerts get to me. I don't log in here often, especially since some people here just tell bold face outrageous lies and then create smoke screens to avoid having to back up their lies. There are too many other forums where I don't have to deal with that. So, I only log in when I'm alerted to something(like I was today by redietz) or I'm in a situation where I'm waiting to do something: Waiting at the airport, at the DMV, at the Doctors office, waiting for my food to come, etc. I wasnt even going to open your PM, I just assumed it was somthing negitive, I even found out you couldn't tell if I opend it or notHowever, I did actually log in and read your PM(I'm not sure what day that was, but yes, it was well within the time frame you were here in Vegas)

I didn't respond right away because I wanted to think about what I had going on at the time. But, more importantly, I wanted to think about the risks VS rewards and how convenient it would be for me. You haven't been a fan of mine or AP in general. I will go so far as to say, you have been kinda nasty at times. I didn't want to say yes, then have something come up or I change my mind, just to have to claim I flaked out.



Someone more friendly than you would probably understand if something came up, but I have a feeling you wouldn't care what the reason was, you would just cry foul. In the past, I have had things come up that prevented me from making a meetup, so sent someone who's on my team in my place. I wouldn't put someone else in that situation with YOU, especially given your derision for AP(s). I doubt sending someone in my place would have been satisfactory to you anyway.

I don't think you are all bad, you have had some civil conversations. I think you have been skeptical, but that's mainly because it's hard to know fact from fiction when it comes to AP when you are not one yourself. There are so many out there who love to fluff everything up by 10x, so I can see why you want to call BS on most evryone.

I really wanted to sleep on it before I responded and discussed the possibility of meeting you. A friendly reply either way would have been proper etiquette, but TBH, at some point, I just forgot about it altogether and that's simply why I didn't reply. It was not really a priority of mine, especially since I had family coming town and other stuff going on. I have a hard enough time meeting up with everyone, people that are actually friendly to me, people who I believe have nothing but good intentions, people whom I get the sense they like me. I had another AP here for the WSOP, someone who I actually wanted to meet up with, unfortunately, I didn't get around to meeting up with them either.

It seems like your main goal is to discredit AP(s) or learn something valuable.
So, I was wondering to myself why you would want to meet up with me, and what would the point be for me to meet up with you. Was it so I can convince you AP was real? Why should I make such an effort to do that? I am not trying to get on radio shows, promote anything, sell anything or get your verification. Even if I were trying to convince you for some odd reason, how would I do that? Would I bring a big wad of cash? Would I bring you a bunch of W2G's? Bank statements, win loss statements, property deeds, pink slips, etc? Am I going to have to sit down with you and then win money? Would I have to show you Advantage plays, if so, what kind, would you want some secret information? I'm not going give people information just to prove anything(especially something good that would actually convince them).

I'm not shy(*note to AM) and I can handle myself just fine in confrontational situations, but I'm not going to go out of my way to engage in that sort of stuff when there is nothing to gain and perhaps something to lose.

The fact is, I have met and done business with more than enough people who know, I am, and whatever I say is real.

I'm not claiming some magic system like some others are. I only claim casinos make mistakes on machine pay tables, Bonus slots, progressives, programming, promotions, tables games, sports, marketing, etc. When I find a mistake that I like I do whatever I need to do to take advantage of it, when it's gone I move on to the next advantage play. Sometimes the advantages are significant and sometimes they are minor. Sometimes there are more things than you have time for and sometimes there's not much of interest going on.

Some people make a killing from AP (Like Don Johnson ) and some people struggle(like the guys playing nothing but Full pay DW .25) and then there's everything in between.

I'm sorry you feel slighted and ignored, I should have made an effort to respond to your PM. You are not the only one I havent responded to for one reason or another, ussully I just forget and the PM gets pushed out of sight, hell, I have well over 100 PM's I haven't even checked on WOV. I am not totally against the possibility of meeting up with you at some point.

[coach belly]

REMEMBER, YOU GUYS SAY THE NUMBER OF HANDS DON'T MATTER.

Who said the number of hands don't matter?

All of the discussion has been about one million hands.

Now you start talking about betting on one hand, where did that come from?

[coach belly]

Blackhole....

Wow, this is a totally pleasant and reasonable post, a breath of fresh air.

The power of positive thinking, good karma, do unto others, and all that.

A rising tide lifts all boats, thanks to AW I'm turning over a new leaf...no more harsh words from me.

[Rob.Singer]

I'm not worried about anything. I'm just not going to make a dumb bet. The chances/odds of being at breakeven or ahead is dependent on the number of times the deal button is hit. Laying 100 to 1 I would have positive expectation on 1 million deals but it would be a negative expectation bet at just 10,000 deals. Consult your favorite mathematicians.

Let's make mickey squirm even more with his own direct quote, as he tries so hard to save face, of course: "ALL I SAID WAS THAT I WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM LAYING 100-1 AGAINST SOMEONE BEING AHEAD ON A 98% GAME AFTER ONE MILLION HANDS".

And there you have it AGAIN--clearly poor mickey, who was probably within the drunken boundaries of his alcoholism when he wrote it, stipulates ONE MILLION HANDS. Does he exclude multi-plays? Nope. Does he expect to "lay" such a bet in shitholes like the Montana bars where it would take months to complete the effort? Nope. So does he expect anyone to accept such a bet.... someone who also clarifies the whole scenario within complete reason--that a 100-play machine be used in either LV or NJ? MOST DEFINITELY, NOPE!

So where are we now? mickey is still trying to remove his foot from his big mouth. He claims he can't afford the trip. Well, he's been told all his expenses would be paid. The he claims a 100-play machine with a 98% game would give the advantage to the coach! This is so funny, and you can tell he never attended any college, let alone graduate from high school.

Here's a flash Mickey--a 98% game has the EXACT SAME ER/EV after one million hands, whether played on a million-play machine, hundred-play machine, or single-play machine. So please stop humiliating yourself, esp. in front of other anonymous, self-proclaimed "AP's". The variance you fear so much goes both ways, math expert. Neither you or coach has any advantage over the other on any machine that's used.

Wise up fool....and man up, pussy!

Did I include multi-plays? NOPE!!! Rob, you are so stupid but think you are smart. Sure, whether it's one hand or 1 million hands the ER is the same. But I wasn't talking about ER. I was talking about VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. Repeat VARIANCE. You, Alan, and fatbelly are nitwits. VARIANCE, ask your favorite mathematician. You idiots think VARIANCE doesn't have anything to do with it. You imbecile's never even heard of VARIANCE until I mentioned it. You numskulls don't know anything about VARIANCE, start a thread on WoV about VARIANCE. See what answers you get about VARIANCE.

If you don't think VARIANCE plays a roll then let's do this. Lay me 100 to 1 on just one hand of 7/5 Bonus Poker. If I lose the hand I will pay you $100. If I'm at breakeven or ahead after the hand you pay me $10,000. REMEMBER, YOU GUYS SAY THE NUMBER OF HANDS DON'T MATTER. I just made a proposition to you, Alan and Belly. Now maybe you nin-com-poop assholes might start thinking about VARIANCE before you make a bet.

If you don't take the bet....YER YELLUH!!!!

mickey, if you're gonna come apart at the seams over this, at least TRY not to look so dumb.

You did not state a thing about the multi-plays just as you said nothing about single-play and in fact, now you're whining that coach had more smarts than you and actually made the bet doable by introducing 100-play. So now all you're doing with your dance is showing how you never had the money or the balls to back up your bravado YET AGAIN!

[Rob.Singer]

This has just about run its course. I would suggest that Coach offer exact terms and locations. If Mickey doesn't accept how about we kill this thread.

Similarly, Rob--why not let Redietz send you the info?

I guess it's just more fun to continue this stuff endlessly but my logical mind says these issues are easily put to rest.

He wants to send me some info? Then he can start by posting proof of accolades here as well as proof of his identity. Anybody can come on and spew this and that, then say they're the man. And all he's doing with the copyright bs is ducking doing anything because surely, the person he claims he is has non-copyright successes too. And there's nothing on the internet??

C'mon man.....

[Rob.Singer]

This has just about run its course. I would suggest that Coach offer exact terms and locations. If Mickey doesn't accept how about we kill this thread.

Similarly, Rob--why not let Redietz send you the info?

I guess it's just more fun to continue this stuff endlessly but my logical mind says these issues are easily put to rest.

He wants to send me some info? Then he can start by posting proof of accolades here as well as proof of his identity. Anybody can come on and spew this and that, then say they're the man. And all he's doing with the copyright bs is ducking doing anything because surely, the person he claims he is has non-copyright successes too. And there's nothing on the internet??

C'mon man.....

I also read axel's effort. Aside from posting a litany of reasons why he may or may not want to meet up with a similarly anonymous personality, he was very clear that there's not an AP on earth who has, can, or has a method of proving anything they claim about themselves. But to agitate matters, don't dare ask any of them to IDENTIFY any of these "secret AP-only plays" to help prove their point.

[kewlJ]

So, I was wondering to myself why you would want to meet up with me, and what would the point be for me to meet up with you. Was it so I can convince you AP was real? Why should I make such an effort to do that? I am not trying to get on radio shows, promote anything, sell anything or get your verification. Even if I were trying to convince you for some odd reason, how would I do that? Would I bring a big wad of cash? Would I bring you a bunch of W2G's? Bank statements, win loss statements, property deeds, pink slips, etc? Am I going to have to sit down with you and then win money? Would I have to show you Advantage plays, if so, what kind, would you want some secret information? I'm not going give people information just to prove anything(especially something good that would actually convince them).

The fact is, I have met and done business with more than enough people who know, I am, and whatever I say is real.

I have had a couple go-arounds with blackhole and others just like him on this very topic of challenging AP's. It always comes down to someone wanting "proof". That is asinine. That tells me the person doesn't not only understand the concept of anonymous message boards, but most certainly has no clue of an AP. I mean what? We are supposed to show tax papers, bank statements, the deed to our house....for what to satisfy some goofball on an internet forum?

I am an AP. An AP of the simplist methods actually, blackjack card counting. I support myself 100% from blackjack and a few other supplemental AP activities, but mostly just simple card counting. I am in my 14th year of doing so. I haven't gotten rich, but make a comfortable living and own (outright) my home in suburban Las Vegas. Anyone can believe me or not believe me....that is your choice. But there is no benefit for me to prove anything to someone who doesn't. Believe what you like....believe the earth is flat. That's ok with me. The thing I like to say during these conversations of credibility is that "It doesn't take all that much to figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". Anyone who can't distingue between the two, probably doesn't want to.

I haven't met Axelwolf. Unlike him, I don't actually meet many AP's....two, to date (excluding the two I am related to and live in my home). As a card counter AP, not looking to team up with anyone from the forums (I have my own small team), there is little benefit and more risk to message board meetups for me. I do know Axel from a couple different forums (and at times don't like him very much as he can be a dick), but I can assure you he is the real deal as far as an AP. I am sure that doesn't carry much weight coming from me. Few know me here. I have posted a half dozen times and not in over a year. (There is a reason for that....).

I don't care if people choose to believe me or not. It has no bearing on me, my life or my livelihood. I don't care if people choose to believe Axel, or Mickey or RS, but these are legit AP's who don't have to prove anything. Their word is golden. It goes back to what I said earlier: "It doesn't take all that much to figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". Anyone who hasn't figured it out with these guys and maybe some others on the site as I don't read often, just doesn't want to figure it out. There is no proof that would satisfy them anyway.

That's all. I am done. Maybe I'll be back in a year.

[Alan Mendelson]

Redietz; suppose there are forum members who don't want you to have their name or address?

Also, there are ways under the copyrights that you could still show your name/credits attached to various publications.