Grochowski on "advantage video poker"

[Alan Mendelson]

For those of you who live by the math: casino comps are always given at an amount less than the house's expected win. This insures the house to win.

Of course you can get lucky. But don't claim that because of comps you are beating the house. If you beat the house it's because you won at the game. It's got nothing to do with your room, show tickets, free play, cash back or even your loss rebate.

Get over it.

Alan, I live by the math and you are misrepresenting me here. I'm not the one playing a negative game and chasing comp. YOU ARE THE ONE THAT DOES THAT.

Mickey are you losing playing your positive games and then making up the loss with comps? I don't think so. And that was the point being made.

Grochowski writes about APs playing negative expectation games and then scoring on the casino comps.

Mickey, sometimes it's not about you.

[Alan Mendelson]

And by the way, I know that casino comps are only worth of fraction of the house's edge on various games. I don't pretend that my comps exceed my losses. I also don't think that Seven Stars is actually worth being Seven Stars.

[Rob.Singer]

Finally, somebody said it....and I will clarify it.

The biggest HOAX as perpetrated by the self-described "AP" crowd--and fortified by any number of ap groupies--is that these people use tournaments, drawings, giveaways, and even a sunny day or two as props for their supposed crutch to go from 99.5% to 100.1%, thereby creating a "winner" out of thin air. And that's exactly why these imposter AP's from WoV show up here with nothing other than claims of wildly high "edges" while cloaked in anonymity, secrecy....and to the well informed reader--BS.

redietz, my statement that no one makes money off of FPDW stands. Unless and until someone comes forward with proof that they've won on these machines over time without abnormal good luck, I'll believe the numbers I saw on the Wynn machines--and then published them with their permission in GT. And guess who were the exclusive players of every FPDW game there? Yes, every big-ego AP who claims to be of the best players, the fastest players, the most accurate players, and the most feared players ever to come down the pike. Over time, they all lost.

[Alan Mendelson]

Hold on a second Rob. There can be and there are individual winners. But that doesn't mean the casino isn't the big winner.

I am sure you saw the totals at the Wynn, but you didn't see the results of each and every individual player. I am sure there are individuals who have a profit just as you have profits. But I don't doubt that Wynn and all casinos overall have profits.

[redietz]

Hold on a second Rob. There can be and there are individual winners. But that doesn't mean the casino isn't the big winner.

I am sure you saw the totals at the Wynn, but you didn't see the results of each and every individual player. I am sure there are individuals who have a profit just as you have profits. But I don't doubt that Wynn and all casinos overall have profits.

Yeah, Rob's guilty of his logical fallacy/non sequitur yet again. He makes a first factual statement. He makes a second statement that is unrelated, then draws a logically fallacious conclusion that he presents as some kind of fact. The conclusion, however, in no way follows and is highly speculative and illogical. I would appreciate it if someone else took up the task of correcting Rob when he does this.

I have no doubt the house edge on FPDW is at least 1.5%. Civilians butcher this game every day. Have you ever actually watched people play the game? The Wynn's 1.5% win was smaller than I would have expected.

Rob made the statement (without direct evidence) that because the Wynn profit was 1.5% that the APs all lost. Wow, that's a reach and a half. To me, the 1.5% house profit suggests that a lot of APs won, because I think house profit on this game should probably be around 3%. To reach the conclusion that ALL APs lost, one first has to establish that they lost as a group. That has NOT been established. All that's been established is that the general population lost.

Rob draws the completely illogical conclusion that because he decided without direct evidence that APs lost, therefore NO APs won. That doesn't even follow from the (probably) incorrect speculation that APs lost as a group.

So Rob stands by his statement that NO ONE has won on the FPDW machines unless they provide him direct evidence. He basically calls me a liar based on his illogical contortionist thinking. I'm not a liar. I'm ahead on FPDW lifetime. I'm ahead on the Palms' machines. I'm ahead lifetime on video poker, and probably 70% of what I've played is FPDW or NSUD.

There is a theme in this. Rob once again does not discern between general population stats and AP stats. He just assumes any stats apply to APs as well as civilians. Now the implication of this way of thinking is that there are only two categories -- losers (everybody but Rob) and Rob. No separate category for APs, which would put them in direct competition for expertise with (guess who) Rob. It's either Rob's way or the losers' way.

No surprise that "the world's greatest video poker player" is leaking hubris all over the place. It's ridiculous.

[Alan Mendelson]

why must APs win? I'm sure there are a lot of casual gamblers who get lucky and win too. "Winning" is not the property of APs.

About five years ago I hit a progressive royal at Rincon when a team of four players were there. There were five machines linked to the progressive at the time (maybe it was six, I really don't remember). They were pounding away but I hit the royal.

[jbjb]

why must APs win? I'm sure there are a lot of casual gamblers who get lucky and win too.

I'll tell you the difference. If we both went to a casino today and both lost $100, you'd still be a net losing gambler and I'd still be a net winning gambler. Conversely, if we both won $100, you'd STILL be a net losing gambler and I'd STILL be a net winning one. The ONLY thing that matters is overall results. Not today's win or loss.

Ask KJ. As a lone card counter, he knows all about having many consecutive losing days. But he's still a winning gambler/AP OVERALL.

[Alan Mendelson]

Yeah jbjb... you're absolutely correct. I've NEVER had a winning year.

[kewlJ]

I've NEVER had a winning year.

Well, you should try it. You might like it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Thanks but I am very happy.

[jbjb]

That's debatable.

[Alan Mendelson]

That's debatable.

Maybe you'll figure it out someday. Others already have. LOL

[mickeycrimm]

Finally, somebody said it....and I will clarify it. The biggest HOAX as perpetrated by the self-described "AP" crowd--and fortified by any number of ap groupies--is that these people use tournaments, drawings, giveaways, and even a sunny day or two as props for their supposed crutch to go from 99.5% to 100.1%, thereby creating a "winner" out of thin air. And that's exactly why these imposter AP's from WoV show up here with nothing other than claims of wildly high "edges" while cloaked in anonymity, secrecy....and to the well informed reader--BS.

redietz, my statement that no one makes money off of FPDW stands. Unless and until someone comes forward with proof that they've won on these machines over time without abnormal good luck, I'll believe the numbers I saw on the Wynn machines--and then published them with their permission in GT. And guess who were the exclusive players of every FPDW game there? Yes, every big-ego AP who claims to be of the best players, the fastest players, the most accurate players, and the most feared players ever to come down the pike. Over time, they all lost.

Rob, I have a few problems with your assertions. First, what meter did you get to look at? Those were multi-game machines. There is a coin-in/coin-out for overall results of the machine that includes all games. If you want to see what each individual game held then you have to go to different coin-in/coin-out meters.

Second, what issue of Gaming Today did you publish this in? Can you put up a copy of the article here? Or do you have some excuse like a phantom storage unit in New Mexico? If you published it then it would have been big news in the gambling forums, especially vpFREE. But I don't recall any such news. Or maybe this is just another fairy tale you concocted.

Third, that bank got a lot of action. Almost 24/7 for the short time it lasted. So they were making 1.5% on dollar games? And they pulled it? The first question is why? But you know what happened. When they pulled the game it turned that bank into a ghost town. Now, I understand, maybe when they pulled it they were thinking "we could make more money off these guys if we take that game off and let them play the sucker games." But like I said, the bank went from fulltime action to zero action. Now, after seeing that, don't you think those execs would have thought "Well, that didn't work. Let's put the game back on and just take the 1.5%."

What would you rather have, Rob, 3% of nothing or 1.5% of something?

[RS__]

Wow, casinos suuurrrre are stupid!

APs "think" FPDW is a good game to play. If available for higher denominations, they'll play them practically non-stop.

But casinos know they make money on FPDW games because <insert Rob Stringer's stupid analysis here>.


If casino's were smart, they'd put in FPDW from nickel denom up to $100 denom (or whatever max they're comfortable with).

APs will play them non-stop and casinos will just rake in the money.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey I thought it was funny when you wrote what would a casino rather have, 1.5% of something or 3% of nothing? As you may know I do some advertising and marketing work for some casinos. One night I'm having dinner with a top gun at a big casino company and I asked him: why don't you improve your pay tables on Bonus from 7/5 to 8/5? Your video poker area gets no business. Wouldnt you like people in those seats and it's still a money-making game? He looked at me as if he had no idea what I was talking about. Then the next course came.

Frankly I don't think these casinos really care if there are bodies in seats or not. They have their plans and they stick to them.

[Alan Mendelson]

Please read what Grochowski wrote about FPDW regarding the need for a royal to be a positive play. Do you APs really get royals on schedule to maintain a positive return. If you do, that's amazing. I'm not going to ask your secret for hitting royals on schedule because I don't have the money to pay for it. You see, my royals don't come on schedule.

[RS__]

Please read what Grochowski wrote about FPDW regarding the need for a royal to be a positive play. Do you APs really get royals on schedule to maintain a positive return. If you do, that's amazing. I'm not going to ask your secret for hitting royals on schedule because I don't have the money to pay for it. You see, my royals don't come on schedule.

I don't play FPDW, but I have hit many royals. I'm not sure what hitting them "on schedule" has to do with anything. Of course there's going to be variance.

If I hit 3 royals this month, I don't care if all 3 were on the 1st, all on the 31'st, or one each on the 1st, 15th, and 31st. Do you think it matters?

[Alan Mendelson]

If you are not hitting Royals on schedule then you're not getting the full pay of full pay Deuces Wild.

[RS__]

If you are not hitting Royals on schedule then you're not getting the full pay of full pay Deuces Wild.

That's true.....although I think everyone (relative) knows that.

Aaaaand your point....?

[Rob.Singer]

Finally, somebody said it....and I will clarify it. The biggest HOAX as perpetrated by the self-described "AP" crowd--and fortified by any number of ap groupies--is that these people use tournaments, drawings, giveaways, and even a sunny day or two as props for their supposed crutch to go from 99.5% to 100.1%, thereby creating a "winner" out of thin air. And that's exactly why these imposter AP's from WoV show up here with nothing other than claims of wildly high "edges" while cloaked in anonymity, secrecy....and to the well informed reader--BS.

redietz, my statement that no one makes money off of FPDW stands. Unless and until someone comes forward with proof that they've won on these machines over time without abnormal good luck, I'll believe the numbers I saw on the Wynn machines--and then published them with their permission in GT. And guess who were the exclusive players of every FPDW game there? Yes, every big-ego AP who claims to be of the best players, the fastest players, the most accurate players, and the most feared players ever to come down the pike. Over time, they all lost.

Rob, I have a few problems with your assertions. First, what meter did you get to look at? Those were multi-game machines. There is a coin-in/coin-out for overall results of the machine that includes all games. If you want to see what each individual game held then you have to go to different coin-in/coin-out meters.

Second, what issue of Gaming Today did you publish this in? Can you put up a copy of the article here? Or do you have some excuse like a phantom storage unit in New Mexico? If you published it then it would have been big news in the gambling forums, especially vpFREE. But I don't recall any such news. Or maybe this is just another fairy tale you concocted.

Third, that bank got a lot of action. Almost 24/7 for the short time it lasted. So they were making 1.5% on dollar games? And they pulled it? The first question is why? But you know what happened. When they pulled the game it turned that bank into a ghost town. Now, I understand, maybe when they pulled it they were thinking "we could make more money off these guys if we take that game off and let them play the sucker games." But like I said, the bank went from fulltime action to zero action. Now, after seeing that, don't you think those execs would have thought "Well, that didn't work. Let's put the game back on and just take the 1.5%."

What would you rather have, Rob, 3% of nothing or 1.5% of something?

mickey you're such an idiot when you're drinking.

First, who keeps copies of old papers unless they live slug lives like you. Maybe you can get the online version direct from GT, but you might have to pay ten bucks for it, which would be a deal killer to somebody like you.

Nobody looked at "meters" you moron. If you knew anything about analyzing a business or accounting methods you'd know the reports generated from the results are what gets analyzed--not a bunch of suits sitting around every machine wetting their pants waiting for some cigarette-smoking lowly paid tech to pull up the "meters". Those are what they showed me, and the reason they did was to let me know the very low house hold on most of the games on these machines compared to the avg. hold on the rest of the vp machines, did not meet Steve Wynn's required profit margin--which is what execs care about more than anything else. They may or may not have made more money for them than some other banks of machines--that info was not allowed to be shared with me for my article. This--and the fact that Wynn was appalled when he saw teams/families of Chinese people slurping noodles and eating fish sandwiches at his machines--were the reasons given to me and what I wrote about why the machines were taken out.

So wise up, and stop feeling bad about the phony fantasies of being an AP. Get your teeth cleaned instead. You'll feel better.