The value of "proof"

[Alan Mendelson]

There have been many comments here concerning proof. People claim something and their critics want to see their proof of their claims.

For me, the proof doesn't matter. What matters to me is whether or not the claims and the information behind the claims will help me win in casinos.

It doesn't matter to me what articles Redietz authored, but what would matter to me is if he has information that will help me win. I am not a sports bettor so his information isn't what I'm looking for.

My friend Rob has made various claims and frankly while I have seen enough proof to believe what I do believe, his claims really have no impact on me either. This is because I don't follow much of his strategy though I do embrace the concept of win goals and loss limits.

Claims about counting cards at two blackjack tables simultaneously? Well, these claims abound but I know I couldn't do it. I've sat at blackjack tables and looked and I know I don't have the vision (x-ray or otherwise) to count cards at two tables simultaneously.

Claims about tax returns showing profits? Hey -- if somebody else won what do I care. ONLY if I could also win using their strategy does it matter. And so far, what the tax returns are showing is that people are not correctly following the tax law, so as far as I'm concerned the tax returns don't support any claims.

[redietz]

There have been many comments here concerning proof. People claim something and their critics want to see their proof of their claims.

For me, the proof doesn't matter. What matters to me is whether or not the claims and the information behind the claims will help me win in casinos.

It doesn't matter to me what articles Redietz authored, but what would matter to me is if he has information that will help me win. I am not a sports bettor so his information isn't what I'm looking for.

My friend Rob has made various claims and frankly while I have seen enough proof to believe what I do believe, his claims really have no impact on me either. This is because I don't follow much of his strategy though I do embrace the concept of win goals and loss limits.

Claims about counting cards at two blackjack tables simultaneously? Well, these claims abound but I know I couldn't do it. I've sat at blackjack tables and looked and I know I don't have the vision (x-ray or otherwise) to count cards at two tables simultaneously.

Claims about tax returns showing profits? Hey -- if somebody else won what do I care. ONLY if I could also win using their strategy does it matter. And so far, what the tax returns are showing is that people are not correctly following the tax law, so as far as I'm concerned the tax returns don't support any claims.

Off the top of my head, this posts borders on silly. Proof is objective. Deciding what helps "you" win, as opposed to everyone else, is subjective. If someone has a winning record betting sports over decades, that person wins. If you decide to not avail yourself of that person when you bet sports yourself, that's a subjective call. If you decide that you don't bet sports because it's not your cup of tea, that's subjective.

So what some people do is decide they will bet this or that or another thing particular ways, and then search out advice that they decide should help them, ignoring what gambling textbooks say or what people populating the field say, or what people who appear to actually win recommend. These folks searching out advice for their style of play (and no other) are content losing, and some I suspect prefer losing. There are myriad theories in the fields of the psychology of gambling and risk-taking that discuss why many, maybe most, people prefer to lose.

Some people want proof so they can discern who knows what they're talking about. Some people prefer ignorance. Some people prefer to lose. So they keep losing. Nobody's breaking their balls for losing. What annoys the people trying to win is when the losers decide they know best and they offer advice to audiences that makes zero sense while knowing their advice would get them an F in a freshman probability class. So what do they do? They make 5000 posts without any math, or they make 5000 posts with all kinds of claims and theories without ever consulting mathematicians, who are a phone call away.

A reasonable person might ask, "Why no math? Why no phone calls? Are they nuts, or do they simply prefer that other people lose?"

[Alan Mendelson]

Math proves nothing redietz. You don't need math to prove something has happened. In fact things happen despite the math.

I said this before. And I'm not alone.

Rob Singer does not need math to prove to us his method won a million dollars BUT W2Gs would prove it.

Math doesn't dispute that a random roller threw 18 yos in a row.

In fact redietz if you must rely on the math, the math says you don't exist... but you do, don't you?

See http://www.businessinsider.com/infog...g-alive-2012-6

[AxelWolf]

For me, the proof doesn't matter. What matters to me is whether or not the claims and the information behind the claims will help me win in casinos.

As I suspected for a long time. It was the same sense I got from some other "well known"AP critics.

You got some smart people with many personal and/or career achievements in life, guys who love to gamble as a hobby and have been doing it for years, but they can't seem to figure out how to make money gambling(that must suck knowing guys are out there crushing it at times).

Meanwhile, some rail tramp who liked to drink, or some young punk smart ass kid, or some guy who was broke when he started, even guys who are highly educated with other successful careers found a way to be successful at gambling/AP. That seems to really piss the hobby ploppys off, some to the point of hateful jealousy. They always claim that's not true, blah blah blah(who the hell is going to admit that anyway?). I guess It's easier to bash AP(s) and say it isn't real rather than admit to yourself and others that you have been gambling for years. And even though you have access to online, books, other successful gamblers, but still haven't figured out how to beat the casinos.

I'm not sure if it's pride, bitterness, hate or just the way some people are wired, whatever the case, the AP detractors seem to love calling out AP(s) as BS just for sport. Some detractors seem to do it thinking it will somehow goad AP's into giving up the necessary information needed to beat the casinos. I don't think that's the right approach if you really want to know about AP, especially given the nature of AP. It's not very beneficial creating competition, giving information out to a big mouth or feeding information to someone with another agenda(someone looking to write about AP or make money in other ways from gambling). That's how we got people like T-Eliot.

Sometimes it only takes something small to make things click for an aspiring AP. There are many of cases where the person was not even looking to get into AP, it just kinda happened after finding the right situation and meeting the right guy.


I have helped others with AP, however, its usually people I think will be good allies and it will be beneficial for both them, me and people I do stuff with. I can't imagine I would want to be involved with someone being an ass hat online, especially someone who seems to have disdain for AP(s) for whatever reason. There are plenty of good guys out there who respect the business and the people in it, guys who would love the opportunity to learn more without any hidden agendas.

[jbjb]

W-2's don't prove shit either. Case in point Alan, your son and his "5 royals within 24 hours and still lost money" scenario.

Every conceivable thing known in this universe, whether you want to believe it or not, is here because of math. If you don't think this is true, then you need to go and take physics and chemistry classes again.

[Rob.Singer]

As usual, redietz tries to make another mountain out of a mole hill, while simultaneously displaying his agitation and lies about what I've done and how Alan's reacted to it. It's posts like these that would lead any educated person to question to veracity and credibility of what he's claimed about himself.

I have no doubt the former Mrs. Dancer is indeed a lifetime winner, because we've seen a picture of her $400,000 royal, and she rarely played prior to hitting it. Simply use your head to figure this out and you will come to the same conclusion.

We know Alan plays and sometimes plays at limits most here cannot, because he has provided pictures. But does he win? Smartmoney says he has and does, because he understands the concept of money management, using win goals, and quitting at some positive point when ahead. It should also be understood by anyone with half a brain that with all his ex's, it would not behoove him to blab about ever being an overall winner. So once again, we use our heads.

Most sensible people would understand that I have won over the years because I've put up pictures of huge hits, some of my articles in GT had similar pictures, and people know that I've played big. Again, we rely on pictures to make a determination. It's a good start, and really, all there is beyond that is either the word of the player or how people have reacted to, in my case, the largest single published challenge (bet) in video poker history. Add this all up and what does smartmoney say?

Which leads us to what the APs claim. They have no pictures to go along with their claims, and they come up with the most humiliatingly outrageous while unverifiable bloviations that they use thinking others will use it as a way to believe them when they claim to win. And when that doesn't work because it never does, they take the easy way out and proclaim "we win because the math books on theory say we should....and every university math professor will attest to that!"

So who you going to believe--people who post pictures and the resulting application of simple common sense afterwards in order to make as accurate an educated guess as possible....or a group of people who can't even prove that they play, and who shamelessly hide behind book theory and "industry secrets" as their method of persuasion?

[AxelWolf]

Math proves nothing redietz. You don't need math to prove something has happened. In fact things happen despite the math.

I said this before. And I'm not alone.

Rob Singer does not need math to prove to us his method won a million dollars BUT W2Gs would prove it.

Math doesn't dispute that a random roller threw 18 yos in a row.

In fact redietz if you must rely on the math, the math says you don't exist... but you do, don't you?

See http://www.businessinsider.com/infog...g-alive-2012-6

W2g's don't prove anything other than what jackpots you hit. As you already know (since your son hit 5 RFs in one day and still lost) You can be down 200k and have 100k in W2G's.

W2g's along with a win loss statements and tax returns would be more than sufficient. God bless you if you can get someone to give all that information up just to prove something to you or the other members of a forum. Unless somome is promoting themselves or have somthing significant on the line, I dont know what AP would put that suff out there.

There are plenty if situations where the math and logic IS good enough to estimate how one did. For example: If someone has a W2G or a picture of a $1 dealt sequential RF with a progressive amount of 500k it would be safe to say they made a shit ton of money.

If someone was playing .25 full pay machines all day to earn drawing tickets and they get called for 20k it's obvious they made money.

Anytime your start getting in the 5% advantage range(assuming the advantage isn't coming from rare hits) where someone has put in a significant amount of hours, you can use the math and figure out within reason how much they made.

[Rob.Singer]

For me, the proof doesn't matter. What matters to me is whether or not the claims and the information behind the claims will help me win in casinos.

As I suspected for a long time. It was the same sense I got from some other "well known"AP critics.

You got some smart people with many personal and/or career achievements in life, guys who love to gamble as a hobby and have been doing it for years, but they can't seem to figure out how to make money gambling(that must suck knowing guys are out there crushing it at times).

Meanwhile, some rail tramp who liked to drink, or some young punk smart ass kid, or some guy who was broke when he started, even guys who are highly educated with other successful careers found a way to be successful at gambling/AP. That seems to really piss the hobby ploppys off, some to the point of hateful jealousy. They always claim that's not true, blah blah blah(who the hell is going to admit that anyway?). I guess It's easier to bash AP(s) and say it isn't real rather than admit to yourself and others that you have been gambling for years. And even though you have access to online, books, other successful gamblers, but still haven't figured out how to beat the casinos.

I'm not sure if it's pride, bitterness, hate or just the way some people are wired, whatever the case, the AP detractors seem to love calling out AP(s) as BS just for sport. Some detractors seem to do it thinking it will somehow goad AP's into giving up the necessary information needed to beat the casinos. I don't think that's the right approach if you really want to know about AP, especially given the nature of AP. It's not very beneficial creating competition, giving information out to a big mouth or feeding information to someone with another agenda(someone looking to write about AP or make money in other ways from gambling). That's how we got people like T-Eliot.

Sometimes it only takes something small to make things click for an aspiring AP. There are many of cases where the person was not even looking to get into AP, it just kinda happened after finding the right situation and meeting the right guy.


I have helped others with AP, however, its usually people I think will be good allies and it will be beneficial for both them, me and people I do stuff with. I can't imagine I would want to be involved with someone being an ass hat online, especially someone who seems to have disdain for AP(s) for whatever reason. There are plenty of good guys out there who respect the business and the people in it, guys who would love the opportunity to learn more without any hidden agendas.

When a topic gets to the core of the truth about phony AP's and their claims, the phoniest of AP's will respond in a language all their own.

[AxelWolf]

W-2's don't prove shit either. Case in point Alan, your son and his "5 royals within 24 hours and still lost money" scenario.

Every conceivable thing known in this universe, whether you want to believe it or not, is here because of math. If you don't think this is true, then you need to go and take physics and chemistry classes again.

LOL. I had not read your post, we were thinging the same thing.

[kewlJ]

Math proves nothing redietz.

This is where you are absolutely 100% wrong. Math matters. Gambling like most things in life are all about Math.

What you are latching on to is pure fantasy. 1 in a billion or longer possibilities (18 consecutive yos or Rob winning a million dollars with a negative expectation, progressive system). Pure fantasy. Alternative reality stuff.

Gamblers believe in that fantasy stuff. AP's believe in the math. The casino industry believes in the math. That is precisely why you are given a fancy tier level and perks to return and AP are discouraged, given little or zero in perks and banned or barred from playing. You not being able to see the difference is exactly why you are a casino VIP.

As for proof: just asking for proof shows a complete lack of understanding on what an anonymous forum really is. No one is required or going to prove anything to you. Very rare that they will. There just is no benefit to doing so. And you don't even have a right to request that of anyone. It is your responsibility to figure out "who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". Do the work. Investigate and that most certainly includes doing and figuring the math. Don't just be lazy and scream "show me the proof".

In the end if you choose to believe something when the math says the opposite, or you choose to believe something impossible when the math say it is possible and/or likely, that is on you. You are free to live in whatever fantasy world you like. Just be sure to keep the casinos updated as to your current address because they are going to want to stay in contact with someone like you.

[Rob.Singer]

I doubt very much whether the anonymous jbjb or especially the articulate axelrod or whatever fake name he uses, has ever taken a chemistry or physics class. An obvious, accurate deduction.

[jbjb]

Math proves nothing redietz.

This is where you are absolutely 100% wrong. Math matters. Gambling like most things in life are all about Math.

What you are latching on to is pure fantasy. 1 in a billion or longer possibilities (18 consecutive yos or Rob winning a million dollars with a negative expectation, progressive system). Pure fantasy. Alternative reality stuff.

Gamblers believe in that fantasy stuff. AP's believe in the math. The casino industry believes in the math. That is precisely why you are given a fancy tier level and perks to return and AP are discouraged, given little or zero in perks and banned or barred from playing. You not being able to see the difference is exactly why you are a casino VIP.

As for proof: just asking for proof shows a complete lack of understanding on what an anonymous forum really is. No one is required or going to prove anything to you. Very rare that they will. There just is no benefit to doing so. And you don't even have a right to request that of anyone. It is your responsibility to figure out "who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". Do the work. Investigate and that most certainly includes doing and figuring the math. Don't just be lazy and scream "show me the proof".

In the end if you choose to believe something when the math says the opposite, or you choose to believe something impossible when the math say it is possible and/or likely, that is on you. You are free to live in whatever fantasy world you like. Just be sure to keep the casinos updated as to your current address because they are going to want to stay in contact with someone like you.

Great post. Casinos will continually roll out the red carpet for suckers like Alan and co. here. I've never had that happen but I sure have had the chair yanked out from under me and forced to leave numerous times. Fools like Slinger can spout off all of the bullshit they want. Legitimate players/people don't listen to one iota of what they say because we know they're liars that are full of shit!

[kewlJ]

Every conceivable thing known in this universe, whether you want to believe it or not, is here because of math. If you don't think this is true, then you need to go and take physics and chemistry classes again.

This is exactly right! I am not even a "math guy". Most math stuff goes right over my head. But I am smart enough to know that all answer lie in the math.

[Rob.Singer]

Kew and jbjb seem to be at odds. One claims EVERYTHING in life is a product of the math, while the other says it's most things. I guess they never really got their marching orders straight before leaving the wizard.

I tend to agree with kew. Otherwise, with only a 1.5%-2% population of gay's in this country, why are these people popping up on nearly every new TV show, in most movies, and in too many agenda-driven media reports? Transgender freaks are even affecting first graders, if you read the news this week.

No jbjb, the math doesn't show up everywhere.

[redietz]

I don't think people here know much about how sports handicapping works, so allow me to elucidate.

Once upon a time, handicappers were monitored by various agencies that listed their plays and their won/lost records. That kind of went out the window with handicappers fronting multiple incarnations of themselves, then advertising whichever variant happened to have the best year. I have never had variants. In any event, if handicappers racked up winning records over years, and did well in against the spread contests, with plays being posted in public before the results, it was pretty easy to see who could win. Not many, but some could.

It was far clearer vis-a-vis winning than idiots posting photos of jackpots or W2Gs or blathering on about how great they are, math be damned. Any sports bettor can put 20K on each side of a game and post the winning photo online every week. No sports bettor with a brain would buy that as evidence of "winning."

It's possible for somebody who has good against the spread records for years and who has done well in contests to be a loser, but it would take some work. That person would have to be off kilter firing at sports in which they are not expert and playing dumb ass parlays and stuff like that. They'd have to be an addict, in other words.

The other thing about sports bettors, the offshores have excellent accounting, so plays are a matter of record. While it's possible for someone to have won boatloads at some sites (and they show you the accounting for those sites) and lost boatloads at others (which they do not mention), when the number of plays at each site gets into the hundreds, it becomes highly unlikely wins at one site are offset by losses at others that you do not see. It's possible, but not likely.

My point is, compared to morons posting jackpot photos as evidence, sports handicappers actually have track records that are at minimum semi-public.

[Biloxi Bill]

As usual, redietz tries to make another mountain out of a mole hill, while simultaneously displaying his agitation and lies about what I've done and how Alan's reacted to it. It's posts like these that would lead any educated person to question to veracity and credibility of what he's claimed about himself.

I have no doubt the former Mrs. Dancer is indeed a lifetime winner, because we've seen a picture of her $400,000 royal, and she rarely played prior to hitting it. Simply use your head to figure this out and you will come to the same conclusion.

We know Alan plays and sometimes plays at limits most here cannot, because he has provided pictures. But does he win? Smartmoney says he has and does, because he understands the concept of money management, using win goals, and quitting at some positive point when ahead. It should also be understood by anyone with half a brain that with all his ex's, it would not behoove him to blab about ever being an overall winner. So once again, we use our heads.

Most sensible people would understand that I have won over the years because I've put up pictures of huge hits, some of my articles in GT had similar pictures, and people know that I've played big. Again, we rely on pictures to make a determination. It's a good start, and really, all there is beyond that is either the word of the player or how people have reacted to, in my case, the largest single published challenge (bet) in video poker history. Add this all up and what does smartmoney say?

Which leads us to what the APs claim. They have no pictures to go along with their claims, and they come up with the most humiliatingly outrageous while unverifiable bloviations that they use thinking others will use it as a way to believe them when they claim to win. And when that doesn't work because it never does, they take the easy way out and proclaim "we win because the math books on theory say we should....and every university math professor will attest to that!"

So who you going to believe--people who post pictures and the resulting application of simple common sense afterwards in order to make as accurate an educated guess as possible....or a group of people who can't even prove that they play, and who shamelessly hide behind book theory and "industry secrets" as their method of persuasion?

I agree...we`ve all seen pictures of your bankruptcy and Mrs Singer`s face

[kewlJ]

Kew and jbjb seem to be at odds. One claims EVERYTHING in life is a product of the math, while the other says it's most things. I guess they never really got their marching orders straight before leaving the wizard.

I tend to agree with kew. Otherwise, with only a 1.5%-2% population of gay's in this country, why are these people popping up on nearly every new TV show, in most movies, and in too many agenda-driven media reports? Transgender freaks are even affecting first graders, if you read the news this week.

I shouldn't respond to this. I try not to even read your dribble. But, I will make the likely mistake of wasting my time and effort on you.

First since you obviously have no clue, kewl is a variation of 'cool'. So my handle is 'kewl' - J. Shortening it to kew makes no sense. That would be like referring to you as ro.

Second, that you would even suggest that I take marching orders from wizard, shows you know absolutely nothing. I am no fan or wizard. I have spent the last year and a half trashing wizard every chance I got. So much so that he publicly declared I am dead to him.

Of course that is based on how I feel about him as a person (very small) and site administrator (very weak), not a mathematician. As a mathematician, I do stand in awe of him and would give my right arm to have a quarter of the math ability and knowledge that he possesses.

Your second paragraph, going right to an attack of something completely unrelated, just shows what a troll you are. You are out of ideas about the topic being discussed, so you go right to a hateful attack of something completely unrelated. Page 1 of the Troll play book.

[Alan Mendelson]

For me, the proof doesn't matter. What matters to me is whether or not the claims and the information behind the claims will help me win in casinos.

As I suspected for a long time. It was the same sense I got from some other "well known"AP critics.

You got some smart people with many personal and/or career achievements in life, guys who love to gamble as a hobby and have been doing it for years, but they can't seem to figure out how to make money gambling(that must suck knowing guys are out there crushing it at times).

Meanwhile, some rail tramp who liked to drink, or some young punk smart ass kid, or some guy who was broke when he started, even guys who are highly educated with other successful careers found a way to be successful at gambling/AP. That seems to really piss the hobby ploppys off, some to the point of hateful jealousy. They always claim that's not true, blah blah blah(who the hell is going to admit that anyway?). I guess It's easier to bash AP(s) and say it isn't real rather than admit to yourself and others that you have been gambling for years. And even though you have access to online, books, other successful gamblers, but still haven't figured out how to beat the casinos.

I'm not sure if it's pride, bitterness, hate or just the way some people are wired, whatever the case, the AP detractors seem to love calling out AP(s) as BS just for sport. Some detractors seem to do it thinking it will somehow goad AP's into giving up the necessary information needed to beat the casinos. I don't think that's the right approach if you really want to know about AP, especially given the nature of AP. It's not very beneficial creating competition, giving information out to a big mouth or feeding information to someone with another agenda(someone looking to write about AP or make money in other ways from gambling). That's how we got people like T-Eliot.

Sometimes it only takes something small to make things click for an aspiring AP. There are many of cases where the person was not even looking to get into AP, it just kinda happened after finding the right situation and meeting the right guy.


I have helped others with AP, however, its usually people I think will be good allies and it will be beneficial for both them, me and people I do stuff with. I can't imagine I would want to be involved with someone being an ass hat online, especially someone who seems to have disdain for AP(s) for whatever reason. There are plenty of good guys out there who respect the business and the people in it, guys who would love the opportunity to learn more without any hidden agendas.

that's all very interesting but this isn't about anyone challenging APs.

[Alan Mendelson]

W-2's don't prove shit either. Case in point Alan, your son and his "5 royals within 24 hours and still lost money" scenario.

Every conceivable thing known in this universe, whether you want to believe it or not, is here because of math. If you don't think this is true, then you need to go and take physics and chemistry classes again.

I'm sorry, jbjb. The math says you should not exist. The math also said Jason should not have hit five royals in less than 24 hours. (Actually he hit 5 royals in less than 18 hours.) Whether or not he won money had nothing to do with the fact that he hit five royals. You and your math cronies disputed the fact that he did hit five royals -- but he did. And there's paperwork to prove it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Every conceivable thing known in this universe, whether you want to believe it or not, is here because of math. If you don't think this is true, then you need to go and take physics and chemistry classes again.

This is exactly right! I am not even a "math guy". Most math stuff goes right over my head. But I am smart enough to know that all answer lie in the math.

Once again, if all answers lie in the math, you would not exist.