Nevada w/o an edge

[Don Perignom]

About me: NV resident, no sports knowledge.

Can I find an edge?

I'm starting my analysis with the mobile apps because none of the operators have retail outlets in my apartment. Nevada is different from most other legalized states because accounts must be registered in person at a retail outet. Apparently, this prevents the national operators from using their standardized software, and discourages them from participating at all. You won't find FanDuel or DraftKings, and the nationals that do participate use a different app. Usually a crappy one.

For my first comparison, I compiled money line differentials for the three major in-season sports. In each case, I tried to select an evenly matched game. A game with -110 / -110 odds would register as a 20, as would a -125 / +105.

These #s are from a few minutes ago today:



Some sites require a login to view the odds. I'm lacking Rampart and South Point logins, so those are blank. But according to VSIN data, South Point would be a 20 for all three games.

Most of the sites are vanilla 20 across the board. Atlantis and Circa were the only sites with dime lines -- both for NHL. Here's a "dime line" example, from Atlantis:



Boyd has mixed offerings. And BetMGM is the only site to exceed a 20-cent line, with 25 cents on the NHL game. [Edit: also Boyd, at 22.]

I would like to find a (free) web site for odds comparison. VSIN is either incomplete or inaccurate, and others allegedly supporting Nevada appear to be pulling data from other states.

[Don Perignom]

Incidentally, the STN Station app is the ugliest thing I've seen outside of a zoo.

[mickeycrimm]

About me: NV resident, no sports knowledge.

Can I find an edge?

I'm starting my analysis with the mobile apps because none of the operators have retail outlets in my apartment. Nevada is different from most other legalized states because accounts must be registered in person at a retail outet. Apparently, this prevents the national operators from using their standardized software, and discourages them from participating at all. You won't find FanDuel or DraftKings, and the nationals that do participate use a different app. Usually a crappy one.

For my first comparison, I compiled money line differentials for the three major in-season sports. In each case, I tried to select an evenly matched game. A game with -110 / -110 odds would register as a 20, as would a -125 / +105.

These #s are from a few minutes ago today:



Some sites require a login to view the odds. I'm lacking Rampart and South Point logins, so those are blank. But according to VSIN data, South Point would be a 20 for all three games.

Most of the sites are vanilla 20 across the board. Atlantis and Circa were the only sites with dime lines -- both for NHL. Here's a "dime line" example, from Atlantis:



Boyd has mixed offerings. And BetMGM is the only site to exceed a 20-cent line, with 25 cents on the NHL game. [Edit: also Boyd, at 22.]

I would like to find a (free) web site for odds comparison. VSIN is either incomplete or inaccurate, and others allegedly supporting Nevada appear to be pulling data from other states.

vegasinsider.com
donbest.com
covers.com

[Don Perignom]

vegasinsider.com
donbest.com
covers.com

I don't see it.

Vegas Insider is not primarily an odds service. They sell tout picks and promote legal site signups.

They used to provide odds for Vegas b&m's. From 2017:



Now the odds are for US-legal national providers:



They have state-specific pages with affiliate signup links, but Nevada is not on the menu.

Don Best is paywalled. The free odds display includes apparently a mix of Nevada and national -- DraftKings, Will Hill, and SuperBook.

VSIN's free display is sourced from Don Best, but the Nevada page needs attention.

Covers is a free site, no paywall. Odds include not only the basics, but also props. Only for US national providers though.

I'll look again through my other bookmarks, but I presume there's minimal affiliate incentive for portals to promote Nevada. Covers does have an info page for Nevada, but the indicated signup bonuses are misleadingly national rather than NV-specific.

Sometimes the national odds are valid in NV also. I think Caesars NV is usually the same as Caesars national. But Westgate seems to have different odds than national SuperBook. Not sure about BetMGM or Wynn.

[Don Perignom]

Other odds comparison sites:

Action Network - good prop coverage, but US national only.

Betting Pros - paywalled analytics; NV odds page contains all nationals.

Betting USA - free US national portal, no NV.

DarkHorse - paywalled.

Odds Checker - free portal; has an NV page, but the only listings are FanDuel and BetMGM (probably national).

Odds Jam - arb finder, mostly paywalled; expensive. Some NV coverage, but not sure how extensive.

Odds Portal - international only.

Odds Shopper - US national odds; NV page lists SuperBook only. Arb finder with paywalled upgrades.

RebelBetting - paywalled.

Scores and Odds - US national only; paywalled picks.

SportsLine (CBS) - limited selection of US nationals.

The Lines - free portal; the NV odds page only has BetMGM, and that's probably sourced nationally.

Unabated - paywalled, but I don't see any indication of NV being supported. Support includes both US national and offshore.

VSIN - the NV page is accurate for Circa and (Westgate) SuperBook. Caesars was accurate until the big software update a few months ago.

[cyberbabble]

SBRforum - SBRODDS - US based books
BMRforum - BMRODDS - offshore books

They are the same guys although I don't think they admit it. SBR was first and biggest and an affiliate for the offshores. A few years ago they spun off BMR for offshore books. SBR is trying to clean up their history with offshore gambling so they an get advertising from US books.

If you signup to the forum then you can choose the books in the screen display. They want an email but I don't think they sell it or spam you much.
Always best to have a secondary email though.

You can earn points, enter sports contests and win things sort of like a famous member here.

[Don Perignom]

SBRforum - SBRODDS - US based books
BMRforum - BMRODDS - offshore books

They are the same guys although I don't think they admit it. SBR was first and biggest and an affiliate for the offshores.

Ah yes, thank you. I remembered SBR being very prominent 15 to 20 years ago, but then sportsbooks went off my radar. It's noticeable now that the sites containing US info are avoiding mention of offshore. I think the only exception from my list is Unabated.

I'm not seeing the Nevada books at SBR, but I'll register just to be sure. They do have cool line history graphs for the US national books.

You can earn points, enter sports contests and win things sort of like a famous member here.

If I do enter any contests, that'll go in the Professional Sportsbetting thread. Wouldn't be right to bury it here.

[cyberbabble]

Looks like I was wrong about more books. No Nevada books. I guess they are going for non-Nevada apps.

You can Google SBR calculators. These are sometimes useful. Some are based on historical data. I doubt they have been updated in years but they are probably close to current info.

[Don Perignom]

You can Google SBR calculators.

I use basic calculators frequently. One of the few promos available in NV is the Caesars odds boosts.

Unfortunately, they're hard to assess, and mostly unprofitable afaik. I see 72 of them available as I write.

They always have two or three on the front page, with original odds shown. Here's an easy one because there's no parlay:



I see Circa has the same bet at only +395, but alas BetRivers is +450 so it appears I don't have an edge here.

[cyberbabble]

I think you could look at this like a Closing Line Value calculation.
Pretend you bet at +450 and the line is now +395.
You can use a CLV calculator to get this line move is worth about 2%.
They want a no vig line which you can't get here since it's a one sided bet, not having one won't affect the result much.

A 2% improvement in the line wouldn't offset the vig in the original bet.
It's a bad bet but you already knew that.

[Don Perignom]

It's a bad bet but you already knew that.

These odds calculations are somewhat alien to me. I thought of it as, if the unboosted outcome paid +340, then the other outcomes combined would be around -475 assuming a 5% house edge.

The boost to +450 doesn't outrun the -475, so I'm still negative.

I would have shopped additional books if I thought it looked promising. I'm leery of using the odds boosts anyway because I don't want to hurt my image at Caesars.

[Don Perignom]

Another survey:



This time I looked at partial-game (1st quarter, 1st half, 1st period) money line odds. In theory, these should carry a higher house edge because they're more obscure or exotic.

Mostly I was pleasantly surprised. I think the most standard house edge is 4.55%, when both sides are -110. For each observation, I calculated the house edge. Example, on the NCAA 1st half, SuperBook had -155 / +135, which is 3.23%.

Interestingly, SuperBook's HE is higher on the full game ML, at 4.11% (-180 / +150). Station went the other way, offering the full game at 2.67% (-180 / +160).

Worst of the bunch was BetMGM, followed by Boyd.

Best is probably Circa.

Caesars and Will Hill were identical, including the absence of the Duke game for some reason. They must still have a relationship.

In the chart, anything <4.55 is green, anything > is red.

[cyberbabble]

I see what you are doing. It's a good, quick way to get started.

I don't live in a sports betting state so I can't comment on what is available. I opened 2 overseas accounts 20 or so years ago. One, 5dimes, kicked out Americans a few years ago. They were trying to get in the US as a legal book. I still have the other account but use it for poker not sports. They must not like me much since I've never gotten any special bonuses like KJ.

Your main problem is that you are trying to compete with the toughest people in the world. There are a lot of people in Las Vegas trying to do what you want to do.

Think about offshore. Offshore is mostly bitcoin now. There are some easy ways to get started in bitcoin. It's not that difficult. You don't need to understand bitcoins. It is somewhat intimidating to start but easy once you do it the first time. I'm fairly sure Axel uses it. Who knows what KJ does?

You can get some bonuses. You can compare lines with LV, bet both sides of a game in two places and grind out most of the bonus amount.

[Don Perignom]

Your main problem is that you are trying to compete with the toughest people in the world. There are a lot of people in Las Vegas trying to do what you want to do.

I haven't identified any direct method of gaining an edge in the Nevada market. I have an indirect edge at Caesars NV sportsbook via tier bonuses and casino point redemptions. My other NV sportsbook action is mainly for arbing or hedging. But that could change if I remain alert.

As for competition, I hope to pick up some of the larger crumbs. It's not obvious to me that Nevada is the epicenter.

Legal Sports Report has 3rd quarter data. I don't see a compilation, so I'm totaling the months manually.

IL 1.95b handle, 175m revenue
NJ 2.6b handle, 265m revenue
NV 1.65b handle, 95m revenue
NY 3.85b handle, 365m revenue
PA 1.45b handle, 135m revenue

I see at least three states exceeding NV in action, while achieving much higher hold percentages. I don't even know how that's possible to hold 10% in sports. Possibly the big holds are unfriendly to APs, but in the northeast they have the ability to play multiple states assuming there's an associated benefit. If I'm in NV, I have no access to other betting states except possibly AZ.

Think about offshore. Offshore is mostly bitcoin now. There are some easy ways to get started in bitcoin. It's not that difficult. You don't need to understand bitcoins.

That's the imminent plan, but my first impression is not favorable. I see too many steps where I'm potentially exposed to fees. I have to maneuver my money through an exchange, a wallet, and a sportbook. And at each end there's a currency conversion between USD and crypto.

You can get some bonuses. You can compare lines with LV, bet both sides of a game in two places and grind out most of the bonus amount.

Someone has been reading my mind. Yes, I'll definitely do some of that. I don't want to rely excessively on hedging, but in moderation it can take a nice bite out of the risk.