SLOT MACHINE AP's

[RS__]

Just about everything you just wrote is so backwards, I barely even know where to start.

If these guys were in charge of the NFL, the goalposts would be mounted on wheels to be shifted as desired throughout the game.

If you explain that a previous situation was beatable, it's deemed irrelevant because all advantage opportunities are now extinct.

If you explain that a current situation is beatable, it's deemed insufficiently profitable and you must be living in a homeless shelter.

If you explain that a current situation is extraordinarily beatable, it's deemed useless because you're not guaranteed to win.

Well said. It's almost like they're trying to disprove all this stuff.

[coach belly]

It's almost like they're trying to disprove all this stuff.

Not trying to disprove anything, just trying to understand the edge.

In the case of a VP progressive, where the expected value is positive...

Even though only one player can hit the jackpot, are all players playing with an edge?

I asked this question several months ago

If the bank of machines feeding the progressive is full with players in every seat, is each player playing at +EV until the royal hits?

[mickeycrimm]

Tell us why you don't file tax returns, ever, mickey. That'll clear up a whole lot for these armchair "AP gamblers" who simply want and need your stories to be true.

I know what you and Alan are up to, sleazeball. You go first. Tell us why you cheat on your taxes and stiff your creditors, deadbeat.

[Alan Mendelson]

It's almost like they're trying to disprove all this stuff.

Not trying to disprove anything, just trying to understand the edge.

In the case of a VP progressive, where the expected value is positive...

Even though only one player can hit the jackpot, are all players playing with an edge?

I asked this question several months ago

If the bank of machines feeding the progressive is full with players in every seat, is each player playing at +EV until the royal hits?

This is a great question. I'm going to take a stab at this:

Yes. All players have the same theoretical even though only one will hit the royal.

[mickeycrimm]

I'm somewhat surprised that you don't own and travel in a vehicle that has a place for you to sleep, cook and live inside in it such as a conversion van, a pickup with a camper, or a small RV.

I make several stops at day at bar/casinos in the towns plus other stops. I like a compact car with a six cylinder that jets around in traffic well and is easy to park. Vans/Campers are to big and bulky for that and burn a lot of gas. I stay in hotels and get to take a shower everyday, watch cable television and surf the internet.

[coach belly]

All players have the same theoretical even though only one will hit the royal.

Is the EV divided by the number of players?

If there are 8 machines linked to the progressive and all seats are full, is the EV 1/8 of what's expected on any individual machine?

[mickeycrimm]

In the case of a VP progressive, where the expected value is positive...Even though only one player can hit the jackpot, are all players playing with an edge? I asked this question several months ago. If the bank of machines feeding the progressive is full with players in every seat, is each player playing at +EV until the royal hits?

[/QUOTE]

I did a lot of royal racing in Laughlin, Las Vegas and Reno. There was a lot of royal racing going on at the Cal Neva/Reno. The Virginian bartops, keno lounge bartops and skywalk bartops all had great progressive set-ups. Each bar had it's own meter. They were multi-game progessives all on the same meter. The keno lounge and Virginian meters ran at 1.5% and the skywalk meter ran at 2%. The games were all bad pay except for 9/6 Jacks. With meters that fast plays developed all the time. Winston's team came in when a progressive hit $2300 but only took half the machines. They knew better than to try to monopolize. The rest of us were independent agents.

So there would be ten guys pounding away at about 1000 hph and each using an aggressive royal strategy that produced a royal about every 34,000 games.

I was right in there with them and my expectation looked like this. At 1000 hph I was running a $1250 an hour wager. With the strategy I used I was taking a 3.4% drop between royals. That's a cost of $43 an hour. My expectation was to hit a royal every 34 hours of play. So the cost was $1460 per royal. The average royal went at $3000.

Some people suffer delusions that royals never hit and you could still be there 24 hours later dozing off while playing from lack of sleep. That's all bullshit. You got ten guys cranking out 1000 hph. That's 10,000 hands per hour. The royal is gonna go within 3 maybe 4 hours. If you get stretched out it might go 5 or 6 hours. A worst case scenario would be 9 or 10 hours. But it usually went off within 4 hours.

Four hours of play without getting the royal was an expected loss of about $160 to me. And most of the time I didn't get the royal. But there were a lot of royal races at the Cal Neva. I got my share of royals.

[blackhole]

I'm convinced you alleged slot pros are full of shit. You can't even give me one question to ask this programmer that would prove him wrong for pretty much calling slot AP's bullshit artists.

[blackhole]

Pretty sure the two guys who played the double-up bug made quite a bit of money and didn't end being locked up.

Your just loaded with facts...lol What happened to one of the two Game King AP's Quote:

Nestor was up more than $480,000. The Game King ride was over, but he had enough money to last him forever.

At 1:30 pm on October 6, 2009, a dozen state and local police converged on Andre Nestor's split-level condo on a quiet, tree-lined street in Swissvale. He was dozing on his living room couch when the banging started. “State police! Open up!” The battering ram hit the door seconds later, splintering the frame and admitting a flood of cops into the house.

Nestor says he started toward the stairs, his hands over his head, when he came face-to-face with a trooper in full riot gear. “Get on the floor!” yelled the trooper, leveling his AR-15 at Nestor's face. Nestor complied. The cop ratcheted the handcuffs on Nestor's wrists, yanked him to his feet, and marched him into the kitchen.

For the next two hours, Nestor watched helplessly, handcuffed to a kitchen chair, while the police ransacked his neat home. They flipped over his mattress, ripped insulation from his ceiling, rifled his PC. At about 4 pm, Nestor's roommate, Laverde, arrived home and was arrested on the spot as an accomplice to Nestor's crimes.

It was the first major gambling scandal in Pennsylvania since the state had legalized slots in 2004. The media portrayed Nestor as a real-life Danny Ocean, and prosecutors hit him with 698 felony counts, ranging from theft to criminal conspiracy. The district attorney seized every penny of Nestor's winnings and gave it back to the Meadows. Nestor and Laverde spent about 10 days in the county jail before making bail.

Nestor says the Meadows still has his winnings, and the IRS is chasing him for $239,861.04 in back taxes, interest, and penalties—money he doesn't have.

[bocce ball]

Pretty sure the two guys who played the double-up bug made quite a bit of money and didn't end being locked up.

Your just loaded with facts...lol What happened to one of the two Game King AP's Quote:

I didn't follow the story, but there's a lengthy account of it here:

https://www.wired.com/2014/10/cheating-video-poker/

The two guys were arrested, but all charges were dropped. Exactly as indicated by RS__.

[RS__]

I'm convinced you alleged slot pros are full of shit. You can't even give me one question to ask this programmer that would prove him wrong for pretty much calling slot AP's bullshit artists.

What forum is this anyway? I'd enjoy reading what is being posted.

From the original post, it seemed like the idea of APing slots is that you can just play slots all day and win at them or there's some secret way to change the overall return in a slot. As far as I know, there isn't.

Slot AP is about finding slots that offer a short term advantage, like if a progressive is high enough (similar to a VP progressive) or something else that gives a short term advantage. That doesn't change the overall return on a machine because that's part of the overall return. Another part of slot AP is playing a slot during a promotion so that you aren't making money off the slot itself but from whatever benefit the casino offers. Neither of these two things do I think a slot designer is worried about. The casino shouldn't worry about it either unless they're stupid and run a really good promotion.

RE double up bug -- you're showing your ignorance again, blackhoe.

[blackhole]

Pretty sure the two guys who played the double-up bug made quite a bit of money and didn't end being locked up.

Your just loaded with facts...lol What happened to one of the two Game King AP's Quote:

I didn't follow the story, but there's a lengthy account of it here:

https://www.wired.com/2014/10/cheating-video-poker/

The two guys were arrested, but all charges were dropped. Exactly as indicated by RS__.

Read the whole article you linked. That is the same article I copied from. You AP's will do anything for each other.

[bocce ball]

Read the whole article you linked. That is the same article I copied from. You AP's will do anything for each other.

The article says the charges were dropped:

A few months later, the Justice Department dropped the last of the charges, and they were free.

As for their financial results, Kane was a big winner, but the accounting for Nestor is unclear, due to confiscations.

It should be noted that Kane and Nestor were not AP's. They're degenerates who stumbled across a glitch, which they exploited carelessly.

[mickeycrimm]

I'm convinced you alleged slot pros are full of shit. You can't even give me one question to ask this programmer that would prove him wrong for pretty much calling slot AP's bullshit artists.

Ask him if he got called a two bit asshole by you after he answered your question.

[mickeycrimm]

Below is a screenshot of my first play yesterday morning. On GWAE I talked about progressive meters on 6 out of 7's, 5 out of 6's, 7 out of 10's at video keno. Explanations for these type of games were to lengthy to get into on the show. Below you will see a game called Chambers of Gold. It's a classic example of both a progressive and banking game.

The game is based on collecting 7 out of 10 hits. When you bank 5 hits you get the money in the meter. The meter is at $308.55. It starts at $100 and runs at 4%. You can bet up to $2 a game but only have to bet 50 cents to qualify for the meter. It appeared to me that some ploppie was betting $2 a game and ran the meter up to $308. They would be putting $1 in the meter for every 12.5 games they played.

Look just to the right of the meter and you will see five icons, 3 filled in and two are blank. When you hit a 7 out of 10 one of the icons will fill in so it looks like our ploppie hit 7 out of 10 a total of three times while he/she was playing. If you look down at the payscale on the right you will see a gold nugget next to the 7 out of 10 hit. When you hit a 7 out of 10 that nugget will move up and fill in one of the icons. Get all five icons and you get the money in the meter. For whatever reason the ploppie didn't finish the play so left me a very nice play.

This is what the expectation looks like. If you run the payscale on the Wiz's keno calculator it will show 73.75%. I intentionally leave the 9 out of 10 and 10 out of 10 hits off the payscale because they are such longshot hits. You can see the pyramids in the pic. They reprensent the bonus round. Whenever you catch at least 4 out of 10 of your numbers and hit at least 4 of the 7 pyramids you go into a bonus round. I had to make the calculation for this occurrance myself and the frequency is 127. The bonus round is worth 9.5 bets so that's a 7.48% add-on. So it's an 81.22% game on the way to collecting 7 out of 10's. That means I will be getting dropped for 18.78%.

The frequency of 7 out of 10 is 621. I have to hit two of them.

1242 X 50 cents X 18.78% means my expected cost on the play is $117. The meter is expected to move from $308.55 to $333.40 (1242 X 50 cents X 4%). So the expected earn on the play is $216.

I put $100 in the machine and started the play.

[mickeycrimm]

The first $100 burned off in about 500 games without hitting a 7 out of 10 so I stuck another hundred in the machine. I finally hit the first one when the meter was on $320.50. Every 50 games I play put $1 in the meter. I put $11.95 in the meter so 11.95 X 50 means I played 596 games to hit the first one. I was stuck $95.50 at that point. You can see on the left that I was watching the Vegas shooting on Fox News while I was on this play.

[mickeycrimm]

I made the 2nd hit at $327.05. The meter has reset to $100 but you can see the progressive amount paid in the black strip across the center. Subtracting $308.55 from $327.05 means I put $18.50 in the meter So 18.5 X 50 means I played 925 games to hit the 7 out of 10 twice. I ran a little rough on the play for the amount of games I played. You can see I had $380 in credits on the machine when I hit the last one. It was a $180 earn minus the $5 tip so I netted $175 on the play.

On turbo speed it plays at 25 games per minute so I was on this play about 40 minutes. It was then time to move on and find another play.

[pkspins]

I haven't listened to your appearance yet. But these explanations you post really make clear what it is you do to take advantage of short term opportunities and make a few bucks. Thank you for taking the time to share - they are interesting reads.

[redietz]

I haven't listened to your appearance yet. But these explanations you post really make clear what it is you do to take advantage of short term opportunities and make a few bucks. Thank you for taking the time to share - they are interesting reads.

They're fascinating. If mickey were 20-something, I'd tell him to not do it, as it gives too much away. But if you've managed this kind of thing for as long as he has, a little demonstration of expertise can be saluted.

[bocce ball]

If mickey were 20-something, I'd tell him to not do it, as it gives too much away.

A hater showed up in the comments where the podcast is posted at the GWAE site. The complaint is that Mickey killed 3-to-2 video BJ in Reno by some combination of posting about it publicly, lying about the math, and/or being wrong about the math.

It all happened on vpfree Reno apparently. I'll look there when I have time, then maybe I'll understand the complaint.