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Thread: STRIP SHOOTING VERY BAD

  1. #1
    Been watching Fox News for a couple of hours. The shooter was holed up on the 32nd floor of Mandalay Bay and rained down fire on the Harvest Festival. Jason Aldean on stage when shooting started. It happened about 10:30 PM last night. AT 3:30 AM pacific time this morning Fox News is reporting at least 50 killed and 200+ wounded.

    The police were amazingly fast in tracking down the room where the shots came from and killed the shooter, Stephen Paddock. They are now looking for possible accomplice, Marilou Danley.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  2. #2
    Horrific. Worst shooting in history. From the videos, had to be a fully automatic weapon.

  3. #3
    I am in Vegas visiting with my girlfriend. We were at the hockey game and then had dinner at Nobu at Caesars before the shooting. We were in a locals bar when the shooting started.

    I couldn't sleep. I can't imagine how anyone in this city could.

    The dead and the wounded are locals as well as tourists. These scars will run deep.

    Vegas was always a fun town. You might have lost your money but last night people lost their lives. You can laugh about losing your money. When people lose their lives the laughter stops.

    The bar I was in last night was called Time Out. Instead of being a place with a happy crowd and karaoke, last night it was a place where employees of Mandalay Bay sat thankful they had the day off and later it was a place where survivors talked about their close call and how people next to them took bullets. A bartender told how a police officer she knew was dead.

    Will anyone want to stay at Mandalay Bay again? Will we feel survivors guilt if we played in its casino in the future?

    I remember when New York New York turned its Statue of Liberty into a memorial after 9-Eleven. Will the South Strip now become hallowed ground where there will be no place or time for Vegas glitz?

    Vegas is a small town. In the days ahead many locals will have to come to grips that someone they know was killed or wounded. How do you deal cards or count out chips or handle money knowing that?

    Las Vegas died last night.

  4. #4
    It appears the shooting was an isolated incident perpetrated by a 64 year old caucasian American who lived in Mesquite, Nevada: It was not a coordinated attack by multiple foreign-born Islamic terrorists.

    Over fifty dead, over four hundred wounded, and so far nobody knows why.
    Last edited by MisterV; 10-02-2017 at 08:22 AM.
    What, Me Worry?

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I am in Vegas visiting with my girlfriend. We were at the hockey game and then had dinner at Nobu at Caesars before the shooting. We were in a locals bar when the shooting started.

    I couldn't sleep. I can't imagine how anyone in this city could.

    The dead and the wounded are locals as well as tourists. These scars will run deep.

    Vegas was always a fun town. You might have lost your money but last night people lost their lives. You can laugh about losing your money. When people lose their lives the laughter stops.

    The bar I was in last night was called Time Out. Instead of being a place with a happy crowd and karaoke, last night it was a place where employees of Mandalay Bay sat thankful they had the day off and later it was a place where survivors talked about their close call and how people next to them took bullets. A bartender told how a police officer she knew was dead.

    Will anyone want to stay at Mandalay Bay again? Will we feel survivors guilt if we played in its casino in the future?

    I remember when New York New York turned its Statue of Liberty into a memorial after 9-Eleven. Will the South Strip now become hallowed ground where there will be no place or time for Vegas glitz?

    Vegas is a small town. In the days ahead many locals will have to come to grips that someone they know was killed or wounded. How do you deal cards or count out chips or handle money knowing that?

    Las Vegas died last night.
    The gambling will go right on. Gamblers are funny people.

    There was a poker player that keeled over dead at the table next to me at Bullwhackers in Blackhawk, Colorado. It didn't even stop the poker game. They dealt around him.

    I walked into the Pioneer in Laughlin to see a guy laying on the floor dead of a heart attack. I looked at the video poker players surrounding him. They were playing right on and staring at their machines hoping to hit a hand. When the paramedics got there and wheeled him out I asked a security guard how long the guy lay there dead. He said "He didn't die here. He'll die on the way to the hospital. To much paper work if he died here."
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Been watching Fox News for a couple of hours. The shooter was holed up on the 32nd floor of Mandalay Bay and rained down fire on the Harvest Festival. Jason Aldean on stage when shooting started. It happened about 10:30 PM last night. AT 3:30 AM pacific time this morning Fox News is reporting at least 50 killed and 200+ wounded.

    The police were amazingly fast in tracking down the room where the shots came from and killed the shooter, Stephen Paddock. They are now looking for possible accomplice, Marilou Danley.
    Vegas is, and always will be a security nightmare. With huge crowds at every turn and minimal security, it was only a matter of time before some random asshole took up a vantage point at one of the hotels looking down on the strip and opened fire.

    The question now becomes, where do we go from here? Metal detectors in the hotels? Luggage checks before room assignments? Armed security in the hotels and nightclubs? There will be changes, and most we won't like.

  7. #7
    This may not have purely been a target of opportunity. It was the final performance of the festival, but I have to think it's likely the Saturday night crowd would have been bigger than the Sunday night crowd. That leads me to the date as having some significance. Certainly 10/1 has significance, as 9/11 can be permutated to 10/1 by adding the first two digits.

    Since the alleged shooter checked in on the 28th, and housekeeping reported no weapons in the room, all of the weapons would have to be placed into the room the day of the shooting. Considering there were 10 weapons, I'm not sure how this would have been accomplished. Someone would have to have stayed in the room the entire day.

    My initial inclination is that the fact nobody has mentioned the date as having significance is a tell, and we may not be getting much of the story.

  8. #8
    News is reporting that the gunman had reportedly lost "tens of thousands" of dollars in the casino...they don`t say if it was this particular visit or if that had anything to do with it

  9. #9
    It also just occurred to me -- the shooter may have cut the glass at 10:01 PM and started shooting immediately thereafter. So timing this event for 10:01 PM on 10/1 says something. I don't know what.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    It also just occurred to me -- the shooter may have cut the glass at 10:01 PM and started shooting immediately thereafter. So timing this event for 10:01 PM on 10/1 says something. I don't know what.
    This stood out to me more than anything else.

    Eric Paddock told CNN on Monday his brother had worked as an accountant and had plenty of money.
    "He was a wealthy guy playing video poker... on cruises," he said, adding that his brother could afford anything he wanted and played $100-a-hand poker"

    A wealthy accountant playing video poker on cruise ships and on the strip, especially $100 a hand VP, is soon to be a broke accountant. It will be interesting to see what his financials look like. Desperate people do some crazy shit.

    I bet he had some great comps though.

  11. #11
    Hell, if we're going to speculate, try this:

    Maybe the shooter recently found out that he had a fatal disease and would die soon; rather than go quietly he may have decided to go out with a huge splash, i.e "an existential attention whore" who no longer gave a flying fuck about anything anymore.

    Or maybe it was an "anti-Trump" political statement; since he cannot get revenge on our leader, he may have targeted a group of those whom he assumed supported Trump, i.e. fans of country music.

    Or, he could just be crazy as a shit house rat.
    What, Me Worry?

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Hell, if we're going to speculate, try this:

    Maybe the shooter recently found out that he had a fatal disease and would die soon; rather than go quietly he may have decided to go out with a huge splash, i.e "an existential attention whore" who no longer gave a flying fuck about anything anymore.

    Or maybe it was an "anti-Trump" political statement; since he cannot get revenge on our leader, he may have targeted a group of those whom he assumed supported Trump, i.e. fans of country music.

    Or, he could just be crazy as a shit house rat.
    Or maybe he alone didn't do it. The NYTimes reported that 19 weapons were found in the room, including two mounted on tripods. That doesn't sound like the work of one person.

    I don't understand the immediate knee jerk need to define a "lone wolf" shooter who, by the way, is dead and can't be interviewed. The fact he's dead has somehow made it unnecessary to put the word "alleged" before his name. CNN at least places "police say" after the occasional proclamation. It seems everything has been wrapped in a tidy bow very quickly for an event of this magnitude. I get the feeling we're not likely to read about the provenance of the 19 weapons anytime soon.

    Note: The G2E opened today, with an anticipated 25,000 visitors. I was somewhat surprised to hear last night's terrorist attack so quickly defined as "lone wolf" in status. Then I realized G2E was this week. I really wish the whole spin of this didn't remind me of the mayor from the movie Jaws.

    I will be going to Las Vegas tomorrow, but not for the G2E. Based on the partial information we all have, I don't have a lot of confidence in the PR assessments, so I will be avoiding the strip, the convention area, and any large public gathering locations.
    Last edited by redietz; 10-02-2017 at 03:06 PM.

  13. #13
    I'm watching the non stop TV coverage here in Vegas. It's sickening to hear the politicians continue to use the phrase "fabulous Las Vegas Strip."

  14. #14
    MGM stock was down almost five percent today, which all things being equal is not surprising.

    The DJI was up quite a bit: this event didn't even phase Wall Street, apparently.
    What, Me Worry?

  15. #15
    It's hard to figure out the motive here, but at this point, depression/frustration due to gambling losses seems to be the most likely explanation. It's also possible that his compulsive gambling was just a symptom of a greater psychosis which brought him to do this.

    As a veteran of Las Vegas casinos, I can shed some light on some matters regarding his gambling, as well as his ability to get/hide the numerous large firearms in the room.



    What kind of gambler was he? Was he perhaps an advantage player or winning gambler?

    Very unlikely. His brother indicated that he sometimes gambled on cruise ships, which is almost always hugely -EV, as their odds tend to be worse than land-based casinos. It seems that his game of choice was video poker, but no casino advantage players I know have ever heard of him, and that's a fairly small and tight-knit community. There are also reports that he gambled tens of thousands of dollars in the past few weeks. That could mean one of two things -- either he LOST or WON tens of thousands, which is significant -- or he simply wagered tens of thousands, which is very insignificant. As a point of reference, when I play a single day of video poker, I usually wager $50,000, but it is almost impossible to lose more than $5,000 while doing so.



    Is is possible that he was a rich accountant who didn't care about the money won or lost?

    Very unlikely. He attempted to "flip" a house recently, which he bought for $245,000. He ended up selling it at a small loss (I think $13,000), but the point is that wealthy house-flippers don't mess around with $200k-type properties, as there's simply not enough money in it. You flip those properties if making $30,000 is a huge deal to you. Furthermore, his home in Mesquite was quite modest, and we have seen no indications that he was wealthy to the point where tens of thousands of dollars of video poker losses wouldn't faze him.



    His brother said the he gambled $100 per hand at video poker. What does that mean?

    $100 per hand at video poker doesn't exist, because almost everyone "max plays", which means 5 credits per hand. The credit denominations you can choose are typically $0.25, $0.50, $1, $2, $5, $10, $25, or $100. If he were to play $25 per credit, that would be $125 per hand. And yes, that's actually pretty significant. Due to the speed one can play video poker (500 hands per hour for most experienced players), that would be $62,500 wagered per hour at such a machine, resulting in an average loss of $625 per hour even at a fairly good 99% return machine. But keep in mind that video poker also has a lot of variance, and is very royal flush dependent. You only hit a royal every 40,000 hands on average, and all hands played during a royal drought will return 2% less on average. So a guy running $25 per credit on a 99% return machine WITHOUT hitting a royal will lose, on average, $1875 -- and that's if he plays perfectly. Also, some machines return less than 99%, even at high limits. Of course, we are taking his brother's word for what he was betting. It's possible he was playing $5/credit video poker (which is far more common than $25/credit), in which case the expected losses would be cut by 5x what I just stated. Still, you can EASILY lose tens of thousands in that game in a period of weeks if you're playing a lot and just not hitting royals.



    How could he have snuck 17 large weapons into a Mandalay Bay hotel room? What about the maid's report that she didn't see anything when cleaning it?

    I'm guessing that he let the maid clean before he snuck the weaponry in there, near the beginning of his stay. Otherwise, he could simply put up a Do Not Disturb sign for the length of his stay, which is fairly common and would not arouse any suspicion (I do it myself). Contrary to some reports I'm reading, it is NOT difficult to get 17 large weapons into a large Vegas hotel like Mandalay Bay, especially over a period of days. He simply needed to make several trips back and forth, with the guns hidden in suitcases. The hallways do not have cameras, and the security presence in these hotels is pretty low, aside from keeping the riff-raff from going up the room elevators in the evenings. Security tends to focus on the casino portion, for obvious reasons. One could easily go back and forth with 17 suitcases without detection, especially if spread over a period of 4 days. Note that he checked in on Thursday, meaning he only needed to bring up 4-5 suitcases per day at different times of the day. 100% that could be done without detection.



    How could he have checked in using his girlfriend's info, especially given that he is a different gender and clearly looks nothing like her?

    This is not uncommon. Hosts can pre-check you into the room, and they are happy to do this for gamblers likely to shoot off a lot of $ on -EV games. He simply needed to book it under Marilou, then have himself added as an authorized guest, and have his host pre-check-in the room. This is even easier if she is also a gambler there, and the host knows they are associated. I actually did this once for a family member who I got a hotel room, but would be at the hotel hours before me. The room was in my name, but they were able to get keys before I arrived.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #16
    Scary stuff going on.

    I was actually on the freeway near the strip around 1030 and there was a flood of sirens from cop cars, what looked like SWAT trucks, and all those other government types. I figured shit was going down, but didn't expect anything like this.

    Everyone I know in Vegas and I are safe.


    There was a gofundme relief thing for this and it was up to $1.8m out of the $2m goal, just a few hours ago. News reports are saying the blood banks in LV have already reached their capacity or requirement. That's pretty astonishing considering how small LV is along with this being the deadliest mass shooting in US history.

    My condolences to all involved and their friends and family.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    $100 per hand at video poker doesn't exist, because almost everyone "max plays", which means 5 credits per hand. The credit denominations you can choose are typically $0.25, $0.50, $1, $2, $5, $10, $25, or $100.
    One of my local casinos has single line, $20 per credit ($100 max bet) Game Kings.

  18. #18
    I had no idea that the hallways did not have cameras. I find that stunning. That creates all kinds of security issues.

  19. #19
    Many hotel casinos in LV don't have surveillance.

    As far as being a "$100 video poker player", well, that can be a few things. A gambler would say that's someone who plays $100 denom. Just like someone who plays 25c VP is a 25c player. Or someone who plays penny slots plays pennies.

    A non-gambler might conclude someone who plays about or on average $100 a whack at the machine is a $100 player, so that includes stuff like $25 VP ($125/whack), $2 10-play, $10 triple play ($150/whack), or $5 triple play ($75/whack).


    I also don't have much faith in his brother talking about what he plays. A while back I remember talking to a guy who said he plays black action on craps, he has line bets, odds, hard ways, place bets, sometimes come bets, etc. and had some question about getting shit comps or something like that. It turnt out, he wasn't a black action player, he just had ~$100+ average bet total on the table. $10 pass + $30/$40/$50 odds, maybe $26/$27 or $52/$54 across, and $5 on all the hard ways (or however it was). But that's just a red chipper. A black chipper is someone who bets at least black chips on most bets.

    I remember reading an article I think on some guy who hit dealt AWAK on $1 100-play TDB (at Cosmo, I want to say?). The article essentially said the guy hit for $400,000 on just a $1 bet!!


    I hit dealt AAAA on BP playing $2 10-play for $8k and the slot attendant was like "wow you hit for $8k on just $2 bet??!! That's awesome!!!"


    People also don't tend to actually know how much they're winning or losing life time, especially for others they know. I don't know if the guy's brother talked about it or not (I think they said he hit for $40k once and $250k another time?), but it'd be easy for him to think his brother was winning all sorts of money if he only texted him pictures of big wins. On the other hand, he may conclude he was in a big hole if he stopped sending him jackpot pics many months or a year ago, or heard some stories recently of him losing a lot. This is part of the reason why if you ask any gambler in a casino, they'll likely either say they always lose or they're up lifetime.....neither of those are likely to be true.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Many hotel casinos in LV don't have surveillance.

    As far as being a "$100 video poker player", well, that can be a few things. A gambler would say that's someone who plays $100 denom. Just like someone who plays 25c VP is a 25c player. Or someone who plays penny slots plays pennies.

    A non-gambler might conclude someone who plays about or on average $100 a whack at the machine is a $100 player, so that includes stuff like $25 VP ($125/whack), $2 10-play, $10 triple play ($150/whack), or $5 triple play ($75/whack).


    I also don't have much faith in his brother talking about what he plays. A while back I remember talking to a guy who said he plays black action on craps, he has line bets, odds, hard ways, place bets, sometimes come bets, etc. and had some question about getting shit comps or something like that. It turnt out, he wasn't a black action player, he just had ~$100+ average bet total on the table. $10 pass + $30/$40/$50 odds, maybe $26/$27 or $52/$54 across, and $5 on all the hard ways (or however it was). But that's just a red chipper. A black chipper is someone who bets at least black chips on most bets.

    I remember reading an article I think on some guy who hit dealt AWAK on $1 100-play TDB (at Cosmo, I want to say?). The article essentially said the guy hit for $400,000 on just a $1 bet!!


    I hit dealt AAAA on BP playing $2 10-play for $8k and the slot attendant was like "wow you hit for $8k on just $2 bet??!! That's awesome!!!"


    People also don't tend to actually know how much they're winning or losing life time, especially for others they know. I don't know if the guy's brother talked about it or not (I think they said he hit for $40k once and $250k another time?), but it'd be easy for him to think his brother was winning all sorts of money if he only texted him pictures of big wins. On the other hand, he may conclude he was in a big hole if he stopped sending him jackpot pics many months or a year ago, or heard some stories recently of him losing a lot. This is part of the reason why if you ask any gambler in a casino, they'll likely either say they always lose or they're up lifetime.....neither of those are likely to be true.
    A lot of this is how Singer and system sellers talk. "I won a $25,000 jackpot doing X strategy...." but they won't tell you they lost $40,000 to get that $25,000 winner.

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