STRIP SHOOTING VERY BAD

[Alan Mendelson]

Please see the following article. It says income from gambling.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...nvs/index.html

I think you guys should take this up with CNN and other media. I'm not responsible for this article.

[kewlJ]

Please see the following article. It says income from gambling.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...nvs/index.html

I think you guys should take this up with CNN and other media. I'm not responsible for this article.

Alan, did you actually read the whole article or just the first few lines? Further down in the article it talks about some of his real estate dealings and the profits that he made from them. Although the numbers are not exactly the same as what I saw in other articles, he clearly made millions from these handful of various real estate deals. THAT is where these piles of cash, including the cash that he paid for his Mesquite home came from.

Anthony Curtis, Shackleford and Dancer, in various articles, all lead us and the media down this path that it is possible that he was an advantage player, playing slightly -EV games, with comps making up the difference. Yes, that may be possible, but a lot harder to pull off at high stakes level. But these 3 resident gambling "experts" that the media always goes to in gambling related stories, were really talking in generalities, not specifically of this guy, because none of them KNOW the circumstances of this guy.

So in the absence of that, the only two people that claim this guy made money gambling, were the guy himself (bragging to his real estate agent) and the brother, who didn't really know the shooter's gambling habits and was likely just repeating what the shooter had told him.

If this guy made millions (or any profit) from gambling there will be Tax info coming that will back that up. I will bet there is no such documentation showing any profit, because there isn't any profit. He made several million through real estate transactions and lost at least a portion of that gambling in recent years. You can bet money on it!

[Alan Mendelson]

Did you read the article? He listed his income from gambling and he paid cash for the $300,000+ home.

On his application, he said his income came from "gambling." He gambled about $1 million a year, he told one of the agents.
And he paid cash for the house, the agents said -- $369,022.

I'm going by what the article said. I think you should be talking to CNN.

By the way, I've heard this before: if you're not playing a +EV game you can't have a profit.

What else is new?

[alpax]

I have been following this tradegy quite extensively during this week. I found an article posted today on the NY Times which has a portion that reflects Paddock to be some kind of AP. The writer was able to reach out to Munchkin, a member of the Blackjack Hall of Fame and the co-host of GWAE, who shared an account.

I initially doubted that Paddock was a true AP because he earned Seven Stars status at Vegas properties which is not the ideal place based on Dan's extensive reports on TR. Paddock also was welcome to play at Red Rock where Stations usually no mail skilled players. As Dan pointed out, he also played on cruise ships which have the lowest odds. I guess Paddock would play as an addict, but will play the best possible to earn the comps. With the real estate money Paddock made, I think losses can be absorbed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/07/u...ock-vegas.html

Playing a slot machine can be mindless and is usually a guaranteed win for the casino. That is not what Mr. Paddock played. His game, video poker, requires some skill. Players have to know the history of a particular machine. They can do that by reading a pay table, which tells them what each possible winning hand pays out.

One of the ways that video poker players get an advantage is to play casino promotions, which essentially pay out bonuses to winners, said Richard Munchkin, author of “Gambling Wizards: Conversations With the World’s Greatest Gamblers.” A gambler like Mr. Paddock will often “lock” a machine, meaning he or she monopolizes it and makes sure no one else uses it during a gambling session.

For one casino promotion, Mr. Paddock showed up two hours early, locked two machines and played them for 14 hours straight, Mr. Munchkin said, based on information he had compiled from other gamblers who were there at the time. The promotion lasted 12 hours, he said, “but he wanted to play for two hours before anybody got those machines. He knew they were the best machines based on pay tables.”

Mr. Paddock “knew the house advantage down to a tenth of a percent,” he said.

[kewlJ]

Did you read the article? He listed his income from gambling and he paid cash for the $300,000+ home.

Yes, I read the article and numerous others this week. He paid cash for the home. That is a fact. Where that cash came from is not as clear. We KNOW he made piles of cash, several million dollars worth from various real estate transactions. THAT is where the money came from, Alan. And that is a legitimate business, real estate speculation, or whatever it is called.

The only place he "listed" his income from gambling was on the real estate application and if he was paying cash (which he was), there was no verification necessary. I guarantee there is no tax paperwork showing significant earnings from gambling.

I am not going to continue arguing about this. This guy did not make millions from gambling. His tax forms and net worth will be coming (I suspect), and they will show gambling losses. I don't know how much he lost, all or nearly all his worth, or part of his worth, but I guarantee he lost a portion of his worth in recent years as he got further into this gambling addiction. His net worth was going down (or maybe near bottom), because he was a gambling addict, not a successful AP. And that probably was a big part of the timing of this horrific incident.

[Alan Mendelson]

This guy did not make millions from gambling. His tax forms and net worth will be coming (I suspect), and they will show gambling losses. I don't know how much he lost, all or nearly all his worth, or part of his worth, but I guarantee he lost a portion of his worth in recent years as he got further into this gambling addiction. His net worth was going down (or maybe near bottom), because he was a gambling addict, not a successful AP. And that probably was a big part of the timing of this horrific incident.

How do you know all this? You need to tell the FBI. At least, tell the media!

[kewlJ]

How do you know all this? You need to tell the FBI. At least, tell the media!

Oh stop already! Sometimes you are so dramatic.

I am speculating, just like the rest of you. Just a gut feeling. I would bet a lot of money that this guy was NOT a successful AP. That's not to say, he didn't know the best strategies and lowest odds against, and maybe occasionally played with an advantage utilizing a promotion as Munchkin stated. But he was not a long-term successful AP. What he was, was a successful real estate speculator, who retired and developed a pretty significant gambling addiction.

And if I am wrong and his tax info and financial information (which will likely be released at some point) shows significant money earned by gambling, I will gladly admit I am wrong. Not that this would have any bearing....what he was....was a very sick dude.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm not being dramatic. I am quoting what you wrote.

I on the other hand do not speculate. I am quoting either media reports or what the police/sheriff/FBI said at their media briefings.

[kewlJ]

I'm not being dramatic. I am quoting what you wrote.

I on the other hand do not speculate. I am quoting either media reports or what the police/sheriff/FBI said at their media briefings.

You very much are speculating! In addition, you are "cherry-picking" items that you are quoting, just as you always do.

And I have news for you Mr. Mendelson.....you are so freaking dramatic....such a drama queen, that if you didn't keep telling us that you have a girlfriend, I would think you were gay....."not that there's anything wrong with that" (Seinfeld reference)

[redietz]

Two things here:

1) I believe either Anthony Curtis or Dancer was quoted as saying this guy was not an AP per se. He was known to the AP community, and he was an intelligent player, but not an AP.

2) If his income winds up being listed as "gambling," and he was not an AP -- then bingo. The most likely scenario is that he was listing "gambling" as his primary source of income because he had other unnamed sources that he chose to explain as "gambling." Anyone can claim gambling wins as listed by as many W2Gs as one wants to list, and then fail to offset it with losses. If I had any kind of black market or ISIS funding or whatever, I could list income from the off shores at which I won as the source of my money, while failing to offset it with the list of off shores at which I lost. So I would go through life as a "professional gambler."

With negative expectation video poker, it would be a hard court argument to explain how I stayed ahead of the game -- I would have to rely on Rob's old arguments: it's all luck and variance is huge. That could explain one year; it would be a tough court argument to explain a stretch of years. I'd have to stay away from numbers of hands and results, as that would expose me (in court) as not likely to be telling the truth.

[blackhole]

Alan says take it up with CNN if you doubt the gaming income. You could tell he’s from California if he has any credence in what CNN the actual definition of RAG media has to say.

I think AP’s that bullshit on forums, would love to hear his millions in cash income came from machine play, simply to give credit to their bullshit claims. Of course, I’m not including Mickeys two-bit welfare income from machine play that everyone here thinks is such a great success story.

[mickeycrimm]

Alan says take it up with CNN if you doubt the gaming income. You could tell he’s from California if he has any credence in what CNN the actual definition of RAG media has to say.

I think AP’s that bullshit on forums, would love to hear his millions in cash income came from machine play, simply to give credit to their bullshit claims. Of course, I’m not including Mickeys two-bit welfare income from machine play that everyone here thinks is such a great success story.

Whatever I do beats being an addicted sucker gambler like you. Fuck off idiot.

[redietz]

Alan says take it up with CNN if you doubt the gaming income. You could tell he’s from California if he has any credence in what CNN the actual definition of RAG media has to say.

I think AP’s that bullshit on forums, would love to hear his millions in cash income came from machine play, simply to give credit to their bullshit claims. Of course, I’m not including Mickeys two-bit welfare income from machine play that everyone here thinks is such a great success story.

Whatever I do beats being an addicted sucker gambler like you. Fuck off idiot.

On my deathbed, I'd rather be Edgar Allan Poe (who died broke) than Stephen King. And hell, I like King.

[bocce ball]

I think AP’s that bullshit on forums, would love to hear his millions in cash income came from machine play, simply to give credit to their bullshit claims.

This is just pathetic. The entire thread is filled with APs doubting that the guy was a winning player.

[Alan Mendelson]

Of course the APs will doubt he won. He played a negative expectation game. HE HAD TO LOSE.

[bocce ball]

If you float, you're a witch.

[kewlJ]

Of course the APs will doubt he won. He played a negative expectation game. HE HAD TO LOSE.

That IS CORRECT! Over the long run he had to lose if playing negative expectation games, the exception being some sort of single mega jackpot hit that offsets years of losing....maybe even a lifetime of losing if it is big enough. But in the absence of that, he had to lose long-term. As redietz stated, possibly variance could account for an odd year of profit while playing negative expectation, but not anything more longterm than the occasional odd year is nonsense. It's "walk on water" fantasy.

[mickeycrimm]

Of course the APs will doubt he won. He played a negative expectation game. HE HAD TO LOSE.

In the long run he did with some periods of short term luck. Alan, if you like negative expectation games then lay me 11 to 10 per flip and I'll flip coins with you until the cows come home. On your way to going broke you will experience some short term luck and in those periods can claim "I won" but in the end you WILL go broke.

[OneHitWonder]

Of course the APs will doubt he won. He played a negative expectation game. HE HAD TO LOSE.

Not at all. He might have been the greatest AP ever. One guy against the world who pulled off an unthinkably "incredible" feat. The essence of an AP is to get the job done in an excessively profitable and innovative manner without anyone seeing him coming. Life is a negative expectancy proposition, in any event, but he will be remembered long after any of us.

[AxelWolf]

Did you read the article? He listed his income from gambling and he paid cash for the $300,000+ home.

On his application, he said his income came from "gambling." He gambled about $1 million a year, he told one of the agents.
And he paid cash for the house, the agents said -- $369,022.

I'm going by what the article said. I think you should be talking to CNN.

By the way, I've heard this before: if you're not playing a +EV game you can't have a profit.

What else is new?

The guy was playing high denomination VP, so It's possible the guy could have got lucky and hit 5 Royals for 100k in one day. AND ACTUALLY WON for that day/year, so he spent it on a house. Winning or losing doesn't make you an AP.

I dont know one AP(even the self-proclaimed loaners) that doesn't network a least a little with at least a few other AP's.

This guy was what I would call a value player. Most likely he had a gambling problem.