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Thread: The Wiz and the Challenge

  1. #81
    This exercise is why I consider myself a smart vp player and not an advantage player. Playing fast defeats the whole purpose of playing for an advantage, and this was only for ten minutes. These aps usually play all day or night, or both.

    He actually lost money doing thus. RS said he was making money. Does that make any sense? It is not smart, but hey, it's Advantageous.

  2. #82
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    He actually lost money doing thus. RS said he was making money. Does that make any sense? It is not smart, but hey, it's Advantageous.
    Most people work 8 hours a day, 5 days a week for 40 hours a week. 4 of those 5 days they work, they get nothing in return, then on the last day they get a big windfall called a "paycheck". Some AP plays work the same way.

  3. #83
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    He actually lost money doing thus. RS said he was making money. Does that make any sense? It is not smart, but hey, it's Advantageous.
    He failed to exceed his EV of +0.76%, but this thread is exceeding my expectations.

  4. #84
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    He actually lost money doing thus. RS said he was making money. Does that make any sense? It is not smart, but hey, it's Advantageous.
    Most people work 8 hours a day, 5 days a week for 40 hours a week. 4 of those 5 days they work, they get nothing in return, then on the last day they get a big windfall called a "paycheck". Some AP plays work the same way.
    Yes it's been said too many times on wizzards. The difference is, the guy who gets the paycheck can prove he made money for his time. The guy who makes the ap claim cannot. This is a big difference.

  5. #85
    The thing I have not gotten an answer to and what I don't understand is when does a +ev player take money out of his bankroll to pay bills and such. I want to know if your on the dark side of variance, say 10% down on your bankroll do you still take money out to pay the mortgage which would further deplete your funds so you have to make back even more to be even?, or do you only spend winnings above and beyond your bankroll? I get Mickeys deal. He makes positive every day but a vp grinder or card counter has those swings to the negative.
    Take off that stupid mask you big baby.

  6. #86
    The chance of being ahead through 437 hands is not that good. The royals odds are 45,000 and the 4 deuces chance is 4900. Those two hands represent almost 6% of the payback. I don't know if he hit a wild royal or not but the chance there is 557. That's another 4.5% of the payback. So without the top three hands he is playing at about a 10% deficit.

    Promotions excluded, the real payday for deuces wild is when you hit the royal. The probability of 45,000 and the payoff of 800 for 1 means the royal represents 1.77% of the payback. The overall return is 100.76% so you subtract that off the 100.76% and you get 98.99%. That means your expectation is playing at a 1.01% deficit on your way to hitting the royal.

    The average cost to hit the royal is easy to figure:

    45,000 X $1.25 X 1.01% = $568

    Since the royal pays $1000 it's an average profit of $432 per royal. At that guys speed the average seat time per royal is about 18 hours. That's an hourly rate of about $24 an hour.

    But in the real world he won't get out 45,000 hands per 18 hours seat time. He's got to use the restroom sometime. There are other distractions to deal with as Shack explained. It would probably take him more like 20 hours to get that many hands out.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #87
    Crimm, are you trying to tell us that vp machines set back to start every time someone new sits at one? Because if you aren't then you're analysis has no value.

    This, it appears, is how aps always concoct their predictions. A smart player realizes and understands all the optimal long run equations, but knows no one can even begin to guess where any machine is in its life cycle. So for crimm to claim 437 hands is not a good opportunity to be ahead by, it's a disingenuous assumption at best and plum wrong at worst. If the guy had been ahead after 437 hands I would totally expect to hear out of this world praises about his great play.

  8. #88
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    If the guy had been ahead after 437 hands I would totally expect to hear out of this world praises about his great play.
    Originally Posted by bocce ball View Post
    I didn't look carefully, but I thought he lost more like $50 in ten minutes.
    Originally Posted by bocce ball View Post
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    He probably made more errors than anyone would care to admit.
    He played error-free. I thought it was pretty cool.

  9. #89
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    Crimm, are you trying to tell us that vp machines set back to start every time someone new sits at one? Because if you aren't then you're analysis has no value.

    This, it appears, is how aps always concoct their predictions. A smart player realizes and understands all the optimal long run equations, but knows no one can even begin to guess where any machine is in its life cycle. So for crimm to claim 437 hands is not a good opportunity to be ahead by, it's a disingenuous assumption at best and plum wrong at worst. If the guy had been ahead after 437 hands I would totally expect to hear out of this world praises about his great play.
    You are one brain dead son-of-a-bitch. Trolltard.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 10-23-2017 at 08:44 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  10. #90
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    If the guy had been ahead after 437 hands I would totally expect to hear out of this world praises about his great play.
    Not from an AP. You've got no clue, dude. You should just go ahead and play Megabucks. It's your only shot in gambling.

    And what's your username at WoV? Why are you to chickenshit to use it here?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #91
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Just curious--I did not watch anywhere close to the whole thing. But I noticed on one hand he kept ace queen suited with a deuce. On another he only kept the deuce. I don't play deuces. Is that because there was another of that suit discarded in the latter? Anyone know the reason and/or the numbers? Arci???
    In the hands in question the expected values of holding the 2AQ vs. holding just the lone deuce are very very close. Penalty cards come into play. In the first hand he held the 2AQ because there were no penalty cards. In the second hand he held the lone deuce because there was a 4 that was the same suit as the AQ. That means there are 12 less combinations that can make a flush when holding 2AQ and it tips the play over to holding just the lone deuce.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  12. #92
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    If the guy had been ahead after 437 hands I would totally expect to hear out of this world praises about his great play.
    Not from an AP. You've got no clue, dude. You should just go ahead and play Megabucks. It's your only shot in gambling.

    And what's your username at WoV? Why are you to chickenshit to use it here?
    This is exactly what you do. Proclaim knowledge, savvy, and victory no matter which side of the fence you land on.

    Show me the requirement to use the same name on every forum. You do it for the attention. What do your wife and kids call you, mickeycrimm also?

  13. #93
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    If the guy had been ahead after 437 hands I would totally expect to hear out of this world praises about his great play.
    Not from an AP. You've got no clue, dude. You should just go ahead and play Megabucks. It's your only shot in gambling.

    And what's your username at WoV? Why are you to chickenshit to use it here?
    This is exactly what you do. Proclaim knowledge, savvy, and victory no matter which side of the fence you land on.
    Show me the requirement to use the same name on every forum. You do it for the attention. What do your wife and kids call you, mickeycrimm also?
    I've used the same name on every forum just like KJ, axel and others. You're a dirty stinking little coward that doesn't want anyone to know your track history. What are you hiding, nimrod? So you were on WoV the same time as Rob? That means you got your punk ass banned, right, boy? A Dirty stinking bitch coward.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  14. #94
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    The thing I have not gotten an answer to and what I don't understand is when does a +ev player take money out of his bankroll to pay bills and such. I want to know if your on the dark side of variance, say 10% down on your bankroll do you still take money out to pay the mortgage which would further deplete your funds so you have to make back even more to be even?, or do you only spend winnings above and beyond your bankroll? I get Mickeys deal. He makes positive every day but a vp grinder or card counter has those swings to the negative.
    Different APs do it different ways. I'm talking about professional APs, at least. APs tend to have plenty of extra money to cover for their expenses. It's not like we're playing off of high 4-figure or low 5-figure bankrolls. What's $2k in monthly expenses when you have a $100k+ roll?

    I usually deposit $5k to $15k in the bank whenever my checking account gets a little low.


    If I offerred you 1.5-to-1 on a fair coin flip, your $100 to my $150, for as long as you wanted.....I'm gonna take a wild stab in the dark and say you're going to want to flip the coin as quickly as possible. Sure, you might lose $50 after the first three flips, but you'd be a fool to suggest you'd continue to lose another $5,000 over the next 300 flips.

  15. #95
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    The thing I have not gotten an answer to and what I don't understand is when does a +ev player take money out of his bankroll to pay bills and such. I want to know if your on the dark side of variance, say 10% down on your bankroll do you still take money out to pay the mortgage which would further deplete your funds so you have to make back even more to be even?, or do you only spend winnings above and beyond your bankroll? I get Mickeys deal. He makes positive every day but a vp grinder or card counter has those swings to the negative.
    I'm going to guess that a bankroll for an AP should have nothing to do with money used to pay other bills -- it is a separate, dedicated account.

    It's just like a business owner who runs a retail store: he has an account for his business. It is from the "business account" that profits are used to pay himself.

    Therefore, the "AP" would pay himself when he has profits from his business of casino play. However, if the APs are talking about a "margin" of 1% I can't imagine the "paychecks" are very big.

  16. #96
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    If I offerred you 1.5-to-1 on a fair coin flip, your $100 to my $150, for as long as you wanted.....I'm gonna take a wild stab in the dark and say you're going to want to flip the coin as quickly as possible. Sure, you might lose $50 after the first three flips, but you'd be a fool to suggest you'd continue to lose another $5,000 over the next 300 flips.
    I love these coin flip questions. Of course there is no similar bet in a real casino.
    How about a coin flip contest with an "edge" of 0.1-percent or 0.2-percent? Do you still want to put your $100K bankroll at work with that? (Hint: the current 6-months CD rate is above 1.5-percent.)

  17. #97
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by wizardofpuke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    Not from an AP. You've got no clue, dude. You should just go ahead and play Megabucks. It's your only shot in gambling.

    And what's your username at WoV? Why are you to chickenshit to use it here?
    This is exactly what you do. Proclaim knowledge, savvy, and victory no matter which side of the fence you land on.
    Show me the requirement to use the same name on every forum. You do it for the attention. What do your wife and kids call you, mickeycrimm also?
    I've used the same name on every forum just like KJ, axel and others. You're a dirty stinking little coward that doesn't want anyone to know your track history. What are you hiding, nimrod? So you were on WoV the same time as Rob? That means you got your punk ass banned, right, boy? A Dirty stinking bitch coward.
    What's it been, 238 days of sobriety?

    Best you find a better sponsor.

  18. #98
    WOP, here is a basic 101 phantom buck math explanation.

    One phantom buck plus two phantom bucks times three phantom bucks equals nine phantom bucks. Luck only comes into play when you're not an AP. Pro AP's have the extra phantom math bucks on their side which cancels luck and RNG's out of their equation.

    Hang in there, you'll catch on sooner or later.

    Edited to add: If you don't agree with the AP math than be ready for the fight like Mickey demonstrated above.
    Last edited by blackhole; 10-24-2017 at 04:14 AM.

  19. #99
    One thing that blackhole says is true: APs seem to leave the RNG out of their equations. They just don't account for a long string of an RNG not cooperating with their expert holds.

    That's the problem with trying to be an expert at video poker: the darn RNG just doesn't give you that card you are drawing for.

    Even our friend Arcimedes has had extremely long droughts when drawing on four to the royal. I had a royal flush drought that lasted more than a year.

  20. #100
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    The thing I have not gotten an answer to and what I don't understand is when does a +ev player take money out of his bankroll to pay bills and such. I want to know if your on the dark side of variance, say 10% down on your bankroll do you still take money out to pay the mortgage which would further deplete your funds so you have to make back even more to be even?, or do you only spend winnings above and beyond your bankroll? I get Mickeys deal. He makes positive every day but a vp grinder or card counter has those swings to the negative.
    Different APs do it different ways. I'm talking about professional APs, at least. APs tend to have plenty of extra money to cover for their expenses. It's not like we're playing off of high 4-figure or low 5-figure bankrolls. What's $2k in monthly expenses when you have a $100k+ roll?

    I usually deposit $5k to $15k in the bank whenever my checking account gets a little low.


    If I offerred you 1.5-to-1 on a fair coin flip, your $100 to my $150, for as long as you wanted.....I'm gonna take a wild stab in the dark and say you're going to want to flip the coin as quickly as possible. Sure, you might lose $50 after the first three flips, but you'd be a fool to suggest you'd continue to lose another $5,000 over the next 300 flips.
    So if you have $100,000 bankroll and spend $10,000 of it on living it's now a $90,000 bankroll or am I missing something? In other words any time your bankroll goes down from living or losing your ROR goes up right? You don't base your ROR on a bankroll you had you base it on the bankroll you have.
    Take off that stupid mask you big baby.

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