View Poll Results: Did Alan really see 18 yos in a row?

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  • yes

    2 15.38%
  • no

    11 84.62%
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Thread: Did Alan see 18 yos in a row?

  1. #21
    Those who are saying, "Unlikely things happen sometimes" have no idea just HOW unlikely this is. Read on below to learn about this:

    ----------------------------------------------------

    The odds of one Yo is 1/18 -- or 5.6%.

    Now, let's throw out the first one, because a Yo will eventually be rolled. So the question is -- what are the odds of 17 more consecutive Yos being rolled right after that?

    Well, that math problem is easy. You take 1/18 and make it to the power of 17. So it's (1/18)^17.

    And the answer? 1 in 2185911559738696531968.

    Approximately 1 in 2 sextillion.

    How long are those odds?

    Let's say a craps roll occurs every 10 seconds. It doesn't (because the game pauses far more often than that), but let's go with that number.

    At that rate, you would see 17 Yos in a row once every 692 trillion years. And we're talking about 17 Yos in a row. Change it to 18, and that goes up to once every 12 quadrillion years.

    I do not believe any event has ever taken place in human history which had a 1 in 2 sextillion chance of occurring.

    Needless to say, Alan has never seen 18 Yos in a row, nor has anyone anytime anywhere.

    Unless the dice were loaded.

    However, I don't think Alan is lying or delusional. I think he just didn't see it right.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Let's not forget, we can't find any witnesses, the video is gone.
    Alan is still a witness. As much as there is no reasonable explanation for his claim, even an event with zero chance could still happen. Just for fun.

    If we pick a number at random from the set of real numbers, numbers with any infinite decimal expansion, then the number, say, 2.000000000... could still be picked even though it has, mathematically, zero chance out of infinitely many other numbers. This has to do with how limits over infinity are conceptualized and calculated. And a shift from calculus to statistics. That we could actually randomly pick a number from the whole of the real numbers is another matter.

    Perhaps, there are an infinite, or levels of infinity of universes in which sentient entities gamble at games that involve yo's in some way, and not just our one universe of many, many in total that has the only such life. Then, we are at a magnitude of order of casino events that his claim begins to make sense. Then, somewhere, it has to have already happened with probability of 1. And some other "schmuck" was already left to deal with it, however.

    In the same vein of argument, it's interesting to wonder who would doubt it if they saw it as is, in a manner by which there is no other explanation that is more likely, and with the dice and tapes in hand. How would we think then? I think that we would easy forget about what we say about Alan in lieu of being able to sleep at night. Suddenly, there would be all sorts of probability and statistics explanations surrounding skew and kurtosis. As in how our minds ultimately work to adapt to reality.
    Last edited by OneHitWonder; 10-15-2017 at 06:26 PM.

  3. #23
    Your memory simply doesn't work how you likely think it works.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Those who are saying, "Unlikely things happen sometimes" have no idea just HOW unlikely this is. Read on below to learn about this:

    ----------------------------------------------------

    The odds of one Yo is 1/18 -- or 5.6%.

    Now, let's throw out the first one, because a Yo will eventually be rolled. So the question is -- what are the odds of 17 more consecutive Yos being rolled right after that?

    Well, that math problem is easy. You take 1/18 and make it to the power of 17. So it's (1/18)^17.

    And the answer? 1 in 2185911559738696531968.

    Approximately 1 in 2 sextillion.

    How long are those odds?

    Let's say a craps roll occurs every 10 seconds. It doesn't (because the game pauses far more often than that), but let's go with that number.

    At that rate, you would see 17 Yos in a row once every 692 trillion years. And we're talking about 17 Yos in a row. Change it to 18, and that goes up to once every 12 quadrillion years.

    I do not believe any event has ever taken place in human history which had a 1 in 2 sextillion chance of occurring.

    Needless to say, Alan has never seen 18 Yos in a row, nor has anyone anytime anywhere.

    Unless the dice were loaded.

    However, I don't think Alan is lying or delusional. I think he just didn't see it right.
    I am not a math guy. But the kind of math and explanation that Dan posted just erases any doubt that Alan could not have seen this. People will say, "not impossible" and make a comparison to 1 in hundred million chance of winning the lottery (the big one) with one ticket. But this isn't that kind of odds. This is a winning the big lottery 10 weeks in a row with a single ticket type thing and that takes it from "not impossible" to not possible.

    Nothing against Alan, I too want to get away from using the terms "lying" or "delusion" and replace it with phrases that he just didn't see what he thinks he saw. The mind plays tricks. Selective memory and stuff. It really does. That doesn't make anyone a bad guy.

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I am not a math guy. But the kind of math and explanation that Dan posted just erases any doubt that Alan could not have seen this. People will say, "not impossible" and make a comparison to 1 in hundred million chance of winning the lottery (the big one) with one ticket. But this isn't that kind of odds. This is a winning the big lottery 10 weeks in a row with a single ticket type thing and that takes it from "not impossible" to not possible.
    There are continuous random interactions in nature all around all of the time which operate in probabilities much smaller than any of this. The fact that things can't return to their previous conditions, or that those seldom manifest as other, less-pure events that we can all immediately recognize, such as 11 yo's, or two different colored liquids in solution separating on their own (under forces of Brownian motion), doesn't mean that such far-stretched probabilities can't or aren't happening with great frequency. Those are, but we don't attach labels such as 11 yo's.

    It's similarly amazing that persons begin with, "I don't understand it," and then end up with conclusive stuff that others with endless degrees in it are still debating. Lol. The Alan effect? Perhaps, the gambler's effect, in general.

    How can anyone believe anything you guys say about anything?
    Last edited by OneHitWonder; 10-15-2017 at 08:17 PM.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Those who are saying, "Unlikely things happen sometimes" have no idea just HOW unlikely this is. Read on below to learn about this:

    ----------------------------------------------------

    The odds of one Yo is 1/18 -- or 5.6%.

    Now, let's throw out the first one, because a Yo will eventually be rolled. So the question is -- what are the odds of 17 more consecutive Yos being rolled right after that?

    Well, that math problem is easy. You take 1/18 and make it to the power of 17. So it's (1/18)^17.

    And the answer? 1 in 2185911559738696531968.

    Approximately 1 in 2 sextillion.

    How long are those odds?

    Let's say a craps roll occurs every 10 seconds. It doesn't (because the game pauses far more often than that), but let's go with that number.

    At that rate, you would see 17 Yos in a row once every 692 trillion years. And we're talking about 17 Yos in a row. Change it to 18, and that goes up to once every 12 quadrillion years.

    I do not believe any event has ever taken place in human history which had a 1 in 2 sextillion chance of occurring.

    Needless to say, Alan has never seen 18 Yos in a row, nor has anyone anytime anywhere.

    Unless the dice were loaded.

    However, I don't think Alan is lying or delusional. I think he just didn't see it right.
    Alan is just a bit of a dummy. I've met him 5 times, he is a very nice man--but he is one of those who just doesn't know what he doesn't know.

  7. #27
    My question is when did he start counting? When the first yo came did he say "Okay that's one yo in a row." When the 2nd one came did he say "Okay, that's two in a row." I'm always well into a streak before I realize it's a streak and have to ask myself "how many in a row is that?" And I don't really know, remember. All I can do is guess.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #28
    How about the shooter and the dealers including the stick man counted.

    Geesh.

    None of you was there yet you all know it didn't happen and the count was wrong?

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    My question is when did he start counting? When the first yo came did he say "Okay that's one yo in a row." When the 2nd one came did he say "Okay, that's two in a row." I'm always well into a streak before I realize it's a streak and have to ask myself "how many in a row is that?" And I don't really know, remember. All I can do is guess.
    He seen 3 in a row and then added 15 to make it sound good.

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