Blackjack visibility

[Alan Mendelson]

I accept the math. Shit happens. Sorry.

[RS__]

Don't think Dancer has played BJ seriously, at least not any time recently.

I'm talking about the tracking of multiple tables. And Munchkin or guest (if he plays BJ) would be the one to answer that.



I played VP yesterday and got dealt a royal three times in a row. Believe me, because "shit happens". The slot people were like "huh, that's kinda cool". They didn't even open up the machine or check the software or anything, as if nothing out of the ordinary happened. I just wanted to leave but they kept telling me I had to play another hand to clear the jackpot. At least I was smart enough to have my money on it, unlike you-know-who.

[kewlJ]

I'm talking about the tracking of multiple tables. And Munchkin or guest (if he plays BJ) would be the one to answer that.

Well I think you, I and anyone who plays or ever played blackjack seriously at any time already knows what that answer would be. AND just like the 18 yo's in a row, Alan would never accept that answer.

[Alan Mendelson]

I accept that TO SOME DEGREE kewlj can track two tables. But that begs the question what degree is that and is it sufficient? Frankly that doesn't impress me more than a craps shooter saying he can control the dice to some degree.

Kewlj just what is your degree of tracking and what impact does that degree of tracking have on the return of your game? Let's cut the mustard.

[kewlJ]

I accept the math. Shit happens. Sorry.

Translation: I accept that the earth isn't flat. Next sentence: I just hope that I don't sail off the end of it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj I'll shut up if you answer the question: what impact on the return of your game does your two-table tracking have?

[kewlJ]

I accept that TO SOME DEGREE kewlj can track two tables.

Well, thank you or THAT Alan. Although you have made that concession before and later gone right back to your original position. (even starting new threads)

But that begs the question what degree is that and is it sufficient? Frankly that doesn't impress me more than a craps shooter saying he can control the dice to some degree.

Kewlj just what is your degree of tracking and what impact does that degree of tracking have on the return of your game? Let's cut the mustard.

I think I have covered this before, but I will try to give a short answer as I am up against time. This is a big day for me as 5 weeks after my heart surgery, I am attempting to get back into some semblance of my life's routine. Not blackjack as yet...that is still a few weeks away, but accompanying my partner to some casinos to play through some free play and give some play to qualify for future offers and of course, eat courtesy of the casinos.

As I have stated before, card counters never have all he information...not since decades ago when games were dealt to the last card. But what information they do get can provide an advantage if the count goes enough positive. The more info the better, but any info missing or cards missed, just essentially adds to the unseen cards, essentially reducing penetration.

What impact does tracking a second table have? It is huge! The ability to jump from a negative or neutral situation (count) to an advantageous situation (count), with zero downtime, essentially changes the true count frequencies dramatically.

For example, say through the normal process of card counting a single table, the player reaches a true count sufficient for his max bet 6% of the time. That is 6 rounds out of 100 played. And let's say based on stakes played and game rules/conditions, that translates to a win rate $100/hr (nice even number for example sake).

So by tracking multiple tables and jumping directly from a negative/neutral count to a favorable count, you will play more favorable or advantageous situations and less negative/neutral situations in that same 100 rounds played. So you might see on average 10 or 11 max bet situations within that same 100 rounds played. Do you see how this would effect your win rate? I mean if you could see twice as many max bet situations, and play them all, you would essentially double your win rate. Unfortunately, you can't play them all. At times, both tables might be very advantageous and you can't play both. And at times, you might successfully track a second table only to have seats fill up just as the table becomes ripe, preventing you from jumping.

So what is a reasonable degree of increased advantage? I don't know. I am not a math guy and wouldn't have a clue as to how to figure that out. While it is less than doubling your advantage because you can't take advantage of all situations, I think saying a 50%+ increase on occasions that you can successfully track a second table is reasonable. That would turn that nice even $100/hr win rate into $150/hr. That is significant. Maybe more. Maybe 60-70%. I just don't know. But it is significant.

In terms of my own person results in recent years, I have remained about the same yearly blackjack win (average) of 75-80k a year, BUT, I am now accomplishing these numbers with less rounds played (my choice). That is how this increased advantage has played out for me.

Now again, you can't utilize this technique all the time, because of crowded conditions or other reasons. (some local places that I play only have one or two blackjack tables open). But when you can...it is very worthwhile.

[Alan Mendelson]

Thank you kewlj. I will now shut up.

[kewlJ]

Thank you kewlj. I will now shut up.

You don't have to shut up. You are entitled to believe whatever you like, including that I can't track multiple tables. But what I would appreciate is that you stop, dishonestly manipulating facts, figures and things said in an attempt to discredit me.


And here's what I will give you in return.....I will no longer argue that you think you saw 18 yo's in a row.

[mickeycrimm]

Two things you will NOT get on this forum- proof and/or demonstration of your strategy. In gambling, MATH or conjecture are not proof. I know, I know- sock puppet!

Casinos do not make money with hocus pocus. All their games are based in the math. It's the same for AP's.

[redietz]

Two things you will NOT get on this forum- proof and/or demonstration of your strategy. In gambling, MATH or conjecture are not proof. I know, I know- sock puppet!

Casinos do not make money with hocus pocus. All their games are based in the math. It's the same for AP's.

Casinos are like schoolyard bullies, and so is casino math. Bullies/casinos are fine when they are favored all the time in whatever schoolyard match up they can instigate or create. Maybe stealing of lunch money is involved. Occasionally a kid from the parochial school down the block shows up and can beat the bully up more often than not if they get into it. So the bully decides to not get into it by telling the teach that a kid from another school is showing up at recess and, horrors, is a bully. Some teaches will then try to ban the parochial school kid.

Sound familiar?

[Alan Mendelson]

Two things you will NOT get on this forum- proof and/or demonstration of your strategy. In gambling, MATH or conjecture are not proof. I know, I know- sock puppet!

Casinos do not make money with hocus pocus. All their games are based in the math. It's the same for AP's.

Actually the AP math can sometimes be questioned. Here's a simple example: how do YOU value $100 of free play? Unless ALL APs value it the same way, AP math can be questioned. I hope you understand the point.

If you don't, how do you value a free night in the casino hotel?

[mickeycrimm]

[QUOTE=Alan Mendelson;55095]

Actually the AP math can sometimes be questioned. Here's a simple example: how do YOU value $100 of free play? Unless ALL APs value it the same way, AP math can be questioned. I hope you understand the point.

Yes, I understand the point. Currently, I value $100 of freeplay at about $130. Because that's what my edge has turned out to be on the vulturable line games I've been playing in the casinos I've visited this year. One of the things I've learned this year is how to work these modern player tracking systems. You get X dollars of freeplay for X dollars of action. Some casinos are just .1% or .2% but others are .3% and .5%. When I accumulate freeplay on the card it is easily downloadable to the machine and I don't have to download the whole thing all at once. I can download it just a few dollars a play if I want. And that is what I do.

What I'm doing in these casinos is vulturing certain line games where things accumulate and the ploppies get up and leave the accumulation without completing the play. So I sit down to spin it off and I will download a few dollars of freeplay. I don't want to download the whole thing because I don't want to be caught with freeplay still on the machine if the play finishes early. Once the game goes back to negative expectation I cash out and look for another positive play left by the ploppies and do the same thing.

So every dollar of freeplay I get is worth about $1.30.

[mickeycrimm]

how do you value a free night in the casino hotel?

I'm in a comped room right now. This room goes for $100 a night midweek but all I'm saving is the $60 it would cost me to stay in an off property hotel. I've just recently started to reap the benefits of all the casinos I visited this year. I'm getting room, meal and freeplay offers from a half dozen casinos now. Maybe more in the future.

[redietz]

I value free play at whatever the amount was in cash after it was played through (once). So I value it after the fact of its use. I don't value free-play-in-waiting since a casino could change its slot program tomorrow or close its doors.

[jbjb]

I value it on whatever I'm using it on.

I think you guys are mixing of the definition of "worth" and "value." A baseball card may be "worth" $100, but no way in hell you'll sell it for that much and get $100 in "value" for it.

[kewlJ]

I'm in a comped room right now. This room goes for $100 a night midweek but all I'm saving is the $60 it would cost me to stay in an off property hotel. I've just recently started to reap the benefits of all the casinos I visited this year. I'm getting room, meal and freeplay offers from a half dozen casinos now. Maybe more in the future.

This is exactly right. The value isn't the inflated, artificial value that the casino places on these comps. The real value is what you are saving by not staying or eating elsewhere. My partner and I eat at a casino everyday, mostly lower end buffets, café type places. For the buffets the casino will value at 10-12 dollars each and the cafe type places maybe $30-$40 for the two of us. But that is not the real value. The real value is less than half that, what it would cost us to eat elsewhere or extra groceries to eat to home. I figure realistically if we were to eat that meal at home every day it would cost an additional $80 bucks a week in groceries, so that is roughly 4 grand (annually) in value to me, not the probably 10-12 grand the casino says is the (inflated) valve of the meal comps.

I am glad you are getting those comped rooms, Mickey. I inquired about that earlier in your casino pictures thread. You SHOULD be getting comped rooms and meals as a sort of hidden or bonus part of your compensation. I am glad you have started to get that extra benefit.

[kewlJ]

I value free play at whatever the amount was in cash after it was played through (once). So I value it after the fact of its use. I don't value free-play-in-waiting since a casino could change its slot program tomorrow or close its doors.

This isn't really the correct way to figure the value, not that it really matters. What you are describing is the actual win....which you find out after the fact. The value is the ev, or expected value, which you can determine before you play. For example $100 free play played through a full pay video poker, has Ev of $99.65 or whatever it is.

[kewlJ]

So the bully decides to not get into it by telling the teach that a kid from another school is showing up at recess and, horrors, is a bully. Some teaches will then try to ban the parochial school kid.

Sound familiar?

This DOES sound familiar to me, but not from playground /schoolyard experiences. It sounds like some message board experiences I have been involved in.

[redietz]

I value free play at whatever the amount was in cash after it was played through (once). So I value it after the fact of its use. I don't value free-play-in-waiting since a casino could change its slot program tomorrow or close its doors.

This isn't really the correct way to figure the value, not that it really matters. What you are describing is the actual win....which you find out after the fact. The value is the ev, or expected value, which you can determine before you play. For example $100 free play played through a full pay video poker, has Ev of $99.65 or whatever it is.

I'm going to stand my ground on this and argue that free play can't have a value placed on it until you play it through because it can be revoked or reduced at the whim of the casino/slot club. It doesn't happen often, but it has happened before and it will happen again.