Well certainly it's worth nothing unless you're actively playing it and immediately cashing it out when done playing through it.
Well certainly it's worth nothing unless you're actively playing it and immediately cashing it out when done playing through it.
[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;55101]Ok, I think that's a stretch, since you can just use real money in that spot instead of free play. I know you would not buy free play for $1.10, so I dont think you can value it at more than 100%.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Yes, I understand the point. Currently, I value $100 of freeplay at about $130. Because that's what my edge has turned out to be on the vulturable line games I've been playing in the casinos I've visited this year. One of the things I've learned this year is how to work these modern player tracking systems. You get X dollars of freeplay for X dollars of action. Some casinos are just .1% or .2% but others are .3% and .5%. When I accumulate freeplay on the card it is easily downloadable to the machine and I don't have to download the whole thing all at once. I can download it just a few dollars a play if I want. And that is what I do.Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
What I'm doing in these casinos is vulturing certain line games where things accumulate and the ploppies get up and leave the accumulation without completing the play. So I sit down to spin it off and I will download a few dollars of freeplay. I don't want to download the whole thing because I don't want to be caught with freeplay still on the machine if the play finishes early. Once the game goes back to negative expectation I cash out and look for another positive play left by the ploppies and do the same thing.
So every dollar of freeplay I get is worth about $1.30.
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Alan, how much are chips worth on craps once you make a bet? When you can awnser that question, you will know how much free play is worth. Here is a hint, it depends what you bet and what you do after.
Buying and selling free play is a diffrent story. You should have no probem selling free play at 80% on the dollar(assumig its not a small amount, you can get a better deal if you have a larger amount). The reason someone might want a 20% discount is the time and risk(risk from the casino if you get caught playing OPFP). If the casinos allowed AP's to buy free play for a few % discount and play it on 99.9% machines(With a guarantee they wouldnt change the game, rules or mess with you), you danm well better belive they would sell millions worth of free play to AP's.
Hey, I this is your Alamo...so be it.Originally Posted by redietz
This can happen, but it really is rare. What is much more common is that requirements for future offers change un-beknowns- to you. Like you play xxxxx amount of coin in for several months which generates xx free play offer and then all of the sudden in month 4 your xxxxx amount only generates x amount of free play.Originally Posted by redietz
This happens when the casino tightens up it's marketing and offers, which has been the trend in vegas for several years now.Or it can be an individualized situation, where the casino has put some sort of classification on you personally, which reduces your offers for the same amount of coin in. IE: they have labeled you and advantage player.
You can still put a value on it, you just have to figure out what the odds of that happening are.Originally Posted by redietzI'm going to stand my ground on this and argue that free play can't have a value placed on it until you play it through because it can be revoked or reduced at the whim of the casino/slot club. It doesn't happen often, but it has happened before and it will happen again.Originally Posted by kewlJThis isn't really the correct way to figure the value, not that it really matters. What you are describing is the actual win....which you find out after the fact. The value is the ev, or expected value, which you can determine before you play. For example $100 free play played through a full pay video poker, has Ev of $99.65 or whatever it is.Originally Posted by redietz
Even with real money or money in the bank there is a chance something can happen to it, so do you put less value on it untill it's spent? I would not agrue with you if you said yes.
It's rare for the genral public, however, it's not as rare as one may think, if you are an AP, that is.Originally Posted by kewlJHey, I this is your Alamo...so be it.Originally Posted by redietz
This can happen, but it really is rare. What is much more common is that requirements for future offers change un-beknowns- to you. Like you play xxxxx amount of coin in for several months which generates xx free play offer and then all of the sudden in month 4 your xxxxx amount only generates x amount of free play.Originally Posted by redietz
This happens when the casino tightens up it's marketing and offers, which has been the trend in vegas for several years now.
I dont know anyone that's had free play taken away once its been downloaded. I would be willing to bet it has happend. I'm sure multiple people have been kicked out of casinos mid free play.
P.S. I think Alan is trying circle back around to the value of a loss rebate and other AP shit in an effort to debunk the value of AP.
Last edited by AxelWolf; 11-20-2017 at 09:56 PM.
Hey now THIS doesn't sound like Alan.Originally Posted by AxelWolfAlan has no anti-AP agenda or anti-AP bias. I know this because Alan has repeatedly said so. And he has never been anything but truthful.
You know that long running show "criminal minds", where that specialized FBI unit solves the crimes by getting into the criminal's mind and mindset? That is what you are becoming. You better be careful inside Alan's mind. I'm guessing it is a scary place.Originally Posted by AxelWolf
There are two different ways to use the word "value". One is in a more mathematical type sense -- $100 in FP played on 9/6 JOB has a value of $99.54. Of course, there are other things that might decrease (or even increase) the value. If you believe there is a 50% chance the FP has been or will be revoked, then it's only worth half of that, so its value would be $49.77. Or, if you're also getting 0.3% cash-back while playing FP, then that $100 in FP would have a value of $99.84. If you aren't already going to be at the casino, you're going to lose some value because you have to go there (car + gas expense + spent time + lost money you could be making somewhere else).
Another way to use the word value is in a more entertainment type sense. How do I value a good night's (wtf or good nights?) rest? How do I value a free ticket to a water park, some collectible baseball card, a painting, or the value of $100 in FP? Someone might say they value $100 FP as 2 hours worth of free entertainment.
Someone might value a free movie ticket as being worth $15 (or however much a ticket costs) if that person enjoys watching movies and would watch that movie. I would value it as 1.5 hours of free entertainment, not as $15, because I wouldn't likely go see a movie (unless it's free), usually.
How much do I value FP? It depends where it is, when it's available, and if I'm going to be there or in that area. If it's $5 at Aliante, it's going to be close to $0 value to me (unless I'm up there for whatever f***ed up reason). If it's $1000 and across the street from me, it's going to be worth around $990 to $995. [Not saying I'd buy $1k in FP for $990, though.] Although I have purchased FP before, it was a fairly large amount and got a 12% discount on it.
I don't fire freeplay at video poker if they have vulturable line games in the house. Vulturing is a series of short term plays so I download the freeplay in small increments onto each play so I don't wind up with freeplay still on the machine when the play gets completed. It's worth far more doing it this way than running it on video poker.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
I totally get that, It's an obvious choice when playing free play, if and when you have a +EV situation to play. I'm not sure how much free play we are talking about here. fortunately, sometimes we are talking about thousands in free play, unfortunately, that's not something you want to go saving for a rainy day or a better play.Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I should have just said nothing. Alan would have to assume your FP was worth 30% more than face value(of course he would just claim you could lose it all and it would be worth nothing). At that point, he couldn't make his point very well. I doubt he would have come up with my argument(Hell, my argument might be flawed). Unlike him, I don't like to omit facts make up stuff, twist shit and play word games just to prove something, or not be proven wrong.. He won't make an argument, use facts or ask questions that don't fit his agenda unless he can twist it. He might back off if he has no place left to go. Unlike him, I actually want to understand things and know the real truth.
In this situation, I still cant buy the fact that the free play is worth 30% more than face value. You may be able to convince me that if you didn't have a +EV play to it on you would be forced to play it on something where you would have -EV, therefore you save money and possibly gain a few percent over the value.
Last edited by AxelWolf; 11-21-2017 at 02:12 AM.
oops
As I understand it, the value of free play is determined by how it's used. If $100 of free play is used at a 99.2% game then the $100 of free play is worth the EV of $99.20.
I understand AxelWolf who has disagreed with everything I said over the past 20 years will be shocked that I said this.
Whaaaa-a? An AP'er who believes in the short term? Can I forward this to Rob?Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Sling don't get caught up in Mickey using the words short term. All vulturing is short term. Either the play is right there in front of you or its not.
I had a senior moment.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I suspect this has happened to Dancer more than once -- the individual classification that does a "gotcha" with his free play assumption -- but I think Dancer would be hesitant to report such stuff because it undercuts his whole narrative.Originally Posted by kewlJHey, I this is your Alamo...so be it.Originally Posted by redietz
This can happen, but it really is rare. What is much more common is that requirements for future offers change un-beknowns- to you. Like you play xxxxx amount of coin in for several months which generates xx free play offer and then all of the sudden in month 4 your xxxxx amount only generates x amount of free play.Originally Posted by redietz
This happens when the casino tightens up it's marketing and offers, which has been the trend in vegas for several years now.
Point taken, but I'm insured with most banks. The bottom line is that I've had stashed (already earned) dollar amount of comps dramatically reduced without warning in the past, so it's something in my experience that is much more likely than a bank failure not backed by the feds. Had I been relying on my assumptions regarding comp values in the decisions (and math) of whether to play, these instances would have rendered my math and decisions to play wrong. That would have all been on me.Originally Posted by AxelWolfYou can still put a value on it, you just have to figure out what the odds of that happening are.Originally Posted by redietzI'm going to stand my ground on this and argue that free play can't have a value placed on it until you play it through because it can be revoked or reduced at the whim of the casino/slot club. It doesn't happen often, but it has happened before and it will happen again.Originally Posted by kewlJ
Even with real money or money in the bank there is a chance something can happen to it, so do you put less value on it untill it's spent? I would not agrue with you if you said yes.
There are some rare plays where you will get your value in as little as 2 hands.Originally Posted by slingshotWhaaaa-a? An AP'er who believes in the short term? Can I forward this to Rob?Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
What kind of comps are we talking about? If you are talking RFB comps, I put very little value on that kind of stuff. It's just icing on the cake.Originally Posted by redietzPoint taken, but I'm insured with most banks. The bottom line is that I've had stashed (already earned) dollar amount of comps dramatically reduced without warning in the past, so it's something in my experience that is much more likely than a bank failure not backed by the feds. Had I been relying on my assumptions regarding comp values in the decisions (and math) of whether to play, these instances would have rendered my math and decisions to play wrong. That would have all been on me.Originally Posted by AxelWolfYou can still put a value on it, you just have to figure out what the odds of that happening are.Originally Posted by redietz
Even with real money or money in the bank there is a chance something can happen to it, so do you put less value on it untill it's spent? I would not agrue with you if you said yes.
Originally Posted by AxelWolfTranslation #9365859: What kind of idiocy are we talking about?Originally Posted by OneHitWonderOn a gambling board, I think it's called straight-up mental illness.Originally Posted by quahaug
On second thought, it's a good time to make my last gambling forum post, ever. Can't sink much lower than this.
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