The final word on proving Dice Influencing

[OneHitWonder]

What is the betting strategy behind DI? Is it more elaborate than betting pass with free odds?

I can take a stab at this.

There are DIs who play pass and DIs who play don't pass. There are DIs who target certain numbers and DIs who don't.

Note: I know of few who actually are successful.

Also I've never heard of knowing your edge as part of learning dice influencing. Who thought this requirement up? The WOV forum perhaps?

Translation for fools: It follows simply from how much you make on the average night, over the course of a year, from how much you bet. And from how much more you make the next year. Anyone who wins would obviously know this, and think about it a lot in order to compare which techniques, etc, make them more money at which effort. You would have to be really stupid to not optimize such a good beginning, and spend twenty years at it instead of ten to "clean up" on such a cash cow. Only people who believe in "trying to win" in casinos. Trying to win is a very good thing, but what has that to do with casinos? Holy f, Alan, stupid or what.

[RS__]

What is the betting strategy behind DI? Is it more elaborate than betting pass with free odds?

I can take a stab at this.

There are DIs who play pass and DIs who play don't pass. There are DIs who target certain numbers and DIs who don't.

Note: I know of few who actually are successful.

Also I've never heard of knowing your edge as part of learning dice influencing. Who thought this requirement up? The WOV forum perhaps?

Playing with an advantage is a pre-requisite for advantage play. DIs are the only "APs" who don't know their edge. I mean, if someone introduced me into DI and I thought it was possible or at least pursuing, I'd want to make sure I had an advantage and thus an expectation to win. It'd be ludicrous to think otherwise.

[regnis]

I went back to work about 7 years ago after I ran out of places to throw the dice.

What?

You "ran out of places to throw the dice?"

What exactly does that mean?

It doesn't sound like you were barred from many joints, so you should have kept plying your craft: I know I would have.

Lots and lots of casinos in America, regnis, given the boom in casino construction.

If in fact I'd been earning as good an income as you claim, I'd have kept pouring on the coal, taking my gig on a quasi-permanent road trip if necessary.

Sorry, got to call bullshit.

V. I am not here to please you. I really don't care what you think or believe. I ran out of casinos locally and in Vegas that would either allow me to throw or had tables conducive to controlling. At present in Illinois, there is only one casino on which the tables are to my liking. I also had a life and family that didn't allow me to travel all over the country. The other reasons that went into my "retiring" from dice are none of anyone's business, although a couple of the main ones were boredom, a health issue, and my distaste for smoke filled casinos.

But more importantly, I had long time clients that were at stages of their lives in which they needed my help, and I could make much more $$ in less time and with less stress then going to casinos. I did that for about seven years and now for the last 5 years or so I work part time and play horses full time. Now I have found my perfect niche. So what you thought was a gotcha moment just aint all that.

As to the "need" to know my edge, I still find it unimportant. Some rolls it is a few extra rolls. Some it is 20. Some it is 100. So you tell me the edge. I don't know. But I can tell you I consistently out-rolled the dice. Why do I need to know by what percentage? But I did know that I could roll 8's and 10's, and I bet accordingly. What percentage--who gives a crap.

I will comment no further on the subject and should have known better than to express my initial comments on dice control. I just want to wallow in my anonymity.

[redietz]

What is the betting strategy behind DI? Is it more elaborate than betting pass with free odds?

I can take a stab at this.

There are DIs who play pass and DIs who play don't pass. There are DIs who target certain numbers and DIs who don't.

Note: I know of few who actually are successful.

Also I've never heard of knowing your edge as part of learning dice influencing. Who thought this requirement up? The WOV forum perhaps?

Playing with an advantage is a pre-requisite for advantage play. DIs are the only "APs" who don't know their edge. I mean, if someone introduced me into DI and I thought it was possible or at least pursuing, I'd want to make sure I had an advantage and thus an expectation to win. It'd be ludicrous to think otherwise.

Technically, RS, if you consider winning sports bettors, winning poker players, and winning horse bettors as APs, then what you just said is incorrect. None of these are going to quote you a direct, precise edge, and it's pretty much impossible to do so as you're dealing with disparate elements. For example, for sports, you might be dealing with futures, contests, straight betting, middles shooting, all completely disparate, all requiring a change in emphasis depending on the year. Same with poker -- head-to-head, standard play, tournament play, investing in other players, and so on. No precise numbers there, either. Same with horses. You have futures, straight betting, exotics betting, tournament play, investing in other players, and so on.

You can't just ask what the edge is -- you'd have to survey the player regarding all of the aspects.

[AxelWolf]

Can I ask what you estimate your approximate edge at on average?

Honestly I have no idea. I was playing a negative game and making bets that were not the best bets either. I primarily bet the 10 which, even buying it, is not a bet that "experts" would recommend. I don't bet pass or come as I don't want to cash every second time a number hits. So I give up that small edge and place or buy. I also pound the hard ways. So no--I really can't say what my edge was.

What the anti DI crowd doesn't understand is that shooters who can influence the dice have certain signature numbers -- numbers that they are more likely to hit. I don't know how to figure the math the way Axel wants it or the way any of the math guys want it.

Regnis said it right: craps is a negative expectation game. All you have to do is leave the table with more than you came with. Who cares about the math? It's the money that counts.

This is when I'm sorry Singer isn't here. Singer would simply say the math doesn't matter, and what matters is if you leave with more money than you came with. And Singer doesn't even play craps.

Wasn't it you that said you only cared about your SRR numbers?
That tells me right there that you somewhat believe one should be keeping track of something other than just simple wins and losses.

I believe Wincraps will tell you what your advantage is while practicing, There is no way I could take anyone seriously if they don't practice at home(even if it's just with a shooting rig) and have some kind of program.

Why would anyone go to the casino with the intentions of being a DI but not have any clue if they actually have an advantage or not? Do they just think if I do X,Y & Z I'll magically have an advantage because that's what the book says? That just sounds like someone using DI to have an excuse to gamble without feeling bad about it.

Yes, Alan, I know you don't claim to be a true DI. This was not all directed at you.

[AxelWolf]

I can take a stab at this.

There are DIs who play pass and DIs who play don't pass. There are DIs who target certain numbers and DIs who don't.

Note: I know of few who actually are successful.

Also I've never heard of knowing your edge as part of learning dice influencing. Who thought this requirement up? The WOV forum perhaps?

Playing with an advantage is a pre-requisite for advantage play. DIs are the only "APs" who don't know their edge. I mean, if someone introduced me into DI and I thought it was possible or at least pursuing, I'd want to make sure I had an advantage and thus an expectation to win. It'd be ludicrous to think otherwise.

Technically, RS, if you consider winning sports bettors, winning poker players, and winning horse bettors as APs, then what you just said is incorrect. None of these are going to quote you a direct, precise edge, and it's pretty much impossible to do so as you're dealing with disparate elements. For example, for sports, you might be dealing with futures, contests, straight betting, middles shooting, all completely disparate, all requiring a change in emphasis depending on the year. Same with poker -- head-to-head, standard play, tournament play, investing in other players, and so on. No precise numbers there, either. Same with horses. You have futures, straight betting, exotics betting, tournament play, investing in other players, and so on.

You can't just ask what the edge is -- you'd have to survey the player regarding all of the aspects.

Come on now, comparing Poker to DI is silly since the players and other conditions are always changing. Poker players figure out what their hourly is after many hours of play. Obviously, things get messed up if you win a big tournament or play a wide variety of limits.

There is no reason a DI cant figure out what their advantage is while in practice if you keep it simple. NO ONE IS ASKING FOR AN EXACT PERCENTAGE. I would just like a ball park number. .1% to .4%, .5 to 2%, 3% to 5%, 6% to 8 % 9%++ ?

Here are a few reason why a DI won't tell you what they think their advantage is.

1) They don't have one(the real reason).
2) They have no fucking clue if they are winning or losing overall, they just have faith it works.
3) The bullshitters out there trying to convince people they are DI'S and that it works, for whatever reason. They know better to claim anything too high because that would mean they should be crushing the casinos and rolling in money. It would be very obvious and easy to demonstrate. If the number is too low no one would be interested and the variance would be high and any winning claims could be chalked up to simple variance.

[MisterV]

regnis, thank you for posting what you did post; by your own report it was tough to do it, knowing that DI critics such as myself would in all likelihood tee off on you.

You know what actually happened: fair 'nuf.

[redietz]

regnis, thank you for posting what you did post; by your own report it was tough to do it, knowing that DI critics such as myself would in all likelihood tee off on you.

You know what actually happened: fair 'nuf.

I don't play craps. Am I naive in assuming that any "practice table" would be no guarantee to be a match to any kind to tables in any particular casinos? And am I naive to assume that casinos routinely swap out their tables or resurface them, which would presumably change everything?

I'm stumbling to a clumsy analogy here, but shooting free throws indoors on a 1950's indoor rim is dramatically different from shooting outside on a slightly bent playground metal rim versus shooting free throws on a college court. The same player shooting on the three different courts could have significantly different percentages. Wouldn't the same thing apply to a practiced throw on different tables with surfaces of different ages? A person could be 80%+ on a modern college court and closer to 73% or 74% on a 1950's no-give rim. Isn't it likely a practiced shooter could be profitable on one surface and not another?

[AxelWolf]

I went back to work about 7 years ago after I ran out of places to throw the dice.

What?

You "ran out of places to throw the dice?"

What exactly does that mean?

It doesn't sound like you were barred from many joints, so you should have kept plying your craft: I know I would have.

Lots and lots of casinos in America, regnis, given the boom in casino construction.

If in fact I'd been earning as good an income as you claim, I'd have kept pouring on the coal, taking my gig on a quasi-permanent road trip if necessary.

Sorry, got to call bullshit.

V. I am not here to please you. I really don't care what you think or believe. I ran out of casinos locally and in Vegas that would either allow me to throw or had tables conducive to controlling. At present in Illinois, there is only one casino on which the tables are to my liking. I also had a life and family that didn't allow me to travel all over the country. The other reasons that went into my "retiring" from dice are none of anyone's business, although a couple of the main ones were boredom, a health issue, and my distaste for smoke filled casinos.

But more importantly, I had long time clients that were at stages of their lives in which they needed my help, and I could make much more $$ in less time and with less stress then going to casinos. I did that for about seven years and now for the last 5 years or so I work part time and play horses full time. Now I have found my perfect niche. So what you thought was a gotcha moment just aint all that.

As to the "need" to know my edge, I still find it unimportant. Some rolls it is a few extra rolls. Some it is 20. Some it is 100. So you tell me the edge. I don't know. But I can tell you I consistently out-rolled the dice. Why do I need to know by what percentage? But I did know that I could roll 8's and 10's, and I bet accordingly. What percentage--who gives a crap.

I will comment no further on the subject and should have known better than to express my initial comments on dice control. I just want to wallow in my anonymity.

I know you said you wouldnt comment further. I will ask anyway. Could you have successfully demonstrated influence on the dice?

P.S. Knowing you could roll 8's and 10's and betting it accordingly would be very easy to figure out your approximate advantage with very little effort.

[MisterV]

By report, one countermeasure adopted by casinos to the threat of dice setters winning millions from them was to make surfaces bouncier and / or otherwise less hospitable for DI.

Heavy once spoke of a "frankenstein table," with different materials under the felt, not just one unifrom material.

An at-home rig is fine for practicing grip and throw, but yeah, the actual casino conditions cannot be duplicated without tremendous expense to the at home player, and even if he gets a craps table of his own, it is pretty worthless because of the variation in casino tables and playing conditions.

[RS__]

I can take a stab at this.

There are DIs who play pass and DIs who play don't pass. There are DIs who target certain numbers and DIs who don't.

Note: I know of few who actually are successful.

Also I've never heard of knowing your edge as part of learning dice influencing. Who thought this requirement up? The WOV forum perhaps?

Playing with an advantage is a pre-requisite for advantage play. DIs are the only "APs" who don't know their edge. I mean, if someone introduced me into DI and I thought it was possible or at least pursuing, I'd want to make sure I had an advantage and thus an expectation to win. It'd be ludicrous to think otherwise.

Technically, RS, if you consider winning sports bettors, winning poker players, and winning horse bettors as APs, then what you just said is incorrect. None of these are going to quote you a direct, precise edge, and it's pretty much impossible to do so as you're dealing with disparate elements. For example, for sports, you might be dealing with futures, contests, straight betting, middles shooting, all completely disparate, all requiring a change in emphasis depending on the year. Same with poker -- head-to-head, standard play, tournament play, investing in other players, and so on. No precise numbers there, either. Same with horses. You have futures, straight betting, exotics betting, tournament play, investing in other players, and so on.

You can't just ask what the edge is -- you'd have to survey the player regarding all of the aspects.

When I and others whom I bet sports with -- when we put in a bet, we either know what our edge is or we at least have the ability to determine what it is. Sometimes it's rather precise and other times it's a rough figure, but either way, we can do it.

What do you mean poker players don't know, either? I don't play poker, but the few poker players I do know, they can tell me what their hourly EV is on an awesome table, great table, or normal table.

So sure, a sports bettor or poker player may not know his edge down to the decimal point, but that's not what I'm asking of a DI. I understand sports and poker are different "games" and don't always have a very accurate way in calculating the EV. However, with DI, it's different. You can calculate your edge in craps. Craps isn't a game of opinion or reading people. It's more like VP, BJ, or other games where you can calculate A will happen X%, B will happen Y%, C will happen Z%,....therefore my edge is E.

It's just incredible to me that someone would go into a venture, with an AP mindset, yet not have a clue what his advantage is or if he even has one. Surely you must have done the math to make sure you had an edge? That's literally one of the first things I do when I stumble upon a new play -- sometimes it can be determined to a very precise number (I'm playing W amount on X game and getting Y and Z back in benefits...) and other times there's some guesswork involved (ie: unknown slot % returns).


It seems like if a DI were getting into real estate, he would read a bunch of articles and books on the subject, put $100-200k cash into a briefcase, drive to the nearest "House For Sale!" sign, contact the agent and buy it without even looking at the house. When someone asks how much he thinks he can make on the house per year, he says, "Well, I read that people buy houses, rent them out, and make money. What do you mean, I have to do math and figure out my monthly costs compared to the income? Why would I need to do that? I make more than I lose, it's that simple!"

Or it would be like an experienced cook or chef opening up a restaurant. All he thinks about is he can cook high quality food, people will come, and he'll make money. That's it. He doesn't hire an accountant or some kind of financial or business specialist. He's just like, "Yeah, this is what restaurants do, they cook food for people and the restaurant makes money." Meanwhile, the chef has no idea how much the raw materials he's going to be ordering costs, how much rent costs, insurance, lights, staff wages, prices on the menu. He's just like, "Yeah, I cook food, people buy it. I make money. Why do I need to figure everything else out -- I'm making money, right?"

[Alan Mendelson]

AxelWolf the SRR is a measure of how well you avoid rolling 7s... or how good you are rolling 7s if you're a don't player. For some players a high SRR is good and for others it's bad.

I did start a thread once suggesting that players with a high SRR should try the Bonus Bets at craps because to hit the ALL you have to throw ten different numbers and the average or typical shooter throws only 5.

Personally I don't keep count of my SRR. I really don't know any players who do.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm a bit in shock here. I've never heard about the EV of DIs and I've read all the books and attended many seminars and hob nobbed with many of the "leaders" of the "gangs." (I don't know what to call them.)

On this forum is the first time I've heard the question asked. I've never heard it in the context of poker either.

I doubt this question was just invented so where did it come from and what form of gambling does it apply to?

Frankly I never heard ANY ONE on this forum refer to their EV as a player. Not you RS, not Arci, not jbjb, not Axel, not Biloxi, nit Dan, not even Singer. And suddenly it's a big issue?

[OneHitWonder]

I will comment no further on the subject and should have known better than to express my initial comments on dice control. I just want to wallow in my anonymity.

Another happy customer with "tail" between legs.

Don't worry, no one is going to miss you.

[OneHitWonder]

Frankly I never heard ANY ONE on this forum refer to their EV as a player. Not you RS, not Arci, not jbjb, not Axel, not Biloxi, nit Dan, not even Singer. And suddenly it's a big issue?

Only people without an edge don't know it. No one ever said that they lost with such and such a disadvantage.

[mickeycrimm]

Online cash game poker players measure their expectation by how many big blinds per 100 hands they are winning. Tournament players measure their expectation as a fraction or multiple of the buy-in. Phil Hellmuth says his expectation is 5 times the buy-in.

[OneHitWonder]

I will comment no further on the subject and should have known better than to express my initial comments on dice control. I just want to wallow in my anonymity.

Another happy customer with "tail" between legs.

Persons think that bull garbage about what they do in real life supports their claims. In fact, it's what they do at the casinos that leads into question what they claim of a real life. (Mental illness.)

I have wondered for some time what the so-called lawyers here really do for a living.

Turns out Alan is some old guy from radio days who sells advertising, and lives alone.

[OneHitWonder]

You can't just ask what the edge is -- you'd have to survey the player regarding all of the aspects.

When it's all said and done, there's more said than done.

[RS__]

I'm a bit in shock here. I've never heard about the EV of DIs and I've read all the books and attended many seminars and hob nobbed with many of the "leaders" of the "gangs." (I don't know what to call them.)

Actually, that doesn't surprise me at all. Not because it's something the teachers should be teaching (because they should be teaching it), but it makes sense since DIs never talk about it. They likely don't teach it because if a DI were to calculate his EV before actually tossin' dem bones for real, he'd never toss the bones for real, because he likely wouldn't have +EV after doing the appropriate math.

On this forum is the first time I've heard the question asked. I've never heard it in the context of poker either.

I doubt this question was just invented so where did it come from and what form of gambling does it apply to?

Frankly I never heard ANY ONE on this forum refer to their EV as a player. Not you RS, not Arci, not jbjb, not Axel, not Biloxi, nit Dan, not even Singer. And suddenly it's a big issue?

What'a'ya talkin' about? You don't remember me saying anything about 10% edges or Rob's most hated 17% advantage play in LV? Or that I've said there are plenty of plays in Vegas in the less than 0.5% edge range? Rob Stringer did say he played the quad 7's triple payout (his ONLY advantage play, where he supposedly lost several hundred thousand on $1-$2 denom). He said his edge was either 1% or 2%, but it is/was actually correct.

[Alan Mendelson]

I've heard of edges and returns in video poker of course.

Again my invitation is open: anyone want to watch me shoot duce and figure my edge? I'd love to have it happen.

Frankly since I don't have a profit playing craps please direct your criticisms to those who claim they do win.

I'm just trying to influence the dice.

Frank Scoblete talks about the math of craps. I don't think he ever discussed the edge of The Captain and his crew.