Is Sports Betting AP Play?

[mickeycrimm]

The kind of drawings I avoid are the electronic ones where you are competing against everyone in the house and the drawing tickets are based on the action each player creates. So many drawing tickets for so much action and it doesn't matter if it's video poker, video keno, or video line games. I can't dominate in that spot. But I think Dancer excels in these kinds of drawings because at $125 a hand he can generate enough action to get a high percentage of the tickets.

[regnis]

But I'm not sure Singer was wrong for criticizing so called APs when someone plays negative expectation video poker, includes drawing tickets "won" for playing video poker in the return, then loses the drawing.

Singer is not an AP. He knows nothing about how to dominate the drum in a drawing promotion. Not all drawings are worth playing. You have to pick and choose carefully to insure you can dominate the drum.

Here is an example from one of my past plays. The Sands Regency in Reno put on a royal promotion. Whoever got the most royals got $10,000, 2nd place $5000, 3rd place $2000. In addition you got a drawing ticket for every royal flush. At the end of the promotion another $10,000 was given away in $500 increments when your ticket was drawn from the drum. That's 20 chances at $500.

My first thought was hundred play. I found two with penny 8/5 Super Aces, a 99.9% game. They were the only two hundred plays in the building. So I was there early to lock one up. So was someone else. I hit 147 royals, the other player outraced me and hit 169 so she got first place. 3rd place had 42.

I wound up a few hundred dollar loser on the Super Aces. But I got the 2nd place money, $5000. Then got my name drawn 6 times in the drawing for another $3000. I estimated I had 25% of the drum so came in about right in the drawing.

That's how you work a drawing, Alan. You dominate the drum as much as possible.

Did you alter your play to try for more royals or just use "proper" play?

[redietz]

The kind of drawings I avoid are the electronic ones where you are competing against everyone in the house and the drawing tickets are based on the action each player creates. So many drawing tickets for so much action and it doesn't matter if it's video poker, video keno, or video line games. I can't dominate in that spot. But I think Dancer excels in these kinds of drawings because at $125 a hand he can generate enough action to get a high percentage of the tickets.

This is great information. Thanks for sharing it.

[kewlJ]

Singer is not an AP.

This is the key to many /most conversations on this site, past and present.

But I'm not sure Singer was wrong for criticizing so called APs when someone plays negative expectation video poker, includes drawing tickets "won" for playing video poker in the return, then loses the drawing.

Ok, I'll go along with this to some extent. I have won a number of these drawings, the biggest 3 which were a new vehicle, mortgage payments for a year and (indirectly) $10,000 cash, plus a number of smaller cash amounts and prizes. I don't have the slightest idea how to figure what the Ev (expected value) would be for this. So I handle these opportunities as a bonus. I never try to figure Ev from these things, nor play anything JUST to be entered into a drawing or contest. It is just an extra bonus, if and when I (we) win something. We don't go out off our way to try, and usually won't make a special trip to be present at some sort of drawing. Naturally, it is "I win", when I win and "we win" when my partner wins. (I am kidding of course...everything 50/50 on both my AP partnerships)

Here's a humorous (to me) story from several months ago. My partner is over the age of 50, so he gets all those 50 & 55 players club benefits...you know the concept should be illegal under reverse age discrimination, but that's another matter. So we went to one off the local stores on a Wednesday (senior day) to play our free play and play coin in that would generate free play and offers for the following months. This particular chain, the senior benefits include 50 points played for a free lunch or breakfast buffet, another 100 points gets you a dinner buffet on top of the breakfast/lunch buffet. We usually eat lunch and don't return for dinner. Another senior benefit is entry into a 5 pm drawing that you must be present for, for small cash prizes o $100 to $500. On this day we were there in the morning and ate breakfast.

Later in the day, our casino day over, my partner feeling hungry as he is 24/7 , suggested we return to the property for the dinner buffet, since his would be free on the basis off being old and having earned (far more) than 150 points that day. Timing, completely unplanned, we walked in the door, just as the 5pm senior drawing was being announced, only to hear his name over the loud speaker. $250....every little bit helps. but we would have never gone out of our way to be present at this geriatrics () drawing.

Sorry that I got sidetracked with that little story, but what I wanted to say and the reason I posted in this thread, Alan, was to say that while I agree somewhat that only chasing drawing and contests as opposed to seeing them as some sort of extra bonus, likely crosses some sort of line from AP mindset to gambling mindset for all but the most expert for these drawing/contest players (of which I/we are not), it is very contradictory, even bizarre that you find such value in these kind of statements by your friend Singer, but completely look the other way to his very odd and improbable claims of winnings (as much as he claimed) through negative Ev play. It is hard to see you as anything but non-objective when you do that.

Singer is not an AP.

Singer is not an AP.

This short statement by mickey is SO important to so many discussions on this site, I am just going to quote it a couple more times for good measure.

[OneHitWonder]

This is great information. Thanks for sharing it.

Anyone want to look at both sides of also this next "coin" more carefully?

[kewlJ]

Now speaking of sportbetting...my last two Saturday's...college football....0-9 and 2-6. Who goes 0-9 in games that they like!?

At this point I should decide who I like and bet the other way, or just flip a coin. So, who (redietz??) wants to give me a pick or two from the handful of college championship games on Saturday that they like even a little bit?

[redietz]

Now speaking of sportbetting...my last two Saturday's...college football....0-9 and 2-6. Who goes 0-9 in games that they like!?

At this point I should decide who I like and bet the other way, or just flip a coin. So, who (redietz??) wants to give me a pick or two from the handful of college championship games on Saturday that they like even a little bit?

Not me. I have nada Friday/Saturday except a teaser on the Under of the ULM/FSU game. I was so desperate for plays in the Wise Guys that I used two NFL totals this week. To give you some idea, of the previous 24 Wise Guy games, I used 23 college.

Always a bad idea to launch a bunch of plays when 25-30% of the members of various coaching staffs are coaching their final games at the current schools and all of the seniors, both going and not going to the NFL, just want to not get hurt.

Almost forgot: we do have Georgia at +900 to win the SEC and 45-1 to win the national title, so we're hedging that in a serious fashion. That's actually the focus of the week.

[Alan Mendelson]

If I recall Dancer did not win the car. That was his AP play. Without winning the car what happens?

[OneHitWonder]

One can view the world either as a participant, an observer, or a mixture of the two.

Or vicariously through catharsis, sadism and voyeurism, say.

Zen only helps with the focus; we need to figure it out on our own.

Actuality or matter is focus; space-time is the uncertainty or pre-randomness in the periphery: mind is reality, now, a combination of the two.

[mickeycrimm]

If I recall Dancer did not win the car. That was his AP play. Without winning the car what happens?

Dancer has cashed in hundreds of drawings....but no one cashes in all of them. I'll answer your question with a question. If the house loses a hand of blackjack what happens?

[mickeycrimm]

But I'm not sure Singer was wrong for criticizing so called APs when someone plays negative expectation video poker, includes drawing tickets "won" for playing video poker in the return, then loses the drawing.

Singer is not an AP. He knows nothing about how to dominate the drum in a drawing promotion. Not all drawings are worth playing. You have to pick and choose carefully to insure you can dominate the drum.

Here is an example from one of my past plays. The Sands Regency in Reno put on a royal promotion. Whoever got the most royals got $10,000, 2nd place $5000, 3rd place $2000. In addition you got a drawing ticket for every royal flush. At the end of the promotion another $10,000 was given away in $500 increments when your ticket was drawn from the drum. That's 20 chances at $500.

My first thought was hundred play. I found two with penny 8/5 Super Aces, a 99.9% game. They were the only two hundred plays in the building. So I was there early to lock one up. So was someone else. I hit 147 royals, the other player outraced me and hit 169 so she got first place. 3rd place had 42.

I wound up a few hundred dollar loser on the Super Aces. But I got the 2nd place money, $5000. Then got my name drawn 6 times in the drawing for another $3000. I estimated I had 25% of the drum so came in about right in the drawing.

That's how you work a drawing, Alan. You dominate the drum as much as possible.

Did you alter your play to try for more royals or just use "proper" play?

It was an option I didn't use.

[Alan Mendelson]

If I recall Dancer did not win the car. That was his AP play. Without winning the car what happens?

Dancer has cashed in hundreds of drawings....but no one cashes in all of them. I'll answer your question with a question. If the house loses a hand of blackjack what happens?

Dancer isn't the house. Neither are you. And I'm certainly not.

[OneHitWonder]

Dancer isn't the house. Neither are you. And I'm certainly not.

And there we have it. The short story. Nobody here is dominating anything. We exist because of the gambling industry. Divided and conquered.

[AxelWolf]

If I recall Dancer did not win the car. That was his AP play. Without winning the car what happens?

Dancer has cashed in hundreds of drawings....but no one cashes in all of them. I'll answer your question with a question. If the house loses a hand of blackjack what happens?

Dancer isn't the house. Neither are you. And I'm certainly not.

What does it really matter who the house is? Sure the house can outlast most people, but there are people who can afford to lose a significant amount of money while ridding out the variance.

[mickeycrimm]

Dancer isn't the house. Neither are you. And I'm certainly not.

The house is not Dancer. Neither are you. And I'm certainly not.

The house is in the gambling business. Dancer is in the gambling business. What does the house do after they pay off a big keno ticket? They move on to the next game. What does Dancer do when he loses on a play? He moves on to the next play.

[Alan Mendelson]

My point is this: earning or winning entry tickets does not create the advantage play. Entry tickets actually have zero value unless you rigged the contest. But cash back, free play, and certain comps do have an actual value.

Dancer can claim that his entry tickets for drawing have a value but they don't. So each time he plays a -EV video poker game he is hoping that he can turn a negative play into a positive one.

Mickey had the casino paid you an automatic bonus for each royal you would have had an advantage play. In reality you played a -EV game hoping to turn it positive in the secondary contest.

This is far different than the original question. Redietz had knowledge for an advantage play by knowing teams and associated knowledge. He doesn't have to hope to win a secondary contest that is out of his control.

Mickey even though you identified only two multi play machines the drawing/contest was out of your control.

You can't have an advantage if there are elements out of your control. You can't.

[RS__]

Ah, now I'm remembering again why I had Alan blocked in the past, but un-did it when the rest of the retards stopped posting (Singer, Belly, etc.).

Alan, let's say I'm having a raffle, grand prize is $1,000,000! There are a total of 100 tickets entered in the raffle. Do you think you'd have an advantage if you bought one of those tickets for $10? Nevermind, that's like asking a newborn what's the cube root of 27 -- it doesn't have the slightest idea what words those words mean, let alone any kind of math.

You can't have an advantage if there are elements out of your control. You can't.

Lol, this is comedy gold.

Using Alan "MoneyMan" Mendelson's logic, redeitz can't have an advantage because there are things out of his control -- a player could get hurt at the last second, errmagurdd, no more advantage!

[mickeycrimm]

My point is this: earning or winning entry tickets does not create the advantage play. Entry tickets actually have zero value unless you rigged the contest. But cash back, free play, and certain comps do have an actual value.

Dancer can claim that his entry tickets for drawing have a value but they don't. So each time he plays a -EV video poker game he is hoping that he can turn a negative play into a positive one.

Mickey had the casino paid you an automatic bonus for each royal you would have had an advantage play. In reality you played a -EV game hoping to turn it positive in the secondary contest.

This is far different than the original question. Redietz had knowledge for an advantage play by knowing teams and associated knowledge. He doesn't have to hope to win a secondary contest that is out of his control.

Mickey even though you identified only two multi play machines the drawing/contest was out of your control.

You can't have an advantage if there are elements out of your control. You can't.

Everything is just the opposite of what you say. Drawing tickets have value whether you choose to believe it or not. The only way ones tickets don't have value is if the contest is rigged. You can claim that Dancer's tickets don't have value but they do.

Let's say the drawing is for $10,000. I can get 10% of the tickets in the drum by running $100,000 in action on NSUD, a 99.73% game. My expected loss on the NSUD would be $270 but I have a 10% chance to win $10,000. That's $1000 in equity. That's how the advantage is created whether you choose to believe it or not.

And here you are now saying freeplay does have value when your stance for so long was it doesn't.

[mickeycrimm]

Drawings are not as good as they used to be because casino personnel have learned a few things. At a lot of drawings it used to be you could win multiple times. If they were drawing 20 winners for $1000 each you were eligible each time a ticket was drawn. But most places have changed that because of player feedback. And it wasn't AP feedback. It was the recreational players who demanded a change. This is how things used to go at some of those drawings back in the day:

An AP finds a drawing where he can dominate the drum. Say gets 50% of the tickets in the drum by running big action and they are drawing 20 winners.. On drawing day when they started drawing for winners and the room is packed with players it went something like this. The first time the AP is drawn he gets a rousing ovation like the other winners get. The 2nd time he gets drawn everyone is amazed. "He won twice!!! Amazing!!!" people are saying. The 3rd time he gets drawn there is no applause but rather people mumbling under their breath. The 4th time he gets drawn they are no longer mumbling. They are practically screaming:

"What the hell!"
"Fix! Fix! Fix!"
"I'm never coming here again!!! This is bullshit!!!"
"The goddam thing is rigged!"

The 5th time he gets drawn people start walking out the door.

The good intentions of casino personnel by putting on a drawing has turned into a public relations nightmare. So now you will find that at most drawings you can only win once. It was AP action that caused this not so little rule change.

[jbjb]

Must be that only small casinos or some in Vegas that still use physical tickets and a drum. Most places across the country use a virtual drum.

Many years ago though, a casino me and the gf were at at the time had a drawing where the chosen person got into one of those cash machines that blow money in the air and you have to grab as much as possible in something like 30 seconds. One guy came in with two FULL garbage bags of entry tickets. He had well over 75% of the tickets in the drum. His name was called.