Bubble Craps

[tableplay]

Now, regarding using Bubble Craps to run up status points at a fixed or mostly-fixed cost, is this a viable substitute for the relatively high variance VP?

I'm guessing no.

This is because Bubble Craps is far slower than VP, so it's probably much slower to accumulate tier credits.

Take a $2/credit VP game, played at max credits. That's $10 per hand. The average experienced VP player can play 500 hands per hour. At $10 coin-in per tier credit at a Caesars property, you're earning 500 tiers per hour in that game, and you can reach the 2500 tier mark after 5 hours of play, which then gets you 5000 bonus tiers. This would allow you to make Diamond after 2 days of play, of 5 hours each.

Now take Bubble Craps. If it's rating like a VP machine, it will also be $10 per tier credit. But I imagine you probably can't get off more than 100 hands per hour. (I'm just guessing here, never having played it.) So that would require $50 bets if you can manage 100 per hour, to accomplish the same thing. And if you can't even get 100 hands per hour, you need to bet higher than that. What are the limits of Bubble Craps?

Table limits vary widely. Also there a per bet limits and a total table limit. At a burn joint you could bet say $195 on the pass and $195 on the don't and perhaps some other side bets which in aggregate can't exceed $500. OTOH, go to a fancy property and you might be able to bet a grand on each side and this would make up for the slower action on bubble craps versus VP.

[tableplay]

The main problem, IMO, with bubble craps is it generally gives you almost no points. I think at CET properties it's like $50/TC or maybe $100/TC. I haven't looked at one in a CET property in LV in quite a while, but I remember it being really high.

At other casinos, the craps machines usually have a similarly high amount of coin in per point, compared to their other machines. That's if you're lucky. Most of the time, they just don't give you any points. Also, much of the time, free-play doesn't work on craps machines, although it works at some places.

To be able to find a good play on a craps machine isn't going to be anywhere near as frequent as finding a good play on slots or VP. You pretty much need "a perfect storm" scenario, where a bunch of pieces line up perfectly and if one of them doesn't fit in just right, it's no good. While every game in a casino can be beaten under the proper circumstances, the right circumstances for a craps machine to be beatable is a rare occurrence, a least in my experience. Although I will admit, one benefit of finding a play on a craps machine is it's super duper easy. You don't really have to think, you just keep making the same bets over and over again, or whatever it is you have an advantage on...unlike VP where you have to think of a proper hold and actively moving, or slots where you're jamming the re-spin button...you just place some bets and relax, and if you're lucky, you don't even have to hit the button to "roll" the dice.


I haven't played very many craps machines, but from what I remember the few that I have played or at least checked to see the max, it seems the max bet on the pass line is generally between $100 and $200. Odds vary from a flat 2x on everything (even lay, so with a $50 DP, you can only lay $100, no matter the point) to 3/4/5x. I think odds also have a limit, similar to the PL. So if the max on PL is $100, the max on the odds might be $100 as well, even though it offers 2x odds. The minimum bet is usually $2 and max total bet varies wildly (ie: total in action, not just on a single bet); I think the craps machine at Aria, when I last saw it, had something like $5,000 max bet, even though you could only bet a few hundred on the PL.

Here's a perfect storm: go to Rail City in Sparks on a 10x Wednesday and "bring a friend" (make sure to sign up for player's club cards and put them in the bubble craps machines). The action should generate some nice mailers (gives same comps as VP whether on a 1x day or 10x day).

[redietz]

The half dozen people I know who played this game did so at the Golden Nugget in downtown LV and at Pechanga. They reported accruing comp points at a slot machine rate. When only two of them were at the machine, a roll occurred every 40 seconds. Some of them were playing $20-$40 a roll; some were playing at $50 on average.

[mickeycrimm]

Question: Do these bubble craps games have free odds?

[tableplay]

Question: Do these bubble craps games have free odds?

Yes Mickey. On Aruze machines I believe they are 2x and you get paid fair odds. So once you survive the point you can puts odds (also hedged for both sides) on your don't and pass line bets to increase your betting/churning size and you will not pay a vig for this portion of your bet.

[mickeycrimm]

Question: Do these bubble craps games have free odds?

Yes Mickey. On Aruze machines I believe they are 2x and you get paid fair odds. So once you survive the point you can puts odds (also hedged for both sides) on your don't and pass line bets to increase your betting/churning size and you will not pay a vig for this portion of your bet.

That's going to reduce the house edge. I'll work on it when I get home.

[FABismonte]

Question: Do these bubble craps games have free odds?

Hi Mickey:

Yes. There are free odds in all Bubble Craps machines I have played. Usually they are double odds. But it varies. By way of example, Casino Royale in Vegas has 5 times odds. El Cortez has 3 times odds. Because it is a machine, you do not round up like on a table to the nearest dollar and so you get paid in cents if mathematically appropriate.

FAB

[Travis McGee]

The bouncy floor is not determining the number rolled! It's just not! That would not be random and would be highly exploitable. That bouncy floor and roll is just for show. The roll is determined by computer!

KJ who said this?

I too want to know how the machine supposedly makes the dice land per the RNG. I'm not buying it. I think there's enough shaking, vibrating and poping that the dice end up being as random as it can get.
The RNG does not tell the dice how to land IMO.

Even if it did, just like in VP, they can't adjust the RNG to determine the desired hold(I believe that's what Travis is claiming about the craps?) they would have to change the payouts.

Agian,
from my understanding, per Nevada Gaming, anything using dice or cards must be random and represent real dice outcomes. If that's the case, it would not make sense, at least here in NV that machine percentages could be adjusted using the RNG, they would have to change the payouts.

AxelWolf, you are correct in that they can adjust the "RNG" to determine the desired hold for each particular casino. They do this for most slot machines, including VP on a regular basis, sometimes weekly. At more modern casinos, like Aria they can do it remotely from behind closed doors, whereas older casinos like downtown, Palms or Santa Fe Station you will see them changing the motherboards periodically like on Thursday or Friday morning before the California weekend crowds come in.

According to our records, the largest hold for the casinos on the Aruze red dice craps machines (tightest or worst payoff for players) is:
- Ellis Island (I actually saw this change from the honeymoon period of being "loose" when they first installed the machine at Ellis Island and then they changed the payoff when they moved it over closer to the restaurant. It was night and day.)
- Palms (somebody has to pay for all those renovations)

Speaking of InterBlock Organic roulette, the largest casino hold (worst for player) is in:
- Palace Station (again somebody has to pay for all those renovations)
- Palms (somebody has to pay for all those renovations)

To see this for yourself, just go down and watch the InterBlock Organic roulette precision wheel after you make all your bets. Once the computer has calculated the proper hold for the casino from everyone's bets, and no more bets are allowed, you will notice the wheel spin up or slow down after the ball is rolled all too often. It doesn't have to do this every roll, but just evey so often to keep the hold in check.

kewlJ, I agree with your observation. Many parts of Las Vegas have been built on the art of deception or misdirection. The bouncing dice is no different.



On the side note, I have not meant to threaten anyone. My office however does tract IP addresses of those visiting my website just like most businesses (it's amazing how many casinos from all over the world visit my site). Also, I do not mind skeptics. In fact I think a good consumer should be skeptical. But to call something a scam with zero basis and without ever viewing the videos just because they don't understand something is a little childish and inmature. For instance, last week on the Strip there was a person playing craps on the same side of the table as I was. He saw me call off my bets correctly 5 out of 6 times within 2 rolls of a 7 out (most just 1 roll before the 7 out). He became so outraged that he was losing and I was winning that he started cursing and yelling and throwing an inmature sore loser fit because he did not understand how or what I was doing. The Boxman had to come over and physically pull him away from the table about 20 feet trying to calm him down until security got there.

Several weeks earlier, at Bally's I was on the only player on the Don't side. After about 30 minutes, all the players on my side of the table started playing the Don'ts copying my play. The Boxman soon was saying after each 7 out, Pay everyone on this side and take away these bets on this other side.

I don't win all the time, in fact I lost a net bet the other day this month. But I did go the whole months of October and November without losing a single craps bet

[Travis McGee]

The main problem, IMO, with bubble craps is it generally gives you almost no points. I think at CET properties it's like $50/TC or maybe $100/TC. I haven't looked at one in a CET property in LV in quite a while, but I remember it being really high.

At other casinos, the craps machines usually have a similarly high amount of coin in per point, compared to their other machines. That's if you're lucky. Most of the time, they just don't give you any points. Also, much of the time, free-play doesn't work on craps machines, although it works at some places.

RS is correct, most Las Vegas CET properties are $200/TC.

And if you think about having a buddy play your extra card or play on 2 monitors, don't do it in front of a guy named Paul at Palms or Casino Royale (bald with a half ear that used to work Security at Binions). Paul will go to casino management and tell them you are cheating the system and try to have you banned.

[mickeycrimm]

The main problem, IMO, with bubble craps is it generally gives you almost no points. I think at CET properties it's like $50/TC or maybe $100/TC. I haven't looked at one in a CET property in LV in quite a while, but I remember it being really high.

I suspect the reason for the low point rate is this game probably got tagged by AP's, under certain conditions, when they first came out. I gleaned these numbers off of WOO.

Pass/2X odds = .606% house edge
Don't Pass/2X odds = .468% house edge

If you bet both sides it averages to .537%

I figure AP's found situations where the comp and/or freeplay was worth more than the house edge so they scaled back the amount of points you get playing this game.

[Alan Mendelson]

Yes. The Don't player needs to bet the 12 to protect his bet. But when he loses the bet on the 12 the house wins it's edge.

No Alan, this is incorrect (the part about which bet is protected is incorrect, but your answer of "Yes" to Coach Belly's question is correct). The Come Player's bet is protected with the horn bet on 12 (on the initial come out roll) not the Don't Player, who doesn't care if a 12 is rolled because it is just a push for his or her bet.

If you are team playing and a 12 rolls there is no win for the don't player, and the pass player loses. This means the don't player needs to bet the 12 as a hedge for a team play.

[mickeycrimm]

AxelWolf, you are correct in that they can adjust the "RNG" to determine the desired hold for each particular casino. They do this for most slot machines, including VP on a regular basis, sometimes weekly. At more modern casinos, like Aria they can do it remotely from behind closed doors, whereas older casinos like downtown, Palms or Santa Fe Station you will see them changing the motherboards periodically like on Thursday or Friday morning before the California weekend crowds come

An astute player could never be fooled. They can't change the payback of a video poker without changing the payscale. I personally have never seen video poker payscales change according to the day of the week but maybe someone else has. I've never seen payscale changes from day to day reported on any of the gambling sites.

The Bubble Craps must have payscales on them too so no astute player could be fooled.

[Alan Mendelson]

There is server based gaming now which can change machine pays after machines have been idle for a certain amount of time. But I don't know any casino that actually has server based games.

[mickeycrimm]

Yes. The Don't player needs to bet the 12 to protect his bet. But when he loses the bet on the 12 the house wins it's edge.

No Alan, this is incorrect (the part about which bet is protected is incorrect, but your answer of "Yes" to Coach Belly's question is correct). The Come Player's bet is protected with the horn bet on 12 (on the initial come out roll) not the Don't Player, who doesn't care if a 12 is rolled because it is just a push for his or her bet.

If you are team playing and a 12 rolls there is no win for the don't player, and the pass player loses. This means the don't player needs to bet the 12 as a hedge for a team play.

By betting the 12 you are adding a huge negative expectation bet to the equation. At 30 to 1 it's a 14% house edge.

[mickeycrimm]

This is Nevada Control Board Regulation 14 which governs gaming devices. Scroll to page 8 to read the laws concerning machines.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...CCCxFRUXnUeKya

[tableplay]

Yes. The Don't player needs to bet the 12 to protect his bet. But when he loses the bet on the 12 the house wins it's edge.

No Alan, this is incorrect (the part about which bet is protected is incorrect, but your answer of "Yes" to Coach Belly's question is correct). The Come Player's bet is protected with the horn bet on 12 (on the initial come out roll) not the Don't Player, who doesn't care if a 12 is rolled because it is just a push for his or her bet.

If you are team playing and a 12 rolls there is no win for the don't player, and the pass player loses. This means the don't player needs to bet the 12 as a hedge for a team play.

No he doesn't. The Come player can press his finger on his monitor for the midnight horn bet just as easily the don't side bettor Alan (assuming the team even wants to decrease their EV by placing a horn bet on the Bar) - you just need to designate one team member to do it. Furthermore your statement "The Don't player needs to bet the 12 to protect his bet" is incorrect as I posted previously. Nothing is mentioned about a team in this statement.

[tableplay]

This is Nevada Control Board Regulation 14 which governs gaming devices. Scroll to page 8 to read the laws concerning machines.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...CCCxFRUXnUeKya

Thanks for posting this link. I found the following statutes to be extremely valuable to the non-civilian (especially if the non-civilian can find out what hours define a "day" on the slot machine(s) of interest):

14.045
Minimum standards for inter-casino linked systems.
All inter-casino linked systems submitted for approval:
1. Shall, in the case of an inter-casino linked system featuring a progressive payoff schedule that increases as the inter-casino linked system is played, have a minimum rate of progression for the primary jackpot meter of not less than .4 of one percent of amounts wagered.

In the case of an inter-casino linked system featuring a progressive payoff schedule that increases over time, have a minimum rate of progression for the primary jackpot meter of not less than one hundred dollars per day. The provisions of this subsection do not prevent an operator from limiting a progressive payoff schedule as allowed by Regulation 5.112(5).

[RS__]

Specifically, it's on page 9, #5.

"5. For gaming devices that are representative of live gambling games, the mathematical probability
of a symbol or other element appearing in a game outcome must be equal to the mathematical probability
of that symbol or element occurring in the live gambling game"


In other words, on 00 roulette, each number is just as likely to hit: 1/38. In craps, each die is equally likely to land on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 -- ie: each combination has a 1/36 chance of occurring.




However, I don't see anything that states the machine can't use an RNG to come up with an outcome and then have the roulette ball land on that number or some special magnets in the craps dice to flip to whatever orientation the RNG says it should land on. But even if it did do this, well, it doesn't really matter, since the odds would be the same either way. I think it's a billion times more likely the roulette ball is spun and it lands wherever it lands and the craps dice are jumbled up and they land however they hand. Plus, if there was a magnet in the craps dice, then how come sometimes a die will not settle properly and the machine will re-roll?

[redietz]

Specifically, it's on page 9, #5.

"5. For gaming devices that are representative of live gambling games, the mathematical probability
of a symbol or other element appearing in a game outcome must be equal to the mathematical probability
of that symbol or element occurring in the live gambling game"


In other words, on 00 roulette, each number is just as likely to hit: 1/38. In craps, each die is equally likely to land on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 -- ie: each combination has a 1/36 chance of occurring.




However, I don't see anything that states the machine can't use an RNG to come up with an outcome and then have the roulette ball land on that number or some special magnets in the craps dice to flip to whatever orientation the RNG says it should land on. But even if it did do this, well, it doesn't really matter, since the odds would be the same either way. I think it's a billion times more likely the roulette ball is spun and it lands wherever it lands and the craps dice are jumbled up and they land however they hand. Plus, if there was a magnet in the craps dice, then how come sometimes a die will not settle properly and the machine will re-roll?

If you scroll waaaaay back in this thread, you'll see a post where I said I didn't get what Mr. Mendelson was talking about because my understanding was that machines that simulate table games had to have odds analogous to the table games, such as video poker being comprised of a 52-card non-rigged deck.

Thanks, RS, for pinning that down.

I just wanted to reiterate that however bad the comp rate on these things at CET properties, the people who told me they played at the GN and Pechanga reported slot-ish comp point accrual. Better than video poker.

[RS__]

If you scroll waaaaay back in this thread, you'll see a post where I said I didn't get what Mr. Mendelson was talking about because my understanding was that machines that simulate table games had to have odds analogous to the table games, such as video poker being comprised of a 52-card non-rigged deck.

Thanks, RS, for pinning that down.

I just wanted to reiterate that however bad the comp rate on these things at CET properties, the people who told me they played at the GN and Pechanga reported slot-ish comp point accrual. Better than video poker.

To be fair, it was Mickey who found and posted the regulations. But yes, it's always been my understanding that games that simulate "real life" stuff are required to act like "real life stuff", for lack of better words.

Yeah, sometimes they mess up and set the theoretical loss or the point accrual inaccurately.* Not an e-table game, but I have played VP machines where they set the theoretical loss to 10x what it should have been set to. So, the casino thought I should'a been losing about 10x the amount I actually should have been losing. Also I've (once for sure, maybe more I can't remember) found a machine where the point accrual was way off and getting 25x points without a point multiplier day thingie. Unfortunately it was a lower denom machine and had pretty bad paytables so it wasn't great, but it was decent and kinda fun while it lasted a short time.

*Note: The theoretical loss they set on the machine is not the "hold" or "house edge" or whatever else. It's just the amount they expect you to lose. For instance, a VP game might have a 99.54% return which is a 0.46% HE, if played optimally. Since most casino-goers don't play optimally, they aren't expected to lose 0.46% of their action, they play so poorly it might be 2% or 3%, so the theoretical loss is likely somewhere in that range. AFAIK, they can set the theo to whatever they want, even though the HE is unchanged, assuming you're using the proper strategy.