Bubble Craps

[kewlJ]

As I said before, over on WOV Mike took enough interest in that there might be some merit to someone's claims regarding organic roulette avoiding sections of the wheel when it detected people wheel clocking. Normally Mike dismisses that stuff unless theres some legitimate smoke.

I think you sometimes give Mike too much credit. I respect Mike, especially his math abilities, I really do. I am long past my personal bad feelings for him, but he is just a guy, a strong math guy with an opinion, not some god that whatever he says....is.

There is a guy in the BJ community goes by the handle Tarzan, based out of Atlantic City, lives very close to AC. Tarzan has successfully employed a very complex count of his own I guess invention (?) for 30 years, and made significant money doing so. It's a complex, 3 column count. I guess with his career winding down (I think he is in his 60's), Tarzan is writing a book and currently on one of the blackjack sites there is extensive conversation about it, and simulations that have to be uniquely created for this count and data collected and all that.

Now personally, I have great respect for Tarzan and have had extensive communications with him privately, BUT his approach is complete opposite of what I believe is important in today's game. I believe simplicity is more important today than ever. These complex counts are highlighting the wrong thing, playing efficiency, when it is betting correlation that really matters today. Playing efficiency mattered more 30-40 years ago.

So anyway, (back on track), while I believe this Tarzan count is severe overkill, and not the way to go in 2017, it is a legitimate count and Tarzans results of 30 years prove that. So when Tarzan was in Vegas about 2 years ago, he met with Mike to demonstrate his count. Mike dismissed it as a "parlor trick" (Mike's words), saying it was totally useless in actual play. Like I said, I am not a fan of Tarzan's approach, but it is not a parlor trick. The guy has made millions. So Mike's opinion is Mike's opinion. He is a valued Math guy and I respect him. He is not god.

[AxelWolf]

It would seem to me NON-random dice outcomes would be a violation of the gaming regulations.

Axel, I gotta laugh at this because there are lots of things the casino industry does that SHOULD be in violation of casino regulations. It is a matter of enforcement and sometimes looking the other way by gaming.

KJ

The Chinese prison card allegations and short changing 10's and aces, is a bit much for me, but I do think ZK has some good points.

One being the recent decision of many casinos to no longer spread the cards when they are introduced into play. Transparency should be paramount to this particular industry. Integrity and the customer feeling he/she is getting a fair shake is of the utmost importance. It is a horrible idea and decision to compromise that in the name of saving a couple minutes. Why do they think those procedures were put in place to begin with? This is another of many decision by new generation MBA types, rather than the real casino guys that used to run things.

Second thing I personally have begun to have a problem with is the newer generation Automatic Shuffle Machines (ASM) not to be confused with CSM's. The newer machines have a small numerical keypad where a code (industry calls it a key) is entered to put the machine in a mode to pre-arrange cards in several different ways. The industry will tell you this is to determine if cards are missing, but several of the sequences are clearly "shady".

I am basing my recent concerns on two things, one extensive conversations with a pit friend who has told me just what these machines are capable of, and second my very unusual results at one specific local casino that utilizes one of these machines. I have witnessed someone from the pit enter a code and boom, I go on an extended losing streak. I know people will say small sample size and all, but I really have a pretty significant sample size and this is the only location that I am in the red in Las Vegas with such a significant sample size.

I actually attempted to get my hands on one of these machines (not only for this but other reasons that you might guess) as there was an individual in Europe that was selling one, but there were some problems with getting it into the U.S., so I abandoned the idea.

On one hand, you have to laugh and make it seem as if it's a possibility, but then when I mention Mikes name you say, "I give him too much credit."
what's up with that?

Let's be clear, I never said I believe the roulette allegations, especially since there was a fair bit of unknows and anonymity. This isn't the first time I have heard this. I was saying that whoever talked to Mike about this gave him enough evidence and I assume this guy had enough of a believable reputation that Mike saw fit to say something about it. IMO It was not just some crazy guy going on complete confirmation bias like many of them types do.

I still remain skeptical and I would want to know more about the guy making the claims and who vouches for him and his credibility, however, It would not be something I would completely dismiss if I have my money on the line. I don't want to go around saying its as impossible, as let say...18 yo's in a row.

Regarding you wanting to get your hands on a shuffle machine, I think that can be easily arranged at a cost significantly less than you were seeing online. My question to you, do you know someone or have the ability to figure them out? I don't think this would be an easy quick task(depending on what information you are looking for).

PM me and we can talk.

[tableplay]

Related thread of possible interest:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...vulnerability/

[Alan Mendelson]

Related thread of possible interest:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...vulnerability/

Similar false assumptions.

[Travis McGee]

Similar false assumptions.

It seems to me the media's job is pretty easy. Get facts, verify facts and tell people those facts. Why do they make it look so hard?

For instance, one media type could for instance wonder into a very often tite hold empty Palms craps machine and play 2 monitors.

1st, just Play $5 on the Pass Line on 1 monitor for 144 random rolls (don't push the red button to roll the dice, let it time out roll on it's own) and use your Player's Card.

Count how many 12s were rolled and compare that to:

2nd, Play $5 on the Pass Line on 1 monitor AND $5 on the Don't Pass on the other monitor for 144 random rolls (don't push the red button to roll the dice, let it time out roll on it's own) and use your Player's Card on both monitors.

Now compare how many 12s were rolled during this 2nd 144 rolls (also be aware of how many 6 faces are on the individual die trying to roll a 12).

Make no other bets during this process and do so at a time when there are no other players on the table for both 144 roll tests.

Hint: I have done these tests and my statements above are based upon my results. If you don't believe me, do your own tests to see if these craps machines are RNG or PRNG (deterministic algorithms).

[Alan Mendelson]

Your tests of 144 rolls are insignificant. Next.

[tableplay]

Similar false assumptions.

It seems to me the media's job is pretty easy. Get facts, verify facts and tell people those facts. Why do they make it look so hard?

For instance, one media type could for instance wonder into a very often tite hold empty Palms craps machine and play 2 monitors.

1st, just Play $5 on the Pass Line on 1 monitor for 144 random rolls (don't push the red button to roll the dice, let it time out roll on it's own) and use your Player's Card.

Count how many 12s were rolled and compare that to:

2nd, Play $5 on the Pass Line on 1 monitor AND $5 on the Don't Pass on the other monitor for 144 random rolls (don't push the red button to roll the dice, let it time out roll on it's own) and use your Player's Card on both monitors.

Now compare how many 12s were rolled during this 2nd 144 rolls (also be aware of how many 6 faces are on the individual die trying to roll a 12).

Make no other bets during this process and do so at a time when there are no other players on the table for both 144 roll tests.

Hint: I have done these tests and my statements above are based upon my results. If you don't believe me, do your own tests to see if these craps machines are RNG or PRNG (deterministic algorithms).

Travis, what were your percentages of midnight under each of the two experiments ? We can perform a t-test (http://www.excel-easy.com/examples/t-test.html) to determine if the populations are statistically different under each of the conditions if you are willing to supply this information.

[Travis McGee]

Travis, what were your percentages of midnight under each of the two experiments ? We can perform a t-test (http://www.excel-easy.com/examples/t-test.html) to determine if the populations are statistically different under each of the conditions if you are willing to supply this information.

tableplay, Thank you for your offer. Unfortunately, we have already done the analysis on several casinos across the USA and that data has become proprietary in developing our Trinty Method betting. Its conclusions are available in the product, but disclosing such here would be a violation of the License Agreement. About all I can say is what I have posted here and previously:

AxelWolf, you are correct in that they can adjust the "RNG" to determine the desired hold for each particular casino.

According to our records, the largest hold for the casinos on the Aruze red dice craps machines (tightest or worst payoff for players) is:
- Ellis Island (I actually saw this change from the honeymoon period of being "loose" when they first installed the machine at Ellis Island and then they changed the payoff when they moved it over closer to the restaurant. It was night and day.)
- Palms (somebody has to pay for all those renovations)

[tableplay]

Travis, what were your percentages of midnight under each of the two experiments ? We can perform a t-test (http://www.excel-easy.com/examples/t-test.html) to determine if the populations are statistically different under each of the conditions if you are willing to supply this information.

tableplay, Thank you for your offer. Unfortunately, we have already done the analysis on several casinos across the USA and that data has become proprietary in developing our Trinty Method betting. Its conclusions are available in the product, but disclosing such here would be a violation of the License Agreement. About all I can say is what I have posted here and previously:

AxelWolf, you are correct in that they can adjust the "RNG" to determine the desired hold for each particular casino.

According to our records, the largest hold for the casinos on the Aruze red dice craps machines (tightest or worst payoff for players) is:
- Ellis Island (I actually saw this change from the honeymoon period of being "loose" when they first installed the machine at Ellis Island and then they changed the payoff when they moved it over closer to the restaurant. It was night and day.)
- Palms (somebody has to pay for all those renovations)

Ok. GSR (in Sparks) has 25 cent minimum Interblock machine craps. Depending on my mood, I may decide to perform your experiment, and, if I do, at about 1/20th the cost (25 cent denomination versus $5 denomination) of the original experiment you performed. I'm guessing this would also be cheaper than paying the cost to purchase the Trinity Method.

[Travis McGee]

Ok. GSR (in Sparks) has 25 cent minimum Interblock machine craps. Depending on my mood, I may decide to perform your experiment, and, if I do, at about 1/20th the cost (25 cent denomination versus $5 denomination) of the original experiment you performed. I'm guessing this would also be cheaper than paying the cost to purchase the Trinity Method.

tableplay, We have not tested GSR in Sparks so that woud be fun. However, a different casino and only 1 casino may not make a valid comparison. GSR in Sparks may not be as tight as Palms. Not every casino has the same hold rate selected. Several variables are available.

[tableplay]

Ok. GSR (in Sparks) has 25 cent minimum Interblock machine craps. Depending on my mood, I may decide to perform your experiment, and, if I do, at about 1/20th the cost (25 cent denomination versus $5 denomination) of the original experiment you performed. I'm guessing this would also be cheaper than paying the cost to purchase the Trinity Method.

tableplay, We have not tested GSR in Sparks so that woud be fun. However, a different casino and only 1 casino may not make a valid comparison. GSR in Sparks may not be as tight as Palms. Not every casino has the same hold rate selected. Several variables are available.

Travis, all it takes is to find one rigged bubble craps machine and all dominoes fall.

[mickeycrimm]

Ok. GSR (in Sparks) has 25 cent minimum Interblock machine craps. Depending on my mood, I may decide to perform your experiment, and, if I do, at about 1/20th the cost (25 cent denomination versus $5 denomination) of the original experiment you performed. I'm guessing this would also be cheaper than paying the cost to purchase the Trinity Method.

tableplay, We have not tested GSR in Sparks so that woud be fun. However, a different casino and only 1 casino may not make a valid comparison. GSR in Sparks may not be as tight as Palms. Not every casino has the same hold rate selected. Several variables are available.

Travis, the pay scale tells the story. It's time to call you what you are, a crackpot.

[Travis McGee]

Travis, all it takes is to find one rigged bubble craps machine and all dominoes fall.

tableplay, on the surface I would agree with you, but I would prefer more than 1 test case. With just 1 bad apple, Casinos can always fall back on their standby excuse "Malfunction Voids All Pays and Plays". On the other hand, we do have enough stats to prove there are more than enough machines just in Las Vegas that are well outside the standard deviation of normal RNG. If your particular machine's hold has been cranked up, you will be able to notice the "targeting" the 12 effect especially at the $5 level.

However, the problem with playing only at the 25 cent level is that maybe a very bad craps player (gambler) had come in the day before and lost $100. betting on bad bets like the Horn so now the Casino hold is way ahead and it can afford to let you win or not target the 12 at your low level of play. In other words, the casino has it's profit margin for a few days and can afford to dump or let you win at such small levels.

[mickeycrimm]

Travis, all it takes is to find one rigged bubble craps machine and all dominoes fall.

tableplay, on the surface I would agree with you, but I would prefer more than 1 test case. With just 1 bad apple, Casinos can always fall back on their standby excuse "Malfunction Voids All Pays and Plays". On the other hand, we do have enough stats to prove there are more than enough machines just in Las Vegas that are well outside the standard deviation of normal RNG. If your particular machine's hold has been cranked up, you will be able to notice the "targeting" the 12 effect especially at the $5 level.

However, the problem with playing only at the 25 cent level is that maybe a very bad craps player (gambler) had come in the day before and lost $100. betting on bad bets like the Horn so now the Casino hold is way ahead and it can afford to let you win or not target the 12 at your low level of play. In other words, the casino has it's profit margin for a few days and can afford to dump or let you win at such small levels.

Travis, P-RNG's do not function that way. The subject has been beaten to death in the 12 years I've been in the gambling forums. Can you get one noted expert, repeat NOTED EXPERT, to agree with your opinion on this? Compensated slots are not legal in the United States.

[mickeycrimm]

deleted. duplicate post.

[LarryS]

Travis, all it takes is to find one rigged bubble craps machine and all dominoes fall.

tableplay, on the surface I would agree with you, but I would prefer more than 1 test case. With just 1 bad apple, Casinos can always fall back on their standby excuse "Malfunction Voids All Pays and Plays". On the other hand, we do have enough stats to prove there are more than enough machines just in Las Vegas that are well outside the standard deviation of normal RNG. If your particular machine's hold has been cranked up, you will be able to notice the "targeting" the 12 effect especially at the $5 level.

However, the problem with playing only at the 25 cent level is that maybe a very bad craps player (gambler) had come in the day before and lost $100. betting on bad bets like the Horn so now the Casino hold is way ahead and it can afford to let you win or not target the 12 at your low level of play. In other words, the casino has it's profit margin for a few days and can afford to dump or let you win at such small levels.

what?? the casinos find that they won more than expected on a given day on a machine,,,so they "let up" the nexd day and let people win more?? WTF

[mickeycrimm]

what?? the casinos find that they won more than expected on a given day on a machine,,,so they "let up" the nexd day and let people win more?? WTF

I never thought I would, ahem, agree with larry on anything. But I happen to agree with him here. It's preposterous.

[Travis McGee]

Travis, all it takes is to find one rigged bubble craps machine and all dominoes fall.

tableplay, on the surface I would agree with you, but I would prefer more than 1 test case. With just 1 bad apple, Casinos can always fall back on their standby excuse "Malfunction Voids All Pays and Plays". On the other hand, we do have enough stats to prove there are more than enough machines just in Las Vegas that are well outside the standard deviation of normal RNG. If your particular machine's hold has been cranked up, you will be able to notice the "targeting" the 12 effect especially at the $5 level.

However, the problem with playing only at the 25 cent level is that maybe a very bad craps player (gambler) had come in the day before and lost $100. betting on bad bets like the Horn so now the Casino hold is way ahead and it can afford to let you win or not target the 12 at your low level of play. In other words, the casino has it's profit margin for a few days and can afford to dump or let you win at such small levels.

Travis, P-RNG's do not function that way. The subject has been beaten to death in the 12 years I've been in the gambling forums. Can you get one noted expert, repeat NOTED EXPERT, to agree with your opinion on this? Compensated slots are not legal in the United States.

mickeycrimm, We have live casino evidence compared to your gambling forum debates. I will offer our evidence as expert testimony. You choose which you wish to believe. I will give you just a tad bit more of deterministic random bit generator (DRBG) proof to ponder - we have a list of casinos in town that will pay back 100+% on freeplay 100 percent of the time on certain slot machines, yet the same slot machines at other casinos (even within same ownership) will pay back closer to ZERO percent of freeplay 100 percent of the time. So is that what you call random or deterministic?

[mickeycrimm]

tableplay, on the surface I would agree with you, but I would prefer more than 1 test case. With just 1 bad apple, Casinos can always fall back on their standby excuse "Malfunction Voids All Pays and Plays". On the other hand, we do have enough stats to prove there are more than enough machines just in Las Vegas that are well outside the standard deviation of normal RNG. If your particular machine's hold has been cranked up, you will be able to notice the "targeting" the 12 effect especially at the $5 level.

However, the problem with playing only at the 25 cent level is that maybe a very bad craps player (gambler) had come in the day before and lost $100. betting on bad bets like the Horn so now the Casino hold is way ahead and it can afford to let you win or not target the 12 at your low level of play. In other words, the casino has it's profit margin for a few days and can afford to dump or let you win at such small levels.

Travis, P-RNG's do not function that way. The subject has been beaten to death in the 12 years I've been in the gambling forums. Can you get one noted expert, repeat NOTED EXPERT, to agree with your opinion on this? Compensated slots are not legal in the United States.

mickeycrimm, We have live casino evidence compared to your gambling forum debates. I will offer our evidence as expert testimony. You choose which you wish to believe. I will give you just a tad bit more of deterministic random bit generator (DRBG) proof to ponder - we have a list of casinos in town that will pay back 100+% on freeplay 100 percent of the time on certain slot machines, yet the same slot machines at other casinos (even within same ownership) will pay back closer to ZERO percent of freeplay 100 percent of the time. So is that what you call random or deterministic?

Really? Have you called gaming to report the gaffed machines?

[mickeycrimm]

tableplay, on the surface I would agree with you, but I would prefer more than 1 test case. With just 1 bad apple, Casinos can always fall back on their standby excuse "Malfunction Voids All Pays and Plays". On the other hand, we do have enough stats to prove there are more than enough machines just in Las Vegas that are well outside the standard deviation of normal RNG. If your particular machine's hold has been cranked up, you will be able to notice the "targeting" the 12 effect especially at the $5 level.

However, the problem with playing only at the 25 cent level is that maybe a very bad craps player (gambler) had come in the day before and lost $100. betting on bad bets like the Horn so now the Casino hold is way ahead and it can afford to let you win or not target the 12 at your low level of play. In other words, the casino has it's profit margin for a few days and can afford to dump or let you win at such small levels.

Travis, P-RNG's do not function that way. The subject has been beaten to death in the 12 years I've been in the gambling forums. Can you get one noted expert, repeat NOTED EXPERT, to agree with your opinion on this? Compensated slots are not legal in the United States.

mickeycrimm, We have live casino evidence compared to your gambling forum debates. I will offer our evidence as expert testimony.[/B]

What are your credentials in the gaming industry?