FRUGAL VIDEO POKER

[mickeycrimm]

There is a thread on WoV called "Computing Probability of Starting Hands." The OP wants to know if there is any software available that tells you, according to the payscale, how often you will see each type of playable hand. He has gotten several responses so far but not a response that I would give. One of my regrets of being barred from the site is not being able to answer questions like this. But that is my own fault.

Finding these frequencies is easy with Frugal Video Poker. The first screenshot is of Frugal Video Poker. Above the payscale is the Machines tab. Click on that and there will be a list of about 100 different video poker games to choose from. I chose 9/6 Jacks.

Also above the payscale is the Strategy Charts tab. Click on that then click on View Strategy Chart. It will show you the strategy chart which you can see in the 2nd screenshot. On the right is a tab called Add Statistics. Click on that then check the boxes that say Appeared and Cycle....which I've already done. This will place those statistics next to the strategy chart.

Next to the strategy chart you can see the columns called Appeared and Cycle. One of the hands talked about in the thread at WoV was the QJ offsuit....and how often you will play that hand. You can see QJ offsuit as hand 24 and highlighted in blue in the strategy chart. Next to it, under Appeared is the number 65844. And next to that column you will see in the Cycle column the number 39.5.

The number in the Cycle column means you will play that hand, on average, every 39.5 games. But that number is rounded. There are 2,598,960 five-card combinations in a 52 card deck. That number is derived from this equation:

52X51X50X49X48/5X4X3X2X1 = 2,598,960

The precise number of combinations where you will play the QJ offsuit is 65,844....which you can see in the Appeared column. Dividing 2,598,960 by 65,844 gives you the precise answer as to how often you will play the QJ offsuit.

2,598,960/65,884 = 39.471478

[tableplay]

Nice work Mickey. The only thing I would add is to take the additional step of going to the "change pay tables" page and changing (please see the screenshot attached to this message which shows this process along with the statistics for every starting hand where a holding decision is required):
1) the pay table to match that of the Aces or Higher game posted in the WOV thread
2) The high pair to Aces (from the default of Jacks)


I created the custom game Aces or Better using the pay table that Jek187 outlined in his WOV post. You will see from the screenshot posted in this message that I had to approximate the fractional Straight Flush since Frugal Video Poker only accepts positive integers for the pay table values.

[mickeycrimm]

I missed jek187's post with the payscale. I'm curious about the game. Next time I'm though South Dakota I'll check it out. Tableplay, Jim Wolf, the creator of Frugal and Wolf Video Poker went out of business. My Frugal was executable so I put it on a thumb drive for backup in case of a computer crash or whatever. You should do the same. It's not for sale anymore.

[tableplay]

I missed jek187's post with the payscale. I'm curious about the game. Next time I'm though South Dakota I'll check it out. Tableplay, Jim Wolf, the creator of Frugal and Wolf Video Poker went out of business. My Frugal was executable so I put it on a thumb drive for backup in case of a computer crash or whatever. You should do the same. It's not for sale anymore.

Thanks Mickey - yes I do have the Frugal VP saved off. Jek187 wrote this: "The progressive on the machine has to do with when you have a 4 or a 9 in a losing hand. . . ." So the key to analysis on this game is to recognize that with a 4 or 9 in the (dealt) hand, it is not a losing hand as Jek187 inexplicably states - it should be part of the paytable because you are being paid for it (you are being paid a progressive amount). In essence it is not a "losing hand" you are getting paid for it as a progressive.

[jek187]

Thank you very much Mickey and TablePlay! That was exactly the information I was looking for. Going to work through my analysis now.

So, since there's curiosity about the game, I'll give you the remaining details:
There are two progressive pools, one for 4s and one for 9s. Anytime you have a losing pair of 4s or 9s in your hand, a number of credits equal to your bet are added to the respective pool. In the official rules for the game, it says the pools pay out at a random number in between 20 and 500 credits. In practice (and I used to work in a place with these machines), I have never seen the 4s pool payout above 100 credits (and, that number may be 80 credits, but working in those joints was a very long time ago), or the 9s pool pay out below 100 credits. Happy to answer any other questions you guys may have about it.

The machines are only denominated in quarters, so obviously any advantage play opportunity here is limited. That being said, if you guys are ever in the western part of the state, will be happy to take you out for a beer and introduce you to the wonder that is South Dakota's "bonus poker". I can pop back in with my analysis if that's of interest to anyone.

[tableplay]

Thank you very much Mickey and TablePlay! That was exactly the information I was looking for. Going to work through my analysis now.

So, since there's curiosity about the game, I'll give you the remaining details:
There are two progressive pools, one for 4s and one for 9s. Anytime you have a losing pair of 4s or 9s in your hand, a number of credits equal to your bet are added to the respective pool. In the official rules for the game, it says the pools pay out at a random number in between 20 and 500 credits. In practice (and I used to work in a place with these machines), I have never seen the 4s pool payout above 100 credits (and, that number may be 80 credits, but working in those joints was a very long time ago), or the 9s pool pay out below 100 credits. Happy to answer any other questions you guys may have about it.

The machines are only denominated in quarters, so obviously any advantage play opportunity here is limited. That being said, if you guys are ever in the western part of the state, will be happy to take you out for a beer and introduce you to the wonder that is South Dakota's "bonus poker". I can pop back in with my analysis if that's of interest to anyone.

Thanks Jek187, I'll pm you if I ever get around there. What happens if you are dealt a winning pair of 44s, say 44662, can you discard the 662 and try for a losing hand ? That is, does the aggregation to the pool, plus the chance to hit the progressive occur after the draw if the draw produces a losing hand ?

thanks.

[jek187]

Thank you very much Mickey and TablePlay! That was exactly the information I was looking for. Going to work through my analysis now.

So, since there's curiosity about the game, I'll give you the remaining details:
There are two progressive pools, one for 4s and one for 9s. Anytime you have a losing pair of 4s or 9s in your hand, a number of credits equal to your bet are added to the respective pool. In the official rules for the game, it says the pools pay out at a random number in between 20 and 500 credits. In practice (and I used to work in a place with these machines), I have never seen the 4s pool payout above 100 credits (and, that number may be 80 credits, but working in those joints was a very long time ago), or the 9s pool pay out below 100 credits. Happy to answer any other questions you guys may have about it.

The machines are only denominated in quarters, so obviously any advantage play opportunity here is limited. That being said, if you guys are ever in the western part of the state, will be happy to take you out for a beer and introduce you to the wonder that is South Dakota's "bonus poker". I can pop back in with my analysis if that's of interest to anyone.

Thanks Jek187, I'll pm you if I ever get around there. What happens if you are dealt a winning pair of 44s, say 44662, can you discard the 662 and try for a losing hand ? That is, does the aggregation to the pool, plus the chance to hit the progressive occur after the draw if the draw produces a losing hand ?

thanks.

Yep, you can discard a winning hand to try and work on the progressive. I am, however, struggling to come up with any scenario where you'd want to do that, other than bizarre time/bankroll constraints. Of course, thinking about that, does lead to an interesting thought. If you were dealt 44662, and the 4s pool was at 99 credits, the math would probably say it's more +EV to dump one of the 6s (or maybe the entire 662.) However, that's only because the math doesn't know that we can keep going for the pool on subsequent hands, while we can only get the 2 pair payout now. There's actually a lot of scenarios that I think about with this game (usually involving a single 9 or 4) that quickly make my brain start to melt when I imagine how to optimize. Of course, for now though, just my basic calculations should ballpark it. I imagine that ballpark will mean a prohibitively small number of machines are +EV, but sometimes, I just gotta scratch that OCD.

[mickeycrimm]

Thank you very much Mickey and TablePlay! That was exactly the information I was looking for. Going to work through my analysis now.

So, since there's curiosity about the game, I'll give you the remaining details:
There are two progressive pools, one for 4s and one for 9s. Anytime you have a losing pair of 4s or 9s in your hand, a number of credits equal to your bet are added to the respective pool. In the official rules for the game, it says the pools pay out at a random number in between 20 and 500 credits. In practice (and I used to work in a place with these machines), I have never seen the 4s pool payout above 100 credits (and, that number may be 80 credits, but working in those joints was a very long time ago), or the 9s pool pay out below 100 credits. Happy to answer any other questions you guys may have about it.

The machines are only denominated in quarters, so obviously any advantage play opportunity here is limited. That being said, if you guys are ever in the western part of the state, will be happy to take you out for a beer and introduce you to the wonder that is South Dakota's "bonus poker". I can pop back in with my analysis if that's of interest to anyone.

I'll let you know the next time I run through South Dakota. I know a few other expoitable plays there. Maybe you do too. They are to much of a pain in the ass for me to work but right up the alley for someone that lives there.

[jek187]

Thank you very much Mickey and TablePlay! That was exactly the information I was looking for. Going to work through my analysis now.

So, since there's curiosity about the game, I'll give you the remaining details:
There are two progressive pools, one for 4s and one for 9s. Anytime you have a losing pair of 4s or 9s in your hand, a number of credits equal to your bet are added to the respective pool. In the official rules for the game, it says the pools pay out at a random number in between 20 and 500 credits. In practice (and I used to work in a place with these machines), I have never seen the 4s pool payout above 100 credits (and, that number may be 80 credits, but working in those joints was a very long time ago), or the 9s pool pay out below 100 credits. Happy to answer any other questions you guys may have about it.

The machines are only denominated in quarters, so obviously any advantage play opportunity here is limited. That being said, if you guys are ever in the western part of the state, will be happy to take you out for a beer and introduce you to the wonder that is South Dakota's "bonus poker". I can pop back in with my analysis if that's of interest to anyone.

I'll let you know the next time I run through South Dakota. I know a few other expoitable plays there. Maybe you do too. They are to much of a pain in the ass for me to work but right up the alley for someone that lives there.

Please do Mickey. Would be fun to swap some plays.

[mickeycrimm]

Thank you very much Mickey and TablePlay! That was exactly the information I was looking for. Going to work through my analysis now.

So, since there's curiosity about the game, I'll give you the remaining details:
There are two progressive pools, one for 4s and one for 9s. Anytime you have a losing pair of 4s or 9s in your hand, a number of credits equal to your bet are added to the respective pool. In the official rules for the game, it says the pools pay out at a random number in between 20 and 500 credits. In practice (and I used to work in a place with these machines), I have never seen the 4s pool payout above 100 credits (and, that number may be 80 credits, but working in those joints was a very long time ago), or the 9s pool pay out below 100 credits. Happy to answer any other questions you guys may have about it.

The machines are only denominated in quarters, so obviously any advantage play opportunity here is limited. That being said, if you guys are ever in the western part of the state, will be happy to take you out for a beer and introduce you to the wonder that is South Dakota's "bonus poker". I can pop back in with my analysis if that's of interest to anyone.

I'll let you know the next time I run through South Dakota. I know a few other expoitable plays there. Maybe you do too. They are to much of a pain in the ass for me to work but right up the alley for someone that lives there.

Please do Mickey. Would be fun to swap some plays.

I would be interested in your analysis of the game. I will probably be though South Dakota in late January. I'll let you know when I'm headed that way.

[jek187]

Ok, I think I'm done with my initial analysis. But before I get to it, I need to include a couple disclaimers:

1) There are some minor differences between the Frugal Video Poker screenshots above and what's listed here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...-106.25-d-500/. The biggest of which is the discrepancy in the 3-flushes. Due to a need to keep the "appearances" stat consistent with FVP, I used it over the Wizard, even though I would imagine the Wiz's info is more accurate. I don't imagine it makes a material difference, but wanted to put it out there before anyone blew their bankroll based on my analysis.
2) With a project like this, I fully admit I'm prone to mistakes. So yet another caveat for when it comes to risking your bankroll.

That being said, the results pass the sniff test to me. I used a value of 100 for when the 4s pool had to pay out, along with a minimal value for the 9s pool to pay out. Listed below is what the pool level must be for the game to be roughly +EV:

4s 9s
82 0
80-81 100
79 158
78 199
77 228
76 251
75 268
74 283
73 294
72 304
71 313
70 320
69 326
68 332
67 337
66 341
65 345
64 348
63 351
62 354
61 357
60 359
59 361
58 363
57 365
56 367
55 369
54 370
53 372
52 373
51 374
50 375
49 376
48 378
47 379
45-46 380
44 381
43 382
42 383
40-41 384
39 385
37-38 386
35-36 387
33-34 388
31-32 389
29-30 390
27-28 391
24-26 392
21-23 393
20 394
0 399

Finally, I'm aware of a slew of little things that could add up if they were all accounted for with this game, which would obviously lower the above numbers. But I think this is a decent starting point. I'll try and get out and check on a decent sample machines to get an idea of how often it's playable.

[tableplay]

Ok, I think I'm done with my initial analysis. But before I get to it, I need to include a couple disclaimers:

1) There are some minor differences between the Frugal Video Poker screenshots above and what's listed here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...-106.25-d-500/. The biggest of which is the discrepancy in the 3-flushes. Due to a need to keep the "appearances" stat consistent with FVP, I used it over the Wizard, even though I would imagine the Wiz's info is more accurate. I don't imagine it makes a material difference, but wanted to put it out there before anyone blew their bankroll based on my analysis.
2) With a project like this, I fully admit I'm prone to mistakes. So yet another caveat for when it comes to risking your bankroll.

That being said, the results pass the sniff test to me. I used a value of 100 for when the 4s pool had to pay out, along with a minimal value for the 9s pool to pay out. Listed below is what the pool level must be for the game to be roughly +EV:

Thanks Jek187, interesting stuff - now that you found the profit zones, you can get a feel for how often the game is in a vulturable state when you go on vulture expeditions. As I posted above, you can create vulturable states more quickly by deliberately making winning two pair hands that have 44 in the them or 99 in them (if you have a 9944X hand you can decide which pair to toss by seeing which rank is closest to a "must pay") into losing ones by keeping the 44 or 99 pair and tossing the remaining three cards. If you know the probability of getting a payout from a given state (a particular row) in the table (which I assume you must or you wouldn't have been able to generate the table in the 1st place) you posted above, then you can calculate the row's EV (by multiplying the payout value by the associated probability). Then, if that EV exceeds 2 (the payout for two pair), you know that it is worth it to break up the two pair (I guess you have to make a small adjustment for the probability of turning the two pair into a full house by noting the frequency with which a two pair turns into a full house). There may even be some cases at the marginals of the table where it is worth it to break up a full house - you just have to calculate the EV of the vulturable state as described above and compare it to the payout of the pat hand.

Now if you don't have to max bet to get the 44/99 progressive to go up by one (by betting just one quarter instead of five), inducing vulturable states by throwing away 44/99-containing pat two-pair hands becomes even more with it. The edge decisions (to break up a pat two pair) will be those where you are just one tally away from being in a vulturable state, and by breaking up the pat hand, it transitions you from a non-vulturable state into a vulturable state (ie, to a row of your table).

[jek187]

Ok, I think I'm done with my initial analysis. But before I get to it, I need to include a couple disclaimers:

1) There are some minor differences between the Frugal Video Poker screenshots above and what's listed here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...-106.25-d-500/. The biggest of which is the discrepancy in the 3-flushes. Due to a need to keep the "appearances" stat consistent with FVP, I used it over the Wizard, even though I would imagine the Wiz's info is more accurate. I don't imagine it makes a material difference, but wanted to put it out there before anyone blew their bankroll based on my analysis.
2) With a project like this, I fully admit I'm prone to mistakes. So yet another caveat for when it comes to risking your bankroll.

That being said, the results pass the sniff test to me. I used a value of 100 for when the 4s pool had to pay out, along with a minimal value for the 9s pool to pay out. Listed below is what the pool level must be for the game to be roughly +EV:

Thanks Jek187, interesting stuff - now that you found the profit zones, you can get a feel for how often the game is in a vulturable state when you go on vulture expeditions. As I posted above, you can create vulturable states more quickly by deliberately making winning two pair hands that have 44 in the them or 99 in them (if you have a 9944X hand you can decide which pair to toss by seeing which rank is closest to a "must pay") into losing ones by keeping the 44 or 99 pair and tossing the remaining three cards. If you know the probability of getting a payout from a given state (a particular row) in the table (which I assume you must or you wouldn't have been able to generate the table in the 1st place) you posted above, then you can calculate the row's EV (by multiplying the payout value by the associated probability). Then, if that EV exceeds 2 (the payout for two pair), you know that it is worth it to break up the two pair (I guess you have to make a small adjustment for the probability of turning the two pair into a full house by noting the frequency with which a two pair turns into a full house). There may even be some cases at the marginals of the table where it is worth it to break up a full house - you just have to calculate the EV of the vulturable state as described above and compare it to the payout of the pat hand.

Now if you don't have to max bet to get the 44/99 progressive to go up by one (by betting just one quarter instead of five), inducing vulturable states by throwing away 44/99-containing pat two-pair hands becomes even more with it. The edge decisions (to break up a pat two pair) will be those where you are just one tally away from being in a vulturable state, and by breaking up the pat hand, it transitions you from a non-vulturable state into a vulturable state (ie, to a row of your table).

I see your point TP, and you're 100% correct if the hands where we're dealt 2-pair involving 44 or 99 were the only hand we'd ever play at the machine. As an extreme example, If the 9s pool was at 499, so we knew for sure the next pair of 99s that lost would win the 500 credit pool, I would imagine the math would say to break up a full house of 99944. But given that in practice, we'll "never" be in a situation where we only have one hand to play, I'm pretty sure it's actually correct to just stand pat on the full house, and go for the pool on the next hand. I think any time we have a hand where the EV is greater than 1, then we should play it normally without respect to the pool. Maybe my thinking is wrong here.

Of course, at the other extreme, there are definitely changes that need to be made to the basic strategy. For example, take a bare 9. I'm obviously going to hold it over a bare 10. The question becomes how far up the ladder do I move a bare 9? It obviously depends on the size of the current pool, and quickly makes me want to cry in the corner when it comes time to think of an optimal strategy for the game. I suppose you could come close by developing a strategy for all the various pool states (all 50k of them, lol). But then you still need to factor in the value of adding a credit to the pool for future hands. Head asplode.

Note: The machine actually allows bets from 1-8 credits, but due to the payouts becoming better as the bet increases, there's probably little reason to ever vary from the 8-credit bet.

[mickeycrimm]

Jek, are you playing the Jungle Riches in South Dakota?

[jek187]

Jek, are you playing the Jungle Riches in South Dakota?

Nope. Should I be?

[tableplay]

we'll "never" be in a situation where we only have one hand to play,<snip>

Yes, that's absolutely correct. There is a probability of getting paid the progressive jackpot associated with each of the states listed in the table you posted on that hand if your draw is a losing pair of 4s or 9s. As shown in the attached screenshot, I've inserted some dummy probabilities to illustrate this visually. If you have a handle on these probabilities, you can calculate whether or not its worth breaking up a pat hand (like two pairs), by multiplying this probability by the progressive jackpot (for the row that reflects the current progressive state) and seeing if that value is more than the payout for the pat hand (which you will get paid with 100% certainty if you hold it).

[mickeycrimm]

Jek, are you playing the Jungle Riches in South Dakota?

Nope. Should I be?

I play them some when I'm passing though SD. The game is on the Ultra Power Stations. Four bet levels to check. The main qualifier is no more than two unbroken tiles in the 5th column. If only 3 unbroken tiles are left and they are all in the 5th column it's not a play. Sometimes you have to put money in the machine to check the tiles. If you just punch the game up then look at the top screen it will show you how many tiles left to be broken at each bet level. If the numbers are big you don't have to put money in the machine just keep walking. But if you see a low number then you have to put money in the machine to see how the unbroken tiles are positioned. If it's a play you spin it off. If it's not you just cash out.

Some people think I play this game to loose but I know full well I'm not. Especially in places like SD where they advertise their games 92 to 95%. My records through thousands of plays show a healthy profit although there is variance involved. I've taken a shitload of losing plays but my winning plays have out run them.

[jek187]

Jek, are you playing the Jungle Riches in South Dakota?

Nope. Should I be?

I play them some when I'm passing though SD. The game is on the Ultra Power Stations. Four bet levels to check. The main qualifier is no more than two unbroken tiles in the 5th column. If only 3 unbroken tiles are left and they are all in the 5th column it's not a play. Sometimes you have to put money in the machine to check the tiles. If you just punch the game up then look at the top screen it will show you how many tiles left to be broken at each bet level. If the numbers are big you don't have to put money in the machine just keep walking. But if you see a low number then you have to put money in the machine to see how the unbroken tiles are positioned. If it's a play you spin it off. If it's not you just cash out.

Some people think I play this game to loose but I know full well I'm not. Especially in places like SD where they advertise their games 92 to 95%. My records through thousands of plays show a healthy profit although there is variance involved. I've taken a shitload of losing plays but my winning plays have out run them.

I'll have to look into that. Thank you! Is it a traditional slot? Or is it on the video lottery machines? Despite going to about 20 video lottery joints yesterday, I didn't pay any attention to the slot-type games on the machines. Didn't know there was a potential play there.

Also, for anyone else curious, after cruising the 20 casinos yesterday, I found precisely one playable machine for the bonus poker, that I managed to lose $5.50 on, lol. Not an unexpected result, but my OCD is scratched. I'll just cruise the machines now when I'm out and about anyway.

[mickeycrimm]

The game is on the video lottery machines in the bars and slot joints in SD. And though they are called lottery terminals they are Class III.

[jek187]

Well, isn't that cool. Thank you very much for the tip. I'll let you know how I get on.