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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2017-18 season

  1. #201
    Brooklyn +2.5 (or moneyline +120 or better)
    Lakers under 214 -115 (213.5 ok)

    Looking at San Antonio under, but not posting yet
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #202
    I have Sac under 211

    Posted on my Pokerfraudalert site.

    Forgot to post here.

    Already started.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #203
    Lost my 3 picks over the past 2 days.

    Yesterday's pick was on pace to win, but a surprisingly close game blew it over by 6 points due to fouling.

    Probably won't have any picks today. Considering Phoenix +15.5, but maybe not.

    Looked at the earlier games and didn't like any of them. Considered New Orleans +3 but backed off. They were 15 points up, but they are melting down now, so they may not end up covering!

    Also considered Brooklyn, but good thing I stayed away because they are shitting the bed AGAIN. They are really terrible.

    Also considered NY +11.5 and that one will probably cover.

    Also considered San Antonio under, which hasn't started yet, but decided against it.

    So looks like despite all of these considerations, there's a good chance I'll be making no picks, which might be good, because I've been slumping big time recently.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #204
    Firing Phoenix +16.5 on Bovada

    16 ok
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #205
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
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    1,703
    RIP suns. ;(

  6. #206
    Miami under 204.5 (can get 205 at some books, and even 206 on some Bovada accounts)

    Starting in 30-35 min
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #207
    Minnesota +3.5

    Starting in 15-20 min
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #208
    Sacramento under 206
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #209
    Guys,

    I've hit a wall. I'm thinking it might soon be time to pack it in and try again in the first half of next NBA season. My methods which worked so well are now failing, even with some modifications.

    I'm also finding far fewer "value" under bets, and it doesn't help that a lot more games seem to be going over in general right now.

    I've lost 7 in a row -- my worst streak of the year.

    Here's one for 35 mins from now, but I don't blame you if you don't trust it:

    Denver +3 -115 (2.5 -110 ok, +125 or better moneyline ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #210
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    1,355
    yeah. sometimes you have to pack it in before the all star weekend, because the 2 days before the break you never know if the players minds are on the game or in the Bahamas.
    I would think the first thing to go would be defense.

    I just was listening to a guy from a betting website on a sports station. He wasnt selling anything...he was just a regular guest ...and he said he plugged in for the last 20 years, the wed and thur before the allstar break......and 61 percent of the time for those games, the home team covered.

    I am sitting out till the weekend as usual. good luck

  11. #211
    Honestly it's been a sharp's nightmare for the last 2 weeks or so because there's been a ton of games where either the very good team covered or the very bad team didn't cover. So the "obvious" public bet has been the right one.

    And then scoring has been up recently, so unders have often been losing.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #212
    NBA afternoon games:

    Charlotte -8 (Bovada is -7.5 -115)
    NY +3.5 (moneyline +140 or better ok)

    Maybe picks later the two late games
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #213
    Nice return from the break.

    Charlotte easily covers, Knicks win outright.

    I don't see anything worth betting in the remaining 2. I'll take my 2-0 and run.

    Record 156-127-4
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #214
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
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    1,355
    dan, I am not asking yo to disclose secrets...so if I am off base just tell me.

    When you say "the sharps" are betting teamX.....i may be assuming wrong..but are you looking at line movement close to gametime? And if so..if you see line movement toward a fave...like charlotte...how do you determin the squares arent moving the line vs the sharps.

    I understand the conceptof seeing the underdog move, and the squares never move the underdog to a lower price.

  15. #215
    No, I have some stats services which track the sharp betting. It's approximate, of course, but it gives me a good idea.

    With today's games I bet, the sharps liked NY but were neutral on Charlotte.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #216
    Houston under 225 (224/224.5 ok) - Gordon questionable but I think he won't play - starting 5pm PST

    Looking at Spurs side and under, but not firing yet
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #217
    Let's do it.

    Spurs under 212 (starting 6:10pm PST)

    Public is super heavy on the over.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #218
    This is what I got so far:

    Orlando under 216.5
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #219
    Another:

    Miami Over 197 (197.5 ok)

    Will post the later games (5:30pm PST and beyond) as we get closer.


    BTW my record is 157-128-4.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #220
    NBA early (10:10am PST game):

    Charlotte under 212 (211.5 ok)

    More later. Next 2 games start at 12:10pm PST.


    Went 1-1 yesterday. 158-129-4 is my record.

    Should've been 2-0 honestly. Orlando under was ahead the whole way, then fell apart at the end.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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