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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks

  1. #261
    For those who are curious:

    Record after March 9 was 173-147-6.

    Here's what happened since then (minus today's game, because that hasn't played yet):

    3/10:
    Charlotte under 218 - LOST
    3/11:
    Chicago under 213 - LOST
    Sac under 214 - LOST
    3/13:
    Knicks +1 - LOST
    3/14:
    Milwaukee -10.5 - LOST
    Golden State Under 223.5 - WON
    3/16:
    Sacramento +9 - WON
    3/17:
    Brooklyn -4 - WON
    Denver -6.5 - LOST
    Cleveland -7 - LOST
    Utah under 198 - LOST
    3/18:
    Clippers under 218 - LOST
    3/19:
    San Antonio over 201 - LOST
    3/23:
    Cleveland under 228 - WON
    Utah under 193.5 - LOST
    Miami over 217.5 - LOST
    Golden State under 220.5 - WON
    4/3
    Cleveland under 222 - WON

    Record from 3/10-4/3: 6-12

    Overall NBA record to date: 179-159-6 (52.96%)

    So that's a little above the 52.38% mark you need to have a profitable season, but not by much.

    The season was a tale of two parts:

    Through December 30: 98-62-2
    December 31-April 3: 81-97-4

    While this "break" is arbitrary (I purposely selected my peak and then started the second portion at my first real losing streak), it's clear that I was doing something very right in November and December, but stuck too long with an approach which wasn't cutting it in the middle and later portions of the season.

    I did have some bad luck in the second portion of the season, getting a lot of unders ruined by OT (more than expectation), and taking a number of bad beats on spread games.

    Also notable was HOW I was winning. In November and December, it was common for my picks to win by 20+ points (especially the unders). In 2018, my wins tended to be close. This is important because the blowout wins tend to indicate an excellent pick, while the close wins are more a function of luck.

    I may or may not pick the playoffs. I'm mostly done for the regular season, unless something jumps out at me.

    Next year I will take a different approach in January-April, and perhaps just shut it down if I start to slump, as it seems I'm just better at early season.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #262
    Won it barely, up to 180-159-6
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #263
    Last minute

    Celtics under 200
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #264
    Last minute:

    Golden State/San Antonio under 206 -115 (205 -110 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #265
    Philadelphia/Miami - Under 213
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #266
    Cleveland 1st quarter +0 -118

    Lebron is going to come out really strong here. Whether he will be enough to overcome the Celtics the entire game is questionable, but I think he plays his heart out in the 1st quarter.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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