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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2017-18 season

  1. #121
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Siri is awful at telling the score or who won a game. I don't remember the teams, but a while back I asked Siri who won in a game, and it was something like....
    You actually talk to Siri or is this a joke? I am only 42 but I certainly can't get into this talking to my phone and having it talk back to me. I find it easier to just push a button but I like pushing buttons. I thought I would like a house that was voice activated but now that they actually have it I find that I don't want anything to do with it.

  2. #122
    Not really feeling anything for the two early games.

    I'll be back a little later, closer to the night games, to post picks on the others.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #123
    Early evening games:

    Houston +3 -105
    Houston under 236.5 (236 ok) *** (see below)
    Milwaukee +7 (no Antetokounmpo, no Reddick)

    *** The Houston under pick is a "feel" pick, based upon my belief that totals like 236 are too damn high. This was pick was not made with my usual analytics. I have a belief (which is not yet verified in any way) that such a total is +EV to fire under in standard NBA games, simply due to the fact that it is very difficult to maintain such a high scoring pace for an entire 48 minute game. However, if you wish to stick to picks made through my usual strategy, you should skip this one. The Houston side was made through my usual strategies.

    Also, as the Bucks are missing Antetokounmpo today, while I like that side anyway (and my numbers led me to it), beware that this game is a bit unpredictable, so there's a reasonable chance that the Bucks will get blown out.

    Also, for whatever reason, the sharps are leaning AGAINST my Houston pick today, which is very rare. Almost all of my picks end up where the sharps are either for them or neutral towards them.

    So this is kind of a strange day so far.

    You've been warned.

    I might make more picks on the final games later.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #124
    Early evening games:

    Houston +3 -105
    Houston under 236.5 (236 ok) *** (see below)
    Milwaukee +7 (no Antetokounmpo, no Reddick)

    *** The Houston under pick is a "feel" pick, based upon my belief that totals like 236 are too damn high. This was pick was not made with my usual analytics. I have a belief (which is not yet verified in any way) that such a total is +EV to fire under in standard NBA games, simply due to the fact that it is very difficult to maintain such a high scoring pace for an entire 48 minute game. However, if you wish to stick to picks made through my usual strategy, you should skip this one. The Houston side was made through my usual strategies.

    Also, as the Bucks are missing Antetokounmpo today, while I like that side anyway (and my numbers led me to it), beware that this game is a bit unpredictable, so there's a reasonable chance that the Bucks will get blown out.

    Also, for whatever reason, the sharps are leaning AGAINST my Houston pick today, which is very rare. Almost all of my picks end up where the sharps are either for them or neutral towards them.

    So this is kind of a strange day so far.

    You've been warned.

    I might make more picks on the final games later.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #125
    Super last minute:

    Clippers under 213
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #126
    Posted Dallas +5.5 but decided to take it back. Not betting it.

    Was up for about 2 min. Hopefully none of you bet it.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #127
    True story with the Clippers... I totally forgot about it, then ran down to bet it in the final minutes. Wish I forgot. What a disaster that was.

    2-2 day thanks to Houston, and I move to 127-92-2.

    Oh, and regarding the last-minute Dallas pick I posted and retracted (which I don't think anyone bet, fortunately, and I didn't either), I made a critical error which, if anything, meant I should have picked the other way.

    But it was so last minute that I didn't have time to do anything but erase the post and not bet it myself.

    It's losing by 15 so looks like that was a good decision. If I had more time, I actually would have gone with Portland, but either way, whatever... it's a no-pick/no-bet.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #128
    Detroit over 209 (its -105 on Bovada right now)

    Might have one more on last game later.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #129
    Dan, a point of info based on the reality of actual betting

    when you bet....lets say 4 bets on a day and go 2-2 .....that is a loss assuming you bet the same units on each. However in reality do you treat each bet totally equal financially, or do you sometimes weigh more units on one over the other.
    I dont expect such detal when you post your picks....I was just wondering you philosophy

  10. #130
    Atlanta +2.5 (or moneyline)

    That's the first pick.

    Still analyzing the 5pm PST and later games (of which there are many)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #131
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    Dan, a point of info based on the reality of actual betting

    when you bet....lets say 4 bets on a day and go 2-2 .....that is a loss assuming you bet the same units on each. However in reality do you treat each bet totally equal financially, or do you sometimes weigh more units on one over the other.
    I dont expect such detal when you post your picks....I was just wondering you philosophy
    I almost always bet equally.

    You are correct that 2-2 is not an even day, and is a small loss due to the house vig.

    I do sometimes place moneyline bets on the small favorites instead of the spread, but I am posting spread bets here and counting the spread, not the moneyline, for my record.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #132
    understood....for accounting purposes here that the way to do it

  13. #133
    More:

    Memphis +3.5 (moneyline of +140 ok)
    Houston under 212.5

    Still may post more
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #134
    Portland +3 -105
    Portland under 210.5

    That's all. Only 5 picks.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #135
    thoughts on basketball since I started betting:

    playing is a lot more fun then watching
    takes like 30 min to watch the last 2 minutes of the game
    fouling being a strategy is stupid
    betting unders, even though it's more advantageous then the over takes years off my life

  16. #136
    then dont bet college BB, because with 18 second left and being down by 10, college teams will still foul..whereas if the pros are down by 7 with18 seconds left they will give up.

  17. #137
    4-0-1 day.

    Soooooo close to 5-0. Atlanta won EASILY, Houston under won EASILY, Memphis was looking bad for most of the game, but roared back in the 4th and won outright.

    Came down to the two Portland picks.

    Under was on pace to win the whole game, though it was possible to lose. Slow 4th made under a certainty unless OT came. Portland had a 95-90 lead late, but blew it, and fell down 102-99 with under 7 seconds left. Fortunately they only chose to make a 2-pointer, taking it to 102-101, lessening the OT possibility. Then the fouled Denver intentionally (obviously), and sadly Denver hit both FTs. That made it 104-101, Portland had to heave it and shoot with 1.8 seconds left, and they didn't come close, so that was the final, and the Portland +3 tied while the under covered.

    On a side note, I chose to make a full moneyline bet on Atlanta +131, and no spread bet. It won easily.

    I chose to make a half moneyline +140/half spread bet on Memphis. It had to come back and looked bad for much of the game, but it won outright.

    I chose to make a full spread bet on Portland, and no moneyline.

    All three were roughly the same spread, but Portland I had the least faith in winning outright, whereas Atlanta I had the most faith.

    I ended up being 100% correct on those assessments.

    Record now 131-93-3. This was just my 3rd tie in 227 picks.

    I'm 18-6-1 in the past 8 days (January 15-22). I've finally erased the 2-week slump from December 31-January 14. I was 15-25 in that stretch, following a 98-62-2 record through Dec 30. That 15-25 stretch was by far my worst slump of the season, where I had previously avoided protracted slumps. However, thanks to this recent run, I'm now 33-31-1 since December 31, which by itself isn't impressive, but was a great comeback given how things were going.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #138
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    then dont bet college BB, because with 18 second left and being down by 10, college teams will still foul..whereas if the pros are down by 7 with18 seconds left they will give up.
    I rarely watch games I bet, so luckily I don't worry about what happens during the game, just after. If I'm bored I'll fire up a stream. I do watch a lot of football though.

    Dan Druff, are you checking your lines against Pinnacle? I did that for some of yours and you were on the right side for whichever bets I saw you made.

  19. #139
    Originally Posted by DJatc View Post
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    then dont bet college BB, because with 18 second left and being down by 10, college teams will still foul..whereas if the pros are down by 7 with18 seconds left they will give up.
    I rarely watch games I bet, so luckily I don't worry about what happens during the game, just after. If I'm bored I'll fire up a stream. I do watch a lot of football though.

    Dan Druff, are you checking your lines against Pinnacle? I did that for some of yours and you were on the right side for whichever bets I saw you made.
    I have 3 sportsbooks where I bet. I always choose the best line, obviously.

    That's the line I will post, but I will note if it's better at the particular book I'm betting on, sometimes even stating that a slightly worse line is "ok".

    When handicapping, I look at a lot of books and see their activities with line movement and betting patterns.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #140
    Sacramento under 211.5 (211 ok)

    Starts in about 30 min

    More shortly
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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