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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks

  1. #241
    Screwed last night with the New Orleans pick. Total was 226 with 31 seconds left, and the game finished with 237, beating me by 1. Ugh.

    Nothing on the earlier games tonight.

    Later:

    New Orleans under 223.5

    May have 1 or 2 more as we get closer to 7pm PST.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #242
    San Antonio **FIRST HALF** +6.5 -115 (+6 -105 ok)

    Didn't like any of the other games today
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #243
    Okay, I got lazy with posting my record.

    Don't know why.

    But here it is:

    Through 2/25, I was 160-130-6.

    Here's the rest:

    2/26: 2-3

    2/27: 2-1

    2/28: 1-2 (OT fucked)

    3/1: 1-1 (OT fucked)

    3/2: 1-0

    3/3: 1-4

    3/4: 0-3

    3/5: 2-0

    3/6: 0-2

    3/7: 1-0

    3/8: 1-0

    So I'm 12-16 since then. Would be 14-14 if not for those two OT fiascos.

    On the small bright side, I've posted 3 winning days in the past 4.

    I have moderately adjusted my strategy again (for late-season), which has resulted in fewer picks. Notice I've only made 6 picks total over the past 4 days.

    This is my first full season of NBA betting with my new strategy, so I'm adjusting as I go along.

    I will pretty much be repeating my early season strategy next year, but will start to make adjustments quicker when it comes to midseason and late-season, as I think that strategy is no longer viable because a lot changes regarding the way lines are set and the way teams play.

    Going forward I also will be throwing in more 1H picks (which I really hadn't been doing), as I think there can be some value there when done selectively.

    It's a learning process.

    172-146-6 is my total record. I'm still hitting a 54.1% clip overall.

    Next year I am going to shoot for 57%.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #244
    Starting soon:

    Atlanta over 211 (211.5 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #245
    Atlanta got off to a bad first half, then had a chance (needed 32 points in final 7:28), then fell apart and lost by 12. To be honest, I was never really in the ballgame, though at that one point in 4Q it probably had about a 30% chance to win. It was a blowout game, so that was the problem regarding the 4th. Oh, and Atlanta absolutely couldn't shoot.

    Haven't run the numbers, but I'm noticing the tanking teams are not covering, which isn't surprising. This has been enough to push me off betting those tanking dogs, but I haven't gone against them very much either, which has been a mistake.

    Mad at myself for not going with the double pick of Washington and the under, as NO was missing Davis, and they're pretty much shit without him.

    Anyway...

    Last minute bet on Porland +0

    Curry out, Portland has 3 days rest, and GS played a tough one yesterday, and is on the road tonight.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #246
    1-1 yesterday

    Coming up in 20 min:

    Charlotte under 218

    Lots of players out: Booker, Warren, Zeller, and others
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #247
    Lost yesterday by a wide margin

    Chicago under 213

    Starts at 12:40 PST
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #248
    Here's one of my favorite type of unders recently... a Sac under:

    Sacramento under 214
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #249
    Took yesterday off after an 0-2 day on Sunday.

    Here's one for right now:

    Knicks +1 or moneyline
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #250
    So it seems like anti-tank picks really are the way to go.

    While it took some 4th quarter heroics, tankers Atlanta and Brooklyn failed to cover. Orlando and Phoenix failed to cover by a wide margin.

    The only tanker to cover was Chicago, and they barely did so.

    Funny thing was that last night I considered doing an entire slate of anti-tanker picks (those 4 above) minus Chicago (since the Clippers aren't very good, and were on the road), and also considered the Denver/Lakers under.

    Instead I just went with the Knicks +1, who decided to fall apart in the 2nd half and lose by 13.

    The tanking is so bad that even Ken Scalir told me on the phone last night that he's aware of it. And Ken hates sports.

    It might be wise to just blind-fire the spread against the true tanking teams the rest of the way, and I think that will end up +EV (just has to win 52.38% of the time).

    That seems to be the proper late season strategy. Over/unders have gotten very tough to handicap at this stage of the season.

    Today: Milwaukee -10.5

    Orlando is a complete disaster, and Gordon is out with a concussion.

    Might post more later.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #251
    Starting soon: Sacramento +9 (moneyline +350 ok)

    Golden State has no Curry, no Thompson, no Durant

    I didn't post a last minute pick I made the other day which won by 0.5 (Golden State under 223.5). Posted it on my PokerFraudAlert site.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #252
    Anti-tank day

    Brooklyn -4 (yes, you read that right) -- Dallas has no Barnes or Noel

    Denver -6.5

    Cleveland -7

    I feel like a fish betting favorites, but seriously that seems to be the right play these days.

    Also, the Jazz have allowed very few points lately

    Allowed past 6 games: 80, 84, 78, 99, 79, 88

    Seriously.

    Playing the awful Kings, so obv I'm going under.

    Utah under 198 (197.5 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #253
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    4,695
    What the hell? The Utah game had 12 points in the last minute or something like that? That's a rough one.

  14. #254
    Last minute

    Clippers under 218
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #255
    Clippers over lost by a good margin despite a great 1Q yesterday.

    The stats service I use provides picks (I don't subscribe to them, but I see them after-the-fact), and that was also their one pick yesterday.

    So we were both fooled.

    Today here's an over:

    San Antonio Over 201 (201.5 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #256
    Cleveland under 228
    Utah under 193.5
    Miami over 217.5
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #257
    Degen firing on Golden State under 220.5 at last minute

    1-2 so far
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #258
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    424
    Refs or their handlers must have had some big money on the Bucks. Been awhile since I've seen a game this gaffed (Bucks v. Warriors in Oaktown w/ 3 quarters played).

  19. #259
    Cleveland under 222
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #260
    Spurs/Warriors - Under 206
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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