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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2017-18 season

  1. #1
    This year I decided to change my entire approach to NBA betting.

    Prior to this NBA season, I was simply like most of the other losing recreational sports bettors -- believing I had a "feel" for who would win, and betting accordingly.

    Not surprisingly, it didn't go well.

    I even tried hafltime betting strategies, and while initially successful, those also failed to produce consistent winning, so I backed off of that.

    So finally, for the 2017-18 NBA season, I decided to tackle this problem using analytics and betting patterns. This does sometimes result in getting an inferior line (as often I bet late, after the action has already moved the line), but I also have a much clearer view of the game about to be played, the sharp/square action, and the sportsbook reaction to the sharp/square betting.

    I mostly do unders and home underdogs, though sometimes I will also do others. (Yesterday, for example, I went over on Orlando, which easily won.)

    So far, my record is a very nice 71-46-2, which is over 60%.

    However, some of this was due to a super-hot pre-Thanksgiving start, where I went a staggering 44-20-1. So I'm only 27-26-1 in my last 54 picks, which may or may not mean anything. In my own defense, I will state that I knew there was no way I could maintain a pace like 44-20, and I also have avoided any kind of real losing streak this season. In fact, it has been very rare that I post 2-4 picks and don't win at least one. Most losing days have been the 0-1 or 1-2 variety.

    I post these picks on my other forum (pokerfraudalert.com). Let me know if you would like to see them, and I will link you to that thread.

    I will often post them shortly before game time, but usually try to get them up at least 30 minutes before the game starts. Typically I will post the picks at around 3:30pm PST, but not always.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    This year I decided to change my entire approach to NBA betting.

    Prior to this NBA season, I was simply like most of the other losing recreational sports bettors -- believing I had a "feel" for who would win, and betting accordingly.

    Not surprisingly, it didn't go well.

    I even tried hafltime betting strategies, and while initially successful, those also failed to produce consistent winning, so I backed off of that.

    So finally, for the 2017-18 NBA season, I decided to tackle this problem using analytics and betting patterns. This does sometimes result in getting an inferior line (as often I bet late, after the action has already moved the line), but I also have a much clearer view of the game about to be played, the sharp/square action, and the sportsbook reaction to the sharp/square betting.

    I mostly do unders and home underdogs, though sometimes I will also do others. (Yesterday, for example, I went over on Orlando, which easily won.)

    So far, my record is a very nice 71-46-2, which is over 60%.

    However, some of this was due to a super-hot pre-Thanksgiving start, where I went a staggering 44-20-1. So I'm only 27-26-1 in my last 54 picks, which may or may not mean anything. In my own defense, I will state that I knew there was no way I could maintain a pace like 44-20, and I also have avoided any kind of real losing streak this season. In fact, it has been very rare that I post 2-4 picks and don't win at least one. Most losing days have been the 0-1 or 1-2 variety.

    I post these picks on my other forum (pokerfraudalert.com). Let me know if you would like to see them, and I will link you to that thread.

    I will often post them shortly before game time, but usually try to get them up at least 30 minutes before the game starts. Typically I will post the picks at around 3:30pm PST, but not always.
    I have a Bovada account with $1500 sitting there doing nothing. I don't bet big amounts but sure, I'd like to follow your betting line. I'd like to follow redietz betting line next year too if he ever gives up any picks.
    "There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism--by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." Ayn Rand

  3. #3
    Maybe if I remember, I will post the picks in this thread, too.

    As I said, my hot streak was pre-Thanksgiving (44-20-1), and I've only been 27-26-1 since, so don't expect miracles.

    But I'll try to remember to also post them here. Check around 3:30pm-4pm PST.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    This year I decided to change my entire approach to NBA betting.

    Prior to this NBA season, I was simply like most of the other losing recreational sports bettors -- believing I had a "feel" for who would win, and betting accordingly.

    Not surprisingly, it didn't go well.

    I even tried hafltime betting strategies, and while initially successful, those also failed to produce consistent winning, so I backed off of that.

    So finally, for the 2017-18 NBA season, I decided to tackle this problem using analytics and betting patterns. This does sometimes result in getting an inferior line (as often I bet late, after the action has already moved the line), but I also have a much clearer view of the game about to be played, the sharp/square action, and the sportsbook reaction to the sharp/square betting.

    I mostly do unders and home underdogs, though sometimes I will also do others. (Yesterday, for example, I went over on Orlando, which easily won.)

    So far, my record is a very nice 71-46-2, which is over 60%.

    However, some of this was due to a super-hot pre-Thanksgiving start, where I went a staggering 44-20-1. So I'm only 27-26-1 in my last 54 picks, which may or may not mean anything. In my own defense, I will state that I knew there was no way I could maintain a pace like 44-20, and I also have avoided any kind of real losing streak this season. In fact, it has been very rare that I post 2-4 picks and don't win at least one. Most losing days have been the 0-1 or 1-2 variety.

    I post these picks on my other forum (pokerfraudalert.com). Let me know if you would like to see them, and I will link you to that thread.

    I will often post them shortly before game time, but usually try to get them up at least 30 minutes before the game starts. Typically I will post the picks at around 3:30pm PST, but not always.

    This is a top notch performance. There are a handful of college basketball savants who win convincingly most seasons, but to my knowledge there are no real NBA savants who churn out good performances the majority of the time. This has been an excellent performance, well beyond good or what anyone would reasonably wish for -- high volume and high profit. Congratulations to you, and I'd keep firing until and unless it takes a major stale turn. Really a super record.

  5. #5
    Hopefully I don't jinx it by starting to post here. The rest of the picks were posted on my pokerfraudalert site, so I'm not lying about the record!

    Charlotte -8 (Porzingis out)
    Atlanta +0 -120 (up to -1.5 -110 ok) (Winslow, Dragic, Whiteside out)
    Denver under 211 -115 (210.5 -110 ok)
    Lakers +5.5
    Lakers Under 218 (Curry out, Green out)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #6
    Also FYI, while my bets often at least somewhat mirror the action taken by the sharps, tonight is unusual in that 4 of the 5 are not bet heavily by the sharps, and only 1 (Lakers +5.5) is liked by the sharps.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Hopefully I don't jinx it by starting to post here.
    Funny, I was thinking this earlier today. As an AP, we generally don't believe in things like "jinxs", but I honestly though I wonder if Dan Just "jinxed" himself.....maybe I should bet the other way. (I didn't)

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Hopefully I don't jinx it by starting to post here. The rest of the picks were posted on my pokerfraudalert site, so I'm not lying about the record!

    Charlotte -8 (Porzingis out)
    Atlanta +0 -120 (up to -1.5 -110 ok) (Winslow, Dragic, Whiteside out)
    Denver under 211 -115 (210.5 -110 ok)
    Lakers +5.5
    Lakers Under 218 (Curry out, Green out)
    Lost one (1) Dan. Boy you really suck!

    AND it should be mentioned that the one game you lost was a game you bet the under and the game went over.....in overtime. Had the game ended in regulation, you would have been a respectable 5-0. Well done sir. I predict tomorrow, you will have some people waiting for your picks.

  9. #9
    Yeah I deserved 5-0 on this one. I've been dogged by OT for the past week. Even my Denver under came 2 seconds away from an OT, but fortunately Westbrook drew a clever foul.

    2/2 under picks today were tied with 2 seconds left. Unlucky! Fortunately the Denver one was avoided. Didn't get quite so lucky with the Lakers.

    Record now 75-47-2 after a 4-1 day.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Even my Denver under came 2 seconds away from an OT, but fortunately Westbrook drew a clever foul.
    I saw that. Again, congrats.

    Doesn't it seem like 'Totals' should be for just regulation? lol. You know what the worst is? College football. I've had games that I bet the under, and as the game was going along it was way under and then ends up being ties like 13-13. Three overtimes and 30-some points later, you lose your bet. That college overtime, starting at the 25 yard line doesn't seem right.

    Edit: Actually, now that I think about it, I had a game like I just mentioned that I won this year in college football.. I bet the over, game was way way under, ended tie 20 points below the number. Went over in the second overtime. I guess it all evens out.

  11. #11
    Doesn't even out for me because I mostly bet unders. Those tend to be the more exploitable lines, because books will often set a line too high, knowing they will get tons of action on the over anyway. The public loves overs, for the most part, because it feels weird to root for less scoring. That's not to say that blindly firing on unders is correct, but it's a lot easier to find lines where the under is likely to hit than where you can reliably say that about the over.

    I have considered starting to hedge my under bets with small OT bets, but in the long run the juice will hurt me, so I hate doing that. But I'm getting tired of these great under picks getting ruined or near-ruined by OT.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #12
    I had a long drive yesterday and forgot to check for picks. I'm about to take a week off for Christmas so will try to keep up.
    "There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism--by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." Ayn Rand

  13. #13
    NBA

    3 games, 3 unders:

    Washington Under 218 (217 ok)
    Sac Under 206.5 (206 ok)
    Cleveland Under 216 -115 (down to 215 -110 ok)

    Washington and Sac starting at 4pm PST
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #14
    Went 1-2 above.

    Record is now 76-49-2.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #15
    NBA:

    Boston Under 200 (199.5 ok)
    OKC -7.5 (8 ok, but -7.5 still exists on Bovada)
    OKC Under 197.5 (197 ok)

    May post more shortly.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #16
    Also:

    Memphis +10
    Detroit Over 197 -115 (197.5 -110 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #17
    Question for Dan Druff: Did you start making these picks at the beginning of the season or at some point into the season?

    The reason I ask is at 76-49-2 if you started at the beginning of the season that is about 2.5 picks per day. In the short 3 days here, you seem to be at higher pace than that, with 5 picks Monday, 3 Tuesday and 5 today. Tuesday only had 3 NBA games and you picked them all. I am just wondering if after some success you are picking more games than earlier on?

  18. #18
    Started a little bit into the season. I forget the date.

    13 picks in 3 days is actually uncommon for me.

    Usually I make about 2 picks per day on average.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #19
    I was flying today. Spending a week with the folks for Christmas. The jerkwad airline wanted $10 for internet for a two hour flight. Ripoff! Got back on the net to late to bet Boston but got down on the rest. My account was at $1562 so just bet $15 per. Looking up scores tonight will give me something to do. It gets dark at 3:30 PM this time of year.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 12-20-2017 at 05:04 PM.
    "There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism--by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." Ayn Rand

  20. #20
    4-0 start to the day.

    First three won very easily (Boston and both OKC picks), and the Detroit over was in great shape at halftime (thanks to 71 points in the 2nd quarter), but a slow 3rd and early 4th, actually made it a sweat. Still won by 6.

    Now I just need Memphis to cover.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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