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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2017-18 season

  1. #21
    Memphis couldn't quite do it. Covering until the final 4:30, then they fell behind more than 10, and never recovered. Game finished at a 13-point margin, 3 off of my line.

    Second 4-1 day in my last 3 days, moving my overall record to 80-50-2, and 9-4 in the picks I've posted here.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #22
    This is one damn impressive run!!! And I have always considered the NBA un-bettable.

  3. #23
    Dan
    I am a weekly sports bettor in reno. I only bet in brick and mortor..mostly william hill.

    My question to you is one of method. When you are picking totals in basketball.....does the amount of the total compared to other games matter. For instance....lets say you liked 2 games....but only wanted to pick one. You thought unders on both were a good bet. But one total was 223 and the other total was 190. Maybe a warriors game and a memphis game. In the 190 game, a brief unexpected excessive scoring stretch of 3 min can kill you. Whereas a similar 3 minute stretch in the 223 game,,,,is insignificant. Each point carries more weight in the 190 game.

    Also in hockey, and I dont know how long this will last.....from the beginning it was thought that the vegas team would have a real advantage at home...as other teams come in and take advantage of the night life. And its true. Although the NHL has one of the lowest home court/ice advantages......vegas is a different team onthe road. and at home. I think only losing 2 games so far. Over the previous 2 years, the warriors have lost to a vastly inferior lakers team in LA most likely for the same reasons. Back then they were fully staffed...and still lost badly. This year they avoided that trap. I think vegas remains a viable bet going forward until teams coming into town wise up.

  4. #24
    Memphis -3.5 (you don't know how much it pains me to pick Memphis back-to-back on the road as a favorite)

    Utah +3 -115 (+2.5 -110 ok)

    Games don't start til 6pm and 7:30pm PST respectively, so you have time, but these lines are changing quickly.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    Dan
    I am a weekly sports bettor in reno. I only bet in brick and mortor..mostly william hill.

    My question to you is one of method. When you are picking totals in basketball.....does the amount of the total compared to other games matter. For instance....lets say you liked 2 games....but only wanted to pick one. You thought unders on both were a good bet. But one total was 223 and the other total was 190. Maybe a warriors game and a memphis game. In the 190 game, a brief unexpected excessive scoring stretch of 3 min can kill you. Whereas a similar 3 minute stretch in the 223 game,,,,is insignificant. Each point carries more weight in the 190 game.

    Also in hockey, and I dont know how long this will last.....from the beginning it was thought that the vegas team would have a real advantage at home...as other teams come in and take advantage of the night life. And its true. Although the NHL has one of the lowest home court/ice advantages......vegas is a different team onthe road. and at home. I think only losing 2 games so far. Over the previous 2 years, the warriors have lost to a vastly inferior lakers team in LA most likely for the same reasons. Back then they were fully staffed...and still lost badly. This year they avoided that trap. I think vegas remains a viable bet going forward until teams coming into town wise up.
    I don't ever lay off games because I "only want to pick one". I pick however many I think are +EV selections. Sometimes it's a lot, sometimes it's just 1 or 2, sometimes it's none.

    In fact, today was going to be none until I got to analyzing the two late games.

    You are correct that 190 type totals can be difficult to bet under, just as 228 type totals tend to be difficult to bet over. That's not to say it's always correct to oppose them, or that you should never bet them, but the chance of finding a soft line under 190 or over 228 is much lower. These totals are to such extremes because the public already knows both teams are low/high scoring, and are expected to hammer the betting that way. Now, often there's good reason for it -- meaning the public isn't aways necessarily wrong in those cases. But it isn't too common to see a 190 line where I actually expect the total to be 180, or a 228 where I expect it to be 238. I find the less extreme totals are often the lines most misset -- often intentionally because the lines are sometimes set according to the expected public betting, rather than the actual expected game total. For example, if books believe a game will have 202 points, but know that 70% of the action will still come in over at 208, they may still set it at 208 or higher. So when that's happening, the under is clearly the right play. However, "contrarian" betting -- simply firing against the public -- is not likely to be successful long term. The trick is understanding where the line is intentionally misset, and where the public is simply backing the correct betting side.

    I am not a hockey bettor, so I can't answer that question.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #26
    I also deleted a few messages in this thread involving questions regarding LarryS's motivation for registering here.

    Larry is welcome to post on this site, and as long as he behaves respectfully, he can stay. I don't care how he's behaved on other forums.

    However, if Larry or other new members transition to trolling, they will be quickly removed. I have much lower of a tolerance for trolling on this site recently, and am aiming to clean out the BS from this place.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #27
    I dont have real facts, just experience, but in totals I find that 199 is many times the casinos begging the public to bet over. And in college 129 is a number where the casino feels most will bet over....its enticing. I dont use that situation as an automatic betting opportunity..but I give those an extra look.

    for example in college 129 totals, the casino might feel that the under might be around 125.....but only a small amount of bets would be for under.....so they raise it to 129....and thats still a low number in the average bettors mind...they overwhelmingly bet over and with the new jacked up total they have a much lesser chance of winning the over. I always take a second look at college games under 130.

  8. #28
    I wouldn't get too hung up on numbers.

    The important thing to look for is the situation where the sportsbook is forcing a bad line on the public, expecting most of them to bet it anyway.

    For example, let's say Team A is a high-scoring team and Team B is an average-scoring team. So the typical public bettor would expect total like 215 nowadays. But let's say that certain matchup or gaming conditions would actually result in lower scoring, but most casual bettors don't and can't realize this. So the books are actually expecting a total like 204, set the line at 210, and those in the public expecting 215 will think, "Wow, 210 is a great deal! With these two teams, it's definitely going over!", and they bet over.

    That's the optimal situation for the sportsbook, because they're getting disproportionate action on the "bad" side of the line which is substantially off, and they will make a killing in the long run in such a situation.

    The opportunity here is for those who can recognize this situation and go the other way.

    This recognition comes from a variety of factors, and there's not just a simple "system" one can use.

    Too many bettors also think that "public" is a dirty word, and that simply opposing the public will produce winning results. That's also false.

    Anyway, this is how you can (potentially) win in the NBA. If you just try to bet by feel or basketball knowledge, you will not win.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I have much lower of a tolerance for trolling on this site recently, and am aiming to clean out the BS from this place.
    A very welcome development.

  10. #30
    I agree....and thats what makes college so difficult because most people dont even know the names of the players let alone if there is going to be a matchup imbalance for example where the speed of one team could overwhelm the other. Or if the bench of one team is much better than the other. With the pros that is easier.

    I agreed with your memphis pick where 5 out of 8 of GSW were out. And that was an under game in my mind. Yet GSW covered in a game where they gave up 11 turnover points in the first quarter alone.

    And to your point, yes I agree that the "man" sometimes sets totals off kilter based on the betting public predicted actions.....thats exactly what I was talking about in the college games with a total of 129. I sometimes seek out those low total to look at(not automatically bet).....because the man knows whether the total is 125 or 129...the public is going to bet over. So a 125 expected total may indeed turn into 129 because the "man: feels the majority will bet over....and why risk losing when they can jack it up to 129 and still have the psychology of being under 130 push people to bet over. For me that is a good place to start to find a few gems of an inflated over number based on the psychology of being under 130. Its not always a good value...but I do look there for value.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    This is one damn impressive run!!! And I have always considered the NBA un-bettable.
    Same here, at least regarding sides. Totals looked to have some weaknesses at times, but the rules and personnel change so much year to year, that it looks like a buzzing madhouse to me. Well done, Dan. Spectacular.

  12. #32
    Well, what I can I do?

    Memphis missed their final 1000000000000000000000 shots and lost 97-95.

    Terrible, terrible team.

    They've stung me two days in a row now, and I don't think I've won a single game backing them. They have a horrendous record ATS.

    Go Utah!
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Terrible, terrible team.

    They've stung me two days in a row now, and I don't think I've won a single game backing them. They have a horrendous record ATS.
    Dan, you have a good streak going and a great record and I don't want to kick a man while he is (temporarily) down...BUT wouldn't the time to have taken note of this have been yesterday afternoon about 3:30?

  14. #34
    Split today's picks, going 1-1.

    Record now 81-51-2.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Well, what I can I do?

    Memphis missed their final 1000000000000000000000 shots and lost 97-95.

    Terrible, terrible team.

    They've stung me two days in a row now, and I don't think I've won a single game backing them. They have a horrendous record ATS.

    Go Utah!
    Dan, I don't think Fizzdale's firing is doing any favors for Memphis' morale - maybe Gasol's, but it's a team sport. At 7-12, when Fizzdale was fired (a guy that took them to the playoffs the previous 7 seasons IIRC), they actually had a chance to right the ship. At 9-23, not so much.

  16. #36
    Dallas -1.5

    Might post more later
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #37
    Last minute NBA pick:

    Denver Under 203
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #38
    Semi-last-minute NBA pick:

    Lakers under 217 -115 (216.5/216 -110 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #39
    I should probably mention that I've been better at totals than sides.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #40
    Toronto Under 219

    Starts in 15 min

    OTB on some books due to Embiid, but 5Dimes still has it (in fact, it went up to 219.5 moments after I placed my bet... ugh)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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