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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2017-18 season

  1. #61
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Indiana +2.5 (certain Bovada accounts can get +3 -115)
    Dallas Over 212.5 (212 -115 on Bovada right now if you want it)
    Sacramento -3 -105 (-110 ok)
    Charlotte +10 -115 (+9.5 -110 ok)
    Lakers Over 216 -115 (216.5 -110 ok)
    Good call on the Lakers over...I thought that total was way too high...they haven`t been scoring as much with Ball out...good thing they`re allowing more lol

  2. #62
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Indiana +2.5 (certain Bovada accounts can get +3 -115)
    Dallas Over 212.5 (212 -115 on Bovada right now if you want it)
    Sacramento -3 -105 (-110 ok)
    Charlotte +10 -115 (+9.5 -110 ok)
    Lakers Over 216 -115 (216.5 -110 ok)
    Nice call on the Charlotte game - outright winner, no spread required. Omri Casspi, was the difference maker - he twisted his ankle the game before and was unavailable for the Charlotte game. He's been a huge factor off the bench for the Warriors - quite a find.
    Last edited by tableplay; 12-30-2017 at 07:41 PM.

  3. #63
    Philly under 214

    Looking at it all day, decided to fire
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #64
    3-0 yesterday taking me to 98-62-2

    Starting in 30 min:


    NBA
    Washington -8 -105 (-110 ok)
    Washington Under 212 -105 (-110 ok)

    More later
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #65
    You guys missed me going 0-4 and then 1-2. (I only posted 2 of the losers above).

    So my record is 99-68-2.

    Sacramento under 205 (204.5 -110 ok)

    That's it for today.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #66
    honest man

    impressive so far still

    but I am not jumping on the Dan wagon....just for the reason what happened this weekend.

    like a craps table...it can turn on a dime

  7. #67
    Detroit +2 or +115 money line
    Minnesota under 212.5 (212 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #68
    someone accepted a bet on memphis today?

  9. #69
    Split my two bets. Minnesota under won easily, Detroit was close until the final minutes, then fell apart.

    Record now 100-70-2.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #70
    In case you're wondering, I did not pick anything on January 4. There were only 2 games, and I did not have any lean on either the sides or the totals.

    Hopefully the day off will allow me to turn around my recent 2-8 slump, which is the worst 10-game slump I've had this season. I did have at least one encouraging result, which was winning that Minnesota under by a wide margin on Wednesday, so hopefully that's a sign that I'm turning things around. The other pick, on Detroit, could have gone either way, as it was tied with just a few minutes left.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #71
    Damn. Even if you change the "probability of success on a single trial" to 51% or 52%, it's still damn impressive.

    I haven't been looking at this thread, but someone the other day told me I should take a look.


    Idk what the hell it is you're doing, but keep it up. You're at a 58% win rate (100/170) right now, which is about right on par as what you quoted your win rate was earlier in the season, at 60%.

  12. #72
    Yo btw I just signed up on PFA as "RS_". Can you activate my account? And if possible, remove the _ from my username? Gotta git to postin'.

  13. #73
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Record now 100-70-2.
    Just curious if you have a break down of the side bets and the over/under bets. Just speculating but it seems like you may be doing better with the under/over bets (mostly under). It might be that the real winning percentage is on those over/under bets and the side bets are just 50/50 ish.

  14. #74
    Here we go again... after a day of zero picks.

    Minnesota +3.5 -115 (Bovada -- -3 -110 ok, moneyline of +132 or better ok)
    Dallas under 210.5
    Memphis under 205.5 (205 ok)
    Memphis +5 -115 (4.5 - 110 ok, moneyline +165 or better ok)

    The sharps APPROVE of all 4 plays (though I decided upon them before seeing what the sharps liked).

    KewlJ, I have not broken these down, and I don't have a list of all my past bets, except as listed in separate posts on forums. So it's a pain in the ass to analyze.

    From my own personal observation, yes, my totals seem to be doing better.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #75
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    KewlJ, I have not broken these down, and I don't have a list of all my past bets, except as listed in separate posts on forums. So it's a pain in the ass to analyze.

    From my own personal observation, yes, my totals seem to be doing better.
    Ok so, I took a look. I can't promise I didn't miss any picks as there was a lot to scroll through on that thread, but I think this is pretty accurate. It at least gives a pretty good indication of a breakdown. I also didn't include any in-game wagers, which you did a couple of early in the year.

    I get 91 total picks which is close to 50% of all picks. Over under picks are 56-35. So of your roughly +30 win vs losses, 70% or 21 are via totals.

    Sort of what we were suspecting.

    However, on Dec 11 you were 37-17 on Total's picks and have cooler down considerably, only 19-18 since. Something worth watching.

    One final note. On Overs you are a healthy 9-4. You don't pick them often, but are strong when you do.

    Oh and one other thing: When betting total unders, one thing that can always bite you in the ass, is the possibility of overtime. Seems like you have been bitten a few times recently. I have no data on whether that is statistically abnormal, though.

    Oh and having looked through THAT thread a question? What is with all the gay signage in your posts?

  16. #76
    Pulled off a lucky 2-2 in the Memphis game. For much of the game, both of those were losing, which would have sent me to 0-4.

    The 4th barely had any scoring, and a last-minute 3 changed a tie to a win on the side.

    KewlJ, thanks for looking up those picks. Yes, seems like my totals have been better. I also have noticed that my overs do well typically when I pick them, but it's a lot harder to find a value over.

    RS_, I validated you on PFA.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #77
    One of these already started (as I posted it like 3 minutes before gametime on PokerFraudAlert), but here are 3 picks:

    Brooklyn +3.5 -115 (moneyline +140 is actually what I bet)
    Houston under 211.5
    Cleveland under 221.5
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #78
    Also

    Milwaukee under 214

    That's it.

    GL to me and whoever else follows
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #79
    I hope all of them win....at least for my sake.

  20. #80
    I honestly feel kinda bad when people bet my picks and they lose.

    Makes me a little nervous now because I've been so cold in the past week.

    The funny thing is that fairly few people were betting my picks when I was winning 75% of what I was posting, and those winners were often blowing out the line by 20+ points.

    Now I'm 4-10 in the last 14, with three of those wins being close, and people are following.

    LOL

    Did you get in the Brooklyn one? I'm guessing no.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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