Question for your Christmas Dinner Guests

[coach belly]

1. Two dice are in a cup or other device, shaken and in the cup placed on the table.
2. A witness will peek. If a 2 is shown the bet is on.
3. If a 2 is not shown, there is no betting.
4. In both cases, the cup will be removed and the dice can be viewed. This will prevent the original dice from showing 2-2 and the witness lying.
5. With one deuce the bet is on (#2) and if there is not a second deuce the "player" will lose their bet.
6. With one deuce the bet is on (#2) and if there is a second deuce the "bank" will pay either 9-to-1 or 9-for-1 (the Wiz doesn't care.)

So why didn't you take this bet Alan?

In the bet outlined above, the target number is 2.

Does it have to be 2, or can it be any number 1-6?

Also, the bet above is for one roll.

If there are to be more than one roll, and more than one bet, can the target number be changed for each roll?

I'm asking because if the target number is always 2, then there could be many rolls with no betting
before a 2 is shown.

If the target number can change with each roll, then every roll can result in a payout.

[Alan Mendelson]

Coach the answers are yes and yes.

In my case (and this will answer eddie) the Wizard and I could not find a mutual time. The stakes in our bet was lunch. We were supposed to meet at a craps table at Caesars.

I probably would have lost because I still had to fight 1/6 odds.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan initially liked the bet but later, forgetting he had written about playing poker several times, begged off saying he didnt gamble with individuals. Shack talked him into playing for lunch. The challenge was very convenient for both parties as Shack lived in Vegas and Alan visited Vegas frequently. But Alan never showed. I'm sure Shack is still willing but I don't think Alan is. He's afraid of what the outcome will be.

Not true. The weekends I was in Vegas Shack didn't want to travel to the Strip to play craps at Caesars in part because they were holiday weekends. I offered to buy lunch as the bet.

I also conceded I'd probably lose because I still had to fight 1/6 odds.

[coach belly]

Coach the answers are yes and yes.

Thanks, but I'm wondering if eddie agrees with you.

[Bill Yung]

I probably would have lost because I still had to fight 1/6 odds.

Oh, I get it now. When you lose a bad bet that only you think is a good bet, then luck is conspiring against you. So you fabricate 18 yo's to show what a naughty craps table. Some people can't lose.

[a2a3dseddie]

Rob I am 1000% honest here. I haven't got a clue as to what you're saying. So let me be point blank with some questions:

1. If wo dice are rolled at the same time and one die shows a 2 do you think the chance that the second die rolled at the same time is 1/6 for also showing needa 2 ?

2. If you said "yes" to question #1 why won't you accept the wager?

And leave out all of your criticism about foreigners, WOV, the Wizard, the WOV forum members, Obama, and anybody else. Answer the two questions.

No and I never have, not under that premise, which is the same way wizard interpreted the problem and not my interpretation of it. You need to understand that if one die is a 2, it's not a function of simply how many faces that 2nd die has. They work TOGETHER to form one of the possible 11 combinations remaining where a 2 is on at least one of the dice. Arci laid them out for you. I don't know how else better to show it to you.

One of the last posts from Rob before Alan banned him for not agreeing with him.

[a2a3dseddie]

Alan initially liked the bet but later, forgetting he had written about playing poker several times, begged off saying he didnt gamble with individuals. Shack talked him into playing for lunch. The challenge was very convenient for both parties as Shack lived in Vegas and Alan visited Vegas frequently. But Alan never showed. I'm sure Shack is still willing but I don't think Alan is. He's afraid of what the outcome will be.

Not true. The weekends I was in Vegas Shack didn't want to travel to the Strip to play craps at Caesars in part because they were holiday weekends. I offered to buy lunch as the bet.

I also conceded I'd probably lose because I still had to fight 1/6 odds.

So, you'll make high house edge bets like The Fire Bet, or the Small, Tall, All but you won't take a 9-1 payout on what you think is a 6-1 situation? Riiiiiiight......

If your so confident, take the 8:1 bet for $100 per roll. Win $800 when 2-2 shows and lose $100 when 2-1, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5 or 2-6 shows. Guarantee you'll go broke.

I'll take this bet for one roll. I think money well spent if I lose. How many rolls can I bet on?

Coach, you would go broke with this.

When rolling two dice simultaneously, 2-2 shows up 1/36 times.
There are 11 combinations showing at least one 2, and only one combination that shows 2-2. So you are facing 10 losing decisions for each winning decision.

Instead, ask jbjb if he would accept this bet:

Set a die on the number 2 and roll a second die. If the second die also shows a 2 you will get paid $800. If the second die shows any other number you will pay him $100.

Update: I just rolled a single die ten times: I got two 2s for a win of $1600. I got other numbers on the 8 other rolls for a loss of $800. Net win: $800.

"Set a die on the number 2 and roll a second die"

You think that's the same as the original question?

Face it Alan, you were warning coach belly because you recognise it as a bad bet. Now you are saying what? You won't bet friends for money? Because you wouldn't leave the Strip? You were afraid coach belly would go broke getting 9-1 on what you believe is a 6-1 proposition?

[a2a3dseddie]

You really amaze me. I told you before the spinning die was a way to explain that one die has been decided and one die is left to be decided.

And so it is with the dice under the cup with the peeker seeing one die.

When you have a spinner on the craps table the answer is 1/6 and it doesn't matter which of the two dice it is.

When the peeker sees one die the other die is 1/6 and it doesn't matter which die it is.

What's even more amazing is this belief that there are 11 possible answers for a die with six sides. You can only get 11 by changing the die with a two.

What a strange game that is. Patent it and sell it. Call it mystery craps. Or Wild Craps. You might have a winner.

Where in the question does it say one die is left to be decided, or that the peeker only sees 1 die?

Alan, you only get your 6 possible answers by rotating your magical spinning die. If you are allowed to rotate your spinner, why aren't we allowed to set the spinner as the 2 and rotate the other die instead?

[a2a3dseddie]

Yes either dice or both dice could be a two BUT THAT IS HOW THEY LANDED. THEY AREN'T ROTATED OR CHARGE ONCE THEY LAND.

I agree. That's why the original says

You shake the dice, and slam the cup down onto the table, hiding the result.

The dice have landed, and no one is changing anything. The result under the cup is described as "At least one of the dice is a 2.", meaning any of the 11 possible 2 dice combinations containing at least one 2 could be under the cup.

[Alan Mendelson]

Now you're just grasping at straws eddie.

Rob changed his position and agreed it was 1/6. So did regnis. Redietz was the one who first suggested the peeker only needed to see one die at a time.

Secondly when one of the dice is showing a two it means one of the dice is showing one of its six sides of which there is a two.

And that leaves another die with six sides.

All along you math guys have been altering reality to get your 1/11 to fit as the answer.

And to further show your vulnerability now you point out I bet the Bonus Craps bet. Yes, throw out your diversions all you want. You're done. I'm also done. And happy new year.

[a2a3dseddie]

Now you're just grasping at straws eddie.

Rob changed his position and agreed it was 1/6. So did regnis. Redietz was the one who first suggested the peeker only needed to see one die at a time.

Secondly when one of the dice is showing a two it means one of the dice is showing one of its six sides of which there is a two.

And that leaves another die with six sides.

All along you math guys have been altering reality to get your 1/11 to fit as the answer.

And to further show your vulnerability now you point out I bet the Bonus Craps bet. Yes, throw out your diversions all you want. You're done. I'm also done. And happy new year.

You don't even have straws to grasp, Alan.

Yes, Rob changed his position because that was the only way you would allow him to come back and you needed support from someone... anyone.

regnis has always said your modified question leads to a 1/6 answer.

redietz has never said the answer is 1/6. He, like Rob maintains there could be more than 1 interpretation of the problem.

The only person trying to alter reality is YOU with your magical spinners, setting one die aside, rerolling 1 die, maintaining the peeker only sees 1 die, saying it's ok to rotate 1 die but not the other etc. etc.

Over these last 3 years, people have shown you mathematically how it's 1/11, by example through the Wizard's Youtube video, actually performing the question (mickeycrimm) with 2 dice, a cup and hundreds of rolls and countless people have even tried using basic common sense.

You are immune to all of it.

Sorry but I really can't get past that a die only has six sides.

Apology accepted.

Happy New Year to you too.

P.S. As far as throwing out diversions go, here's one last question for you. I posted it on another thread that you conveniently chose to ignore.

You've shot craps for years. During all that time, did you ever "press" bets when a shooter "got hot"?

From what you've posted in the past, we know you like to bet the longshot Bonus Craps Bets like the Fire Bet and the Small/Tall/All.

During the 18 yos in a row, you never thought to throw just $5 on the yo? You didn't think you were in the middle of a once in a (several quintillion) lifetime streak?

[MisterV]

During the 18 yos in a row, you never thought to throw just $5 on the yo? You didn't think you were in the middle of a once in a (several quintillion) lifetime streak?

No, he never thought that because the whole "eighteen yo's in a row" thing never happened.

He was / is lying, insane, or mentally impaired to continue to maintain it happened in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Of course, that's nothing new with alan, is it?

[LarryS]

imagine if a few people at the table decided to parlay their bets for 4-5 rolls in a row. I mean after seeing the first 10 rolls....they see that the dude is either controlling the dice or has a pact with the devil.... just put 10 dollars on the yo and let it ride for 4 rolls in a row...30k...not bad

[Alan Mendelson]

During the 18 yos in a row, you never thought to throw just $5 on the yo? You didn't think you were in the middle of a once in a (several quintillion) lifetime streak?

No, he never thought that because the whole "eighteen yo's in a row" thing never happened.

He was / is lying, insane, or mentally impaired to continue to maintain it happened in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Of course, that's nothing new with alan, is it?

What evidence to the contrary? Do you mean the long odds against it happening? That's not evidence.

[Alan Mendelson]

imagine if a few people at the table decided to parlay their bets for 4-5 rolls in a row. I mean after seeing the first 10 rolls....they see that the dude is either controlling the dice or has a pact with the devil.... just put 10 dollars on the yo and let it ride for 4 rolls in a row...30k...not bad

If I knew the next roll was going to be an eleven I would have bet the max of $2000.

In the meantime APs claim they never make center table bets. That would be an AP sin.

[LarryS]

An AP, an Iranian housewife with no understanding of craps, a person with Downs syndrome, a 12 year old child, a martian,,,,,all seeing the first 10 elevens,, would make a bet.

[MisterV]

What evidence to the contrary? Do you mean the long odds against it happening? That's not evidence.

I threw you a bone at WoV when you first claimed to see this, the eighteenth coming of jesus; I posited that there MIGHT be some borderline reasonable explanation for your actually believing you saw what you claim you saw, but since then I think it's just another one in your line of ham-fisted trolls.

As far as whether the math is evidence: you bet it is.

Of greater probative value is the dearth of any corroboration, either from players or the crew.

Had it actually happened word would have gotten around, and quickly.

[mickeycrimm]

An AP, an Iranian housewife with no understanding of craps, a person with Downs syndrome, a 12 year old child, a martian,,,,,all seeing the first 10 elevens,, would make a bet.

I wouldn't. Dice don't have memories.

[LarryS]

thats in a random roll....but this obviously has to be an "expert" dice controller. After the first 10 yOS, A MORON would be able to see that its prudent to throw 10 dollars on yo, and then parlay the winnings.

sometimes chanting the mantra that dice dont have memory is the mantra of a fool if an impossible trend is in progress and there is no end in sight...in this case 10 bucks makes you over 2k on 2 rolls......worth a gamble .

only a fool would stand by and mentally document 18 yos in a row without placing a bet. Not a single red chip.....not even a single white chip....nope....just stand and watch opportunity pass you by, 12 rolls, 13 rolls, 14 rolls...all yo....and not a move to open the wallet.

[MisterV]

I wonder if this was at the same "cursed" table that showed an inordinate amount of nines that alan gave his thrilling expose' about?