Question for your Christmas Dinner Guests

[Alan Mendelson]

Larry we're dealing with two standard dice.

If I shake two dice im a cup and peak at the result and tell you truthfully that at least one die is showing a two, what's the chance or odds both are showing a two.

There are two answers to consider:
A. 1/6
B. 1/11

What's your answer?

[MisterV]

Alan, watching you with math puzzles is like watching a blind man try to solve a Rubik's cube.

[LarryS]

what if you have double vision from the meds you are taking, and its actually showing a one

[quahaug]

"If I shake two dice im a cup and peak at the result and tell you truthfully that at least one die is showing a two, what's the chance or odds both are showing a two". Alan. Shame on you. You changed the question.... Again. You asked a completely different question from your original one... come on man!

[Alan Mendelson]

Larry what I did in this new thread is present the problem from the position of the guy who actually looks at the dice. It seems that everyone agrees that the answer is 1/6 for the guy who looks at the dice.

But the answer according to most of the members of this forum for the guy who doesn't look is 1/11.

So I am asking: how is it possible that for someone who looks the answer is 1/6, but the answer for someone who doesn't look but is given the information is 1/11?

Those who say the answer is 1/11 base their answer on one fact: it is not known which of the two dice is showing a 2.

So Larry I'm going to ask you: in a two dice problem does it matter which die is showing a 2 when we know at least one of the two dice is a 2?

[LarryS]

he is like a dude that walks up to you and says

"i have this great joke, its hysterical"

then just as he is 90 percent through it....says:

" wait wait wait..let me start over"

[LarryS]

its like the ..if a tree falls in a forest does it make a sound.

the person standing there says definately,,,the person not there says i wasnt there so what can I say....i cant take your word for it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Never mind Larry.

You remind me of a Jewish grandmother. You answer a question with a question.

[mickeycrimm]

So Larry I'm going to ask you: in a two dice problem does it matter which die is showing a 2 when we know at least one of the two dice is a 2?

Which die is showing the two?

[Alan Mendelson]

So Larry I'm going to ask you: in a two dice problem does it matter which die is showing a 2 when we know at least one of the two dice is a 2?

Which die is showing the two?

Does it matter in a two dice problem? This is what I don't understand. And I'm not alone.

But explain this: if I can see which die is a 2 the answer is 1/6. But if I am told one die is a 2 but don't see it myself the answer is 1/11?????

[mickeycrimm]

This is what I don't understand. And I'm not alone. But explain this: if I can see which die is a 2 the answer is 1/6. But if I am told one die is a 2 but don't see it myself the answer is 1/11?????

If you see both dice but can't distinguish between the two the answer is 1 in 11. If you are rolling two white dice out of a cup do you know exactly which one the 2 is on? It's not good enough to say the die on the left is on a 2 or the die on the right is on a 2. If the dice are color coded it's easy. There are 11 combinations where at least one of the dice is showing a two. If the red die is on two then this is what is possible:

Red 2 Green 1
Red 2 Green 2
Red 2 Green 3
Red 2 Green 4
Red 2 Green 5
Red 2 Green 6

These are the combinations that are not possible when the red die is on a 2:

Green 2 Red 1
Green 2 Red 3
Green 2 Red 4
Green 2 Red 5
Green 2 Red 6

It's being able to eliminate these 5 combinations that gives the answer 1 in 6. If you don't have enough information to eliminate them then the answer is 1 in 11.

[mickeycrimm]

duplicate post

[LarryS]

thats ridiculous. So if there are 2 white dice in a cup together and you observe one to show "2", the answer is 1 in 11. But if they are 2 different colors then its 1 in6.

wtf

what if the dice are in 2 different cups...they are both white....and you lift one cup and see a "2".......since they are both white...you are tellig me there is a 1 out of 11 chance of a 2 in the other cup?

whats the difference if they are in the same cup, or 4 inches apart from each other in seperate cups.

[mickeycrimm]

thats ridiculous. So if there are 2 white dice in a cup together and you observe one to show "2", the answer is 1 in 11. But if they are 2 different colors then its 1 in6.

wtf

what if the dice are in 2 different cups...they are both white....and you lift one cup and see a "2".......since they are both white...you are tellig me there is a 1 out of 11 chance of a 2 in the other cup?

whats the difference if they are in the same cup, or 4 inches apart from each other in seperate cups.

It's not my problem that you don't understand it.

[Alan Mendelson]

The problem is actually that the 1/11 answer does not apply to this question. I've said this all along. The 1/11 answer applies to this different question:

"How many combinations of two dice show at least one 2?" Answer 11. "Of those 11 combinations how many show 2-2?" Answer 1.

All this time the wrong answer has been applied to the wrong question.

What I have done is shown you that for the person who actually looks at the two dice the answer is 1/6.

And I've asked you if the person who looks and the answer is 1/6, how can the person who is given the information but doesn't look say the answer is 1/11?

The main reason for the 1/11 answer has been "we don't know which die has the two."

Well guess what? The person who looks snd sees doesn't care which die is showing a 2 so why should the person who doesn't look care which die is showing a 2?

Now if you had two dice in a cup and shook them and peeked at the result and you came up with the 1/6 answer, but someone told you the answer was 1/11 what would you say?

The biggest tell that the 1/11 answer is the wrong answer to this question is that the Wizard had to assign two values to a die to get 1/11 but you can't change a die in reality. Once a die lands that's the value.

I'm glad Larry has joined the list of those who say the answer is 1/6.

[Alan Mendelson]

thats ridiculous. So if there are 2 white dice in a cup together and you observe one to show "2", the answer is 1 in 11. But if they are 2 different colors then its 1 in6.

wtf

what if the dice are in 2 different cups...they are both white....and you lift one cup and see a "2".......since they are both white...you are tellig me there is a 1 out of 11 chance of a 2 in the other cup?

whats the difference if they are in the same cup, or 4 inches apart from each other in seperate cups.

It's not my problem that you don't understand it.

You mickeycrimm and everyone else: I've asked you to take two dice and do the problem yourself. Without changing the face of any die show me how you get 1/11.

This is why my tag line says I can't get past a die having six sides. The Wizard needs a die to have more than six sides to get the 1/11 answer. You wont find that in our real world when you have two physical dice.

Again look at the problem from the view of the guy who peeks at the dice. How can the other guy say it's 1/11 when the peeker knows it's 1/6? Explain.

[mickeycrimm]

The problem is actually that the 1/11 answer does not apply to this question. I've said this all along. The 1/11 answer applies to this different question:

"How many combinations of two dice show at least one 2?" Answer 11. "Of those 11 combinations how many show 2-2?" Answer 1.

All this time the wrong answer has been applied to the wrong question.

What I have done is shown you that for the person who actually looks at the two dice the answer is 1/6.

And I've asked you if the person who looks and the answer is 1/6, how can the person who is given the information but doesn't look say the answer is 1/11?

The main reason for the 1/11 answer has been "we don't know which die has the two."

Well guess what? The person who looks snd sees doesn't care which die is showing a 2 so why should the person who doesn't look care which die is showing a 2?

Now if you had two dice in a cup and shook them and peeked at the result and you came up with the 1/6 answer, but someone told you the answer was 1/11 what would you say?

The biggest tell that the 1/11 answer is the wrong answer to this question is that the Wizard had to assign two values to a die to get 1/11 but you can't change a die in reality. Once a die lands that's the value.

I'm glad Larry has joined the list of those who say the answer is 1/6.

Alan, you are all over the board with this post. The original question can't be the wrong question because it was the original question. You are trying to change the question to fit your answer but you still have problems. Do you remember that little experiment I did? If you do the same experiment you will be sadly surprised. I took the dice cup and rolled until "at least one of the dice was a 2." Every time one of the dice was at least a 2 I made a mark on a piece of paper. Every time the other die was also a 2 I made a mark on a different piece of paper. Through 100 events the other die was a 2 just nine times. That's an average of 11 and a little change. The next time I did it the average was 10. You and Larry need to do your own experiments. The results won't back up your answer of 1 in 6.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey, your statistics don't answer the question. Frankly rolling 2-2 comes 1/36 times.

When you shake a cup with two dice and you look and you see thay one die is a two, what are the odds that the other die is also a two? It's one out of six, isn't it? There are only six sides on the other die, right?

If it's 1/6 for you, why is the answer also not 1/6 for someone else?

Don't tell me it's because the other person didn't see which die is showing a two-- because when you looked it didn't matter which die showed a two.

[LarryS]

For those that want to put your money where your mouth is..... how about this. i shake 2 dice in a cup......i peek at one die and see any number between 1-6. I have your most trusted friend sitting enxt to me observing and seeing what I see. I call you up on the the phone and offer you this great bet.

I will bet 10 dollars that the number on the other die matches the one we observed by peeking...If I am right you pay me 9-1.( a value down from 11-1)...a bargain.

And lest say we repeated this 1000 times......who would have the most money t the end....me who gave the discounted rate of 9-1 rather than 11-1...or you who received very favorable odds if you believe 11-1 is true value.

[RS__]

For those that want to put your money where your mouth is..... how about this. i shake 2 dice in a cup......i peek at one die and see any number between 1-6. I have your most trusted friend sitting enxt to me observing and seeing what I see. I call you up on the the phone and offer you this great bet.

I will bet 10 dollars that the number on the other die matches the one we observed by peeking...If I am right you pay me 9-1.( a value down from 11-1)...a bargain.

And lest say we repeated this 1000 times......who would have the most money t the end....me who gave the discounted rate of 9-1 rather than 11-1...or you who received very favorable odds if you believe 11-1 is true value.

Nobody thinks the true value is 11-1 in that scenario.

Next.