Originally Posted by
Rob.Singer
Let me take the strain (& mystery perhaps?) out of this conversation by saying this: There is no such thing as a "positive" machine unless the player leaves the thing with a profit. Playing video poker for real results is a far different event than theorizing about it before you sit down to play. That's why I've never been afraid of and have always consistently beaten games that do not theoretically calculate out to 100%+. Scared money never won a dime. It is very, very true.
As for those who claim they have the "advantage" a single hand on a vp machine that is a 100%+ game, I'll set them straight also. Let's begin with the all-important concept of the coin flip--a single flip so we can relate it to a single hand of vp. If the house chooses heads and you have tails for a $1 bet, no one has the advantage on this flip. But say the house gives you 10:1 odds where if it comes up in your favor you win 10 bucks, and if it doesn't you lose a dollar. Who has the ACTUAL advantage on this particular flip? That's right--NO ONE DOES. It is still a 50-50 proposition. The amount it pays IF it comes up in anyone's favor is of no consequence prior to the flip since it is all theoretical at that point.
Now onto the hot topic of video poker and a single dealt/drawn upon hand. You're playing an $21,568 progressive royal dollar 10/7DBP machine, which is well into the positive area as we all know. Talk about getting an AP's pants wet! But you are only playing ONE hand. I know, such a sad, sad thought for the many addicted AP's out there who live in total denial.
So who actually has the advantage for this one single hand of vp? Well, the theorists who live on probability theory--which is the #1 rope-'em-in tactic used by casinos against them--will claim it is THEY who hold the advantage over this monstrously positive game. But in reality--that's IN REALITY--they are only fooling themselves and are at the same time giving their egos a huge, but false boost.
Here's why: Since >50% of all vp hands are losers, the advantage for this one hand lies squarely with the casino. It's the same thing as if there were no payout except for the royal flush, and the royal were a staggerring $10milliom. For one hand, who has the advantage? Guess who....as another beautiful property begins to be built from video poker profits on the Strip. Of course, if I were a theorist looking for a reason to play on and on and on until I went broke, hit the royal (either royal, that is) or my wife came in after me using every curse word in the book, I'd say something dumb like "But gee honey, I was playing a +$67/hour game or whatever". Then his wife snaps back: "So tell me, genius, how many gallons of gasoline can I buy with THOSE phantom bucks--I suppose just as many as you claimed I could buy on your last 10 visits?"
That concludes today's lesson on simple common sene, and why it is so important to understand the REALITY of playing video poker rather than playing probability theory with each and every hand.