I just realized I haven't played more than 2 hands of live baccarat in my life. How many rounds are dealt an hour assuming 3 players? How often do they shuffle? Does an 8 deck shoe get dealt down to the last 10 cards? Half a deck? One deck?
Mdawg/Wynn/AP seem to always talk about playing one or two shoes a day. That can't take 4 hours, right?
The problem for baccarat is the low variance compared to something like video poker. You get lucky with a run of quads or a royal flush and you are way up at video poker. The house don't need the long term to win.
If you had 100 baccarat players playing 1000 hands per week each at the same bet would the house ever have a losing week? I don't think so. If it were 100 "trenders" would it make a difference in the house earn? I don't think so as long as they all played 1000 hands.
And I think if you had a table full of trenders they wouldn't agree on when to bet and when not to bet.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
His claims are quite specific.
He played $1000 per hand at Baccarat four hours per day over thirty days straight.
His expected loss was according to his host -$70,000 but he is up +$50,000.
He was comped full RFB for this entire time at this same property he played but didn't qualify for any promo chips OR FREEPLAY based on the last 18 Months Theo.
He didn't do this based on a system or any Advantage play but on intuition. He isn't claiming luck because he says this is what MDawg regularly achieves (If he is claiming to have control over luck... Well, that's kind of an oxymoron)
He also isn't claiming he got lucky on this one extended trip but has had similar luck on EVERY TRIP he has taken in the recent two years such that MDawg never loses.
He also claims to have been banned in the distant past for card counting Blackjack which implies/explicitly stated he has AP tendency and I have repeatedly stated his claims of winning aren't what I have a problem with. It's how he claims he wins (no Advantage play, just pluck his money down and he intuitively knows he is right).
If MDawg claimed to have an AP move he could not take the chance on exposing perhaps some people would question if he truly did but not question the possibility of profiting consistently
For example I have a multi-carding operation I consistently make profit on 99% of the time and on a daily basis. And the only reason I lose 1% of the time is due to casinos getting wise and reneging on offers.
Last edited by Darkoz; 11-23-2020 at 11:29 AM.
Depends on what style of baccarat, there's basically two kinds mini bac where the dealer deals and flips the cards, and then there's MIDI where the players bend and peel and handle the cards. It's anywhere from roughly a fast game would be one minute per hand to a few minutes per hand depending on how many players are at the table and the style of the game. A fast shoe would be an hour and a half at best and a slow shoe would be every bit of two and a half hours. If you have several problems during the shoe, several times a pit person has to come over and approve side bet payouts, people coming up changing money and more, happens all the time throughout the shoe on busier tables.
There is always a mean average of 80 hands per shoe in the United States with 8 deck shoes. Most casinos will have 13 or 14 cards in the back of the shoe where the stop card is placed and then one more hand is dealt when the stop card comes out. A few casinos have during the past several years just cut approximately 10 to 20 cards in the back of the shoe but that's a few casinos compared to the majority.
Hope that helps.
The mathematics of negative expectation are as solid as physics.
If MDawg claims he can fly using nothing but his own arms, no external means (no jetpack, no airplane, he just claims he can wave his arms and fly through the sky at cloud like altitudes) is there any documentation or even video evidence that will convince you of those claims?
If he supplied a video of himself waving his arms and lifting off the ground would that be enough for you to feel he wasn't lying or would you assume some type of photographic manipulation?
While the math behind negative expectation gambling is somewhat hidden and deceptive to the untrained eye it is rock solid.
Short of you actually meeting up with MDawg to witness him first hand rising off the ground waving his arms(and still checking for tomfoolery like being held by thin wires) you would not believe him.
And short of watching him play for extended times at Baccarat and winning as he claims, there is nothing that can convince me he is truthful
Which of MDawg's claims that you listed in your post #5866 can be proven false by mathematics?
Here are the specific claims that you listed...did I miss any?
Last edited by coach belly; 11-23-2020 at 12:58 PM.
DrakSmellyOz ended up homeless. DarkSmellyOz lost everything. DarkSmellyOz got taken in to buy some trash penny stock. Therefore, DarkSmellyOz must be a failure at everything. Is this what you mean?
Wrong!
MDawg could have lost all his bets which meant anyone mirroring the bets would have lost as well.
And since MDawg challenge was that even if he was proven wrong he would pay no wager, such conditions made no sense.
I don't know what to tell you Coachbelly except if you truly believe MDawg claims I now understand how people like Bernie Madoff stood in business so long
They would have lost some of their gambling stake, but not the bet that they could outperform MDawg...so it would have been a push on the bet if they copied his plays.
There was no requirement that they play anything, but they could not be assured of pushing unless they mirrored his bets.
But they still could have watched him play, which you claim he will not permit.
Put the $50K up and watch him play, that's what he offered months ago.
I have no stake in MDawg or Madoff, but I'd like to see the doubters put up or shut up.
OH yeah, I forgot to add that I'd still like you to explain how math can disprove any of the MDawg claims you listed.
If you can't, then does that make you a liar?
Last edited by coach belly; 11-23-2020 at 01:27 PM.
No, that was not the challenge.
The challenge was that MDawg would wager fifty large at Baccarat while the other player ALSO wagered fifty large at Baccarat and whoever had more money at the end was the winner and the winner got nothing for winning the wager from MDawg.
It was a stupid wager
But for someone like yourself you could have easily made a lot of money.
Since you believe in MDawg then what you should have done is mirrored his bets and since you believe he always wins then you could do nothing but win thanks toDawgs wager.
So why don't you put up or shut up. Put up fifty grand to mirror MDawg wagers at Baccarat and walk away with easy thousands
You are incorrect. There was no stipulation that the challenger must play Baccarat.
The terms were that MDawg must only play Bac, the challenger could play anything, except sports betting.
Both players to start with $50K, whoever had more money at the end was the winner of the bet...that much you have correct.
Your opinion that it was a stupid wager is irrelevant, it was an invitation to watch MDawg play/win/lose...which is something you claimed earlier that he would never permit.
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