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Thread: The WoV Thread

  1. #5941
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by jdaewoo View Post

    I clearly stated that it was plausible, and not even that unlikely and quoted a probability of 16.68% via simulation. Which part confuses you?

    Originally Posted by coach belly
    If yes, then why the need to break the total play down arbitrarily into sessions, rather than consider the entirety of the play as one session?
    There's nothing arbitrary about it.

    MDawg says "I'm a winner at -EV Baccarat over the course of a month!" The math says this isn't terribly unlikely. 16.88% making normal assumptions
    MDawg says "I win every single day for a month." The math says this is very unlikely. 80 billion to 1 if you take him almost literally (29/30 winners). 1 million to one if you assume he means 25/30 days.
    MDawg says "I win every single day for 10 years". The math says he's a moron and a liar.
    And the fact that he's also a California flake strongly suggests he's a moron and a liar. Which brings up this point: how stoopid does anyone have to be NOT to know this flailing idiot wynnpleasure is not the foolish MDawg? It is no different than how Alan and AndrewG shamed himself.
    Neither one of them, was as subtle, as your GOAT Jerry Logan sock

  2. #5942
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    An actual contest would settle nothing as either side could win a meaningless SHORT TERM contest. That is why there are not any takers, as people are not willing to bet on what amounts to a coin flip. Real AP's don't get involved without some kind of real edge over an extended period of time.
    I don't think you understand MDawg's challenge, it has nothing to do with future play.

    The APs are convinced that MDawg could not have won as he claims because of the math.

    So that's their edge, because any valid documentation of his extended past play will prove that he lost.
    Getting valid documentation from actual casino personnel that could be trusted is an impossibility. Who in their right mind would bet any real money on something like that, unless they already know ahead of time who you can be bought off?
    Last edited by BoSox; 11-24-2020 at 04:55 PM.

  3. #5943
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    I'm confused as to why you won't give a yes or no answer.
    Probably because you were asking a cunty rhetorical question. I gave you the benefit of the doubt thinking you were just confused, but you were just being a cunt. Lesson learned.

    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    That's your assumption, but that doesn't define MDawg's daily play.
    It's pretty fucking close. He said his "host" has him clocked at 70k theo. 70000/.011/1200/30 = 176 hands/day.
    70000 = theo
    .011 = baccarat theo multiplier
    1200 = average MDawg bet
    30 = days in a month

    So redo the binomial distributions assuming 176 hands/day instead of 240. I'm not doing it myself because you were such a cunt about the cunty rhetorical question you kept asking.

    MDawg is lying, but anyone who puts up 50k for his challenge is a moron for reasons made clear by others.

  4. #5944
    Seriously you guys are fucked up. You guys are fucking either high on drugs were you just motherfucking so bored and so lonely you got just tired of watching porn and now you're into this shit on the internet!

  5. #5945
    Now look here...you're the cunt for answering a yes-no question like a double-talking cunt.

    Originally Posted by jdaewoo View Post
    So redo the binomial distributions assuming 176 hands/day instead of 240.
    That's pointless because he didn't play 176 hands/day for 30 days.

    Here's what he wrote...

    and am net ahead some additional twenty grand at the moment, representing just the win at this third resort....at this resort as of today, I have put in some 71 hours in play, at a 1200 average, with a theoretical loss of some seventy thousand dollars.

    You don't know how many days play the figures above represent, the host clocked him for resort #3, not the whole trip.

    And you can't calculate the probability of being ahead for any day unless you know the number of hands he played that day...your assumptions are not fucking close.

    But you can calculate the total number of hands he played over the 71-hour session, and you already explained that the math for that session proves that it's plausible for him to have won for that session.

  6. #5946
    The reason some of you think casino personnel may be bought off...is you know nothing to speak of about casinos!

    Nothing! Seriously sad shit Sherlocks!

  7. #5947
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    Why don't one of you offer to mirror bank an agreed upon number of sessions against MDawg? He can still play at any casino of his choosing. You will just have a witness present.
    Because MDawg won't agree to people witnessing his play. He wants the "proof" to be statements from the casino via his host, that can be manipulated and phony. He doesn't want actual witnesses.

    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    I'm amazed that so many people take any of it seriously.
    I see your point, but personally I just don't like these phony claims of huge successes via gambling that are obviously phony because they defy the mathematics of gambling. I have never called out anyone that I don't beleive is doing what they claim as long as the math works. THAT is the very low bar that must be met.

    And frankly I believe AP's and people known for their expertise in gambling mathematics have not only a right, but a responsibility to call out shit that just can't be. And that is why this case of MDawg is so frustrating to me. Why isn't Wizard calling this out? He has called out 18 y.o.'s in a row and Singers progressive claims and almost immediately calls out any claims involving martingales. This is right there with those things. It defies the math. The very math that Mike made his name and reputation with. And now he is not only remaining silent, but suspending people who do call out MDawg with very questionable infractions. I mean it really appears to be that he has now escalated to "protecting" MDawg and these false claims.

    I have been through this whole thing before on Norms blackjack form. A forum owner, who is all about the math, inexplicably protecting a member making claims that defy the math. I don't know exactly what is going on other than these forum owners have a different agenda...whatever generates more traffic for their forum, even at the expense of the math they themselves believe in.
    (Why is it ok, to go right to the gay shit, when it is not applicable. Bosox is not gay. He was married for decades until his wife passed away earlier this year. I mean, just grow the fuck up Wynnpervert you complete asshole.)

    Okay! He is not really gay, but I did research it and I was told he was most likely bisexual! Which means he sucks cocks as well as he bends over and allows men to fuck his asshole, he justifies cocks in his ass by believing his asshole is a pussy and the men fucking him believe they're fucking a woman. So I understand what you're saying he's not completely gay but he is bisexual. I'm sure he occasionally fucks a gender born female to allow himself to believe he is still not really gay. It's cool bro.

  8. #5948
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Originally Posted by Wynnpleasure775 View Post
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    By the way, it appears Axel is sitting this one out like he often does. Probably too busy making money on an opportunity. And the rest of the people asking logical questions are suspended. Even Dietz, who even in his own way sees through the MDawg charade is silenced.

    Hopefully someone figures out why the Wiz is allowing MDawg to make him look like a puppet. And it can’t be someone they call bitter Boz as the only one who sees this.

    As a banned member or as a regular poster over the years, something doesn’t smell right here.

    What does MDawg have over the Wizard to make him act as he has?
    Your banned? Really? LOL! Mr Perfect is banned! Fucking A right!
    At least we benefit here considerably at VCT because of that outcome, it's their loss.
    (Why is it ok, to go right to the gay shit, when it is not applicable. Bosox is not gay. He was married for decades until his wife passed away earlier this year. I mean, just grow the fuck up Wynnpervert you complete asshole.)

    Okay! He is not really gay, but I did research it and I was told he was most likely bisexual! Which means he sucks cocks as well as he bends over and allows men to fuck his asshole, he justifies cocks in his ass by believing his asshole is a pussy and the men fucking him believe they're fucking a woman. So I understand what you're saying he's not completely gay but he is bisexual. I'm sure he occasionally fucks a gender born female to allow himself to believe he is still not really gay. It's cool bro.

  9. #5949
    If MDawg said he won everyday for 30 days straight he's full of shit. It don't matter if he plays 100 hands one day, 200 hands the next, 50 the next day, 300 the next day, 60 the next, etc. To have a win in all 30 sample spaces is bullshit. He's telling you he never experiences negative variance no matter how small or large the sample space is. That's total unadulterated bullshit.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  10. #5950
    Is that what Town Pump really teaches you?

  11. #5951
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If MDawg said he won everyday for 30 days straight he's full of shit.
    When/where did MD say/write that he won every day for 30 days straight?

    That's sounds to me like the doubters' false premise.

    But if we assume that he did claim to win every day for 30 days straight,
    and the odds against that are a billion to one,
    then if MDawg is willing to bet that he did win for 30 days straight,
    and is offering to prove it and accept even money for a billion-to-one shot,
    then isn't that a massive +EV bet for anyone who takes the bet?

  12. #5952
    One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider.

  13. #5953
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If MDawg said he won everyday for 30 days straight he's full of shit.
    When/where did MD say/write that he won every day for 30 days straight?

    That's sounds to me like the doubters' false premise.

    But if we assume that he did claim to win every day for 30 days straight,
    and the odds against that are a billion to one,
    then if MDawg is willing to bet that he did win for 30 days straight,
    and is offering to prove it and accept even money for a billion-to-one shot,
    then isn't that a massive +EV bet for anyone who takes the bet?
    The huge possibility of a con job where falsified documents being shown and employees brought off has been explained multiple times to you.

    The fact you ignore the math and ignore what most everyone on here is telling you means you really can't be trusted.

    The fact you keep saying MDawg never said he won lifetime against Baccarat even though people on here have seen it (and even though you were part of that conversation) shows you can't be trusted

    No one moves forward with a wager when one of the parties can't be trusted.

    No one is going to risk $50,000 with such an untrusted source that can falsify his claims.

    And I am not going to be having our little meetup either since I am certain now you will just report whatever suits you, truth be damned.

    If anyone wants to say I am not a man of my word, I really don't give a fuck. Take me to small claims court

  14. #5954
    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    The fact you ignore the math and ignore what most everyone on here is telling you means you really can't be trusted.
    The math is based on a false premise, that MDawg claims to have won each day for 30 days straight.

    How can math disprove any of the claims in the current challenge (listed below) ?

    I can confirm that all the following are true:

    -I have been in Vegas continuously since very early October.

    -I have won – net ahead – the exact figures as posted at TruePassage – at both of the resorts we were at before this one, and am net ahead some additional twenty grand at the moment, representing just the win at this third resort.

    -That at this resort as of today, I have put in some 71 hours in play, at a 1200 average, with a theoretical loss of some seventy thousand dollars.

    -That I have played almost every single day at all three resorts, pretty much every day other than check in and check out days.

    -That all of the suites, room, food, beverage, and spa, have been comp’ed, to the tune of some fifty thousand dollars of comp’ed goods and services.

    -That I also got a 1000 shopping spree.


    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    you keep saying MDawg never said he won lifetime against Baccarat
    What I have said is that MD never claimed to have beaten Baccarat in the long-term. It's possible for him to be ahead for his cumulative play up to this point...and math can't prove otherwise.

    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    No one moves forward with a wager when one of the parties can't be trusted.
    Both parties would agree that the arbiters are qualified to validate any testimony and documentation, and to abide by their decisions. That's what arbitration is all about. If you can't agree on arbiters that you can both trust, then it's a stalemate. But the idea that MDawg can organize a conspiracy to fool the arbiters is simply your fantasy, and a tactic to weasel out of giving him the opportunity to prove his claims.

    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    I am not going to be having our little meetup
    What a shocker...nobody saw that coming from the outset.

    But we'll see...AC's not that big of a town, and there are limited styles available in those masks you like to wear. I'm confident I can spot one, with or without any help.

  15. #5955
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If MDawg said he won everyday for 30 days straight he's full of shit.
    When/where did MD say/write that he won every day for 30 days straight?

    That's sounds to me like the doubters' false premise.

    But if we assume that he did claim to win every day for 30 days straight,
    and the odds against that are a billion to one,
    then if MDawg is willing to bet that he did win for 30 days straight,
    and is offering to prove it and accept even money for a billion-to-one shot,
    then isn't that a massive +EV bet for anyone who takes the bet?
    Coach, let's not forget there are THREE sides fully involved in all of this Mdawg and the nonbelievers that would be involved in the actual betting itself, but the third side the casinos that were involved in the bet and they themselves have the MOST to win in the matter. One certainty is that those casinos involved would not be neutral in any of this wagering bought off or not, and as a matter of fact, the nonbelievers would have almost no chance at all to bribe the casinos. Why? The casinos are always looking out for their own best interest period. True or not what better way to increase the gullible public interest and dumb board members than to enhance a particular player's trip reports exponentially? What do they have to lose? Nothing, and everything to gain by creating a hero.

  16. #5956
    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    The huge possibility of a con job where falsified documents being shown and employees brought off has been explained multiple times to you.

    The fact you ignore the math and ignore what most everyone on here is telling you means you really can't be trusted.

    The fact you keep saying MDawg never said he won lifetime against Baccarat even though people on here have seen it (and even though you were part of that conversation) shows you can't be trusted

    No one moves forward with a wager when one of the parties can't be trusted.

    No one is going to risk $50,000 with such an untrusted source that can falsify his claims.

    And I am not going to be having our little meetup either since I am certain now you will just report whatever suits you, truth be damned.

    If anyone wants to say I am not a man of my word, I really don't give a fuck. Take me to small claims court


    Imagine this fucking asshole Darkey giving a lecture on trust.

    Other than Tasha, you would have to dig a hell of a deep hole to find someone else who trusts Darkey. (not that their wouldn't be another asshole just as big and the same color as Tasha on this site that might agree)

    Hope your ban at WOV ends soon. You seem to be spending too much time here.

  17. #5957
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    what better way to increase the gullible public interest and dumb board members than to enhance a particular player's trip reports exponentially? What do they have to lose? Nothing, and everything to gain by creating a hero.
    I'm dismissing the scenario you concocted above as delusional.

    Even if the wager was a gentlemen's bet, the doubters would claim bribery, fakery, etc, and decline to accept.

    How do I know that? Because MDawg already proposed a gentlemen's bet months ago, and the doubters declined to accept.

  18. #5958
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    The huge possibility of a con job where falsified documents being shown and employees brought off has been explained multiple times to you.

    The fact you ignore the math and ignore what most everyone on here is telling you means you really can't be trusted.

    The fact you keep saying MDawg never said he won lifetime against Baccarat even though people on here have seen it (and even though you were part of that conversation) shows you can't be trusted

    No one moves forward with a wager when one of the parties can't be trusted.

    No one is going to risk $50,000 with such an untrusted source that can falsify his claims.

    And I am not going to be having our little meetup either since I am certain now you will just report whatever suits you, truth be damned.

    If anyone wants to say I am not a man of my word, I really don't give a fuck. Take me to small claims court


    Imagine this fucking asshole Darkey giving a lecture on trust.

    Other than Tasha, you would have to dig a hell of a deep hole to find someone else who trusts Darkey. (not that their wouldn't be another asshole just as big and the same color as Tasha on this site that might agree)

    Hope your ban at WOV ends soon. You seem to be spending too much time here.
    Yeah, let's give a lecture on trust.

    Over at WOV I gave a challenge where if I recognize you as a regular member of WOV you can watch me do an AP when an opportunity comes up and if I win $1000+ then you owe me dinner. If I fail to do so you owe me dinner plus a trip report of what was witnessed (with the implication that the report would be honestly undertaken and Coach clearly can't do that)

    Clearly a friendly wager and not some ridiculous$50,000 shenanigans.

    So how honest am I? If I wanted an absolute guaranteed method of winning my little AP challenge, I would have it you follow me collecting freeplay from my multiple cards. Trust me I have thousands of dollars of freeplay in a single day so it would be impossible for me not to win at least $1000.

    But that would not be in the true spirit of the wager so I am only saying AP opportunities where there are true wagers and risk of losing.

    Recognizing of course that variance could make me look bad and I might owe someone dinner.

    Bottom line, my offer was reasonable, and for someone to watch actual play. Unlike the laughable MDawg challenge

  19. #5959
    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    with the implication that the report would be honestly undertaken and Coach clearly can't do that
    That's ridiculous.

    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    I have thousands of dollars of freeplay in a single day so it would be impossible for me not to win at least $1000.
    And that's ridiculous too.

    You can't substantiate that freeplay is money won.

  20. #5960
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    with the implication that the report would be honestly undertaken and Coach clearly can't do that
    That's ridiculous.

    Originally Posted by Darkoz View Post
    I have thousands of dollars of freeplay in a single day so it would be impossible for me not to win at least $1000.
    And that's ridiculous too.

    You can't substantiate that freeplay is money won.
    Maybe you feel that way but I can guarantee the money collected from Freeplay spends anywhere. And money that wasn’t in Oz or anyone that has FP pocket when they entered the casino.

    Then again maybe MD feels that way too and it’s why he doesn’t push for it.
    Last edited by The Boz; 11-25-2020 at 11:38 AM.

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